The Wiz
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Posts posted by The Wiz
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General Outlook.... We took a big hit to the report card in the last game (see below)...a reason why we took a whupping at VCU. As a result of the loss we have dropped to C-. Dav comes in with a grade of B- and currently 11th place both in my rankings and in the standings. Why is that important? Because if you are trying to escape the PIG pen that is where you need to go...to the 11th spot (one step at a time). Beating another pen member will not get you out. This game is very winnable . We don't need to play great to win . If we play poorly we lose. Let's take a look at the game
Game Preview....Dav key players are Skogman and Huffman. Huffman leads the team in Pts...Asts..Stls..Rebs...Skogman leads the team in Pts (tied)..FG% and Rebs(tied) Dav is worse on Off than the Bills but their D is better than ours. If we can step up our D a bit especially on those 2 players , we should be able to put up a W.
Let's take a look at this game's report card....
Report Card....
The card is negative...1 up and 5 down......1 up and 3 dn on Off....None up and 2 dn on D...a big hit to the card
.................SLU............Dav................SLU..........................Dav
...........................OFF..........................................DEF.............
PPG..........D+..................D+..................D.-...........................B
FG%.........C-....................C-...................D-............................C+
3P%.........A-.....................C-..................D+..........................D+
FT%.........B-....................C-.....................................................
Reb..........D.....................C-.....................D...........................C-
OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb
UP...............Off....FT%......Def....FG%...3P%...PPG
Down.........Off....none......Def...FG%...3P%
Top 100 In The Nation
SLU
Min /gm...Jimerson ...33rd...dn
Dav
Ast...Huffman...54th
Injury /Illness report and misc
The Bills....
None
Dav....None
Keys to the Game.......Stop Skogman and Huffman... We need to beat Dav at the FT line...we need to make some shots...in and out ...their 3P Def is weak...we need to take advantage of it. When Huff or Skog are not in the game we need to outscore Dav.
WWN2D2W...Target slash...47/39/75....Hold Dav to 69 pts....Match Dav on TOs AND Rebs....Hold Skogman & Huff to 21pts...Beat Dav on FTM...Out score them from the arc
Bottom line....A win would be big...it would get us away from the PIG.
TheChosenOne likes this -
9 hours ago, Soderball said:
Has the computer started yelling at you about firing CTF yet?
No, the computer only deals with data. ...no judgements or human speculation. For instance , in recent games it has pointed out the discrepancy in FTA. You will note , it didn't access blame...refs, players or coach. It referred to it as an anomaly....something out of the ordinary based on the Bills season averages. Last night in the VCU game the key stat was below average shooting.
Sometimes, after I stop typing I think the computer reads the Board in the wee hours. I am sure on some sentient level, it is probably laughing to itself.
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1 hour ago, Lord Elrond said:
WWN2D2W...Target slash...48/39/74
Real slash…36/20/94
Not going to win anything with that shooting.
You took the words right off my keyboard....You can't shoot , you can't win. Missing the slash cost us 18 pts. On TOs...if we get VCU just to make their normal amount of TOs that is worth another 8 pts. I could go on but that but we have already made up the actual spread.
In the words of HOF Coach K..."Next game"
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General Outlook.... VCU is a B team...No post season play showing at this time.. ..The Bills meanwhile continue to cling to a C but are still locked in the PIG pen. They need a win to hold onto their grade and climb out of the sty.
Game Preview....This is not the same VCU team that you are use to seeing. One of their starters (Jackson) was injured in the last game and is questionable for tonight's game. The computer is estimating that if he doesn't play you can knock off 6 pts from the spread (making it close to even) and 3 rebs. Jackson also led the team in steals. The other factor here is they don't have a lot of depth. If Jackson is missing, it will be a patchwork lineup. In the last game , VCU managed to eke out a 6 pt win against a La Salle team that is worse than SLU. If we have a decent game tonight, we could take this one
Let's take a look at this game's report card....
Report Card....
The card is neutral...3 up and 3 down...2 up on Def and 1 up on Off and 2 down on Off and 1 up on Def.
.................SLU............VCU................SLU..........................VCU
...........................OFF..........................................DEF.............
PPG..........C-..................D+..................D.-...........................B
FG%.........C....................C+...................D............................A-
3P%.........A.....................C+..................C-..........................B+
FT%.........C+....................A.....................................................
