The Wiz
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Posts posted by The Wiz
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2 hours ago, SLU_Lax said:
So if we out rebound, out shoot, and have less turnovers we should win? The only possible way to lose in that scenario is if the number of free throws is way different.
Almost....
Step 1....Match or have less TOs....if this doesn't happen...about 80% chance for a loss....step 1a (if you don't match or have fewer TOs...score 20% more than your opponent from the arc for a chance to win.
You may only go on to step 2 if you complete step 1...noncompletion of step 1 = loss
Step 2.... Out rebound your opponent OR have a higher FG% than the other team
Step 3...Bills win....70% if you out rebound....80% if your FG% is higher....95% if you do both.
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Again the simple stat is TOs
You lose the TO battle...you lose the game ...85% of the time. In order to overcome that stat (the 15%) we need to shoot 20% higher than the opponent from the arc...no simple task. Failure to do so spells auto loss.
If we win the TO battle , we win 55% of the time....the deciding factor being FG% and reb...we usually lose both factors in games we lose with one of those stats becoming a double digit negative. Last night's game was a good example. We won the TO battle...but lost the 2 key factors...FG% and reb with one being by double digits...FG% lost 49%-47% and rebs 39-24 (double digit loss)
Bottom line...This team has no margin for error. We can't give opponents extra chances...be it TOs or Rebs. If we do it almost always will spell loss.
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Game Review
Well the good news is we beat them on TOs. But if you have been reading along, you know that only evens up the game so we then have a chance to win. The next measuring stick after we we meet the TO requirement is the slash line. Let's take a look at some highlights from my original post above.
Bolded statements from original post....
Keys to the Game.......Guard Bamisile from the arc....he killed us from 3 ( 70%..7-10) His 5 extra 3PM cost us 15 pts and the game. ...I guess this info didn't make it to the team. He only scored 27 pts instead of the 29 he had the first game....15 of those pts from the arc. Here is guy when he is not playing the Billikens averages about 11 ppg. Once again this guy costs us the game with an extra 16pts. He is also the reason we didn't make the next parameter...
Beat VCU across the slash line...Had we scored 3 more 3PM plus 4 more FTs we would have beat them across the slash and won the game. We are the better shooting team...and yet they beat us across the slash. There is more but this is enough...you get the idea...match up the TOs and we have a chance to win....if we don't win on matched TOs it means we played poorly...poor 3 Pt shooting...poor reb...poor defense...etc.
51 minutes ago, Lord Elrond said:Yeah, seriously, I think they are just that bad. F- seems the correct grade
Well, we are not yet there but we are sinking toward that. Generally, when you give up 81 pts , it is considered an F- game. Could the Bills drop that low? It is possible but not probable. We would have to give up about 88 ppg over the next 6 games to reach that low. We don't have to reach that low to prove we are bad.
And yet with all the negativity, the game was winnable. Remember the game was tied at 61 deep into the 2nd half...it was anyone's game and we let it slip away. No, this isn't a terrible team....it is a team that has some good parts but hasn't yet gelled. It is through that missing gel that victories slip away.
The clock is ticking....
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2 hours ago, Titan M said:
A fan of Jesuit basketball since my days at Dear ‘ol UofD. One of my NCAA pools always has an all Jesuit Final 4 if possible.
Enjoy when the Jesuit teams beat an ACC, Big 10/20 or other self proclaimed power school.
Not whining just looking for perspective.
Good luck on your coaching search!
Since you are still here, I will give you an update. KenPom still has you down for a 5 pt win tomorrow against IUPUI (projected as your only win for the entire season). Unfortunately, my spread for that game has worsened. IUPUI by 7. Pray for KenPom results.
