The Wiz

This will be a tough game. I didn't want to post this yesterday as I wanted to bask in the victory over Jax.

We had it all the way. The people who sat next to me left when we were down 18. Too bad...they missed a good game.

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It will not make a difference in this game.

Maybe Duke will outshoot us and maybe they will outrebound us but one thing is for sure, they will definitely wear us down with their depth. You can't learn depth. That is why if Willie and KM come back this year even if they are rusty or not able to play at full strength ...those extra few minutes they give can make a huge difference.

If we can keep it to less than 20 that would be a positive.

It looks to me as follows.... NCAA....Richmond & Temple NIT...Duq. & RI CBI...St. Bonn & X If we have a good finish we make CBI...a great finish NIT...if we win out NCAA

Well the good news is we are better than Bradley....

Richmond will be the team to beat this year. X will just have an OK team ...about on the same level as the Bonnies.

An upset win for St. Bon over St. John...I had St. John by 14 points. The Bonnies beat a good St. John's team at SJ. A quality win for the A-10.

Thank you kshoe for catching that. I was on the road and entered the data late at night and screwed up. I usually am not that different from Pomeroy. I am currently showing Bill by 3 over Jax. That is subject to change depending on how the Bills do vs Duke on Sat. I will post my final line on Mon(Dec.13) after Jax plays their game against Winthrop. I am waiting for the Bradley vs Duke game on Wed. before I post the Bills/Duke game.

I am showing Jax by 10 right now subject to change depending on we do at Duke. I would rate Jax similar to Mizzou at this point in time.

Here is what I had for tonight..... Harvard by 18 over Fordham....won by 23 Old Dom by 1 over Richmond ...won by 7 Geo Mason by 17 over GW...won by 14 E Carolina by 6 over Charlotte....won by 1 Drexel by 17 over St. Joe....won by 12 Temple by 6 over Cent Mich....won by 12 UMass by 1 over Quinn...won by 2 Pitt by 13 over Duq....won by 14 Dayton by 1 over E Tenn St.....Lost by 5 Xavier by 6 over Mia OH ...lost by 11 So the only real surprise of the night was Xavier's loss. Dayton was favored by 1 so that wasn't a big deal. Most of these teams that beat the A-10 teams were pretty good.(except maybe Mia OH...that shouldn't have happened) I think Richmond is the best team in the league right now. They lost to a very tough Old Dom team. I think Dayton is the most over rated team in the conference and Duq is the most under rated. I would rank the Bills 8th in the A-10 at this point.

If we shoot a more normal 70% from the FT line and they shoot a more normal 78% from the FT line...we win...changing nothing else in the game.

This will be our toughest game so far this season but we can win this game by cutting out a few turnovers and making a few free throws.

I thought this was a good game for the Bills. We finally learned how to win at the end unlike the AP and Ga games. I think the problem is our lack of depth. Afterall we are missing 2 players. The good first halves followed by bad second halves, more turnovers and mistakes near the end, long dry spells with little or no points (usually in the 2nd half) , building up a lead and trying to hang on, shots that are falling short....these are all signs of a tiring team. With 2 more srarters on the team, it would make a huge difference. I think as the season goes on and we become better conditioned we will win a few more of the close ones. The added experience will also be valuable as we learn how to hang on. And finally if KM comes back this year it will be a huge help. In the meantime. we will have to hold on for some exciting and sometimes disappointing rides. At least last night was a first positive step.

The upcoming Portland vs UC Santa Barbara this Sat. should be a close and interesting game. The game will be at Portland. We are very similar to UCSB. The game may be a good indicator of how we will do against Portland on Tuesday.

IUPUI is not that different than Ga or AP. I said in an earlier post if we could play Ga or AP again I would still pick us to win. So this may turnout to be the next best thing to a do over. If we win this game, than we have grown. If we lose we are back to square one. If we can just cut out a few of the turnovers from the Ga and AP game we should win. Hopefully, the third time is a charm.

+1 This will be a good experience for us. We will be playing the best which will ramp our game up. That will help us in future games. Once you have played the best the Xaviers and Temples will seem less daunting. Duke is not use to seeing defense and we will try to throw a shell on them. This may throw them off a bit and I think we keep the game close for awhile. They have so much depth though, they will eventually wear us down. However if they take us a little to lightly and we can stay close into the 2nd half....there is always an outside chance...

Prior to the Dayton game, I had Sav St losing to Dayton and the Bills losing to Duke both by about 25 1/2 pts. As a result of the Dayton close call, the Dayton/SS gap has closed to 19 pts. Still a blowout but a big jump for SS. Hopefully the Bills can keep it close.

+1 The comparison was not so much team ranking but more that the point spreads would be similar. While Sav St would not be considered as big an upset as the Bills beating Duke (Dayton not rated) it would be the same in overcoming a major point difference. (20+ points)

Dayton barely beat Savannah St. one of the worst teams in the nation (on the same level as SIU-Edwardsville). Final score 61-59. This would have been a major upset....the same as if we would beat Duke in 2 weeks.

They will probably finish 2nd or 3rd behind Murray St.

I would say our inexperience and lack of depth are starting to feed into the numbers now. But even with that said we are still the better team compared to AP or Georgia. If we were to play either of them today I would still pick the Bills to win by 3. (you can see what the 2 losses have done to the spreads) Both of those teams are OK and we are slightly better. It may take us a few more games to reach our potential. As for Tenn St., I would say they are similar to St. Joes in terms of how I would rank them compared to someone in our cinference.