Reb..........D.....................C.....................D...........................A-
OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb
UP...............Off....Reb.......Def....FG%...3P%
Down.........Off......PPG...3P%.......Def...Reb
Top 100 In The Nation
SLU
Min /gm...Jimerson ...31st...up
VCU
FG%...Lawal...2nd (71.6)
Blks...Fermin...39th
FT% ...Shulga...64th
Injury /Illness report and misc
The Bills....
None
VCU...
Jackson...Jan 19...Back...Questionable
Keys to the Game.......VCU turns the ball over (Grade D) we need to pressure them....Don't foul Shulga...he is their FT guy
WWN2D2W...Target slash...48/39/74....Hold VCU to 70pts....Beat VCU on TOs by 2.... Rebs....even.....Hold the top 3 scores to 31 ....FTM...even.....
Bottom line....Instead of following sheep...let's shear one.
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1 hour ago, Soderball said:
Honestly Wiz; as a stats guy the stats WPB and Torch posted above should show that it wasn't an anomaly, but should have been expected.
Team that gives up the least fouls/FTs against the team that gives up the MOST.
I thought the same until i read the numbers.
According to that above chart you are referring to, it has Loy 3rd and by that logic there should have been another wide difference in FTAs.... I am showing in that Loy game a swing of only 6 FTA in that game...2 less than normal for the Bills and 4 extra for Loy...well within the normal variance of FTA in a game. That chart says conference only games...I would assume that is based on 3-4 games (small sample size). I just ran the FTR numbers this morning based on the entire season through yesterday ...SLU...24.6 (and 2nd on the A-10 chart above) and Day 14.2...Much closer. Interestingly enough for the season, we give up less FGA than Dayton . Also , we had 66 FGA in the Day game....Day had only 54.
I will stick with my original statement, the swing of 24 FTAs was an anomaly that led to the loss of the Day game.
Bay Area Billiken likes this -
8 hours ago, cgeldmacher said:
I guess I'm confused. You predicted Dayton by 18. Dayton only won by 5. You said that this was a miss by the computer, which I agree. But, your explanation for the miss is that Dayton shot way more foul shots? Wouldn't that be an explanation for missing the other way?
You are correct ...it is confusing . The problem is there are 2 separate issues. When I write a game forecast....I am trying to show the outcome, the spread and What We Need 2 Do 2 Win.
In the post game , if we win , I am looking to see what went right...if we lose what went wrong. Sometimes what goes wrong is an anomaly ...a strange occurrence that is out of the ordinary. In yesterday's game there were many factors that contributed to the loss but the one stat that was overwhelming was the FTAs. The Bills had a drop of 67% below normal on FTAs while Day had an increase of 53% above normal... a swing of 24 shots(using both teams numbers) in favor of Day. The 36 shot total is below the combined 40 shots that both teams usually put up. One standard deviation would be a combined swing total of 8-9 shots...there were nearly 3 times that amount in this game.
To answer your question about ...Shouldn't they have beaten us by more given the extra opportunities Day had? The answer is yes . Two points here...#1...They would have had more FTM had they shot FTs any where near normal...They were shooting 75.4% coming into that game and had Elvis who was 3rd ITN in FT% at 97.2% and yes even he missed one...they wound up with a dismal 55%....#2...another reason they should have won by more was the sheer volume of FTAs even with their poor FT shooting. BUT, the game is not played in a vacuum. We actually outscored them while the clock was running....We matched them in 3s...both teams had 8....AND we beat them in 2s ...we had four extra 2s (8pts)....Take the 8 extra pts and subtract the 13 extra FTs they made and you have the game winning total of only 5.
Bottom line....Had Day had a few less FTs and The Bills a few more the game's FTAs not only would have been closer to normal but the Bills probably would have won. #17 ITN Day had to catch lightning in a bottle to beat the struggling Bills. Perhaps Mar 5th The Bills can turn the tables on them.
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This was a game we could have won. Like in most close games there are many factors that you could point to that would change the outcome.
When the computer misses big , it usually means something unusual or out of the ordinary has occurred . In this game, there was an anomaly. In fact this is the 2nd time in 3 games this has happened. The Bills lost at the foul line ....No, this has nothing to do with a bad FT% (43% with only 3-7) . The Bills lost because of FTAs.
Ten days ago, We lost to GM by 12 pts. In that game , GM had 34 FTAs...15 extra shots...using season average FTAs plus game shooting % this resulted in an extra 12 pts for GM. Meanwhile, The Bills only had 11 shots or 8 shots below normal resulting in 6 less pts than average....Total point swing...18 pts...or a 6 pt win over GM.
