The Wiz Posted March 9, 2006 Share Posted March 9, 2006 nm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billiken Rich Posted March 9, 2006 Share Posted March 9, 2006 I wonder what kind of percentage chance we had against Cincy in Memphis that year......... 32% sounds about right actually. We've lost two in a row, they've won like six in a row and beat the crap out of us at home..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 9, 2006 Author Share Posted March 9, 2006 The win probability on that Cincy game a few years ago would have been under 10%. As for St. Joe, the spread the first time they played us at home was--SJ by 2. The fact that it is now SJ by 4 on a neutral site means it will be tougher to beat them. Hopefully Brad can make the necessary adjustments. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billiken Rich Posted March 9, 2006 Share Posted March 9, 2006 I just hope we shoot better than 32% from the floor....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluecrewfinance Posted March 9, 2006 Share Posted March 9, 2006 not getting out-rebounded by a 100-17 margin will be important too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moytoy12 Posted March 9, 2006 Share Posted March 9, 2006 Tougher to beat them per your formula? It seems that the spread is nearly the same when taking into consideration the sites of the games. Assuming that SJU's is going to be favored over the Bills regardless of where the game is played, it seems the point spread would be increased on a neutral site as opposed to a game on the bills home court. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwyjibo Posted March 9, 2006 Share Posted March 9, 2006 St. Joe's will be there to play. We need our A game today. They actually have a chance at an at-large bid if they beat SLU and GW. It is an unlikely scenario but it is still possible for the A-10 to get 3 bids. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 9, 2006 Author Share Posted March 9, 2006 moytoy-- You are correct. The neutral site should have ballooned spread to SJ by 6. The fact it is only 4 means we have closed it by 2 and should do better against them this time. In any case, we definitely need to bring our A game and get off to a good start against them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlecat455 Posted March 9, 2006 Share Posted March 9, 2006 > >The neutral site should have ballooned spread to SJ by 6. >The fact it is only 4 means we have closed it by 2 and >should do better against them this time. At least the odds makers and the betting public think so. What does the point spread have to do with the probability of winning or losing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moytoy12 Posted March 9, 2006 Share Posted March 9, 2006 Certainly agree with you about the level of our game. We need to be hitting on all cylinders early. This would obviously serve us well against st. joes and simultaneously erase the memory of the past 2 games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted March 9, 2006 Share Posted March 9, 2006 St Joes is scary. Martelli's a good coach. We've really got to get after them right from the beginning, especially on the perimiter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 9, 2006 Author Share Posted March 9, 2006 Battlecat- The program I use has nothing to do with odds makers. After the point spread is determined it then calculates the win probability. It is just another way to quantify the numbers. For example, our chances of winning today's game are about the same as throwing a 3, 5 or 7 on 1 roll of the dice. Just a different way of looking at outcomes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlecat455 Posted March 9, 2006 Share Posted March 9, 2006 How does the program determine the spread? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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