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Post season A-10.....NCAA...Day 4th seed....NIT chances...Rich ...87%...VCU...74%
General Outlook........Yesterday , we were 2nd ITN in TOs ...LeMoyne had 1 more at 23. However, we still took the TO crown because LeM's TO spread was only 9 to our 12. While everyone will focus on the TOs in the coming days and getting that 22 number down, it is the spread which is important. Let's say we get get that 22 number for the VCU game down to 12...there will still be a problem if we only force them to TO 3 times(9 spread). So how do things look for the rest of the season. Again, let's look at the VCU game. If we match them in TOs, the 5 pt spread is gone and then it will be about basketball stuff....slash line/shooting...rebs ...assists...defense. ...but unless we match TOs the rest won't matter. Here are some interesting projections....if we match teams in TOs the rest of the season we win half of the remaining games. If we match AND make the slash we win most of the rest of the games. If we match and play like we did on offense the last 2 games...we win all the remaining games...most of them being blowouts for SLU. Take a deep breath ...count to 3 and then let it out.
One of the things that surprised me in looking over today's data is our overall standing. We are still a C- team...but beyond that we didn't move. On my rankings, I have SLU at 206...before the St. J game we were 207. I am thinking a 1 pt loss on the road to a pretty good team and virtually no change. So I asked the computer ...what gives?....It started talking about the United Way...artificial intelligence...what do you expect. Once we returned to SLU basketball it said it had projected a 9 pt win for St. J....7 of those pts were based on the home field advantage swap...which would then take it down to 2 pts ...we lost by 1 pt ....take out the rounding errors amounted to a difference of less than 1 pt. What this means is that between now and the last time we played St. J a month ago the computer didn't see any overall improvement. No question that certain areas have improved... offense and rebounding but other areas have declined ...TOs and defense...canceling out the gain. Result equals no overall change ...no overall improvement.
Let's take a look at the game
Game Preview....VCU comes in as a B+ team. Right now listed as an NIT team. I don't list a team for the Dance unless they have at least a 50% chance of making it. If you read the above paragraph, you see we have a chance to win this game. VCU playing at our place is pretty much the same as us playing at St. J. On offense, we are the better team right now. On the other side of the coin , VCU has one of the best defenses ITN.
Let's look at the card....
Report Card....
The card is positive.....4 up ( 3 Off & 1 Def ) and none down
.................SLU............VCU................SLU.....................VCU
...........................OFF..........................................DEF..........
PPG..........C-..................D+...................F+......................A
FG%..........C-..................C-...................D........................A+..13th ITN
3P%...........A-..................B.....................D+.....................A+..13th ITN
FT%..........B...................A+...10th ITN.............................
Reb...........D+.................C+..................D+......................B+
OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb
UP...............Off....3P%...FT%...Reb.....Def...FG%
Down.........Off...none......Def...none
Top 100 In The Nation
SLU
Min /gm...Jimerson ...54th...up
VCU
Blks...Fermin...63rd
FT%....Shulga...97th
Injury /Illness report and misc
The Bills...
Meadows...Quest...2/10...back
VCU...
None
Keys to the Game.......Guard Bamisile from the arc....he killed us from 3 ( 70%..7-10) His 5 extra 3PM cost us 15 pts and the game. We need to shoot much better than the last VCU game...36/20/94...We missed 4 extra 3P shots (12pts) ...even the 94% didn't matter because they had more FTM because of an extra 7 FTAs. (they shot 80%)
WWN2D2W...Target slash--Beat VCU across the slash line...Hold VCU to 70 pts....Match them in TOs and Rebs....Hold Bamisile to 12pts...Hold the top 4 VCU scorers to 40 pts.
Bottom line.........
TOs to match
Layups to jam
Exceed their slashline
And beat the Ram.
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Pitino Sr has said he wants his kid to take the St. John's job when he retires. In the meantime , I think he wants his kid to stay put at NM.
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What can I say?...After 2 months of talking/harping about TOs (Just check the charts in this thread above on TOs) the St. J star of the game was our TOs. St. J didn't beat us ...we gave them the game. If we match them on TOs we win by 20+ ...In other words, we do the same thing we did to LaS to a much better team ...blow them out at home. There were so many things that went right in this game BUT as I have pointed out many times before...Lose the TO battle...lose the game. The stat right now stands at 85%...If you lose the TO battle you have an 85% chance to lose the game. Hard to overcome that.