Fast forward to tonight's game against Day...The Flyers had 29 FTAs....10 more than average resulting in an extra 5 pts(Dayton shot a poor 55%). Meanwhile, The Bills were 14 FTAs below average which cost them 11 pts. Total point swing 16pts or a Bills win by 11 changing nothing else but the FTAs.
These FTA swings are the equivalent of The Bills rolling two 12s in three attempts in a crap game. So what does this mean...were the dice loaded or was this some sort of a basketball lightning strike?
Here is my take....It doesn't matter....The real take away is we played a 17th ranked team and played them down to the wire and lost by 5 at their place. Six weeks ago we played Utah St which is now ranked at 20th (about the same as Day) and again lost by 5.
Bottom line....There is no team that we can not play with. Certainly within the A-10, every team is beatable. home or away. 12 will not keep coming up on the dice....When those other numbers start to roll out The Bills have to be ready to play. If they are ready to play in a consistent (make at least their averages) and mistake free game (keep the TOs low) they will get their share of wins.
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3 hours ago, Soderball said:
Only SLU stat that matters is 3pt%. SLU needs 60% to beat Dayton. Anything less and we lose.
Y'all need to start paying attention to this. SLU defense is f_&$ing garbage. Worst I've ever seen in 30+ years.
We shot the ball at a historic, jaw-dropping, NBA-busting rate. If we shot like that vs the Pistons we would have a chance to win. That's not normal.
So if we shoot 100% from the arc...we win? Even if are 1-1 from the 3pt line.
Duly noted.
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1 hour ago, 3star_recruit said:
Dayton is a consistent team that has been winning on defense and timely offense. Their first three conference opponents have not managed to break 62 points and the Flyers themselves have not scored over 72. We have been a consistently weak road team and poor defensively.
If we could just manage to play average defense for one game, we can hang around.
Ahh...being average and consistent.
A little over a year ago ( Dec11, 2022), I started a topic ..."The Average Path to Greatness" ...talking about how if the Bills could just play average(their average) we would win more games...the stats would be the same with more wins. The real underlying issue was consistency. Good offense one night with bad defense and then vice versa the next game. At the time I wrote the post we had just come off 2 straight losses ( Iona & Boise St.)after a 7-2 start to the season. After I posted, we beat a good Drake team and then suffered a crushing loss to SIU-e. I had The Bills as a 16 pt fav in that one...SLU = B+ ...SIU=D+ . That game pretty much killed any post season hopes plus put a damper on the rest of the season.
Why do I bring this up now? Because that post and thread from a year ago still apply ....not to mention the years preceding 2022-23. Just play average ball (average Billiken ball on a consistent basis -offense and defense) and we win more games. That applied in the past. it applies in the present and it will apply in the future. The last time we had consistent success (year in and year out ) was during the RM years. There may have been more skilled teams than RM but there were no teams that were more consistent.
We have a D rated defense...does that mean we should play to that level? Obviously not. Did you know that on TOs (a key component of defense)we were A rated...at the beginning of the year ...In the last month we are F rated on TOs....A to F in the same season = inconsistency.
Bottom line....Play consistently = win consistently....check out my 12/11/22 thread...still relevant today.
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General Outlook.... Dayton comes in with an A+ and a lock on a Dance bid at this time...We remain at C. Had we lost the St. J game we would have dropped to C-. The trend is starting to turn up for The Bills ..at least on offense. ...Second report card in a row where offense was up. Defense is holding ...low and steady. I would like to point out a worrisome stat...one that needs to be fixed if we are to make continued progress. ...Opponent TOs...This hasn't been good all season (9.9 /gm= grade F)...I bring it up now because it is getting worse...In the last 3 games our opponents are averaging 6.3 TOs /gm ...3rd worst ITN over the last 3 games. Generally, if you have 10 TOs/gm you have had a pretty good game UNLESS your opponent is only turning over 6...A negative 4 TO spread is unacceptable . We have to start bothering other teams and get that rate up. It looks like we are making more of an effort but so far it hasn't generated better results...Rant over...fix it.
While our overall numbers have improved some...we are still in the PIG pen....1st Priority is to get out of the sty. Let's look at this game to see if we can take a step up.
Game Preview....At first glance (and 2nd glance) it doesn't look promising. I haven't put up too many spreads where the Bills are down nearly 20 pts. A win over Day would be a true upset...With my numbers you need to beat a team that is a full 2 letters above you to be an upset...This qualifies. In fact to rush the floor you need to beat a top 25 team...Day is currently 18th on the NET...8th on the Wiz rankings. Although no one will be rushing the floor in Day if The Bills pull off an upset.
