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The Wiz

The Bills over St. B by 1

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3 down ...1 to go

This will be a very close game. One difference from last week's game is this time we are favored...barely.  The spread variable is EVEN to  to 2 pts in the Bills favor....Both teams are rated at B- overall....both teams are trending at an A- level.    For the nail biters , better have a nail clipper nearby... Good chance of OT. At the end of the report card , I usually put the changes from the last game. For this one,  it will be changes since our game last weekend with SB.   First , let's look at what went wrong last weekend. Coming into that game we were on a roll trying to pull off a double bye (4th place) ...Now we are on a roll again...with again 1 to win and again it is SB between us and the goal.  So in a sense this game is a do over ....just 1 week later. The other thing  that makes this game a deja vu experience is that SB is a mirror team to us....Good defense ...bad offense (except FTs)   A big difference this time is,  we are on neutral ground.  

Lets see what the  report card looks like for this game....

...............................SLU..............................SB................................................SLU.................................SB

..................................................OFF......................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................D-.................................F+.....................................................A..................................A

FG%.........................D-..................................D......................................................A-.................................A

3P%..........................F+..................................D....................................................A...................................B

FT%...........................F-..2nd worst ITN.......B+.........................................................................................

Reb............................A+...18th ITN..............D+....................................................B+...................................B

Off reb.......................A+.....5th ITN

Changes from our last game with SB.......SLU.......UP......Off 3P%...Def FG%...Def 3P%

.....................................................................SB.........UP.......Off FG%...Def FG%...Def 3P%...PPG...FT%....DOWN...Off FG% (2s)

Report card summary....Both team are shooting better 3s...and both teams are playing better defense....Defensive edge to the Bills..

Top 100 ITN

Stls....Goodwin ...59th

Rebs....French.......73rd

Blks.....French.........67th

Blks....Osunniyi.......6th

WWN2D2W....Shoot better than last time...here was our slash....34/26 / 59......here is another way to look at it....we had 18 more shots than SB..we made 1 more basket....I love volume  but you still have to make some shots...especially the easy ones..Same thing with FTs....They had 10 more shots at the FT line...they made 10 extra FTs...which brings up foul trouble...We need to cut down on fouls not only because of FTs but because of because of our depth issues.They need to foul us not the other way around......Make the slash...all parts....42/32/60....Stop Stockard and Lofton....hold them to 14 pts....We should win the reb battle hopefully by double digits....Last SB game we had 13 TOs ...not bad but not as good as our 8.7 tourney average...an 8 or 9 TO rate would put us on the road to victory. Better games from Bess and Goodwin...last week both were held to 7 pt games and had lackluster performances....both have stepped up significantly during the tourney....they need to keep it going.

Bottom line....We have a 52% chance to win this game...which means we have a 52% chance to go to the  NCAA Tourney....Coming into the A-10 tourney we had a 4% chance of winning it ...after the 1st game...it went up to 5%...after the second game it went up to 14%...so we have come along way....I leave you with yesterday's spread thread questions +1 more....

1...Can we continue to play to our potential?

2...Do we have the stamina to play to our potential?

3...Do we want this game more than SB

4...Do we have 1 more game left in us.

And as yesterday ...if the answer to all 4 questions is yes....then WE WIN......THE CHAMPIONSHIP

Go Bills

 

 

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Vegas spread as of now is 2.5 pts in favor of St. Bona. Expected scores: SLU 58.5, St. Bona 61.0. This game is absolutely winnable, the odds are precariously balanced. To me this means that no one is certain of the outcome. The Bills can do it!

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From the original post.....

1...Can we continue to play to our potential?

2...Do we have the stamina to play to our potential?

3...Do we want this game more than SB

4...Do we have 1 more game left in us.

And as yesterday ...if the answer to all 4 questions is yes....then WE WIN......THE CHAMPIONSHIP

 

Answer is... yes , yes , yes  and yes....What a great win and Vegas picked the wrong team to win....I was late getting the spread up because there wasn't much time to gather the data and make the calculations and I wanted to make sure I got this one right because  i knew it was going to be close....Actual was 1 pt off and within the narrow spread variable of 0-2 pts in the Bills favor...A satisfying win for the Bills and The Wiz.

So what happened?...We didn't stop Stockard but we did hold Lofton to 6 pts but overall the 2 scored 28 pts..so that didn't work...St. B had a bad slash ...but we had a worse one...a dismal 37/ 18/ 46......so that didn't work...we were out rebounded ...so that didn't work either. We cut down on the fouls and had 5 extra shots...and made 1 less FT than SB....another fail....so did anything go right?...how did we win? I said we need good games from Goodwin (best of the year) and Bess (also a nice game). But the game winner ...the thing that not only won this game but won all 4 was TOs....an amazing season low of  6 TOs...I have been harping all year on TOs ...It is in every spread thread....And we did it today and all tourney long....32 TOs in 4 games... 8/gm....Usually the best team in the nation averages about 9/gm.  While this stat is important to all teams,  it is crucial to a team that has little offense. That is why I kept wanting us to make the mediocre slash of 42/30/ 60 all season...realistically that wasn't going to change much...But it didn't have to with an A rated defense and outstanding rebounding...The unknown variable was TOs. With 20 TOs/gm  you aren't  going to win any games....12 was the magic number to give us a chance to win..if we shot poorly (like today ) 12  wouldn't work   However you start averaging 8  like we did in this tourney and you will win games even if you are not favored to win. People won't give us much chance to win in the Big Dance but if we continue to average 8 TOs /gm , we will have some surprise wins.

Tip o' the cap to ...Goodwin who finally got his double double...big time...16-14 plus 3 blks 2 stls  and 3 assts and to Bess 11pts, 8 rebs & 3 assts

The only fitting way to end this post is....yes, yes, yes and yes...

As in... yes we can.....great job Team Blue

Go Bills

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