Play defense for 5 seconds for the tie, or foul for the win?

[Aquinas]

Foul. If the shooter makes both. A 2 point basket ties,  a 3 wins. If shooter makes 1, a 2 wins. If he misses the second shot, must get rebound and get up the floor in 5 sec.

What were the odds of them scoring in 5 sec. We had Ez and Dalger out.

Then there is the specifics on the odds of winning in overtime. We were at home. On the other hand Ez and Dalger had fouled out and they had everyone, including  their bigs.

I think OT favored them. They gained on us the second half with Ez and Dalger. 

What do you think? What does rhe Wiz think?

 

[majerus mojo]

Pretty sure fouling there is insane or I am way behind on my analytics 

[The Wiz]

39 minutes ago, Aquinas said:

Foul. If the shooter makes both. A 2 point basket ties,  a 3 wins. If shooter makes 1, a 2 wins. If he misses the second shot, must get rebound and get up the floor in 5 sec.

What were the odds of them scoring in 5 sec. We had Ez and Dalger out.

Then there is the specifics on the odds of winning in overtime. We were at home. On the other hand Ez and Dalger had fouled out and they had everyone, including  their bigs.

I think OT favored them. They gained on us the second half with Ez and Dalger. 

What do you think? What does rhe Wiz think?

 

I think the foul was the right thing to do.  If we don't foul them they have a 54% chance to score in the final 7 sec(the time they received the ball)...either by FT or basket with no time left and we lose.  By stopping the clock with the foul we have a 56% chance to win.   There was a good chance Neuman might miss one of those 2 FTs as he was shooting 50%(2-4) from the charity stripe.

In the simulation, where we don't foul and they miss the shot at the buzzer, we go to OT.   In OT , the computer still shows an even game.  In the simulation with 1 min left in OT ,.....the game is tied  Hargrove drives to the basket through heavy traffic ....whistle foul ...count the basket.  FT is good...Bills by 3  ....LaT brings the ball up  and we steal the ball (1st TO for LaT).  We go into the weave and LaT fouls us . GJ sinks 2 ....we lead by 5 and with seconds left LaT scores an uncontested layup at the buzzer and the Bills win by 3 in OT....Chances of winning in OT for the Bills ....54%.

Some may say giving up 2 points and depending on a long shot to win is not the right thing to do.  It is definitely unconventional ...and a long shot to win....BUT the Bills had 18 long shots in the game and made 56% (higher than their 2P%).  You have to go with what's working and the Bills did . While this is a play you would never draw up ...the computer liked the play and the narrow odds favoring the Bills.

[cheeseman]

1 hour ago, The Wiz said:

I think the foul was the right thing to do.  If we don't foul them they have a 54% chance to score in the final 7 sec(the time they received the ball)...either by FT or basket with no time left and we lose.  By stopping the clock with the foul we have a 56% chance to win.   There was a good chance Neuman might miss one of those 2 FTs as he was shooting 50%(2-4) from the charity stripe.

In the simulation, where we don't foul and they miss the shot at the buzzer, we go to OT.   In OT , the computer still shows an even game.  In the simulation with 1 min left in OT ,.....the game is tied  Hargrove drives to the basket through heavy traffic ....whistle foul ...count the basket.  FT is good...Bills by 3  ....LaT brings the ball up  and we steal the ball (1st TO for LaT).  We go into the weave and LaT fouls us . GJ sinks 2 ....we lead by 5 and with seconds left LaT scores an uncontested layup at the buzzer and the Bills win by 3 in OT....Chances of winning in OT for the Bills ....54%.

Some may say giving up 2 points and depending on a long shot to win is not the right thing to do.  It is definitely unconventional ...and a long shot to win....BUT the Bills had 18 long shots in the game and made 56% (higher than their 2P%).  You have to go with what's working and the Bills did . While this is a play you would never draw up ...the computer liked the play and the narrow odds favoring the Bills.

I would have thought the better odds would have been to not foul and make them try to make a basket.  If they did not we are still tied.  I do agree OT would not have been in our favor.

[Aquinas]

I think the right thing may come down to who has the advantage in OT. We were down Dalger, Ez and I think coach said Thames was done. They had everyone. In this case I think OT advantage to them and that assumes we stop them on their last possession. So TJ at 35 to 40% on a 3 is probably the better bet and if they missed one of the FTs you only need a 2 to win and that's more like 50%. 

I think the quick foul was probably an accident, but was also the best move. 

[The Wiz]

9 minutes ago, Aquinas said:

I think the right thing may come down to who has the advantage in OT. We were down Dalger, Ez and I think coach said Thames was done. They had everyone. In this case I think OT advantage to them and that assumes we stop them on their last possession. So TJ at 35 to 40% on a 3 is probably the better bet and if they missed one of the FTs you only need a 2 to win and that's more like 50%. 

I think the quick foul was probably an accident, but was also the best move. 

There is general strategy and then there is this specific situation.  I think in this specific situation the computer thought it was OK to foul.  Had you asked it before the game or in general, I think it would have said not too foul.  But in this case, it has seen 39+ min of play and is making a different decision. I think the computer weighs heavily on the better shooting team (us)....and who will be the key players in the final 7 sec and/or OT.  We are the better shooting team.  In the final 5 sec LaT hasn't crossed  half court yet and Newman(25/0/50) is the wrong guy with the ball. He would cross half court looking for Batcho or Crawford at the 3 second mark...he might call a time out or not....either way it would be a pass and shoot in one motion to Bat or Craw at the buzzer...it would have to be a perfect pass and a difficult shot....likely outcome... OT.  By fouling you go from almost certain OT to 24% chance loss ...38% OT....38% win.

In OT , the computer looks at each team's "go to" guys....Batcho and Crawford ...and Jimerson and Hargrove....They all were the leading scorers and the shot takers in the game...for LaT  their pair looked like this ...52/40/67...for the Bills, GJ and TJ...62/60/80...advantage Bills...so probably a Bills win in OT.

I agree with you on the foul...I am sure it was unintended...all you had to do was watch GJs reaction and you knew he was upset about the play.  But the Bills won both in the simulation and in real life....it was meant to be.

[Aquinas]

8 hours ago, The Wiz said:

There is general strategy and then there is this specific situation.  I think in this specific situation the computer thought it was OK to foul.  Had you asked it before the game or in general, I think it would have said not too foul.  But in this case, it has seen 39+ min of play and is making a different decision. I think the computer weighs heavily on the better shooting team (us)....and who will be the key players in the final 7 sec and/or OT.  We are the better shooting team.  In the final 5 sec LaT hasn't crossed  half court yet and Newman(25/0/50) is the wrong guy with the ball. He would cross half court looking for Batcho or Crawford at the 3 second mark...he might call a time out or not....either way it would be a pass and shoot in one motion to Bat or Craw at the buzzer...it would have to be a perfect pass and a difficult shot....likely outcome... OT.  By fouling you go from almost certain OT to 24% chance loss ...38% OT....38% win.

In OT , the computer looks at each team's "go to" guys....Batcho and Crawford ...and Jimerson and Hargrove....They all were the leading scorers and the shot takers in the game...for LaT  their pair looked like this ...52/40/67...for the Bills, GJ and TJ...62/60/80...advantage Bills...so probably a Bills win in OT.

I agree with you on the foul...I am sure it was unintended...all you had to do was watch GJs reaction and you knew he was upset about the play.  But the Bills won both in the simulation and in real life....it was meant to be.

Thanks for your reply, I greatly appreciate it. It shows that fouling right away is not always the right thing to do. Which is different than what I thought going into the game. I greatly appreciate your contributions to the board about games and topics like this.