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ESPN power rankings


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Say what you will about deadspin, but the fact is that every single PR firm considers it a legitimate source now and is scared of the power it has to dig up stories no one else can. I talked to an exec from Fleishman Hillard about this a few months back. When deadspin breaks a big story, people take notice.

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So we are #16 AP and 15 USA Today... now they are "OK".

Wait, KenPom has us at 22. VCU, 17th. Close to Bilas. Whoa...

Last yr, a few know it alls lectured how KenPom was the way to go, predictive model, blah blah when KenPom had us 13th and we were out of the AP and USA, approximately 30th - 35th, give or take.

SO, which is it?

Where exactly did anyone in this thread speak poorly of KenPom or Sagarin? BPI has not been taken seriously in this thread, but I don't see anyone saying anything bad about KenPom or Sagarin.

And the issue with 'subjective' ratings last season was gone over to the point of ridiculousness. You WANT the Bills to be in the AP and Coaches polls, but those polls really are not indicative of how good a team is in relation with the rest of the other teams. Those polls are good in the sense of the media attention that it brings. The recognition by the press or coaching ranks that the team is one to pay attention to. That is why one would want to be in the voted-on polls, and as high as possible. It is a good bragging point.

The Wiz and kwyjibo have done a very good job the past two seasons in explaining why KenPom and Sagarin (as well as The Wiz's model) are superior in regards to showing how a team will do in future matchups, and where their record should end up. On the other hand, RPI is a good sum-up of a season's worth of performance, and is not a good indicator of how a team will fare in upcoming games. RPI is sort of a good grading system when you want to see how a team's record compares with their SOS. It doesn't take into account margins of wins or losses, nor how a team's offense or defense performed. All it does is take your win-loss record and all of your opponents win-loss records (and their opponents' records) and provides a measurement.

I will leave it to kwyjibo and The Wiz to explain further, if they choose to, as they are two of the 'know it alls' that you are referring to, and they are much more knowledgeable on the subject than I am.

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So we are #16 AP and 15 USA Today... now they are "OK".

Wait, KenPom has us at 22. VCU, 17th. Close to Bilas. Whoa...

Last yr, a few know it alls lectured how KenPom was the way to go, predictive model, blah blah when KenPom had us 13th and we were out of the AP and USA, approximately 30th - 35th, give or take.

SO, which is it?

Polls are just that...unscientific judgments of media and coaches. Like college football, initial ranking virtually guarantees perceived legitimacy. See, e.g., Butler. That being said, poll ranking no doubt influence seeding in postseason tournaments.

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Kwyjibo, I was trying to determine whether Pomeroy or Sagarin is a better predictive model. The both seem to be vary close in their rankings and underlying algorithms. Do you have a preference? If so, why?

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