
Crewsorlose
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Everything posted by Crewsorlose
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Perkins' problem to me is that he's a bad decision-maker. He seems like a very good 1-on-1 player, and is probably the best player on the team off the dribble or from the triple-threat position. The problem is that he puts his head down and shoots almost every time he drives. It's a JUCO habit that doesn't work against A-10 level bigs. I would wager a guess, though, that the % of offensive rebounds off Perkins' misses is higher than most players, largely because his drives require help, which frees a rebounder. He needs to learn a jump stop, or a pass.
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Most big men who aren't top 100 recruits are major works in progress. The game is so hard for 18 year-olds still getting used to their 7 foot bodies. Diarra would probably look terrible in a game now. But he can work hard in the weight room, and put on the needed muscle with added agility to become a valuable player, if not next year, then his 3rd and 4th years. We don't know what's in his heart, and we also don't know about his body (bigs get injured very easily; the speed of the game and the physicality make it perilous for guys with that kind of frame, esp. on their lower bodies). But if you're an A-10 coach, you have to take a chance on guys with that kind of size and potential. You know what you're getting early with guards and wings. Bigs are a different story.
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20 year-olds normally get better from the year before. They may not take a leap. Every other team loses players, and odds are their frosh won't be as good as the people leaving. Bringing back everyone is a huge advantage, unless everyone sucks. Can you imagine the symmetry between Yuri and Jimerson after another 9 months of practicing together?
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A meh Saturday (6-3) could have turned into a nice weekend with a sweep today, with A-10 favored in all of the matchups. Duquesne gets exposed against the #170 team in KenPom. Davidson has turned it around, up 3 now. Richmond down 7 in 2nd half to a terrible Radford team.
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Jimerson: Out for the Season w/broken foot
Crewsorlose replied to moytoy12's topic in Billikens.com Main Board
The more I think about the injury, the more I think that it doesn't sink the season. Jimerson and Perkins are very similar players with the same function, basically as super-scoring 6th men. Jimerson is a much better shooter, but Perkins can score at all levels. Both really can only guard wings, as they can't stay with super quick guards, and probably get outmuscled by bigs. So there will be matchups where they get exploited. Still, Perkins does what Jimerson does: score. And he's getting much better at it. After first five games, no double digits. Last seven, double digits in 5. And he's doing it more efficiently, making more 3s, shooting at a higher %, and getting to the line a lot, where he's 76%. Kind of crazy he got buried against Valpo, playing just 2 minutes, given how valuable he is. We will miss Jimerson because he's our best shooter, but we can get his scoring from Perkins/Weaver/Hargrove. We will need Thatch for toughness, esp. in games when Goodwin struggles and Hargrove disappears. I like who we are though, and this season continues to be promising. -
Don't understand the pessimism. I mean, yes, worrying is useless, but so is a message board. A-10 won't necessarily cannibalize itself. It will hurt the league if nobody can benefit from Dayton's top 10 status by upsetting them. But let's say Dayton goes 14-4, those 4 losses are all big wins for other programs. Big, NET-boosting wins. Nobody from the ACC is looking at things and saying, now we're all going to cannibalize each other. The league has put itself in great position, and several teams have done the same, so that a Richmond, a Duquesne, or a SLU will all have ample chances to make their cases. It's a climb for SLU, but they do have 11 more chances for Q1 and Q2 victories, as things now stand, and they're ranked 67 without a single Q1 or Q2 victory. It's a far cry from needing to win 4 straight in Brooklyn to dance.
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Thanks, Cheese, that was my point. Meanwhile, Belmont has won every game, except a lost to E Washington, since they played us. And E Washingon's only blemish is a 10-pt. loss to U Washington. Little things help. Our RPI SOS is 74, and KenPom is 219, which is way up from the 290s earlier, and that's not just on the strength of playing Auburn.
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A-10 goes 4 for 4 tonight. Not great margins, considering the competition (Niagara and Wagner 300+ on KenPom), but good for the conference. Saturday one of the last big days that will determine whether A-10 can stay as 7th best conference, and put itself in line for 3 or 4 bids. SLU - K-State, Dayton - Colorado, VCU - Wichita, URI - W. Kentucky. If the A-10 can go 3-1 in those games...
