Rich over the Bills by 17

[The Wiz]

Talk about a brownout. For those who have a strong stomach you can head over to the "St. B over the Bills" thread and see how we could have won (by 8). They were beatable but it is time to move on.....

And it doesn't get any easier. The bad news is we have slipped to D-. The good news is with a win or a closer spread we can get back to D. Rich is a good team ( B+ ) Looks like NIT now (but still a chance for NCAA with a good finish ).....

Here is how we can beat them

...........................................#s to win

Offense

Slashline..............................7/16 / 1/3 / 2/3

Tot reb.................................35

TO.........................................12

Pts..........................................61

Defense

FG%.......................................42

FGM.........................................20

3pt%........................................32

Assists......................................13

TO..............................................15

Tot Reb (Rich)............................29

S Jones.......................................10pts

Anthony ......................................14pts

Allen.............................................3 FTM

...."....FG%..................................under 50%

Cline .............................................3 Reb

I try to set these formulas so they are doable for the Bills yet good enough to win. For those that follow the post game reviews , you know these work. Unfortunately, when the Bills don't make the numbers they lose.

Bottomline.....Let's break the pattern....Let's try to be leading after the first 4 mins instead of being down 10 and trying to catchup. Let's focus...stop letting the shot clock run down to the final seconds and then throw the ball away....focus....make the 1 footers...play 40 mins...avoid the 3 min lapse where we let down and let the opponent score a quick 10 and the game is over...try to make the slashline ...ie score some points......and most importantly...follow the rules in this bottomline paragraph. We have 2 games left (or 12 as kshoe would say)....Let's finish strong.

[slufan13]

Lunardi has moved Richmond into his "next 4 out" group. They need this game to have any shot. They'll be a tough matchup for us.

[billikenbill]

Just two more ugly blowouts and this season will be put out of its misery. There is no way we'll be competitive with the Spiders.

[The Wiz]

Talk about a brownout. For those who have a strong stomach you can head over to the "St. B over the Bills" thread and see how we could have won (by 8). They were beatable but it is time to move on.....

And it doesn't get any easier. The bad news is we have slipped to D-. The good news is with a win or a closer spread we can get back to D. Rich is a good team ( B+ ) Looks like NIT now (but still a chance for NCAA with a good finish ).....

Here is how we can beat them

...........................................#s to win

Offense

Slashline..............................7/16 / 1/3 / 2/3

Tot reb.................................35

TO.........................................12

Pts..........................................61

Defense

FG%.......................................42

FGM.........................................20

3pt%........................................32

Assists......................................13

TO..............................................15

Tot Reb (Rich)............................29

S Jones.......................................10pts

Anthony ......................................14pts

Allen.............................................3 FTM

...."....FG%..................................under 50%

Cline .............................................3 Reb

I try to set these formulas so they are doable for the Bills yet good enough to win. For those that follow the post game reviews , you know these work. Unfortunately, when the Bills don't make the numbers they lose.

Bottomline.....Let's break the pattern....Let's try to be leading after the first 4 mins instead of being down 10 and trying to catchup. Let's focus...stop letting the shot clock run down to the final seconds and then throw the ball away....focus....make the 1 footers...play 40 mins...avoid the 3 min lapse where we let down and let the opponent score a quick 10 and the game is over...try to make the slashline ...ie score some points......and most importantly...follow the rules in this bottomline paragraph. We have 2 games left (or 12 as kshoe would say)....Let's finish strong.

Another painful loss....painful because with an average game we could have won.

Let's look at the numbers..........

......................................#'s to win......................actual

Offense...............................................................................................#'s needed to make slashline

FG%...............................43.75% (7/16)...............35.........fail-............5 more baskets 3 twos + 2 threes=12pts

3pt%................................33.3..............................22........fail-

FT%.................................66.7%...........................75........pass

Tot Reb............................35..................................36.......pass

TO....................................12..................................14.......fail

Pts....................................61..................................51.......fail-

Defense

FG%.................................42...................................48........fail-.......an extra 3 FG....2 twos and 1 three=7pts

3pt%..................................33.3................................32.......fail

FGM..................................20....................................24.......fail-

assists...............................13....................................13.......pass

TO.....................................15......................................9.......double fail

Tot Reb..............................29.....................................32.....fail

S Jones..............................10 pts................................12.....fail

Anthony ..............................14pts...............................15......fail

Allen ...................................3 FTM...............................2.......pass

Allen....................................under 50% FG%..............55%...fail

Cline....................................3 Reb................................5.......fail-

So....missing 12pts on offense + 7pts on defense=19pts ....we should have won by 3

This time it was poor shooting mixed with some bad D....a little something for everyone.

A positive was we didn't exceed the spread.

On to the A-10 tourney where we can beat any team with just some average play. Trouble is, average has been scarce lately.

[majerus mojo]

Hate to say it since I appreciate all of the Wiz's work, but I'm tired of the "another game we could have won IF..." talk. We were not winning any of these games, because we are not good enough to do any of things you continue to point out. Poor shooting mixed with bad d? That's who we are

[BigMouthBilliken]

Hate to say it since I appreciate all of the Wiz's work, but I'm tired of the "another game we could have won IF..." talk. We were not winning any of these games, because we are not good enough to do any of things you continue to point out. Poor shooting mixed with bad d? That's who we are

Exactly. We could win any game with average play. Well, an average team can whip us with above average play. Simply put, we are awful and will lose the first day in Brooklyn

[Billikenboy]

Should we even show up?

[The Wiz]

Hate to say it since I appreciate all of the Wiz's work, but I'm tired of the "another game we could have won IF..." talk. We were not winning any of these games, because we are not good enough to do any of things you continue to point out. Poor shooting mixed with bad d? That's who we are

I hear you and share your frustration It's not easy to write about. However, I disagree "this is who we are". Last night the slashline showed 35% FG...22% 3pt. Those are not normal or average numbers even for a struggling Bills team. I could put up a slashline of 60/50/80 but that wouldn't be realistic. It wouldn't be a line that any team could do on a consistent basis. The slashlines and other stats are numbers we have done many times before. They are our averages or close to it..

So if that is the case , why does the computer show us losing by 17 and be pretty much right. What about the "averages" ? What about reversion to the mean? If you read my signature quote at the bottom of the page from Descartes it says ....we follow what is most probable". The computer sees the averages but also sees we don't put it all together. And therein lies the problem. It is not that we are not good enough. It is that we have not put it all together. If we really averaged 35% and 22% ...if we averaged 20 TOs over all the games...we would be a bad team. We would be in last place with no chance to win. But we don't and we aren't. We are in last place with a chance to win.... the next game and next year..

A baseball study done years ago tried to figure out the difference between the winning teams and the losing ones. Some of the winning teams won nearly twice as many games as the losers. Does that mean the winners were twice as good as the losers? No, the study found the best teams were only 5% better. On the surface it would seem that the winners would win an extra 5 % more. The reality was they won 50-100% more. Why? Because they were 5% better EVERY game. They always got that 1 more hit...that 1 more run...that 1 more great defensive play that made the difference.

So what does that mean for the Bills? It means we are not that far away from being a good team. Maybe an extra basket per game ( a 1 footer or a 3 every other game) and an extra free throw and 5 rebs per game would do it. The numbers show that if we did those things we would go from D- to B. In a B year we would have 3 or 4 OOC losses and be 9-9 in the A-10....still not good enough for post season play but a very decent year rebuilding or otherwise.

Bottomline....you can choose to shoot the messenger or realize that we are not that far off. The difference between winning and losing is inches not miles. I believe we are inches away.