The most amazing set of numbers was to give up 22 TOs (TO spread was 12) and to only lose by 1. Usually 20 TOs or a TO spread of 10 spells automatic loss. Some of the things that went right...bolded from above...
can a healthy Parker now play at least 21 min and score at least 15 pts and 3 rebs and replace the Dalger production...yes...34 pts ...9 reb ...27 min ...far exceeded
Can Hargrove score more than the 8Pts and 1 reb from the last St. J game ....yes...19 pts ..8 reb...far exceeded
Match rebounds.....Yes..40-30...again far exceeded
Hold Reynolds and Greer to 30 pts....17pts and yet another far exceed
Target slash....47/ 39/ 74... another yes...actual 49/42/86
We ALMOST did everything we needed to do to win...I leave you with 1 thought...
Lose the TO battle...lose the game.
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There has been a lot of hand wringing this season...some of it deserved ....some of it overblown. It all depends on comparisons and expectations.
In the D-1 universe , we are a C- team , slightly below average. We are certainly not an end of the world team.....see the Detroit Titans thread elsewhere on the board for that scenario ...Compared to the Titans , we look like a Final 4 team. In the Billiken world , we are looking for a Top 50 team (A- ), a team that has a chance to Dance. In that sense we have fallen far short....and thus the fan unrest.
I have seen talk comparing this team to the Crews years. If we look at the 21st Century teams...the 2 worst teams are 3rd year Crews 11-21 (3-15) and 1st year Ford 12-21 (6-12). Both teams are rated at D and in a simulated game against one another the game would be even. If the present day Bills played either team the current Bills would be favored by 3. Those 2 past Bills teams are comparable to present day DePaul ...3-20...0-12. If DePaul played the Bills today at the Fetz...Bills by 7.... Current Bills playing old Bills teams is considered a neutral game at the Fetz.
Bottom line ...This is not the worst team ever. In fact it is not the worst team of the 21st century. It is a disappointing team in that it is not competing in the A-10 or for The Dance. The good news is that in the new world of college basketball with the portal and NIL it is no longer a 4 or 5 year fix. Things can turn around in a year with the right moves. Things could be much worse now....you could be in Detroit.
TheChosenOne likes this -
My computer has a suggestion for you...schedule MS Valley St Delta Devils ...the only other winless D-1 team...Det by 3. Unfortunately , it shows no real world wins. In searching the computer world, my computer shows KenPom has you down for a win on Valentine's Day over IUPUI by 4. Sadly, my machine shows you losing to them by 5.
I would say any win this season would definitely be a rush the court moment for the Titans. Good luck
majerus mojo likes this -
29 minutes ago, SLU_Lax said:
Except of course that the PG actually has the ball and is in a position to turn the ball over twice as much. Minutes does not capture the usage rate. It is not a perfect scenario. Or maybe we can have SVB bring the ball up as his turnover rate on a per minute basis is also much better.
I must have anticipated your question. While the above follow up chart doesn't exactly deal with usage, it does add more balance and context . The first TO chart is just the raw data used to produce the second chart. You will be happy to see that the computer in the 2nd chart agrees with you and doesn't want SvB bringing the ball up either.
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And now it is time for the last piece of the TO puzzle...the + /- stat also known as the net worth statement. In other words , is a player adding value when he is on the floor or subtracting value. And if he is adding or subtracting value, how much is he contributing during the game.
We will start with the TOE. (Turn Over Effect) This stat is more than just a POT (Points Off Turnovers...these are the points that the player has lost for the team as a result of the TO) . It also includes the LOP (Lost Opportunity Points) . This refers to the points that would have been potential scored by the team on the lost possession by the player. So let's review.
POT+ LOP =TOE...The TOE is a bad number ...it is the negative effect of the player turning the ball over...It is the minus of the plus minus formula. The plus is the player's PPG. Which leads us to the final formula...PPG- TOE = Player net worth (+/-)
So the way this works is you take each player's PPG and then you subtract their TOE you then have the player's net worth. Here is the net worth chart.
