The Wiz Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 This was probably our worst 1st round draw. I had us winning the first game in almost every other scenario. With that said RM has a great record in first round games plus I like that Friday gives us an extra day to prepare...another RM +.....extra time usually means better chance of winning. Some have belittled the Memphis 7 game season ending winning streak because they are CUSA teams. CUSA is definitely not as good as A-10 but the Memphis strength lies in not who they beat but how they beat them. In order to give us some perspective, I have created a chart not only grading their final 5 opponents (they played 2 of them twice) but also the margin of victory and who their opponent is most like in the A-10. This isn't perfect but will at least give you a rough idea of how to compare what they have done recently. E. Carolina....C+ (Charlotte)....beat them by 23 Marshall.........B...(UMass)........beat them by 20 & 26 UCF...............B- (Richmond)....beat them by 19 & 21 Tulsa..............B (UMass).........beat them by 12 UTEP..............C+ (Charlotte)....beat them by 18 Bottomline ...Unimpressive teams but impressive wins. Memphis has trailed us all season. It was only during the final 7 games that they just managed to edge us out. This game is so close that fan support may be the difference. ....I am in. See you in Columbus Go Bills Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JettFlight5 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Figured this one would be darn close. Thanks Wiz for all your analysis this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 the funnest post I saw on the memphis boards were when a fan said this.... St Louis just got beat by Xavier. Memphis beat Xavier. St. Louis is equivalent to Marshall. And we saw what just happened to the m I think we can only win IF we shoot at a high %, I know it sounds obvious, but we have wins when we shoot 18% from 3, and we shoot the three ball 15 times.. we must shoot about 35% from three and limit TO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stmdragons Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 If we can get it going from behind the arc, I like our chances in this game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoStBearBtmFn Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Wiz, does your program tell you what Memphis might do well that would give us trouble? Or where their advantage lies? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 12, 2012 Author Share Posted March 12, 2012 Wiz, does your program tell you what Memphis might do well that would give us trouble? Or where their advantage lies? My program has no way of factoring in the RM effect....ie when the Bills have 4 days to prepare their win % goes up plus an incredible first round Big Dance win %. What it does know how to figure is... if the Bills do what they do and Memphis does what they do... this will be an extremely close game. This game will be decided by someone who gets a hot hand at the right time. Maybe Loe, Ellis or KM hit a few 3's. If you start to hear "bang count the basket" it will be "game over". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mccarthyirish7 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 This was probably our worst 1st round draw. I had us winning the first game in almost every other scenario. With that said RM has a great record in first round games plus I like that Friday gives us an extra day to prepare...another RM +.....extra time usually means better chance of winning. Some have belittled the Memphis 7 game season ending winning streak because they are CUSA teams. CUSA is definitely not as good as A-10 but the Memphis strength lies in not who they beat but how they beat them. In order to give us some perspective, I have created a chart not only grading their final 5 opponents (they played 2 of them twice) but also the margin of victory and who their opponent is most like in the A-10. This isn't perfect but will at least give you a rough idea of how to compare what they have done recently. E. Carolina....C+ (Charlotte)....beat them by 23 Marshall.........B...(UMass)........beat them by 20 & 26 UCF...............B- (Richmond)....beat them by 19 & 21 Tulsa..............B (UMass).........beat them by 12 UTEP..............C+ (Charlotte)....beat them by 18 Bottomline ...Unimpressive teams but impressive wins. Memphis has trailed us all season. It was only during the final 7 games that they just managed to edge us out. This game is so close that fan support may be the difference. ....I am in. See you in Columbus Go Bills Great stuff Wiz! See you in Columbus. I'm hoping we get a big crew of Billikens out there for the game.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 I can only go WHEN they are in phoenix. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMDG Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Wiz: I just went back to see how many time you were within 5 points of being correct. I just looked at the last 11 games. you were 4 for 11. In predicting the winner correctly, you were 9-2, but I think we all would have been. based on your prediction of Memphis -1, I bet we win by 7. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe_davola Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 My program has no way of factoring in the RM effect....ie when the Bills have 4 days to prepare their win % goes up plus an incredible first round Big Dance win %. What it does know how to figure is... if the Bills do what they do and Memphis does what they do... this will be an extremely close game. This game will be decided by someone who gets a hot hand at the right time. Maybe Loe, Ellis or KM hit a few 3's. If you start to hear "bang count the basket" it will be "game over". Thanks The Wiz...but here's to hoping your program has a flaw. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe_davola Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 I'm scared of athletic teams that can take our guys off the dribble one on one. Seems like we always have trouble with that type of play and either hack the ###### of them or give up easy baskets. I don't know much about Memphis, but I believe this is the type of team they are. With that said, at this time of the year great coaching can push a team to another level. Majerus will have us prepared and I think we squeak out a victory. Bills by 4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thetorch Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 I found it interesting SLU set a record this year by beating 10 teams by 20 points or more. Memphis accomplished the same exact feat this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjray Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Here is a chart of detailed stats, SLU v. Memphis. Amazingly similar. http://statsheet.com/mcb/teams/compare?t1-season=2011-2012&t1=saint-louis&t2=memphis I expected them to jack more 3's, have more steals and offensive rebounds than what shows up in the chart. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 odds/% for destinations Rd3 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in… 1W Michigan St. 96.3 65.2 49.8 35.2 21.1 12.2 8 2W Missouri 96.2 64.4 46.7 23.1 11.3 5.2 19 8W Memphis 58.8 22.1 14.2 8.2 3.8 1.7 60 5W New Mexico 67.2 41.4 14.2 7.1 2.8 1.0 98 3W Marquette 69.6 49.2 20.7 7.5 2.7 0.9 111 4W Louisville 71.4 35.7 10.5 4.7 1.6 0.5 198 7W Florida 55.3 20.6 12.2 4.4 1.5 0.5 201 9W St. Louis 41.2 12.4 6.9 3.4 1.3 0.5 213 10W Virginia 44.7 14.6 8.0 2.5 0.8 0.2 463 6W Murray St. 60.8 23.6 6.3 1.4 0.3 0.06 1566 12W Long Beach St. 32.8 14.7 3.0 1.0 0.3 0.06 1708 14W BYU 16.5 8.7 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.02 5145 14W Iona 13.9 7.0 1.6 0.3 0.07 0.01 8632 13W Davidson 28.6 8.3 1.2 0.3 0.06 0.009 11025 11W Colorado St. 39.2 11.5 2.2 0.4 0.06 0.008 12215 16W Long Island 3.7 0.3 0.03 0.003 <0.001 <0.001 8328298 15W Norfolk St. 3.8 0.3 0.03 0.001 <0.001 <0.001 45062211 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoastBilliken Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Tiger's just dont understand your system Wiz! http://csnbbs.com/showthread.php?tid=560614 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 12, 2012 Author Share Posted March 12, 2012 Tiger's just dont understand your system Wiz! http://csnbbs.com/sh....php?tid=560614 I don't think they offer a probability course at Memphis. Either that or the BBQ dulls their brain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoastBilliken Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 I don't think they offer a probability course at Memphis. Either that or the BBQ dulls their brain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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