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General outlook The outlook for the A-10 is parity as it is with D-1 schools overall. Parity means a move to the middle ...good schools aren't as good and bad schools aren't as bad....with differences between good and bad narrowing. You can see that in the A-10....only 1 good team and 1 bad team (no not us). Parity in the A-10 today means 10 of the 15 teams are around grade B ...ie little difference between them. There will be a number of "upsets" in conference play this year. While teams and fans will be surprised, part of what will be happening will be parity at work. The reasons for parity increasing is the NIL and easier transferring. This is a trend that not only will continue but will become more pronounced as NIL monies increase and transferring becomes even easier. The word "rebuild" has new meaning. Ten years ago, rebuild was a process of 3-4 years of adding players and developing them into a winning team. Now that can be done in a year using NIL and transfer. One only has to look at the current NET to see the difference...Fla Atl...6th in NET....Indiana St...23rd and ahead of NC and KY...James Madison ...30th and ahead of Nova and Mich St and even Liberty at 48th is ahead of 12-0 Ole Miss. If The Bills step up their NIL game they could take a big step up ...fast. A-10 outlook In this year's A-10 forecast , I have changed from a regular report card ...to a super report card. Besides showing my own program , I have also included 3 other important and popular ranking services for comparisons....The NET, Vegas and KenPom. I will assume that all readers here know what the NET and KenPom are. The Vegas ranking is a compilation of all the sports books in Vegas using their Base. The Base is what the true ranking of a team is before any betting is done...the Base that Vegas uses as a starting point...once betting starts the numbers skew. As you all know , I like to use grades on everything....not only because it is more college like but it helps deal with parity. Grades put teams that are similar in the the same category. For instance when you see a team that is #225 vs #168 you say big difference. Yet to me, it is a C- vs a C...a minor difference ...Or a #35 team vs a #17 team...you might think not much difference there but it is an A- vs an A+... a bigger difference between those teams than the 225 vs 168 ones. So then, to make this all work for comparisons sake, I have converted all the different rankings...KenPom, Vegas and The NET to a grade system to evaluate the upcoming A-10 conference. The Super Report Card.....Enjoy....We will discuss afterwards... ...................The Wiz...........The NET...........KenPom.....Vegas 1. Day..............A......................A......................A-................B+ 2. St. J............B+....................B+....................B+................B 3. GM..............B+....................B+.....................B................B- 4. Duq.............B+.....................B+....................B................B+ 5. VCU.............B.......................B......................B.................B 6. St. B.............B......................B+....................B+...............B 7. Rich..............B.......................B......................B.................B- 8. UMass.........B.......................B......................B.................B- 9. GW...............B-.....................B-.....................C+..............C+ 10. Dav.............B-.....................B-.....................B-...............B- 11. Loy..............B-......................C+....................C+.............B 12. LaS............C+......................C+.....................C..............C 13. SLU............C........................C-......................C-............C+ 14. Fham.........C-.......................D+......................C-...........C+ 15. RI................D+......................D+.......................D+.........C It is interesting to note that of the 3 rankings , I am the closest to the NET...The Wiz... 10 matches (including 9 0f the top 10)....KenPom ...9 matches ...Vegas 3 matches...Of course, Vegas just uses their rankings as a starting point before betting. While the A-10 is a small sample size , it seems to hold on the larger D1 model....The Wiz 251 matches....KP....222....Vegas 72. The NET itself is setup as though every day is selection Sunday...no forecasting ...let's just pick teams today. It is not an accident that my model is close to the NET...that's the way I planned it. I would argue that I had the NET before the NCAA. In those days when the NCAA used the RPI ...strange things use to happen to get teams Dancing. So I modified the RPI into an adjusted RPI to forecast not only games but the NCAA picks. The NCAA then came up with a new system...The NET...which looked a lot like my adjusted RPI...I made some further adjustments and have a model that can forecast games and Dance bids.....It will never be exact ....there is a purposeful 15-20% fudge factor in the NET....that factor is the human /subjective factor.....You know in case you need to get a favorite team in (Power 5). As for the super report card, there is good news and bad news.....The bad news is we are showing as a PIG team right now. The good news is that with Parker coming back and Ezewiro playing a larger part of the 2nd half of the season that even a small boost would be huge in parity A-10. In addition, since we are the underdog in most games going forward... wins and beating the spreads will help us make up ground. Do you remember all those years when we were winning games and people said it was hard to move up in the rankings because the A10 teams weren't that good .....Not true this year...win and we make up ground. Keys to the conference...The computer doesn't see us winning the A10 but it does see us with a chance to make it to 4th which gives us a chance to Dance. Assuming the normal... we win some we weren't supposed to and lose some we should have won and those games even out ....I asked the computer how do we get to 4th place? First, we need to get to a grade of B which the computer thinks is doable. It thinks that 4th place will be taken by a B team. It sees 4 key games for The Bills.... Win GM away (Jan 6)....win Duq away (Feb 20) and then at least split with St. J starting with a win on Jan 10 at home....So the next 3 games are important....The Loy game to get ourselves together and then the GM and St. J which are key matchups. Bottom line....If we can stay healthy and avoid shooting 8% from the arc with no 10 TO differential games, we can do some damage in the A10 and give ourselves a chance to Dance....... Protect the ball And make some 3s Get a rebound And we'll win with ease.

