Caught in the NET by The Wiz

[The Wiz]

Here is a message I received.  thought I would forward it on with my answer  as I think it is relevant to a lot of discussions which have been going on.

 The Wiz 

Mizzou is 9-0, NET 39, playing no one, a bunch of cupcakes.  Even Wichita State is mediocre, 4-4, NET 106.

Fordham is 9-1, only loss to Arkansas (8-1, NET 30) 74-48.  

How could Mizzou's NET be 39 with its schedule, and Fordham's NET be 99?

Where to start?  Let's start with the NET (again)...The NET is meaningless at this point. Every data set has a critical mass and until it reaches that mass the data is just somewhat random. In my model it is the 8th game.  I would never start making projections with raw data after the first game. That is why I use a Bayesian model till I reach that point.  The NET has a goal of trying to pick Dance worthy Tournament teams. It reaches its critical mass in March.  Anything happening in December is pretty much worthless.  Any team that is even close to where it should be at this point is a lucky random hit. Even in March when the NET peaks it is only about 80-85% right by design. It is designed with that leeway so the Committee can "fix things". (bad machine...here, here let the good Committee make things right) 

To answer specifics...First let's start with SLU...I had them at B+ at the beginning of the season...they are B+ now...No over or under expectations here. To get a "lock" on the Dance we need to be at least A-. We have been there briefly this season.  It doesn't matter at this point, as long as we make it to A- by the end of the season.  We were over rated at the beginning part of the season and now we are probably under rated by polls/experts and The NET. 

Teams you asked about....

Mizzou...9-0...NET..39th...LOL (the LOL is me) ...Mizzou is exploiting The NET...I mentioned this in the NET thread on the board as the Colgate effect.  Running up big scores against cupcake teams...With the understanding that 60% of the NET weighting is margin of victory.  In the old formulas prior to the NET their were caps of 10 pts.  Under The Net there is no variable for scoring margin but when you put the pieces of the NET together an equivalent of the scoring margin appears with a weighting of 60% and NO cap on pts.  So what does this mean.... It means that both Mizzou and SLU are B+ teams.  I know you like ranking numbers...so I will convert the grades...SLU...54th...Miz...63rd...Further,  if played today, The Bills beat Miz on a neutral court by 1.  How can this be?  To simplify let's look at just 1 stat ...Strength of Schedule...SLU ...A ....32nd....Miz...F-...363...Last in all of Div 1...Case closed

Fordham...9-1...NET..99th....Fordham is a C+ team...if forced to give a rank...160th...SOS  F-...357...7th worst in D1. The only reason the game with the Bills will be close will be because we are playing in NYC. ..The Bills by 5-7 pts.

And hear is one that you didn't ask about...Fla Atlantic...The Pride of Conference USA.. They will be battling UAB for the conference title. So why do I bring them up...Every once  in a while I ask the computer who are The Bills most like...in other words who are we most likely to play even...today's answer was Fla Atl.  Interestingly enough, if you check your NET score cards you will see Fla Atl listed as #11 .  As a B+ team , Fla Atl is pretty good...but 11th?  Remember my computer just picked them as even with The Bills. How many here think The Bills are 11th . Of course The NET has picked the Bills at 80th...11 and 80 don't make sense...and that's the point.....There is no point ...to be following The NET... at this point...Get the point.

Feeling kind of down as a Bills fan? The experts and the hype got you too high and now you've crashed?  Maybe the issue is you are looking at the wrong numbers. My schedule says no conference games have been played yet. The computer expects us to do well in conference play....It thinks we are the best in the Conference and will dominate...Enjoy the ride....but you better be wearing a seat belt for the bumps.

[thunderdan]

Totally agree about the importance of conference games. Given our roster, we have every reason to believe we can dominate this conference and render the non-conference losses a moot point. 
 

This team can recover, and still have a very good season. But, will they?

[HoosierPal]

2 hours ago, thunderdan said:

Totally agree about the importance of conference games. Given our roster, we have every reason to believe we can dominate this conference and render the non-conference losses a moot point. 
 

This team can recover, and still have a very good season. But, will they?

Here is the problem.  In the last four full seasons, we are a .500 team (27-28) away from Chaifetz. That is road games and neutral site games, such as the A10 Tourney.  This season we are 1-3 away from Chaifetz.