The Wiz Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 The Wiz never gives Vegas lines. His calcs are all based on his computer formula and the computers currently love us. The Vegas line will definitely be less than 19. Correct Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo027 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 The Las Vegas line is 19, Wiz? Or is that based on your formula? I wouldn't take Duke over BC and give 19. BC is really really bad, rated worse than both Tennessee St and SIU in both Kenpom and Sagarin. Kenpom: TSU at #181, SIU at #223, BC at #250 Sagarin: SIU at #186, TSU at #200, BC at #215 Wiz, what does your system say the spread would be if SLU and Nova played today on a neutral court? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 BC is really really bad, rated worse than both Tennessee St and SIU in both Kenpom and Sagarin. Kenpom: TSU at #181, SIU at #223, BC at #250 Sagarin: SIU at #186, TSU at #200, BC at #215 Wiz, what does your system say the spread would be if SLU and Nova played today on a neutral court? If Nova and the Bills played tonight.....Bills by 4 over Nova Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MB73 Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Wow. The Vegas line is 16.5. Shocking, because BC is a well known "public" team and a lot of "square" bettors will just jump on BC, thinking there MUST be value in a former Big East now ACC team getting that many points against an A-10 team that won only 11 games last yr. I will guess that 75% will be bet on BC. SO I would say The Bills will win and cover the 16.5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MB73 Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 If Nova and the Bills played tonight.....Bills by 4 over Nova I would say before tomorrows results Vegas would make Nova about a 6 pt favorite. (that does not mean that Nova is 6 pts better it is just that Nova is undefeated and had NCAA success up the ass lately and they make the lines that way... if you make SLU 4 pt favorite, the whole world takes Nova, and it might actually be the bet IMO. I would take Nova + 4 as a businessman, but would want the Bills to win of course) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
youjustgotKMed Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 I would say before tomorrows results Vegas would make Nova about a 6 pt favorite. (that does not mean that Nova is 6 pts better it is just that Nova is undefeated and had NCAA success up the ass lately and they make the lines that way... if you make SLU 4 pt favorite, the whole world takes Nova, and it might actually be the bet IMO. I would take Nova + 4 as a businessman, but would want the Bills to win of course) prepare to lose money then, slu would trump nova by 20+, nova is no better then washington Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Band Legend Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 I would say before tomorrows results Vegas would make Nova about a 6 pt favorite. (that does not mean that Nova is 6 pts better it is just that Nova is undefeated and had NCAA success up the ass lately and they make the lines that way... if you make SLU 4 pt favorite, the whole world takes Nova, and it might actually be the bet IMO. I would take Nova + 4 as a businessman, but would want the Bills to win of course) I have to disagree, MB. Vegas lines are much more sophisticated than public perception and are predicated on the betting patterns of very educated bettors. Money coming in to legal betting lines in Las Vegas are not dependent on the general public. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Pelican Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 I have to disagree, MB. Vegas lines are much more sophisticated than public perception and are predicated on the betting patterns of very educated bettors. Money coming in to legal betting lines in Las Vegas are not dependent on the general public. Betting lines are based on sophisticated stats and information formulated into a line AS WELL AS betting behavior. The line is used to get an even number of people betting for both sides thus the house wins. Ideally, even money would be bet on both sides and that is what Vegas is striving to do. It has really nothing to do with who wins or is better. If you notice, the lines change as money is bet especially if big money is bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franchise_89 Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Since 12 Big East teams should get in, any win over them would shut people up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo027 Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Vegas line now up to 17.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MusicCityBilliken Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Since 12 Big East teams should get in, any win over them would shut people up. BC is in the ACC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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