The Bills over Det M by 12

[The Wiz]

46 minutes ago, kshoe said:

Honestly, I think SLU is going to be easy money for a while. The Wiz and Pomeroy's systems have us as 12 point favorites. Vegas has us -11.5. So those are all in-line.

But look at Pomeroy and how little confidence it has in SLU overall:

- We are ranked 158 overall. My ass this is only the 158th best team

- Predicts a 16-15 overall record and 8-10 in the A-10. My ass this team is only going to get 16 wins.

 

To me this seems to be an obvious case where the computer systems haven't yet figured out last year's results/team don't matter and Vegas hasn't figured out the computers are wrong about SLU. Bet heavy on the Bills!

Part of the uncertainty is the Bills have only 3 "real" games.  Many teams have 5 already...a big difference early on.  In addition, I think the Bills are more of an unknown than most teams at this point. ....for example....

Shorthanded......Paying with 8 makes you more of an unknown. Even if they are a "great 8"...will they fatigue more than normal as the other team wears them down?...how about short turn arounds of a day or 2 ? (see Prov)....What about the long term affect?

How to figure S2 into the equation....In my system (using the preseason Bayesian model) it leads to an unusual situation.   The preseason model uses all the players (including the new players and the ones not playing) Each game phases out part of the forecasting model and replaces it with real data.  So what is happening  is... the 2 missing players are gradually being "replaced" by real data .  Normally, if a player is out for an extended period they are replaced and the stats are re-figured (Welmer and Graves). In this case though the Computer (and everyone else) doesn't know when the missing 2 will be back...so it is being viewed as day to day.  My program will continue to phase them out through game 8 (excluding Rockhurst).  On game 9, the Computer will consider them off the team and the program will reset when the new players are added. It will not take an additional 8 games to reset.

So yes,  there are a lot of unknowns which screw things up for  the Computers....and the staff...and the players...and the fans. 

Biggest unknown is when will players return....also what happens when they return...not a big deal when you add 1 missing player... a big deal when you add 4. Yes they have all been practicing together but not the same as game situations.

Hopefully we will have clarity soon....tick...tick...tick

[kwyjibo]

1 hour ago, kshoe said:

Honestly, I think SLU is going to be easy money for a while. The Wiz and Pomeroy's systems have us as 12 point favorites. Vegas has us -11.5. So those are all in-line.

But look at Pomeroy and how little confidence it has in SLU overall:

- We are ranked 158 overall. My ass this is only the 158th best team

- Predicts a 16-15 overall record and 8-10 in the A-10. My ass this team is only going to get 16 wins.

 

To me this seems to be an obvious case where the computer systems haven't yet figured out last year's results/team don't matter and Vegas hasn't figured out the computers are wrong about SLU. Bet heavy on the Bills!

This is all true but some computers are ahead of Vegas/Wiz/Sagarin;   Pugh (ComPughter Ratings) has SLU + 25 and 7 Overtimes has SLU +23.  There are some computers on the other side ESPN BPI predictor only has SLU at +8, Massey is only +7, and Talisman Red is only at +7.5.

[Old guy]

In other words kwyjibo the computer is only as good as the guy who is programming it, correct?

[kwyjibo]

17 minutes ago, Old guy said:

In other words kwyjibo the computer is only as good as the guy who is programming it, correct?

Only as good as the algorithm driving it (intention, virtue, and intellect of the individual are only worthy in this context if they are embodied in the code).

[Aquinas]

I’m out of town with no access to fox Midwest, any online broadcast?

[NH]

8 minutes ago, Aquinas said:

I’m out of town with no access to fox Midwest, any online broadcast?

I’m guessing it will be on FoxSportsGo, so you should be able to login with your regular cable access.

[majerus mojo]

46 minutes ago, Aquinas said:

I’m out of town with no access to fox Midwest, any online broadcast?

Someone stated it will be streaming on the Atlantic 10 conference site also

[almaman]

7 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Or lack of interest

The Original sin to all our Situations

[The Wiz]

In the original post I joked about us scoring 80 and winning free lemonade for everyone. I won't bore you with drawing out the calculations but if the Bills had just shot their average numbers they would have scored 82. The actual game projection was 82 -70. Let me simplify this even more....had we made 1 more 3 to shoot a below average 29% we win.  Or if we shoot a very average 70% from the FT line we win.....against the worst defensive team in the nation. We out rebounded one of the worst rebounding teams by 1.  You get the idea.

Bottom line ...Detroit didn't beat us....we lost to them. Yes, I know we were short handed but the way this game played out it was winnable  at many different points. We have to play better than this.