Parker....+12
Jimerson...10.3
Ezewiro...10.3
Hargrove...9.1
Hughes...3.8
Thames...3.4
Meadows...3.1
Curcic.......1.9
Evans.......0.9
Zhang......0.8
SvB.........+0.5
Medley...-0.8
This chart gives a more balanced approach to TOs by balancing it against PPG...much the same way that TOs are used to balance assists. Of course there are other factors that affect the game and a player's time on the floor such as rebs, blks, stls, assts etc. But this is an important stat for the Bills in light of the fact that TOs are a major factor in the outcome of Bills games.
If the computer were coach , it would start the first 5 on the list and go down the list as subs were needed. And of course the computer would work for cheap. You could pay it in giga-bit-coins. Of course , you could always pay it in cash ...as long as it was in Bills.
Matty Light likes this -
26 minutes ago, Billikenbooster said:
Last game Medley played but 14 minutes but had 3 TO’s, highest for the game. Hughes hasnt particularly shone when PG, but might be a better choice going forward, especially if Meadows continues MIA
I think you are correct.
Here is what the data shows.... This is TO/mins arranged in order ...fewest to highest...ie ...Thames 1 TO every 21.9 min
Thames....21.9 min
Hughes.....21.2
Meadows...21.2
Curcic.........20.7
Hargrove....20.2
Parker.......19.8
Jimerson...18.8
Ezewiro...16.8
SvB.........16
Zhang.....12.7
Evans......11
Medley....9.6
So yes ...you are spot on...Hughes for Medley would drop our TO ratio as Medley turns the ball over at nearly twice the rate Hughes does.
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Here is an interesting simulation.... If we change just 1 stat in all our losses ...TOs...and make the TOs at least equal to our opponent...our record right now would be 6-4 in conference and 1 game out of the double bye 4th place. In addition, we would be 16-7 overall (a B team) ranked at 93. In many cases we are talking about only changing a few TOs as in forcing the opp to TO the ball over 1 more time and for us to lose it one less time. As they say ...the game is a matter of inches.
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Post season A-10.....NCAA...Day 3rd seed....NIT chances...Rich ...80%...St. B...60%...VCU...54%...
General Outlook........Great game against LaS...Yes, I know LaS isn't the best but they are far from the worst team we have played this year...and we whomped them AT THEIR PLACE with a record 102 points....The most points the Bills have scored in an A-10 conference game ever... plus the 2nd most in any conference game since the Bills beat Wichita St in 1956 when they scored 103. ...A tip o' the cap to Parker who scored 33 pts and 6 rebs... So what happened? First, we neutralized the TO spread (10-10) ... defense was a wash since both are about equal which then leads us to shooting...where we were the clearly superior team. I mentioned in the LaS forecast we should beat them across the entire slash line...we did and the rest is history.
So is it over ? Are we out of the funk? Are we trending up now? Not yet...1 game does not make a trend BUT this could be a turning point ...not just because we won and broke the losing streak but because the numbers turned it into a signature game.
Let's take a look at the St. J game...
Game Preview....This would be a great follow up win especially on the road. As you can see by the spread , this will not be an easy task. While The Bills have moved back up to C-...St. J is sporting a solid B overall....a much better team than LaS. When you look at the report card below, it won't give you much hope as St. J leads in every category but FT% where they tie us. So is that it...do we have any chance ? The answer is YES. I will tell you there was an asterisk by the computer's results....which means the computer thinks we can win this game. Don't forget , we have already beaten St. J about a month ago by 3. Since then, the current spread is showing a 12 pt shift (3pt win last time+ 9 pt projected loss this time) Seven of the 12 pts are home field advantage swap.....the other 5 is that we have slipped backwards as a team. So what is different from the last time that will give us a chance this time. On the downside, we are missing Dalger who had one of his best games scoring 15pts and 3 reb. Meanwhile, it was Parker's first game back ..he played 3 mins and couldn't continue ...0 pts. So the computers posits the following question...can a healthy Parker now play at least 21 min and score at least 15 pts and 3 rebs and replace the Dalger production...The answer is a strong yes. In addition, Hargrove had an uncharacteristically bad game....8 pts (1-7 FG%) and 1 reb...can he do better than this...again another strong yes. The computer also thinks Ezewiro is a better player than a month ago particularly if he can stay out of foul trouble.....So the elements for a win are there. Btw, our last game with St J was strange...it was one of the few games that we lost the TO battle (7-5) and won the game.(17% chance) In order to overcome the deficit and win the game , the computer says we need to shoot 54% from the arc. We shot 54%. In the only other game where we lost the TO spread (badly...10-0) and won(La Tech)...we again made the 54% threshold.... this time shooting 56%. Can we just match the TOs this time and shoot the regular projected target slash.