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My takeaway after some time to think: Bell was solid. I love his soft hands. He also played within himself, not getting fouled out. Jacobs was quiet but on that one o-rebound he showed a Thatch-like vertical; hit a big 3, missed a big front-end; when Yuri was out, why didn't Ford have Jacobs run the point? Goodwin was clearly struggling with his handle against the pressure Jimerson looked very good on those pull-up jumpers. Wish he had hit a 3 Collins makes the offense run; he will learn to pick his spots; I think he needed to blow by his defender and make them pay more regularly, but I'm sure he was coached not to get sped up too much. How can you not feel great about the present and the future as well? The three frosh + Jacobs + Perkins coming into his own! Speaking of Perkins, he just doesn't seem like a guy who will get his in the flow of the offense. He needs to put the ball on the floor, create his own shots, and rely on French/Goodwin/Bell to clean up the boards when he drives and misses. He's clearly the best 1 on 1 offensive player on the team. If he can improve his passing/decision-making, I think he's potential all-ACC.
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Putting this season in perspective
Crewsorlose replied to Crewsorlose's topic in Billikens.com Main Board
Are we watching the same player? I'm not seeing somebody with great lateral quickness. At the end of the day, though, if Toppin beats you on jumpers and 3s you live with it. Need somebody to keep him from dominating in the post. -
Auburn's strategy will involve two things: finding a way to frustrate Yuri so that Ford keeps him off the floor. Any fool knows that our offense runs better with Yuri driving it; getting French off the court. French is a monster and if can be limited to 20-25 minutes, it gives Auburn a much better chance at having its way down low.
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Putting this season in perspective
Crewsorlose replied to Crewsorlose's topic in Billikens.com Main Board
Intentionally excluded Maryville as that game doesn't count, but forgot about the expansion to 18 conference games. 10-2, + 12-6 means the team is 22-8. That's a team that may well dance. If the league keeps this up, wins over teams like VCU, Richmond, and Davidson will be viewed very positively. SOS will improve as BC, Tulane, and Belmont get into conference play. Team may really flatten out and finish closer to .500 in A-10, but, having gotten almost nothing from Thatch since 11/13, and almost nothing from Hankton, we should feel great. I'm optimistic. -
8-1 is a great start, and a top 4 finish in the A-10 seems possible and not far-fetched. If the Bills can somehow end up at 10-2 OOC, and 11-5 in conference, it's quite likely that an NCAA bid could come our way. There's a lot of season left to play, but it's possible. Imagine what that would do for our program. First, to finish top 4 it will mean some great victories and some very hyped games at Chaifetz. Fans will sprout up, and the bandwagon will need an extension. Second, it will pave the way for next year. There's a lot of left before we can talk about a 2020-21 roster, but what we know so far is that Jacobs and Collins are taking PT away from our one senior, Weaver. So of the 9 or 10 guys that play, we'll be losing our 9th or 10th man Imagine the hype going into next season if the Bills return their top 8 from a tourney team? Consensus 1st place in the A-10? Possible pre-season top 25? Preseason POY for Goodwin or French? And imagine how Ford will be able to leverage that on the recruiting trail? The present tastes great, but the future smells fantastic. We could be moving into a golden era of Billiken hoops!
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At the end of the day, our past opponents just need to start winning games. SOS in the 290s in BPI and KenPom. That will inevitably get better in the course of the year, but it will get a lot better if teams like Belmont and Tulane win 20 games. Lunardi is taking a little notice of the A-10, with Richmond making "Next 4 out." Unless SLU sweeps the rest of non-conf, the only way they're earning a bye is with a great A-10, something along the lines of 13-5. But for those wanting some more immediate recognition, it all rest on beating Auburn.
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This will help us in SOS, but if we lose by 30 it won't help us much at all. Just like losing by 17 at home to Seton Hall didn't help us in KenPom.
