kshoe Posted March 1, 2004 Share Posted March 1, 2004 that is crazy talk. Try maybe 1 in 20, maybe 1 in 15. For us to be a 50/50 shot at getting an at large bid we need to win our final two games at home. (Approximately 40% chance of that per Ken Pomeroy) Then we need to make it to the semi-finals of the CUSA tourney. the first game we should be solid favorites in. The 2nd game will require a win over a Charlotte/Memphis/UAB/Depaul caliber team. As long as its not UAB I think we'll have a shot. Finish at 19-11 with 5 nice wins (3 away from the Savvis) and we will be squarely on the bubble. If you want to play bookie I'll take the 1000/1 odds and bet $2. I'm sure I'll have no chance to collect the $2,000 but you never know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwyjibo Posted March 1, 2004 Share Posted March 1, 2004 I apologize as I did not mean 1000-1 literally and while you are a bit optimistic, I think your guess is much closer than what I said. You are at least thinking fairly and realistically about Billikens chances (I am amazed about the amount of running down SLU and C-USA gets on this board). I wonder how members of the media seem to get away with using completely inconsistent and seemingly arbitrary reasoning to "select" at-large chances, but then I see so called "fans" of programs running down unnecessarily the chances of their own teams. Burwell's comment about Louisville going to the NIT would be considered gross incompetence in any other profession but yet it is treated as "opinion" even though "opinion" plays little to no role in selection (I wonder what he thinks about Texas Tech's or Oklahoma's or Notre Dame's chances). The committee or their method is not perfect or 100% fair but it is a lot fairer than what the media (and sadly some people on this board) seems to imply (but are they reporting or lobbying????). You can usually make one or two arguments about bad choices but that is usually around HOW the criteria are weighed relative to each other (how does one team's 2 big road wins compare to another's 5 big home wins or another's 9-1 finish--this all assumes close RPI ratings). I may change my mind after this year, but I remain confident that a reasonable selection will be made. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted March 1, 2004 Share Posted March 1, 2004 Here is the comment I believe you are talking about. "No. 21 ranked Louisville will be in town Wednesday to play St. Louis U, which is battling to keep its more modest (did someone say NIT?) postseason hopes alive. Remember the last time Louisville came to town? The Cardinals were the hottest team in the nation last season, and the overachieving Billikens pulled off the upset and turned Savvis Center into a wondrous hoops hothouse." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwyjibo Posted March 1, 2004 Share Posted March 1, 2004 Apologies to Burwell. I totally got the wrong impression from my own poor reading of a post here. 1000% my fault. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted March 1, 2004 Share Posted March 1, 2004 i tend to agree with kshoe on this. if we win 4 more games, i have to believe our rpi will be bubblelike. we would have beaten louisville and then two weaklings, but then the second round game of he tourney would be against a top 4 cusa team. so two more "good wins" and we would be at 20 wins. the problem will become how many cusa teams the committee will allow. someone has to be left out as they wont take 6 let alone 7. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted March 1, 2004 Share Posted March 1, 2004 your point about incompetence by he media members is a good one. this morning on the road to an early business meeting, i was listening to kfns discuss the area teams ncaa chances. the conversation was littered with incompetent points. i know we arent "casual" fans here and take the bracketology science a little more serious that that "casual" fans, but wouldnt one think that writers and radio sports hosts and tv sports anchors would have done some homework to be able to give accurate information? the guy on kfns was talking about illinois being a top 4 seed and carbondale wishing they were. not denying that illinois is playing well right now, but how can they be given a seed above carbondale is siu keeps winning? he was talking about mi$$ouri being on the bubble. the tiger$ deserve to be off the bubble talk now. the day they beat ok state pretty much put them in the tourney imo. if they were to win these last two games, and a game or two in the tourney, the tiger$ are looking at a 5 or 6 seed. the worse they would get is a 10 or so if they lose the next 3 imo. hell the teams that should be "on th bubble" for the big 12 are oklahoma, kansas and texas tech. but god forbid we include them in any bubble talk. all i want is the media to do a little homework. my gosh, it that too much to ask? hell they could learn enough to sound intelligent if they just read billikens.com. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted March 1, 2004 Share Posted March 1, 2004 Conference USA is really strong this year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the conference get six teams in: UAB, Cincy, Memphis, Charlotte, and two among SLU, DePaul, and Louisville, depending on who makes the most noise in the C-USA Tourney. During the Kentucky-LSU game yesterday, they put up a graphic suggesting seven for the SEC, six for Conference USA, and five for the Big XII, among others. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted March 1, 2004 Share Posted March 1, 2004 louisville's rpi is strange. one would think with all the losses they would have fallen worse than they have. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwyjibo Posted March 1, 2004 Share Posted March 1, 2004 If the tournament at-larges were selected today, DePaul would be in and rather upset proof (around a 10 seed). A lot can still happen to affect everybody's chances but right now I would put DePaul in because they have all the bases covered (top 25 wins, top 50 wins, road wins, hot down the stretch). It is not really close right now but yet certain "experts" . . . Georgia, George Washington, BYU, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Texas Tech -- now they have a lot to worry about right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3star_recruit Posted March 1, 2004 Author Share Posted March 1, 2004 All but one of Louisville's losses are in conference. They were 11-1 out of conference against a very good schedule. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted March 1, 2004 Share Posted March 1, 2004 but in the spirit of giving credit where credit is due, two guys on KFNS that have taken a beating on this board in particular have been pretty solid. Jay Randolph Jr. has been saying for a while now that SLU is better than their RPI shows and they deserve serious consideration if they get to 18-19 wins. He is one of the few that IMO actually understands the selection process. This morning Scott Warman pointed out the exact scenario I mentioned where we end up 19-11. He basically said what I did, that it might be good enough. Of course, for every two that are relatively educated you have a Steve Savard who said last night the only chance is to win the CUSA tourney. I honestly think the media in this town doesn't have the foresight to understand what 4 wins would mean. Another way of saying this is, if you asked them today if the Bills beat win out the regular season how many tourney games will they need, they'd likely answer "they need to win the CUSA tourney." But if you asked them the same question on Thursday morning after a win over Louisville they might answer "they need two wins in the CUSA tourney." An educated person understands the situation didn't change but the local media is seldom educated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted March 1, 2004 Share Posted March 1, 2004 that UL loses to SLU AND @ Marquette on Saturday. An early exit in the CUSA tourney could put them in a world of hurt. I was hoping for UL to lose out including Memphis over the weekend but it appears with the close loss to Cinci and the nice win over Memphis that they have gotten their act together. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tseugnekillib Posted March 2, 2004 Share Posted March 2, 2004 I wonder how different our SOS would be if SLU would have played Western Illinois, Eastern Illinois and SEMO versus our first three "buys" this season. Likewise, I wonder how many games SLU would have won earlier this year if we would have played Arkansas State, Illinois-Chicago and Louisiana Tech, (all SLU "buys" in the previous five years) instead of EKY, Savannah State and NC A&T. For my nickel, if SLU would have won any three of its five close losses ..... at Marquette, at Charlotte, at Memphis, home to DePaul and to Arizona, then our three low-rated buys wouldn't be a major issue today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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