Let's look at the card....
Report Card....
The card is positive.....2 up ( Off ) and one down (Def)
.................SLU............St. J................SLU..................St. J
...........................OFF........................................DEF..........
PPG..........C-..................B.....................F+...................C+
FG%..........C-..................B-...................D.....................A-
3P%...........B+..................A.....................D+.................C
FT%..........B-...................B-...........................................
Reb...........D.....................B-..................D+...................B-
OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb
UP...............Off....FG%...PPG....Def...none
Down.........Off...none......Def...PPG
Top 100 In The Nation
SLU
Min /gm...Jimerson ...55th...up
St. J
Blks...1.5....Fleming...87th
Injury /Illness report and misc
The Bills...
Meadows...Questionable...2/7...back
St. J....
Haskin... 11/14...out for season...Red Shirt
Winborne...1/26...Out indefinitely...Personal
Lange...1/31...out for season...Concussion
Keys to the Game.....St. J Depth... the missing players have shortened their bench ...they go with 6...I think one of the reasons we won last time is one of their key players fouled out and they couldn't hang on. .... They can shoot the 3...even better than us and we are pretty good....We stopped them last time (34%)...we need to do it again.....Stop Reynolds and Greer ...especially Reynolds ...These 2 guys will take half of the team's shots.
WWN2D2W...Target slash....47/ 39/ 74.....Match them in TOs and Rebs....Hold Reynolds and Greer to 30 pts. ...St. J slash...38/33/ 71
Bottom line....If we play to our potential...we can stop the Hawk flappin' and start the Billiken clappin'.
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We did what we were supposed to do (finally) and it turned into a win.
Bolded text from the original post in this thread.
when we lose the TO battle we lose the game 83% of the time...In this game we didn't lose the TO spread...Part of the problem on the TO spread is opponent TOs ...we are not generating enough to cancel out our TOs...In this game we did just that and got a 10-10 tie which gives us the chance to win. ....when we win or tie the TO spread our chances to win become 50-50...so we still have to play basketball after the TOs improve...which means...Target slash-- beat them in all 3 categories of the slash...We did 56/45/84 to the LaS slash of 39/36/76...ball game.
keep the good shooting going but this time make some FTs...we did...see previous line above
Match them in TOs and Rebs...We did and even beat them on rebs...nice
One last thing on TOs...Some may say, is this TO thing a big deal ...after all we tied them on TOs and still won by 18 ...the answer is yes, it is a big deal....opp TOs is our weakest category and tonight there was no TO spread...10=10...Pts off TOs for the Bills =20...pts off TOs for LaS = 10...plus by not giving up our usually spread we may have denied LaS 7 or 8 more opportunities to score = about 8 pts...Pts off TOs spread 10 + 8 pts off lost LaS opportunities = the game's spread of 18 pts...that is why this is important.
I leave you with the bottom line ....
Bottom line....Explore new territory...Land of the Win...It is located on the other side of Lake Turnover...Let's stay on the other side of the lake.
billikenbill, CenHudDude, Billikenbooster and 1 other like this -
1 hour ago, Taj79 said:
I have watched La Salle enough this year to know Jocius is nothing but a weak Euro four. The only way you can say he is their inside game is that is because they have no one else able to go inside except Ryan Zan who is a 6'7" light sophomore. La Salle remains the B&B boys ---- Brickus and Khalil Brantley. Both average around 15 ppg with Brickus as the 1 and Brantley the two. Dashon Sheperd is a nice player but at 6'5" usually too smalel to battle inside with any consistency. Anwar Gill is the same as he was four years ago --- a slasher to the basket with little else going for him. Andres Marrero is their sixth man and isn't too bad but that is as far as they go. I will say that this year, they are all allowing Frannie Dunphy to coach them better and it is working out better.
