Billikenbooster Posted February 26, 2006 Share Posted February 26, 2006 78. Still will have to win out for the NCAA, but it sure is fun to see the team gell at the right time. We won't be sneakin' up on anyone from here on out. mhg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Schasz Posted February 26, 2006 Share Posted February 26, 2006 It is pretty obvious that a conference tourney win is mandatory if the Billikens want to Dance this year. Right now that looks more doable than ever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Basketbill Posted February 26, 2006 Share Posted February 26, 2006 While it is obvious that we are in if we win our conference tourney, I am not sure we have to. My reasoning is we moved up 14 spots with an away win against an RPI team in the low hundreds. IF we win our last two games, and win two in the tourney we would likely play GW (not a gaurauntee but possible.) Our RPI improves not with the dayton game but with the La salle game, because it is away. The conference game wil be on a neutral court, and those wins will be valued more than a home win. we do that and I would not be surprised to see our RPI in the low 60's No gaurauntee I understand, but every year their seems to be a team that is looked on favorably for their play at the end of the season. Last Year Iowa state rpi 63. two year ago Washington RPI 60. It can happen but not a gaurauntee. Having the first game bye will hopefully prevent us from playing a poor RPI team, fortunately DUQ, and STBON will miss the tourney. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted February 26, 2006 Share Posted February 26, 2006 first off, it is likely that regardless of outcome, we at best treadwater vs dayton weds nite in the rpi. second vs lasalle, that too is not as impressive of an opponent as charlotte and likely a win there might only game 10 spots or so. the quarterfinal game on the following thursday will likely be against a middle of the pack team and wont give us all that much, but the semi final game would likely be a 10 point rpi boost. i.e. it would be my guess that we'd be in the 50's by winning the next 4 games. i.e. we would have to win the championship to get in as the resulting loss in the championship game would likely send us right back into the 60's or 70's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Basketbill Posted February 26, 2006 Share Posted February 26, 2006 is that I do not think it is mandatory that we win the conference tourney. Iowa state RPI 63 (2005) and Washington RPI 60(2004)were 8-2 to finish out the season, they both lost in the conference tourney yet still got into NCAA. Infact Airforce with an RPI of 70 got in without winnning their Conference tourney....We would not be much different, perhaps 9-1 in the last ten games. I do not know what changes occur with the RPI but the fact that we moved up 14 pts vs Charlotte, and Lasalle also an away game may improve our RPI a similar increment. Nevertheless I will be rooting for SIUC, Iowa, Zags, UW-Milwaukee, etc... to do well in their tourneys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted February 26, 2006 Share Posted February 26, 2006 I think you underestimate the value of a win over LaSalle on the road. Their RPI is better than Charlotte and they have a higher winning percentage. They will be tough to beat but if we do it you can expect a similar increase in our ranking. A loss to GW in the championship game of the A-10 tourney would not be an RPI killer. Their winning percentage is nearly perfect. If we win 4 more in a row then lost in the A-10 tourney I think we'd be in the 55-60 range. That probably isn't good enough to get us in but I'd watch the show on Sunday with some interest... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted February 26, 2006 Share Posted February 26, 2006 their rpi is better, but their sos is worse. and isnt 25% of the rpi the records of the teams that your opponent played? i would expect lasalle to be at best a 10 point bump if we win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted February 26, 2006 Share Posted February 26, 2006 Team A which is .500 but has played a killer schedule and has an RPI of 40 or Team B which has won .800 of its games but has played a bunch of softies and has an RPI of 50 which would you rather play? Hopefully you answered Team B. The strength of Team B's RPI is their winning % which only accounts for 25% of their RPI but will account for 50% of your RPI. Team A's strength is their opponents winning % which accounts for 50% of their RPI but only 25% of your RPI. A real life example of this is we'd be better off playing LaSalle or Xavier in the conference tourney than St. Joes. As for Charlotte vs. Temple, Charlotte has a slightly stronger strength of schedule (Cha. 133 vs. La 155) but lower winning % (65% vs. 68%). Neither is a big difference so realistically they can be considered the same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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