The Wiz Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I thought it would be interesting to compare the preconference report card I did in early Jan with the mid season outlook. One of the main reasons I developed a grading system was to help deal with the problem of analyzing teams when there is parity.There is more parity this year than in recent years....hence more "upsets". Sometimes a team may be ranked as much as 25 slots ahead of another yet the game spread is statistically insignificant.....just too many teams with too small of a difference. This applies not to just my system but to many others as well. An example in the A-10 would be Dayton and St. J. Most would agree that St. J was a pretty good team that has been inconsistent. While many would say that Dayton was a team that showed promise yet had given up. Looking at the game they played against the Bills, it looked like Dayton might not win another game this year. The traditional numbers for St. J looked better, yet both teams going into last night's game were ranked B+. ...ie any differences were statistically insignificant and therefore the home team, in this case Dayton, would win in a tight seesaw game and they did. So here is the report card...... Preconference...............................................Mid Term VCU.......A+.....................................................A Bills........B+.....................................................A Butler......B+....................................................A- St. J........B+....................................................B+ Day.........B+....................................................B+ Temp......B+....................................................B+ LaS.........B+....................................................B+ Rich........B.......................................................B Char........B-.....................................................B- X.............B-......................................................B St. B........B-......................................................B- GW..........C+.....................................................B UMass.....C+.....................................................B RI.............C-......................................................C Duq..........D+.....................................................D+ Ford..........D-.....................................................D Besides using the grades for comparitive purposes, one of the other uses is to gauge Big Dance possibilities. In the nunber I have run over the years this is how they generally correlate. ...ie your chance of getting a bid at this time. A+....98% A.......90% A-......67% B+......16% So at this point the A-10 should get 3 bids with an outside chance of 4. These chances are based on merit and do not take into account auto bids. So if Rhode Island wins the A-10 tourney and gets an auto bid ....the chances for a B+ team getting a bid drop to near zero. Just a few other notes...I see talking heads on TV plus a few on this board saying SC was a bad loss. SC is a B team. I haven't heard anyone say UW was a bad loss. UW is a B team...SC=UW. Also, there is the fascination the media and pollsters have with Butler. At the beginning of conference play they were a B+ team. They have moved up to an A- . They are a very good team but not an elite team....not 9th in the nation...not even 14th. If the Bills aren't ranked than neither should Butler. So what gives? Butler has a signature win over IU....a fine accomplishment but just 1 game. ...a game that Butler played great and IU didn't. Taking the whole season into account SLU is the better team and not just because we beat them. And finally, we have some very tough games coming up...Rich, GW, X and VCU. At this point, I think I am going to favor us in all those games by a very small margin(2-3pts). Our toughest game for the remainder of the year will be @ Butler. I will wait to see how we do with VCU and then decide on the Butler game spread. So at mid term , I am pleased with where we are. From here on out it will all be about focus. Can the team keep focused for every game? Can JC get them ready to play every game? We will soon find out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbizzle09 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I thought it would be interesting to compare the preconference report card I did in early Jan with the mid season outlook. One of the main reasons I developed a grading system was to help deal with the problem of analyzing teams when there is parity.There is more parity this year than in recent years....hence more "upsets". Sometimes a team may be ranked as much as 25 slots ahead of another yet the game spread is statistically insignificant.....just too many teams with too small of a difference. This applies not to just my system but to many others as well. An example in the A-10 would be Dayton and St. J. Most would agree that St. J was a pretty good team that has been inconsistent. While many would say that Dayton was a team that showed promise yet had given up. Looking at the game they played against the Bills, it looked like Dayton might not win another game this year. The traditional numbers for St. J looked better, yet both teams going into last night's game were ranked B+. ...ie any differences were statistically insignificant and therefore the home team, in this case Dayton, would win in a tight seesaw game and they did.So here is the report card...... Preconference...............................................Mid Term VCU.......A+.....................................................A Bills........B+.....................................................A Butler......B+....................................................A- St. J........B+....................................................B+ Day.........B+....................................................B+ Temp......B+....................................................B+ LaS.........B+....................................................B+ Rich........B.......................................................B Char........B-.....................................................B- X.............B-......................................................B St. B........B-......................................................B- GW..........C+.....................................................B UMass.....C+.....................................................B RI.............C-......................................................C Duq..........D+.....................................................D+ Ford..........D-.....................................................D Besides using the grades for comparitive purposes, one of the other uses