So is all hope lost...heck no...Where there is a will, there is a way. First let me make a couple of points...We have established that Day is a great team..an A+ team...but we have already played another great team ...A+ and on a neutral floor an even spread with Day...Utah St ...We battled them down to the end of the game and with an additional basket near the end could have pulled it out. So we can play with an A+ team.
But how can we beat the Flyers ? Did you know that Day only scores 73.4 pts a game... you say, they only give up 64.5 /gm. Did you know that St J has a better D than Day and we scored 88pts against them...Let's look at the defense cards before both teams played the Bills
Def............Day........St. J
PPG...........A-...........B+
FG%..........B............A+...6th ITN
3P%..........C+...........A-
Reb............B- ..........C
AND we scored 88 against St. J
So what's the point of this long report on a lopsided game.... For 1 thing , this is what happens when the wind chill drops to -18...hmmm same as the spread.... and my evening was canceled by weather . But the main point here is ...play like you did against St. J (with a few more opp TOs) and we can win this game. Is it a long shot? ...Sure ...but so was scoring 88 pts against St. J.
Let's take a look at this game's report card....
Report Card....
The card is positive this game with no categories down and 3 up ...all on offense....
.................SLU............Day................SLU..........................Day
...........................OFF..........................................DEF.............
PPG..........C....................C-..................D-............................A-
FG%.........C....................B+...................D-...........................B
3P%........A+...16th ITN...A+...5th ITN...D+..........................C+
FT%.........C+....................A-.....................................................
Reb.........D-.....................D-.....................D+...........................B-
OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb
UP...............Off....PPG...3P%...FT%....Def....FG%...none
Down.........Off......none....Def....none
Top 100 In The Nation
SLU
Min /gm...Jimerson ...34th...up
Day
FT%...Elvis ....3rd (97.2%)
3P%...Brea...44th (48.3%)...Santos ...51st(48.1%)
PPG....Holmes...53rd (18.7)
Blks.......".....".....28th
Injury /Illness report and misc
The Bills....
None...Finally
Day...
Smith....Nov 9....Knee...out for season
Padegimes...Jan12...Illness ...questionable
Keys to the Game.......Holmes leads the team in PPG...rebs...FG% and blks...stop Holmes ...win the game...also 2 of the hottest shooting 3P teams ITN...which ever team wins this battle will have the upper hand.
WWN2D2W...Target slash...50/40/75....Hold Day to 72pts....Match Day on TOs AND Rebs....Keep Brea and Santos under 40% from the arc ....Hold Holmes to 15 pts...no double -doubles for him..... Match team FTM
Bottom line....
If we can flood the arc with 3s
We can wash away the Day
Noah way , you say
Then let's make it a 2s day.
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20 hours ago, SluSignGuy said:
I am curious. How did the bingo work and what were the prizes?
It was sort of fun but distracting as a fan. You had to match up 24 game events (plus a free space ) on the card with actual events on the floor. I memorized the card events and checked them off as they happened. But they were a few bumps in the game. I needed a time out by St. J in the first half...I initially missed it as announcer Gus called the St. J TO an official TO. Fortunately, I found that one on the scoreboard. I needed a steal by Hughes...which I located on a live stat sheet(not an obvious steal)...And finally, I had to get an "official scorer" for my "buzzer beater " answer. SLU claimed there was no buzzer beater at the end of the half. I asked them what a buzzer beater was. They said when the buzzer goes off during a shot. I said that happened when the 30 sec clock ran out. They went into a huddle and then gave me a jersey. Soon they will need instant replay for Billiken Bingo.
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12 hours ago, The Wiz said:
This morning's number actually are showing Bills by 1. This is a result of yesterday's A10 games where all 3 favored teams(which were also the home teams...Loy, GM and Dav) lost. This goes back to my point in the preconference forecast from a couple of weeks ago where I mentioned the operative word for the A10 was parity. Even when the favored teams in the A10 win they are not beating the spreads. The result of all this is the computer is tightening up the spreads.
What does this mean for The Bills? It means they have a chance to beat any A10 opponent ...especially at home. The one problem team would be Dayton .
Bottom line...This is a winnable game tonight if we don't make mistakes (TOs) and make some shots (the slash)
The last minute change to the spread this morning proved to be prophetic as I was the only forecaster to have The Bills winning the game. And a well deserved win it was.