If we get beat by Rokas Jocius, we really suck.
I hope you are right and we can take Jocius out of his game. At 6'10 and 260 he is 10th in the A-10 in 2P% shooting 59%. In the last game against St. J ( a defense similar to ours) he scored 15 pts and 6 rebs in 22 min. If we can stop Jocius, maybe then we can concentrate on closing the TO spread and outperforming LaS all the way across the slash line as we are the better shooting team.
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Injury update
2/4.... Meadows ...Back...Questionable
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General Outlook....Post season A-10.....NCAA...Day 4th seed....NIT chances...Rich ...82%....VCU...50%...Meanwhile back at the PIG pen....it will be the battle of the bottom feeders......This could be a preview of the first game of the A-10 tourney next month. If PIGs fly high, we can leave the sty.
Let's take a look at the game
Game Preview....Well the good news is their has been nice improvement on the report card ( Off and Def...although their is still lots of room for improvement )....the bad news is that it was canceled out by TOs. Going forward if we can bring the TOs under control we can start winning games again. Many of you may be tired of me talking about TOs the last couple of months but that is the elephant in the room. Again, when we lose the TO battle we lose the game 83% of the time. Part of the problem on the TO spread is opponent TOs ...we are not generating enough to cancel out our TOs. Opp TOs= F- 19th worst ITN. Finally when we win the TO spread our chances to win become 50-50...so we still have to play basketball after the TOs improve.
LaS (C- ) is not as good as Fham. Meanwhile, The Bills have fallen to D+ .....The Explorer Off is slightly better than Fham ...but their shooting is still below The Bills...we need to sweep them on the slash....also the LaS defense is worse than Fham....but about the same as ours. We definitely have a chance to beat them IF we control TOs. They do have some players that can shoot the three...Brickus and sub Morrero. When left open they are A shooters...when guarded they are D shooters. Their inside guy is Jocius...So here is the LaS play...Brickus gets the ball and shoots a 3 ...if he doesn't have an open shot he passes to Jocius who will shoot inside...if he doesn't have a shot he will pass it back to Brickus....wash, rinse , repeat.
Let's look at the card....
Report Card....
The card is positive.....6 up ( 2 Off & 4 Def) and none down
.................SLU............LaS................SLU.....................LaS
...........................OFF..........................................DEF..........
PPG..........D+..................C....................D-......................D+
FG%..........D+..................D-...................D.......................D+
3P%...........B+...................C.....................D+...................D
FT%..........B-...................C.................................................
Reb...........D.....................D+..................D+......................F+
OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb
UP...............Off....FG%...3P%....Def...PPG...FG%...3P%...Reb
Down.........Off....none....FT%......Def...none
Top 100 In The Nation
SLU
Min /gm...Jimerson ...58th...dn
LaS
MPG...Brickus...9th.....Brantley... 41st
Asst...Brickus...49th
Injury /Illness report and misc
The Bills....None
LaS....None
Keys to the Game.......Don't let Brickus get open 3s....Break up the Brickus to Jocius combo....keep the good shooting going but this time make some FTs....Did I mention TOs?
WWN2D2W...Target slash-- beat them in all 3 categories of the slash....Hold LaS to 71 pts....Match them in TOs and Rebs....Hold their top 2 scores to 25pts
Bottom line....Explore new territory...Land of the Win...It is located on the other side of Lake Turnover.
billikenbill and TheChosenOne like this -
13 hours ago, billikenbill said:
Wonder if the post-game analysis will include something about turnovers.
Magic 8 Ball says...Chances are good.
Let's throw out a few numbers...18 12 83
18...The number of Bills TOs....this number was way too high
12...The spread in TOs ...double digit TO spreads are almost always a loss.. the key here is not just the horrible 18 number from above but that we could only force a very poor 6 TOs from Fham.....the computer says if the Bills hit 53% from the arc in any game with a TO deficit they can can still win the game....interestingly, had Parker made the final 3 at the buzzer for the win...we would have shot 53% from the arc....
