The Wiz Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 I wanted to write this piece to point out the differences between my model and The NET. It is true my model is based on The Net but I was using a NET type model before the NCAA was(while they were still using RPI). It can be argued that they too have always used a NET model type vehicle(RPI plus other factors) but just didn't call it that. In any case, the purpose of the NCAA process in the past was to obscure what they were doing....cloak it in a shroud of mystery. The NET makes things more transparent...it reveals more than the RPI BUT the NCAA is quick to point out that the T in NET stands for Tool ...that The NET is not the final decision maker ...it is part of the process ...thus creating a cloud again. A side note here...there is just something right about using the word Tool in the same sentence as NCAA. Back on topic... takes us to the "fudge factor". This is the area (about 15-20% of the the teams in the gray area ) where the NCAA gets to over rule the technology and "fix" its mistakes. The chance to "make things right". Let's look at some examples of how this works. First, let's take a look at the MVC. Not only because it is good example of how things work but because we have added interest due to their coaches and possible portal players. The big 3 in the MVC right now are Ind St , Drake and Bradley. ISU has a 29 NET...Drake a 48 and Bradley a 60. Now let's go back a couple of weeks....ISU in the low 30s ...Drake around 45 and Bradley around 50. At that time, I had ISU as a 55% chance to Dance and Drake and Bradley as NIT players at 76% and Bradley at 64%. Now for comparison let's add 1 more team...St. John's at 44 NET a couple of weeks ago...right there in the mix of the MVC teams. Yet, I had them 61% chance to Dance (they are currently at 70% today) even though they had the worst record (just above 500) when compared to the 3 MVC schools. But when we move into the NCAA Twilight Zone here is what happens. Location....MVC...Des Moines. Terre Haute and Peoria....St. John's...NYC....winner St. J Conf......MVC....Big East....winner BE/ St. J Coaches....MVC ....up and coming bright stars....St. J...HOF legend...winner St. J TV market....this is a bit different than location...it is more about live bodies ...TV is about virtual bodies...again the winner is St. J Power 6 vs everyone else....St. J again. This part of the selection committee is run by Juan Bid. There are other factors besides the above but you get the idea. This is how the committee "fixes" things to make them "right". A Drake and Bradley may wind up in the "so sorry" area. You MVC teams have done well...you have a good record...you probably should make it ...but we are.... "so sorry". Btw, you can substitute the A10 or any other non P6 conference or teams where ever I have used MVC or MVC teams. So there are 2 main differences between my computer and The NET. The NET is just a current model. It assumes that every day it posts is Selection Sunday. The first difference between my computer and NET is that mine is based on the real Selection Sunday and all that goes on between now and then. To quote Wayne Gretsky...I don't go where the puck is...I go where it is going to be. Difference 2.....My computer figures in the Fudge Factor on Selection Sunday. Obviously, this is subjective, but even so, many of these factors are known and figuring out how humans think is one thing the computer is getting better at. And as we all know , this is the NCAA ....so there is no deep thinking...just follow the money. One more observation...When the NET starts in Dec every year , my computer and The NET are not close. But as the year goes along, we start to come together. We are much closer now and will be closer on Selection Sunday as the NCAA finally starts to get near the puck. Adman, billikenbill, CenHudDude and 2 others like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CenHudDude Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 20 minutes ago, The Wiz said: I wanted to write this piece to point out the differences between my model and The NET. It is true my model is based on The Net but I was using a NET type model before the NCAA was(while they were still using RPI). It can be argued that they too have always used a NET model type vehicle(RPI plus other factors) but just didn't call it that. In any case, the purpose of the NCAA process in the past was to obscure what they were doing....cloak it in a shroud of mystery. The NET makes things more transparent...it reveals more than the RPI BUT the NCAA is quick to point out that the T in NET stands for Tool ...that The NET is not the final decision maker ...it is part of the process ...thus creating a cloud again. A side note here...there is just something right about using the word Tool in the same sentence as NCAA. Back on topic... takes us to the "fudge factor". This is the area (about 15-20% of the the teams in the gray area ) where the NCAA gets to over rule the technology and "fix" its mistakes. The chance to "make things right". Let's look at some examples of how this works. First, let's take a look at the MVC. Not only because it is good example of how things work but because we have added interest due to their coaches and possible portal players. The big 3 in the MVC right now are Ind St , Drake and Bradley. ISU has a 29 NET...Drake a 48 and Bradley a 60. Now let's go back a couple of weeks....ISU in the low 30s ...Drake around 45 and Bradley around 50. At that time, I had ISU as a 55% chance to Dance and Drake and Bradley as NIT players at 76% and Bradley at 64%. Now for comparison let's add 1 more team...St. John's at 44 NET a couple of weeks ago...right there in the mix of the MVC teams. Yet, I had them 61% chance to Dance (they are currently at 70% today) even though they had the worst record (just above 500) when compared to the 3 MVC schools. But when we move into the NCAA Twilight Zone here is what happens. Location....MVC...Des Moines. Terre Haute and Peoria....St. John's...NYC....winner St. J Conf......MVC....Big East....winner BE/ St. J Coaches....MVC ....up and coming bright stars....St. J...HOF legend...winner St. J TV market....this is a bit different than location...it is more about live bodies ...TV is about virtual bodies...again the winner is St. J Power 6 vs everyone else....St. J again. This part of the selection committee is run by Juan Bid. There are other factors besides the above but you get the idea. This is how the committee "fixes" things to make them "right". A Drake and Bradley may wind up in the "so sorry" area. You MVC teams have done well...you have a good record...you probably should make it ...but we are.... "so sorry". Btw, you can substitute the A10 or any other non P6 conference or teams where ever I have used MVC or MVC teams. So there are 2 main differences between my computer and The NET. The NET is just a current model. It assumes that every day it posts is Selection Sunday. The first difference between my computer and NET is that mine is based on the real Selection Sunday and all that goes on between now and then. To quote Wayne Gretsky...I don't go where the puck is...I go where it is going to be. Difference 2.....My computer figures in the Fudge Factor on Selection Sunday. Obviously, this is subjective, but even so, many of these factors are known and figuring out how humans think is one thing the computer is getting better at. And as we all know , this is the NCAA ....so there is no deep thinking...just follow the money. One more observation...When the NET starts in Dec every year , my computer and The NET are not close. But as the year goes along, we start to come together. We are much closer now and will be closer on Selection Sunday as the NCAA finally starts to get near the puck. Very good explanation. Thanks. The Wiz likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Your description of the process is as clear as you can make something that is designed to be unclear. I assume the main factor or one of the main factors in the NCAA decision has always been, and is likely to remain, the NCAA ideas about how to maximize the income to be made out of their tournament. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 4 Author Share Posted March 4 15 minutes ago, Old guy said: Your description of the process is as clear as you can make something that is designed to be unclear. I assume the main factor or one of the main factors in the NCAA decision has always been, and is likely to remain, the NCAA ideas about how to maximize the income to be made out of their tournament. From my above post..... And as we all know , this is the NCAA ....so there is no deep thinking...just follow the money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Elrond Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 19 minutes ago, The Wiz said: From my above post..... And as we all know , this is the NCAA ....so there is no deep thinking...just follow the money. The most spot on accurate post ever made on this website!!!! Couldnt agree more!!! NO DEEP THINKING IN THE NCAA!!! Just follow the money….. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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