Let's start with the bottom line from above....
Bottom line....This is a winnable game tonight if we don't make mistakes (TOs) and make some shots (the slash).....We did keep the TOs under control. After giving up 16 TOs /gm in each of the last 2 games we only had 7 this game. This is a game changer. This is what we did in the beginning of the season when we were winning games.
Target slash...47/39/73...actual slash...46/54/82...we slashed the slash. In the first quarter we were way under on the slash ... 25% FG ...50% FT (5/10)...You have to make shots to win...we did and we did.
Stay within 3 on Rebs...St. J 39...The Bills 36...Bingo...btw I won a Bills jersey for winning the Billiken Bingo card...it was all about tracking game stats live ...I didn't even have the computer with me.
Keep both Browns under 40% from the arc....They shot 25% (2-8)...Excellent.
Finally , a tip o' the cap to Jimerson who tied a career high with seven 3PM shooting 63% from the arc (7-11) and Medley who shot 100% from the FT line(4-4) in the final minute to keep the win in the Bills column.
Bottom line...A real team effort with minimal mistakes and good shooting...And the Red Hawks flap away again ...still winless at the Fetz.
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10 hours ago, Old guy said:
Wiz, your estimate favoring SLU over St. Joe by two points basically states that either team can win this coming game. Surprisingly team rankings has not published the Vegas inspired odds yet, the game is tomorrow.
Even though you had me on the wrong side of the spread, it is OK. This morning's number actually are showing Bills by 1. This is a result of yesterday's A10 games where all 3 favored teams(which were also the home teams...Loy, GM and Dav) lost. This goes back to my point in the preconference forecast from a couple of weeks ago where I mentioned the operative word for the A10 was parity. Even when the favored teams in the A10 win they are not beating the spreads. The result of all this is the computer is tightening up the spreads.
What does this mean for The Bills? It means they have a chance to beat any A10 opponent ...especially at home. The one problem team would be Dayton .
Bottom line...This is a winnable game tonight if we don't make mistakes (TOs) and make some shots (the slash)
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General Outlook.... According 2 the computer , the A-10 is now a 2 bid conference. I know we have all be come accustom to embracing "Juan" but there is another bid on the horizon. Dayton, of course is leading the pack, and coming in at a 51% chance right now is GM (beat us and you become a contender). On the NIT front ...St. J is showing a 62% chance and UMass a 60% chance for NIT bids. Again a long way to go but that is where we are now. The Bills meanwhile are still wallowing in PIG land. The good news is ...if we beat anybody we will move up quickly. Let's at least get out of the pen.
Game Preview....St. J comes in at a B+...we remain at C but the numbers are still weakening . We need a win to stay at C. Grade wise it looks like St. J is the better team . But an important factor here is SOS...St. J = F+....SLU =B. ...This is kind of like a rear view mirror warning ..."objects are closer than they appear" ...in this case St. J is closer than they appear. But with that said the Hawks have some players that can shoot. ...Fleming, Reynolds and X Brown are all listed in the Top 100 (see report card below). They play a tough defense like GM but are not as good on offense as the Patriots. Let's see what the report card looks like....
Report Card....
The card is positive this game with no categories down and 2 up....and believe it or not the 2 categories are on Def. The defensive report card is still dismal but there has been some improvement on opp reb and opp FG %. ...Be thankful for small miracles.
....................SLU............St. J..........SLU..........................St. J
..............................OFF..........................................DEF.............
PPG...............C-................B-.................D-............................B+
FG%...............C.................C...................D-...........................A+..6th ITN
3P%...............A-................B+.................D+..........................A-
FT%...............C..................C+.....................................................
Reb...............D-..................B...................D+............................C
OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb
UP...............Off....none....Def....FG%...Reb
Down.........Off......none....Def....none
Top 100 In The Nation
SLU
Min /gm...Jimerson ...40th
St. J
Asst....Greer...97th
FT%...Reynolds...84th
Blks...Fleming...92nd
3P%...X Brown...54th (48%)
2P%...Fleming...34th (68%)
Injury /Illness report and misc
The Bills....
Parker ....Nov 17....Out indefinitely...fractured foot....no more recent official updates
Meadows...Jan 6...Questionable...Head
St. J...
Lange...Dec 6 ....Out indefinitely ...Concussion
Winborne...12/22...Out indef...personal matter
Haskins...11/14...out for season...requested red shirt.
Keys to the Game.......