is to gauge Big Dance possibilities. In the nunber I have run over the years this is how they generally correlate. ...ie your chance of getting a bid at this time. A+....98% A.......90% A-......67% B+......16% So at this point the A-10 should get 3 bids with an outside chance of 4. These chances are based on merit and do not take into account auto bids. So if Rhode Island wins the A-10 tourney and gets an auto bid ....the chances for a B+ team getting a bid drop to near zero. Just a few other notes...I see talking heads on TV plus a few on this board saying SC was a bad loss. SC is a B team. I haven't heard anyone say UW was a bad loss. UW is a B team...SC=UW. Also, there is the fascination the media and pollsters have with Butler. At the beginning of conference play they were a B+ team. They have moved up to an A- . They are a very good team but not an elite team....not 9th in the nation...not even 14th. If the Bills aren't ranked than neither should Butler. So what gives? Butler has a signature win over IU....a fine accomplishment but just 1 game. ...a game that Butler played great and IU didn't. Taking the whole season into account SLU is the better team and not just because we beat them. And finally, we have some very tough games coming up...Rich, GW, X and VCU. At this point, I think I am going to favor us in all those games by a very small margin(2-3pts). Our toughest game for the remainder of the year will be @ Butler. I will wait to see how we do with VCU and then decide on the Butler game spread. So at mid term , I am pleased with where we are. From here on out it will all be about focus. Can the team keep focused for every game? Can JC get them ready to play every game? We will soon find out. I don't think that is the only reason why Butler was ranked 9th at one time. They also beat UNC when they were ranked #9 and Gonzaga when they were #8. I would say they have 3 signature wins on their schedule that pollsters can point to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 I don't think that is the only reason why Butler was ranked 9th at one time. They also beat UNC when they were ranked #9 and Gonzaga when they were #8. I would say they have 3 signature wins on their schedule that pollsters can point to. I agree with you ...those 2 would be signature wins also...the media just seems to focus on the IU win. The point I was trying to make was the Bills numbers are better than Butler. If you think Butler is a 14th ranked team (I still think that is too high) than we should be somewhere in the vicinity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
someoneelse Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Only VCU went down, you can only go down from A+. All others stayed the same (eight teams) or went up (seven teams). Something seems amiss with that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Only VCU went down, you can only go down from A+. All others stayed the same (eight teams) or went up (seven teams). Something seems amiss with that Well half the teams stayed the same....to be expected. The ones that went up benefited from playing more difficult teams in the A-10 than their OOC games plus some of the OOC opponents improved too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SShoe Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I agree with you ...those 2 would be signature wins also...the media just seems to focus on the IU win. The point I was trying to make was the Bills numbers are better than Butler. If you think Butler is a 14th ranked team (I still think that is too high) than we should be somewhere in the vicinity. Don't forget their win over Marquette. I would guess that Butler's numbers under Wiz's system don't pop out because they don't beat a lot of teams by particularly large margins and they've probably benefited greatly from the "luck factor." They have 3 big wins that easily could have gone the other way: 2 came at the buzzer (Marquette and Gonzaga) and 1 in overtime (IU). This would also explain the big difference between their KenPom rating and the RPI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kappy96 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I don't think that is the only reason why Butler was ranked 9th at one time. They also beat UNC when they were ranked #9 and Gonzaga when they were #8. I would say they have 3 signature wins on their schedule that pollsters can point to. Say what you will but Stevens has shown that he can prepare his teams to deliver on the big stage. While this team may not be as loaded as in the past, they are touch matchup for a lot of big time schools and carry a little swagger because they KNOW they if they execute their game plan and accept who they are as a team they can beat anyone. I hope that the way we dismantled them provides confidence to our guys that if we do the same we can compete and beat anyone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Don't forget their win over Marquette.I would guess that Butler's numbers under Wiz's system don't pop out because they don't beat a lot of teams by particularly large margins and they've probably benefited greatly from the "luck factor." They have 3 big wins that easily could have gone the other way: 2 came at the buzzer (Marquette and Gonzaga) and 1 in overtime (IU). This would also explain the big difference between their KenPom rating and the RPI. +1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Pelican Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Love the report, Wiz! Awesome as always. It is interesting to see these numbers as the season progresses. I wish there was a formula or way to factor trends and teams that are hot or cold; ie, Kansas, Creighton, UofL, Syracuse// Bills, Villanova before last week, Miami, etc. teams that are really rocking can go flat just like that and then drag. It's nice when the home team is on fire. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deutschkind Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Don't forget their win over Marquette.I would guess that Butler's numbers under Wiz's system don't pop out because they don't beat a lot of teams by particularly large margins and they've probably benefited greatly from the "luck factor." They have 3 big wins that easily could have gone the other way: 2 came at the buzzer (Marquette and Gonzaga) and 1 in overtime (IU). This would also explain the big difference between their KenPom rating and the RPI. I believe the proper term is "Hinkle Magic" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMDG Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I believe the proper term is "Hinkle Magic" The win over IU wasn't at Hinkle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.