The Wiz Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 I never thought I would be doing spread threads on the NIT particularly if the Bills weren't in it. But in light of the fact that these games do affect the Bills Nation ...here we go. These will not be full analytical threads like the regular Bills threads...just something so you can keep your finger on the pulse (or take your own pulse). Unfortunately, the computer doesn't think this will be over quickly. In a series of simulations, the program showed that ISU will go at least till Mar 26-27 and probably till the first week in April. Not the news most Bills fans want to hear. But that's what happens when you are placed in the wrong tournament...When you wind up in a lower Tourney , chances are you are going to do pretty well. The only early off ramp is a game on Mar 26-27 when they face a tough Cinn team. Cincy is another snubbed team (37 NET...64% C2D). The computer gives that game to ISU because of the home field advantage...but thinks the game will be close. Going forward to Apr 2 ..Nova has a chance to knock off ISU but again a close game with ISU now showing a 1 pt advantage. And then there is the final game...right now the computer gives Wake Forest the championship as it feels that Wake is the best team in the NIT and consequently the most snubbed. In this game, ISU comes in as a B+ team...SMU as a B. Overall ranking for SMU would probably be similar to VCU (another participant ...but only a small chance they would meet). As you can see by the spread, the computer expects that ISU will be able to handle SMU. But this is the NIT and different teams handle this tourney in different ways that will not show up in the data. Some teams will want to prove themselves...show the NCAA that they were misplaced. For other teams, the players are thinking about the NIL, the portal or where or who they will be playing for next season. Word is that the Bills have some sort of deal...but the deal isn't done until it is done AND the longer this drags out the more chance there is that something could go wrong, Bottom line.... The waiting can be painful Sometimes it hurts End the NIT quickly And get onboard with Schertz Slu let the dogs out?, Soderball, stmdragons and 1 other like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheA_Bomb Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 Yeah the psychological aspect of being in the NIT makes it tough to handicap. Can Schertz keep the team focused? If he built the team right they're competitors and when the ball goes up they turn it on. Plus now there's an added incentive show out in games and get paid. Very interesting. I want the coach at SLU but I want a winner here. So win 2 games then pack up the uhaul. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 19 Author Share Posted March 19 4 minutes ago, TheA_Bomb said: Yeah the psychological aspect of being in the NIT makes it tough to handicap. Can Schertz keep the team focused? If he built the team right they're competitors and when the ball goes up they turn it on. Plus now there's an added incentive show out in games and get paid. Very interesting. I want the coach at SLU but I want a winner here. So win 2 games then pack up the uhaul. To your point...Player thinking ...do well and I can go with Coach Lord Elrond likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soderball Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 25 minutes ago, The Wiz said: I never thought I would be doing spread threads on the NIT particularly if the Bills weren't in it. But in light of the fact that these games do affect the Bills Nation ...here we go. These will not be full analytical threads like the regular Bills threads...just something so you can keep your finger on the pulse (or take your own pulse). Unfortunately, the computer doesn't think this will be over quickly. In a series of simulations, the program showed that ISU will go at least till Mar 26-27 and probably till the first week in April. Not the news most Bills fans want to hear. But that's what happens when you are placed in the wrong tournament...When you wind up in a lower Tourney , chances are you are going to do pretty well. The only early off ramp is a game on Mar 26-27 when they face a tough Cinn team. Cincy is another snubbed team (37 NET...64% C2D). The computer gives that game to ISU because of the home field advantage...but thinks the game will be close. Going forward to Apr 2 ..Nova has a chance to knock off ISU but again a close game with ISU now showing a 1 pt advantage. And then there is the final game...right now the computer gives Wake Forest the championship as it feels that Wake is the best team in the NIT and consequently the most snubbed. In this game, ISU comes in as a B+ team...SMU as a B. Overall ranking for SMU would probably be similar to VCU (another participant ...but only a small chance they would meet). As you can see by the spread, the computer expects that ISU will be able to handle SMU. But this is the NIT and different teams handle this tourney in different ways that will not show up in the data. Some teams will want to prove themselves...show the NCAA that they were misplaced. For other teams, the players are thinking about the NIL, the portal or where or who they will be playing for next season. Word is that the Bills have some sort of deal...but the deal isn't done until it is done AND the longer this drags out the more chance there is that something could go wrong, Bottom line.... The waiting can be painful Sometimes it hurts End the NIT quickly And get onboard with Schertz I think Terre Haute deserves a trophy. We can wait. And come on guys, the coach can target portal guys via the athletic department if need be. Chris May has that totally under control.. right? Right?? Oh God.