WWN2D2W...Target slash...47/39/73....Hold St. J to 72pts....Beat St. J on TOs...Stay within 3 on Rebs....Keep both Browns under 40% from the arc....Hold Reynolds, Fleming and Green to 31 pts.
Bottom line....If The Bills can keep TOs under control...we can put the Hawks in our rearview mirror.
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1 hour ago, 3star_recruit said:
You are a numbers guy. In addition to being one of worst defensive teams in D-1, this is one of the worst passing teams in D-1. You're not going to survive in the 2nd half once the teams turn up the pressure if you're bad at passing AND you're bad at stopping teams on the other end.
If the players aren't good at a particular skillset -- passing, defending -- I don't think that's fixable this year. You can, for example, go from being a horrible defense to a below average defense. You can only fix that problem by bringing in players who are better defenders.
The coaching staff hoped to have a Big Three to cover up their offensive and defensive deficiencies. For much of the season they only had a Big One (Jimerson), recently they became a Big Two (Jimerson and Big Brad). Not enough. They need a healthy Parker.This team is so bad at defense, they need to average 80 ppg to win. Maybe after marginal improvement on defense they can get by with averaging 77.
I am showing The Bills are giving up an average of 76 pts /gm, not 80. So if you think with some marginal defensive improvement The Bills could knock off 3 points that makes it 73 pts/gm. SLU is currently averaging 73.5 pts on offense. It sounds like you think with some marginal improvement on defense, we could start winning some games.
I agree with you.
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7 hours ago, TheChosenOne said:
The game was never within reach after the first few minutes of the 2nd half. We had no offense and couldn’t defend. Obviously if we don’t turn the ball over it produces a different result, but we did and got blown out. I probably don’t need to read a computer breakdown of a game that I watched. TOs (both turning it over - 16 and not forcing TOs - 5) and defense continue to be problems for this team and until the final 3 minutes we did not hit enough 3s to keep the game competitive (we were 3-15 from 3 prior to the final 3 minutes, so those final 3 minutes completely skew that portion of the slash line). Wiz, I don’t mean to go after you, I’m just pissed off.
I understand you've been under the weather. When you are feeling better you may wish to come back and reread some of these posts.
I was not trying to tell you or other posters things you already know about the TO problem. The point I was trying to make was that by providing the data and simulation runs, it show how just a small change in TO results (4-7 per team) can result in a huge point swing(19-21pts) in a game. And these changes are not extraordinary . Asking the Bills to hold TOs to 12/gm is not an unreasonable request since not only are they averaging that for the season but until recently they were in the 10-11 range. And also to have The Bills be able to force 12 TOs against GM was very doable. GM has not only been averaging 12 TOs/ game (5 against The Bills) but they have done so against weak teams ( SOS = D-..... Teams that are much weaker than The Bills). TOs are damaging where ever they occur....beginning , middle or end of the game. In this game as well as the LOY game they came fast and frequent in the first half....digging quick holes. Sloppy play, bad passes and protecting the ball are fixable problems. Again, this is just one way the computer saw the GM game as winnable.
Hope you are feeling better soon....sending healing energy your way and The Bills way so you may both get back to your better selves.
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22 minutes ago, TheChosenOne said:
It feels unproductive to analyze this as a 12 point loss. The end of game run produces flawed conclusions. That was not a potential win that slipped away, they ran us and when the result was decided Hughes x3 and Thames hit some 3s while they were content to run out the clock, but that was merely cosmetic during garbage time. We are one of the best garbage time teams I’ve ever seen though.
I understand what you are saying. The computer looks at the extra 11 TOs as not just 11 extra points for GM but 11 lost opportunities for The Bills ( more pts for The Bills and less for GM)...The data shows that SLU and GM are equal in season TOs...around 12/gm. In a game simulation with TOs equal at the normal 12 a piece and everything else pretty much the same....there is 21 pt swing and SLU wins by 9. The computer stays with the conclusion that this was a winnable game.
Computer bottom line...Failure was caused by human error.
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Well we came in pretty much at the point spread. The slash was almost right on....48/35/73 vs the target of 48/40 /73....just one 3P shot off....it was pretty much a winnable game. But again the same 2 factors that beat us in the Loy game did it again in this one.....FTs and TOs
1...FTs...We lost the Loy game shooting a horrific 42%....This game we hit the target exactly...73%...BUT...GM had an EXTRA 23 shots and as a result made an extra 21 pts.....GM 27-34 vs the Bills 8-11 .... GM had an extra 14 shots over their average which resulted in an extra 12pts...final game spread ...12 pts.
