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The Wiz's Preconference Forecast 2022-23


The Wiz

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Now it is time to look at this season's Billiken ghosts of the past , present and future.

The Ghost of Billiken Past

This is a quote from my preseason forecast...

It (the computer) gives The Bills a B+..again a good grade but I was hoping for at least an A- which is still very doable. The computer downgraded us a bit do to uncertainties and question marks on defense and player unknowns i.e.  performance and team gelling. The computer wants to "see the kids play" The hype was strong at the beginning of the season as fans and experts were rating the Bills high.  But the computer doesn't understand hype and tapped the brakes a bit. We started the season at B+ and we now reach the start of conference play with a B+...unchanged. The computer sees us as on track with its forecast.  The problem is we need to move up to A- to have a decent chance for a bid...quick grade review...B+ = 15% chance to make the Dance...70% NIT....A-= 70%  C2D ...15% NIT.  The real disappointment so far this season is not that we have moved sideways ....but that we had a few chances to be an A- team and we let them slip away. (i.e. games we were leading against good teams that turned into losses)...As an aside ...the Bills started last year at B+...and finished the season at B+

The Ghost of Billiken Present.

Let's start with the report cards....We start by comparing the preconference with the preseason forecast.  Normal movement is 2 notches up or down...i.e. a move from B+ to B- is -2 ...a move from C to C+ is +1.  A surprise move is more than 2 notches ...up or down.  There were 2 surprise moves down...RI and Loy both moved down 3.  There was only 1 move up ...while not a surprise move , it was a surprise that Duq was the only A-10 team to improve,  moving up 2 notches.... Some notables...Fordham while 12-1 had the distinction of having the easiest schedule in all of D1 (SOS 363). The Bills stood out by having the toughest schedule in the A10 by a mile.   92 spots above the next closest team. ....Going forward most teams will stay within 1 notch up or down from their preconference levels.

Preconference forecast.................................Preseason forecast

1. SLU...B+...unch...................................................B+

2. Day...B+........-1....................................................A-

3. GM...B...unch.......................................................B

4. VCU...B..........-1.....................................................B+

5. Rich...B..........-1.....................................................B+

6. UMass...B-...unch.................................................B-

7. Dav...B-.........-2......................................................B+

8. Duq...C+......+2......................................................C-

9. Loy...C+.......-3.......................................................B+

10. St. B...C+...-2.......................................................B

11. Ford...C...unch......................................................C

12. GW....C...unch.......................................................C

13. St. J...C-...-1..........................................................C

14. RI.......C-...-3.........................................................B-

15. LaS....D.....-2.........................................................C-

The Ghost of Billiken Future

Isn't this the scary part?

The only thing scary is the spread thread report cards which show some glaring weaknesses.  The first one is 3P shooting. Last year we had an A- in 3P shooting. This year we have a grade of D and we are supposed to be a better shooting team.    Ford said at the beginning of the year he would like to increase 3PA to 28-30/gm from last year's 18.   So far we have been shooting 3PA at 21/gm. The poor shooting triggers fewer 3P shots which  has resulted in an average loss of 5 pts /gm. The second issue on the report card is opponent PPG. This year we are giving up 71 pts /gm....3 more pts than last year.   The computer is showing that 69 is the maximum number of pts we should allow and that 67 would be ideal.  A factor contributing  to the extra opponent pts is the inability of the Bills to force TOs. We are in the bottom 20  of all D1 teams in opponent TOs.  If we could force a few more TOs,  that would bring down the opp PPG.  We try to outscore the other team and don't really worry about opp PPG.  The problem is if you go cold on shooting , you start pressing to make shots. Allowing less points will not only give us a better chance to win but also take the pressure off the FG% especially the more difficult 3P shot because we won't have to score as many pts to win.

The good news is that the computer is showing we will win most of the A10 games...Best case 17-1...worst case is 14-4... most probable 15-3.   But many of these games will be close and the factors mentioned above will be the  difference makers.  In reality , we don't need to win the conference...we need to finish in the top 4 to get the tourney bye.  Computer says the chances of a top 4 finish are 75%

Bottom line question...Will the Bills,  like Scrooge,  suddenly awaken and become a changed and better team?  Or will they continue to do the same things in the hope that the results will be different?

With that in mind, I asked the computer...will the Bills win the conference  or the A10 tourney or both?   Answer...Go see the kids play...DIFFERENTLY

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3 hours ago, BrettJollyComedyHour said:

When the computer says this, does it mean more minutes for the Momos and Sinceres of the team? 

The computer says...see "Bottom line question" in the original post.

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What seems overly sad to me in all this is only one team in the entire A10 IMPROVED it's imaginary numbers from the preseason through the OOC ---- namely Duquesne who went +2 and still us rose to a whole C+ team.  How sad is that?  League-leading Fordham remains an unchanged C team.  

Hello?  Juan?  Juan Bid?  Is that you?

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