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 20 Author Share Posted March 20 Here is an update.... ISU over SMU by 6 A lot has happened in a couple of days....a lot of distractions...not always quantifiable . In addition to the distraction, there is the question if home field will be affected. SMU however is one of the weakest teams in the NIT. In the end, ISU is the better team and should still win this game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 21 Author Share Posted March 21 Just a quick review before we get to the main stuff.... TO s were equal at 10...which mean we move on to the next 2 categories...FG%...ISU won that 55% to 48%....and rebs ...36-31 won that too...which gives you an 80% chance to win ..in this case 100%....Interestingly ISU trailed most of the game in score and TOs...but once the TOs turned around the score did too. Some things never change. The important take away in this game was the uncertainty going in....Coach and players in a no man's land...a lot of distracting turmoil,...who will be where next year, .... what about the fans especially since it is a home game...portal questions...As a result there was a great deal of uncertainty...this could easily have been a loss. Add the fact that they were down through the 1st 3 quarters ...this outcome bodes well for the Coach, the players and The Bills. CJS was able to rally the troops...change things up at half time......get the team back on track...speaks volumes about the Coach and the players....a sign of a winning attitude. As far as the computer is concerned, it was looking for ISU to win by 6-8 pts and they pretty much came in on target. It answered the computer's main question...can the team handle the non basketball distractions. The answer was yes and as a result the machine feels more confident about future NIT predictions regarding ISU. While the team could have easily called it a season and moved on to the next phase, they finished the job at hand....again this bodes well for The Bills. While I am anxious for the team to start doing Billiken things, it was fun to watch and see what a team that knows how to win looks like. The computer also thinks there is a good chance we may have to wait till April to get a final answer. Buckle up and enjoy the ride... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Regarding the computer's calculations that Nova might have a good chance to knock ISU out of the tournament, nope, it is not going to happen. VCU knocked Nova out of the tournament tonight, ISU will not do the job. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soderball Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 20 minutes ago, The Wiz said: Just a quick review before we get to the main stuff.... TO s were equal at 10...which mean we move on to the next 2 categories...FG%...ISU won that 55% to 48%....and rebs ...36-31 won that too...which gives you an 80% chance to win ..in this case 100%....Interestingly ISU trailed most of the game in score and TOs...but once the TOs turned around the score did too. Some things never change. The important take away in this game was the uncertainty going in....Coach and players in a no man's land...a lot of distracting turmoil,...who will be where next year, .... what about the fans especially since it is a home game...portal questions...As a result there was a great deal of uncertainty...this could easily have been a loss. Add the fact that they were down through the 1st 3 quarters ...this outcome bodes well for the Coach, the players and The Bills. CJS was able to rally the troops...change things up at half time......get the team back on track...speaks volumes about the Coach and the players....a sign of a winning attitude. As far as the computer is concerned, it was looking for ISU to win by 6-8 pts and they pretty much came in on target. It answered the computer's main question...can the team handle the non basketball distractions. The answer was yes and as a result the machine feels more confident about future NIT predictions regarding ISU. While the team could have easily called it a season and moved on to the next phase, they finished the job at hand....again this bodes well for The Bills. While I am anxious for the team to start doing Billiken things, it was fun to watch and see what a team that knows how to win looks like. The computer also thinks there is a good chance we may have to wait till April to get a final answer. Buckle up and enjoy the ride... So the computer is saying Flyers and Rams are in trouble next year? I like the computer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 7 hours ago, Soderball said: So the computer is saying Flyers and Rams are in trouble next year? I like the computer. The computer cannot predict the future, what it can do and actually does is to extrapolate stats from this season into the next season. However, it cannot accounts for factors like injuries, loss of players to the portal, or new players coming into a team from the portal. In other words, it cannot account for changes that have not happened yet but that will have an impact upon next season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 21 Author Share Posted March 21 19 minutes ago, Old guy said: The computer cannot predict the future, what it can do and actually does is to extrapolate stats from this season into the next season. However, it cannot accounts for factors like injuries, loss of