2. TOs ...The Bills for the second consecutive game had 16 TOs....Over 15 /gm is considered an F-....Also, a general rule of thumb is that any time you have 10 or more TOs than your opponent it is an automatic loss...today's spread was 16-5....Pts off TOs 21-10...11 extra pts for GM...plus when you consider the lost opportunities for the Bills to score on those extra 11 TOs it is well above 11pts....again a game changer.
Bottom line...Took too many fouls and turned over the ball too much...another potential win slipped away.
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38 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:
Meadows is tied for 33rd ITN in Assist to Turnover Ratio.
Thanks for the update...He was missing from my list do to a technicality. My qualifiers are tougher than the NCAA which tends to be more inclusive than elite. My list has 7 qualifiers ...all related to mins and pace of mins....e.g. on pace for 300 min /season...120 min pace for home games ...etc. The technicality is ...one of the qualifiers is 21 mins/ last 2 weeks. Of course The Bills didn't play for 2 weeks. Had we played a few days ago , I am showing he would have come in at 96th ITN....once again the difference in rankings has to do with more stringent qualifiers.
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General Outlook.... The Loy game was painful because had we just shot our season FT average we probably would have won the game. But as Coach K use to say after a loss....next game. Unfortunately, it doesn't get any easier. The good news is we hung onto our grade of C AND any games we win going forward will boost our GPA quickly.....the bad news is we are trending down. Can we turn the ship around? Parker would be a plus but it doesn't look like he will be ready for this game. If we cut down the TOs and just shoot average and play a little defense we can win any game on any given night. Let's take a look at what Sat has in store for us.
Game Preview....The Patriots enter the game with a B+ and listed as the 2nd best team in the A-10 on The Wiz scale. They play 4 guards and a forward. One of their guards K Hall is 17th ITN in reb and 6th in Dbl-Dbl tied with 7'4" Zach Edey of Purdue and 7'2 Hunter Dickinson of KU. How can a guard do that? ....because he is 6'7 and 230 . And of course, he isn't their only threat. Kelly is their "big man" (6' 9") and is shooting 57% from the field while Maddox is their 3P threat. So are we doomed ? ....not yet....While they have great numbers on Off and Def there are some weak spots for the Bills to exploit. GM doesn't play 3P def (good time for the Bills to get hot from the arc) and they have a tendency to TO the ball if bothered ( a good time for the Bills to protect the ball and go after the other team). Perhaps the secret to this game is for the Bills to come out at the tip off and play as if there were 2 min left on the clock and we are down 3 AND do that for the entire game.. Play with a sense of urgency.
Report Card....
Report card... The report card is showing negative with no categories up and 3 down. Offense is average - FT% fell a full grade....Def is limping ...badly.
....................SLU.............GM..........SLU...........................GM
..............................OFF..........................................DEF.............
PPG...............C-................C.................D-............................A-
FG%...............C.................A-................F+...........................A+..9th ITN
3P%...............A-................A-.................D+..........................D+
FT%...............C..................B.....................................................
Reb...............D-.................B...................D..............................A-
OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb
UP...............Off....none....Def....none
Down.........Off......FT%....Def....FG%...3P%
Top 100 In The Nation
SLU
none
GM
Reb....Hall....17th
FT%...Maddox...19th(93.8%)
Dbl-Dbl...Hall...6th
Injury /Illness report and misc
The Bills....
Parker ....Nov 17....Out indefinitely...fractured foot....no more recent official updates
GM...
Dinkins....G...Nov 6.....Back....Out indefinitely
Keys to the Game.......Stop Hall or at least slow him down. Protect the ball...pressure them ... make some 3s & FTs...play with a sense of urgency.
WWN2D2W...Target slash...48/40/73....Hold Hall, Maddox and Kelly to 34 pts....Beat GM on TOs...Stay within 3 on Rebs...Hold GM to 72 pts
Bottom line....If we close the Hall, we can win this game, by George.
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1 minute ago, SLU_Nick said:
The threes that Watson were shooting were absolutely wide open. I think that was consequential. It wasn’t is running into bad luck with him hitting contested shots.
this team is an F
I hear what you are saying but Watson still had an exceptional night...He usually shoots 2 of 7 when he is having a bad night or heavily contested ...when he is " on" or open he makes 3 of 7. ...5 of 7 might be difficult for him in a gym by himself in practice.
Again, the point is we just needed to shoot Billiken average numbers and we win no matter what Watson does.
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I will try to simplify this.