It's annoying as hell to watch Ford struggle with teams whose coaches make 1/5 or 1/6 of what he does.. at home. He is no underdog story, he is no comeback story, he is the story of a grown man who sucks at his job. Fire Ford.

In hindsight, fair. But, if you saw that ending coming, you're either TJ Hargrove or Miss Cleo.

'Twas the night before Christmas when all through the Fetz Nothing was stirring, not even the nets; The banners were hung from the rafters with care, In hopes that The Wiz would soon be there; The fans were nestled all snug in their seats; With visions of Bills wins, while they munched on their treats. And Mama in her sweatshirt, and I in Bills blue Had just settled in to watch a basket or two. When on Compton and 40 there arose such a clatter, I sprang from my seat to see what was the matter. Away to the window I flew like a flash And then flung open the door, in a very mad dash The moon on the breast of the new fallen snow, Gave the luster of mid-day to objects below; When, what to my wondering eyes should appear,, But a basketball team as quick as reindeer, With a little old driver, so lively and all biz, I knew in a moment it must be The Wiz. More rapid than eagles his coursers they came, And he whistled and shouted and called them by name: Now! Jimerson, now! Hargrove, now! Dalger, oh my lord, On! Medley, on! Meadows, on! Hughes, and Coach Ford; To the top of Gate A ! To the top of the wall ! " Now dash away ! Dash away ! Dash away all !" As dry leaves that before the wild hurricane fly, When they meet with an obstacle, mount to the sky; So up to the arena top the coursers they flew, With a sleigh load of stats and The Wiz too: And then in a twinkling I heard on the floor The bouncing of b-balls making baskets galore. As I drew in my head, and was turning around, Down Section 103 The Wiz came with a bound: He was dressed all in Bills gear, from his head to his toe, And his clothes were all blue, he was ready to go; A bundle of spreads was flung on his back, And he looked like a peddler just opening his pack: His eyes- how they twinkled ! His dimples: how merry, His cheeks were like roses, his nose like a cherry; His droll little mouth was drawn up like a bow, And the beard on his chin was as white as the snow; The stump of a pipe he held tight in his teeth, And the smoke it encircled his head like a wreath. He had a broad face, and a little round belly That shook when he laughed, like a bowl full of jelly: He was chubby and plump, just like a Billiken, And I laughed when I saw him and thought Gee Williken; A wink of his eye and a twist of his head Soon gave me to know that The Wiz had a spread. He spoke not a word, but went straight to his work, And calculated point spreads, ; then turned with a jerk, And laying his finger aside of his nose And giving a nod,… BAM …up the concourse he rose. He sprang in the Chaifetz , to his team gave a whistle, And away they all flew like the down of a thistle: But I heard him exclaim, as he shouted out clear-- BILLIKENS WILL WIN, IT WILL BE BETTER NEXT YEAR To all that follow the Billiken Biz Merry Christmas to all , best wishes from The Wiz