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Weekend started terribly for the A-10, but conference rebounded with a decent 6-3 yesterday, and a very nice 3-0 today, assuming Dayton can hold on against St. Mary's. People don't take notice, but weekends like this in December are little pieces to the puzzle of the team getting 4 instead of 3, or 3 instead of 2 bids. I'm imagining that the bracketologists won't be able to ignore SLU and Richmond much longer if they keep this up.
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We're 113 in KenPom. Tulane is 216. It's a neutral court game. I don't feel confident, but smart money has to be on the Bills in this game.
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I still think Thatch plays a big role on this team. The real question is how the team does when it needs another big. CF has mostly gotten away with playing Perkins or Jimmerson at the 4.
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If guards are no good as frosh, they're usually not contributing in major ways later on. Not true with big men. I'd like JBJr. to play more steady minutes. I think Ford was mad that Bell got beat down court by the SIUC big who got a layup.
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Because he didn't come in for the last 36 minutes of the game on Sunday.
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Curious what the board thinks about Ford's rotations. Yesterday Perkins came off the bench but basically didn't come out the rest of the game. CF also kept the same crew on the floor in the BC game that had the big run. I get this to an extent, but also think that players' confidence is linked to some kind of steady run. Will rotations stabilize next month? Will Bell or Hankton get buried? Will Weaver get buried (it seems his leash has been short, and I generally like what he gives on the floor). Is he just sending a message that he doesn't think they're playing hard enough? This has been about as good a start as anybody expected. I had the team at 8-5 for the preseason and I'd be disappointed at anything less than 10-3. Meanwhile, let's beat Tulane and pick up at least that one vote from the coach who had them in the top 25 this week.
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I think there interesting thing in the 2nd half was that Ford barely subbed after the big run. He went with the 5 that were out there, and he kept them out there. Notably, Yuri and Perkins missed a couple of bunnies, but those provided easy opportunities for French and Goodwin. I don't think players should pass to Perkins on the fast break unless they want him finishing. Because he's not giving the ball back. Team will rely on different guys in different games. I think CF could play Weaver a little more. He seems like a stabilizing force and a good shooter.
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Preview from a BC fan and alum: I watch most BC games. They run about 7/8 deep. Here's the rundown: Popovic is a skilled big. Doesn't look great doing it, but can score from deep, put the ball on the deck and get to the rim, and also post up. Think of him as a taller Grant Golden. He's not very active on D or the boards though. Mitchell is heart and soul of the team. Can't shoot a lick. Great in every other way. BC has terrible wings, mainly because Jairus Hamilton got injured in the first game and hasn't been seen. With Jairus, this team would probably sniff NIT. Rishwain is sort of like Jimmerson. He broke out last game and has to play more for the team to be good. Felder is active but an inconsistent frosh. Very athletic. Kamari Williams is a bit like Hargrove, and probably won't play. BC's guards are solid. Thornton a former 5* trying to get redemption as 5th year senior. Imagine they will have Goodwin/Thatch on him. Jay Heath is a good frosh with all around game, but doesn't excel in anything. Jared Hamilton, older brother of Jairus, is athletic, not much of a shooter. Left-handed Thatch. Chris Herren's son gets some run, as a shooter and energy guy. That's about it. Their players are good, but they aren't deep. Their best scorer, Tabbs, is out for the season with a knee injury. They like to stay in man-to-man, but don't defend very well. They have some dangerous scorers, but, esp. without Hamilton, aren't as athletic as SLU, and not as deep. SLU should press the whole game and force mistakes. Conte Forum will be a morgue. Nobody comes unless it's Duke, and all of the students are gone. Nobody in Boston cares about BC basketball. Not a hostile environment, but Bills may have trouble waking up for an afternoon game with 1000 fans who don't make noise.
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SLU got to BC early, I imagine, and are practicing in Boston. Easy trip for Smart.
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That's true. Just different from the claim made above. Our defense has gone from great to good. Our offense from near putrid to below average. More room to improve on offense though. Kenpom takes into account the strength of opponent. Shutting down High Point doesn't get you the same credit as shutting down UNC.