First , The Bills did not look ready to play a t the opening buzzer. They were out of sync....Like a first game of the season.....especially the first half of the game.
Let's look at the key factors....
Watson had a career night...that 1 game that far exceeds...he came in averaging 9.7 pts /gm...tonight 24pts....His slash coming into tonight was a very weak...39/31/63....Tonight he was 70/ 71/ 56...not even close to a sustainable level. Throw in 6 rebs and 4 steals and you have a career night.
BUT.....
Even with all that... this game was winnable...How? By The Bills playing just an average Bills game...Let's look at the numbers.
1...TOs...especially the first half...The out of sync Bills had 11 TOs....That is what they average for a full game...Let me repeat that ...The Bills had an entire game of TOs in 1 half....Hard to come back from that.... Again, let's simplify...points off TOs...Bills 14...Loy 21...the difference is 7 pts...difference in game pts ...7...the difference in the game
2..Slash....Projected (which is close to the Bills season slash)...46/39/73...actual slash...42/35/42... we shot the same from FT line as we did from the field...never a good thing...time to break it down. Here is what The Bills needed to do to make the projected average season slash....1 more 2/ 2 more 3s/ and 6 more FTs ... all that equals...2+6+6=14pts. What this means is that even with Watson having a career night AND a dismal TO stat the Bills still could have won by 7 with an average shooting night. Making some FTs alone probably would have saved the day....42% is embarrassing.
Bottom line ...If the Bills just shoot average tonight ...they win.... even with a career Dez night plus butter fingers.
Bay Area Billiken and CenHudDude like this -
16 minutes ago, cheeseman said:
I think he may have been being sarcastic?
Not being sarcastic. I ran the numbers to show what would happen if you just changed a stat by moving it way out of the normal area.....you can't always fix the situation by moving another stat to try and balance it out. There is a point of no return on data.
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2 hours ago, Soderball said:
Everything for this team just boils down to 3pt%; almost everything else doesn't even matter.
We could have 30 TOs -- we just need to shoot 80 or 90% from trey. That's what Ford has recruited because he can't build a roster.
This just isn't true.
You can make up numbers but you can't make up facts. I agree that 3 pt shooting is important within the context of the other stats. But raising one number way up and trying to balance it with another especially when the starting numbers are not realistic...is... well......just not realistic.
Raising TOs to 30 will cut down on the number of 3PA which in turn will cut down the number of 3PM. Let's look at an example...I could only do this after the computer stopped making fun of me..."Would you also like to know how many MPGs a Rambler gets" joked the machine.
Here is what the simulation looked like if the Bills gave up 30 TOs to Loy. In the normal game tomorrow, we are forecast to win by 2....74-72. Thirty TO's would change the score with Loy-C winning the game 92-56. Then we fix things by having the Bills shoot 85% from the arc....remember we are now getting a lot fewer shots because of the TOs....and BINGO...we have 4 more 3PM at 85%....and lose the game 92-68.
Bottom line....simple math isn't simple and simple logic doesn't win games. I prefer to use real data when doing simulations.
cgeldmacher, billikenbill, MariaReynolds and 1 other like this
The Bills and Dav EVEN
in Billikens.com Main Board
Posted
Good question...We will have more of an answer after the Wed game and we see who takes up the extra minutes. Here is the way it looks now ...at first glance, it looks like a big hole to fill.... 9.7ppg...4.1 reb...nearly 24 min/gm. The computer though looks at the trend and sees a guy who has faded a bit in recent games . In 5 of the last 7 games...he has scored 3.8ppg...4.2 rebs...in nearly 19 min/gm. So the real question is can we get somebody(ies) to come in and play almost half a game and score 3.8 pts and get 4.2 rebs. I think if you take the 19 min and spread them around the answer is yes. Add 4 more min to EZ and Zhang, 5 more min to Parker and 6 more min to Thames and you should be able to make up the pts and rebs easily. These are all players that have gradually been adding minutes since they have started to play. Did you know that Parker rebs at the same rate Dalger did?
The real loss here is depth. I think we are OK for this game. It is very close....the computer says it could be OT...that would cause us a depth problem. Hopefully, we step up in this game and that won't happen. If we play our game...avoid TOs and make our slash , we should win.
Long term, the depth card could be an issue if we lose anyone for an extended period. FT trouble could also be an issue, so less careless fouls going forward.
Bottom line...We can withstand the blow of Dalger leaving. We will have an answer on Wed how those extra mins will be used ...Use them wisely and we could win.