players to the portal, or new players coming into a team from the portal. In other words, it cannot account for changes that have not happened yet but that will have an impact upon next season. I will have to partially disagree with you on this. Have you ever seen a maiden horse race...10 horses that have never raced before yet there is a favorite and an finishing order for each horse even though there is no public data. Again, there can be surprises but there can be surprises even with data. There are algorithms for everything ....see my preseason forecast when there isn't any real data but the computer uses a Bayesian model to forecast what is going to happen. In the A-10 this year, it was pretty spot on when it said that 9 teams would be bunched together at the top and pretty much had that correct. While 1 game here or there might change the order...at the end of the season their was a huge gap between the haves and the have nots (9th and 10th place in the A-10) . The computer knew that at the 8th game of the season the BIlls were doomed for the season. You could say everybody knew that after a 40 point drubbing by SIU. But the computer made that forecast in early Nov before any games had been played. Even in the game last night with all the uncertainty , the computer had a forecast that said ISU would win by 6-8pts ...I consider a win by ISU by 1-3 over the spread a pretty good forecast. While SMU and ISU have never played , the computer looked at each game that each team had played this season and then connected the data dots of the other 360 teams to the current teams through a series of simulations. There is even a "luck" factor...when things seem "even" a team always seems to win (or lose). The computer thinks that The Bills luck is about to change . Soderball likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 The forecast of a win by ISU last night was based upon two teams, intact with their coaches and with the performance history and stats of a full season of play available. It was pretty accurate and rightfully so. What you are doing for next year can be compared with a maiden horse race in the sense that a maiden horse race has some hard data available, you have valid performance history about the jockeys that are running the horses, you have valid genetic pedigrees for the horses, and you have weather information plus you know the condition of the track (dry, muddy, what have you). You also know whose race horse breeder is entering every horse, know about the breeder's jockeys, the training their horses receive, and their performance under different track conditions. As a matter of fact you have enough solid data to have a rough idea to (again in a rough manner) have an idea of every horse's handicap. People that do this for a living and study the data (racing form ? cannot remember the name). I had a friend during residency that took me to Pimlico and gave me a demonstration of how accurate you can be with this kind of date, then he paid for dinner. By the way after that demonstration, I came to the conclusion that horse racing was not for me. Basketball is completely different from horse racing. It is a team sport, horse racing is a team only in the sense that it includes a horse, a jockey, the track and the breeder. Truly you can successfully call a race if you know the kind of data I described above with enough accuracy to make it possible to bet at the races and come out at the other end with more money than you came in with. Things are much more difficult when two teams with multiple players and multiple coaches pitted against one another. A lot depends not on individual talent and capability but upon how well the team plays together and how well it is lead by the coaches. I am not saying it is not possible to make educated guesses on the performance of a basketball team for the following season, Transfer players from other colleges have valid stats, and you are capable of developing an idea of the coaches performance and how they lead their team. However, no one can predict anything that changes drastically between seasons. That refers to injuries. You may be aware of injuries that happen during the summer but projections as to how they will affect playing performance during the following season or how well recovered the player will be by the time the season starts. It should be mentioned that there is a psychological dimension to recovery from a major injury. Players may play more cautiously to avoid a repeat injury. Therefore, unless or until you have seen post injury practices or actual games, you cannot determine how the new team (the recovered injured player plus the new players) are going to perform during the season. This is exactly why you need a number of actual games for the Bayesian part of the system to become more accurate and more capable of making good forecasts. I do realize that people with a large fund of prior experience in forecasting can make approximate predictions as to how specific teams or leagues are going to do for the year. However, prior to the first game of the season, these have to be taken as educated guesses, which may indeed be reasonably accurate. You, the Wiz, are absolutely capable to do this prior to any season, but let's agree that forecasting college basketball games is a hell more accurate at the end of the season when a full season of play data and performance are available. And I agree with your computer's conclusion that the Bill's luck may change for the better next season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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