83...The percentage of games The Bills lose when they lose the TO battle.
Of course there were many factors to talk about in addition to the TOs...a simple one would be FTs...Had the Bills made their normal FT % they would have had 3 more pts.
I could go on....but I will leave you with my bottom line from the original post of this thread....
"Fham can't beat us...We either win the game or we give them the game.".....I would say that is one of my most accurate predictions.
CenHudDude and Bay Area Billiken like this -
22 minutes ago, Lord Elrond said:
Here’s an equation to run through @The Wiz’s computer:
Does 8-14 plus 9 more games to play = a 8-23 regular season record?
I’m thinking it does at this point.
So in order to answer this, the computer had to go back to its original algorithm from the Magic 8 Ball ...I asked it 4 times...here were the answers.
1. Replay hazy, try again.
2. Cannot predict now.
3. Ask again later.
4. The Bills are behind the 8 ball.
Lord Elrond likes this -
4 hours ago, OkieBilliken said:
Hack-A-Ram defense. Activate SVB.
This might work as long as we don't foul Gray...he is their FT shooter.. 79%
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General Outlook...."Juan" is taking a siesta. For the 1st time this season the A10 is showing the possibility of having 2 bids...Day ...4th seed in the Dance...Rich ...50% chance to Dance ...St. B...NIT...58%. Meanwhile, back in the pen, we are preparing for another battle of the PIGs. If we want to climb out of the sty we need to win this game.
Let's take a look at the game
Game Preview.... As you can see by the headline, the computer thinks we can win this game. Why? Hasn't the computer been watching? Yes, that's why it thinks we can win. We are the better team on offense. We are better shooters ...we should sweep the slash line. And while we are terrible on D, they are only a hair better. Rose, Gray and Rivera are their main guys...Rose from the arc and the other 2 on the inside. Tsimbila is a big shot blocker. Don't dribble into him and get swatted away. Finally, Fham is a team that turns the ball over(D- ). Turn them over.
Let's take a look at this game's report card....
Report Card....
The card is negative....none up and 4 down(3 Off and 1 Def)......
.................SLU............Fham................SLU...................Fham
...........................OFF..........................................DEF.............
PPG..........D+..................C....................F+.........................D+
FG%..........D....................F+...................D-.........................C
3P%...........B...................D.....................D............................D+
FT%..........B-...................F.....................................................
Reb...........D.....................B-..................D.............................B-
OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb
UP...............Off....none...FT%....Def....none
Down.........Off....FG%...3P%...FT%......Def....3P%
Top 100 In The Nation
SLU
Min /gm...Jimerson ...38th...up
Fham
Stls...Rose...72nd
Blks...Tsimbila...13th
Injury /Illness report and misc
The Bills....None
Fham....None
Keys to the Game.......We need to beat them in TOs...and we need to beat them in shooting --in all categories. Their 3P D is not very good ...hopefully, we can hit from the arc. They can't shoot --UNLESS we leave them wide open....this includes points off TOs too.
WWN2D2W...Target slash-- beat them in all 3 categories of the slash....Hold Fham to 70 pts....Win the TO battle....Hold their top 3 to under 30 pts...Hold Tsimbila to 1 blk.
Bottom line....Fham can't beat us...We either win the game or we give them the game. Let's not be sheepish...let's bring it to them.
Adman, TheChosenOne and CenHudDude like this -
4 hours ago, Old guy said:
Wiz, I find it interesting to discuss probability with you. Yes, the probability of a loss may well 82% when the Bills do not win the TOs, and 50% when they win the TOs. That is generally speaking. I would like to point out that it is not the same to lose by a couple of points than to lose by 15 points or more after losing the TO's in any given game. Individual case probability is not an exact science which depends upon the averages of preferably large numbers of cases, some of which will be outliers. When evaluating the probability of a single case oftentimes you have to look for details suggesting this particular individual case is an outlier, which was the case in the Bills vs Loyola game. It can be done, please believe me.
