kwyjibo Posted February 1, 2008 Share Posted February 1, 2008 Tom Timmerman has a brief note about the Billikens rolling into Atlantic City. With the assistance of RPIForecast.com I can give you some pretty accurate estimates of what is needed (RPIForecast runs thousands of probability based forecasts of the season and then sees what the final record and results are). If people are interested I can update this as things go along but I would like to note that before SLU beat LaSalle, RPIforecast gave us around a 75% chance of going to AC. Beating LaSalle gives SLU the advantage in any future tie breaker with LaSalle. Anyway right now SLU has a 86.3% chance of going to the tournament under all scenarios. You can tease out those estimates that 1 more win gives us a remote chance of going (<1%, LaSalle tanks it completely), two more wins around a 40% chance, 3 more wins around 80%, 4 more wins a near lock (99.8%). 5 more wins or more is a cert. Personally, I am little more optimistic than the "objective" forecast but when I read last week someone here write SLU has "little chance" in not going to AC I wanted to make a more precise estimate. I think 13.7% chance is more than a "little". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bonwich Posted February 1, 2008 Share Posted February 1, 2008 I was moderately disturbed to hear Rammer, who didn't know his mike was hot, say after the Dayton game (apparently to Dayton announcers) "We probably won't see you in Atlantic City." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted February 1, 2008 Share Posted February 1, 2008 I was moderately disturbed to hear Rammer, who didn't know his mike was hot, say after the Dayton game (apparently to Dayton announcers) "We probably won't see you in Atlantic City." Rammer has been known to exagerate a bit after bad losses but if you give him the benefit of the doubt maybe he was assuming Dayton would get a 1st round bye and we would lose on day 1. Otherwise, he clearly was not aware of Kwyjibo's analysis showing an 87% probability. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluSignGuy Posted February 1, 2008 Share Posted February 1, 2008 SLU is making the A-10 tournament. If SLU and GW are the two teams that don't make it...put SignGuy on suicide watch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted February 1, 2008 Share Posted February 1, 2008 no way it will be both slu and gw. the bonnies likely have the one no show in the bag. the race for the last left out spot now appears to be slu, lasalle and gw. slu and gw have the schedule against them as slu's home and away games are with dayton, george washington and umass. gw has slu, xavier and rhode island. lasalle gets st bonnie, richmond, and duquesne. lasalle has already won two of their home and away series games. slu hasnt one any and gw only has the slu win. slu really needs to win that return game with gw imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH Posted February 1, 2008 Share Posted February 1, 2008 no way it will be both slu and gw. the bonnies likely have the one no show in the bag. the race for the last left out spot now appears to be slu, lasalle and gw. slu and gw have the schedule against them as slu's home and away games are with dayton, george washington and umass. gw has slu, xavier and rhode island. lasalle gets st bonnie, richmond, and duquesne. lasalle has already won two of their home and away series games. slu hasnt one any and gw only has the slu win. slu really needs to win that return game with gw imo. if we win 3of our final 5 home games, Hopefully we can get (Umass/Fordham, GW, and St. Bonnie) that gives us 5 wins. Then if we can sneak one or two out on the road we will have 6 or seven wins. I think 6 gets us in. If we beat GW how does the tiebreaker work? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted February 1, 2008 Share Posted February 1, 2008 if we win 3of our final 5 home games, Hopefully we can get (Umass/Fordham, GW, and St. Bonnie) that gives us 5 wins. Then if we can sneak one or two out on the road we will have 6 or seven wins. I think 6 gets us in. If we beat GW how does the tiebreaker work? i think it goes by who beat the highest team in the standings. first it is head to head. then it is record vs common opponents. and then third the who beat the higher team. i.e. we beat rhode island. let's say rhody finishes third. if g.w.'s best win is fordham and they finish 8th, we get the spot. not real sure about this, but i think that is how it works. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmbilliken Posted February 1, 2008 Share Posted February 1, 2008 I wouldn't count on beating GW. They've got our number. They know it and we know it. We just need to bounce back and win Saturday. As long as we can avoid a 3 game losing steak we ought to be in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH Posted February 1, 2008 Share Posted February 1, 2008 I wouldn't count on beating GW. They've got our number. They know it and we know it. We just need to bounce back and win Saturday. As long as we can avoid a 3 game losing steak we ought to be in.I dont think anyone is counting on any win. Our 4 games against GW as folows @GW: OT loss @STL: Win @AC: Blowout Loss @GW Blowout Loss We usually are at least competetive at home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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