I think the computer takes what you say into account. It predicted a 10 pt win for Loy...Loy won by 15. . Once the computer picks a double digit win anything above the forecast is considered a "diminishing return" and not that meaningful. The key point of that TO stat was...in most cases you have to win the TO battle first AND THEN you need to win the game with other stats. Lose that TO battle and it will be very difficult to win the game (as in 54% + from the arc). In the A10 where you have a great deal of parity even a small TO spread can affect the outcome of the game.. The larger TO spreads just turn the games into blowouts.
TheChosenOne likes this -
Another painful loss...The good news is we won the TO spread (by 4). Time to check out what I said in the SLPD thread on TOs
When the Bills lose the TO spread...there is an 82% chance of a loss. Conversely, when they win the TO spread they win 50% of the time. This means when you lose the spread it is almost a sure loss ...if you win the spread you have a chance to win. In other words, winning the spread you still have work to do (like making the slash) but it gives you a chance....Losing the TO spread is almost a certain loss regardless of what else you do.
So we won the TO battle which gave us a chance to win. And then we shot poorly...really poor...2 of 14 (14%) from the arc....Here is what tonight's graded slash looks like....F-/ F- / F- / C-....Had The Bills just shot their own season average they would have had 4 more 3s...1 more 2 and 1 more FT...Total 15 pts. Again, they didn't need a good shooting game but just an average Bills night to win.
This isn't complicated with fancy efficiency stats ....Win the TO battle and then shoot The Bills average to win games.
CenHudDude likes this
Duq over The Bills by 9
in Billikens.com Main Board
Posted
Post season A-10.....NCAA...Day 4th seed (unch)....NIT chances....VCU...76% (up)...Rich...60%(dn)...St. B ..54% (new)...Loy...50%(new)
General Outlook........We are slowly being locked into the PIG pen. While we still can escape (2 games out) we need to win some games to do so. While Duq is a decent team(15-10 ) they are only 1 game away from the PIG sty...so they are beatable. At the beginning of the A-10 season , I said there is no team we can't beat in the conference as long as we can match that team in TOs. I will stick to that statement going forward. Once we match TOs, regardless of the spread, the game becomes an even game.
Let's take a look at the game
Game Preview....The Bills continue to cling to a C- rating...a team with an improving offense and a faltering defense. Duq on the other hand grades out at B . ...a poor man's VCU. Like VCU, Duq has a weak offense and a good defense. The difference between the 2 teams is that Duq is a step down from VCU both in offense and defense. You could call Duq ...VCU lite. Grant and Clark are their go to guys. Unlike a lot of A-10 teams, Duq will come at you with a more traditional lineup of 2 guards and 3 forwards. Much of their scoring will be inside. As I mentioned above and you will see below in the report card...Duq has a weak offense EXCEPT if you leave them open. They don't take many shots but when they do they try to make them count. Bother them and we have a chance to win.
Let's look at the card....
Report Card....
The Card is down.....2 up ( Off ) and 3 down (1 Off & 2 Def)
.................SLU............DUQ................SLU...................DUQ
...........................OFF........................................DEF..........
PPG............C..................D...................F........................B+
FG%...........C..................D...................D+......................B
3P%...........A-.................C-.................D........................B-
FT%...........B...................D.............................
Reb...........D...................C..................D+......................C
OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb
UP...............Off....PPG...FG%.....Def...none
Down.........Off...Reb......Def...PPG...3P%
Top 100 In The Nation
SLU
Min /gm...Jimerson ...56th...dn
Duq
Blks...Dixon...45th
Stls...Clark...29th
Injury /Illness report and misc
The Bills...
Meadows...Quest...2/16...back
Duq..
None
Keys to the Game.......Control Grant and Clark and you control the game. If you can tamp them down they will look for Dixon as the escape hatch. Don't dribble into Dixon, he is looking for the block and if Clark is guarding you protect the ball as he is looking for the steal. Get some rebounds...no second chance shots for Duq.
WWN2D2W...Target slash--Beat Duq across the slash line.....Match them in TOs and Rebs....Hold Grant and Clark to 25pts...
Bottom line.........
Grab a rebound
And put a shot back in
Bother Duquesne
And we can leave town with a win.