ESPN Article-- Upset odds for Sunday's games

[bills10]

http://insider.espn.go.com/ncb/blog?name=giant_killers&id=7701376&_slug_=2012-ncaa-tournament-giant-killers-upset-odds-sunday-games&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fncb%2fblog%3fname%3dgiant_killers%26id%3d7701376%26_slug_%3d2012-ncaa-tournament-giant-killers-upset-odds-sunday-games

I am not an insider, but would love it if someone who was could post what they are forecasting to be our odds. Look forward to anyhelp.

[JMM28]

The No. 9 Saint Louis Billikens (31.7) vs. the No. 1 Michigan State Spartans (28.6)

Upset chance: 22.9 percent

Saint Louis took the battle royale of tempo-free stats Friday night. Memphis and the Billikens have been highly ranked on kenpom.com all season, but it was the methodical Billikens who advanced. Now they'll face Michigan State, and they're armed and dangerous.

The Magical Majeri are absolute stalwarts in the turnover battle, giving it up just 18.1 percent of the time (50th in the country), while forcing mistakes on 23.1 percent of possessions (36th). That coincides with the Spartans' greatest weaknesses, as they're at 19.7 percent (140th) and 19.7 (194th), respectively. (Yes, Michigan State actually has the same turnover percentage on offense and defense.)

Saint Louis also knocks down 36.9 percent of its 3-pointers and holds teams to a 28.6 offensive rebounding rate, meaning there's a great showdown looming, because Michigan State excels in both areas (opponents shoot just 29.7 percent from downtown and Sparty grabs offensive boards 37.2 percent of the time). Those factors will likely determine the outcome of the game. But given Saint Louis' edge in the turnover battle and its overall efficient D (87.9 points per 100 possessions, 10th in the country), the Billikens should be in this one to the final buzzer.

[SLUDrew]

They are giving us by far the best chance of the major underdogs. By comparison, they give Creighton roughly a 3% chance of upsetting Carolina.

The No. 9 Saint Louis Billikens (31.7) vs. the No. 1 Michigan State Spartans (28.6)

Upset chance: 22.9 percent

Saint Louis took the battle royale of tempo-free stats Friday night. Memphis and the Billikens have been highly ranked on kenpom.com all season, but it was the methodical Billikens who advanced. Now they'll face Michigan State, and they're armed and dangerous.

The Magical Majeri are absolute stalwarts in the turnover battle, giving it up just 18.1 percent of the time (50th in the country), while forcing mistakes on 23.1 percent of possessions (36th). That coincides with the Spartans' greatest weaknesses, as they're at 19.7 percent (140th) and 19.7 (194th), respectively. (Yes, Michigan State actually has the same turnover percentage on offense and defense.)

Saint Louis also knocks down 36.9 percent of its 3-pointers and holds teams to a 28.6 offensive rebounding rate, meaning there's a great showdown looming, because Michigan State excels in both areas (opponents shoot just 29.7 percent from downtown and Sparty grabs offensive boards 37.2 percent of the time). Those factors will likely determine the outcome of the game. But given Saint Louis' edge in the turnover battle and its overall efficient D (87.9 points per 100 possessions, 10th in the country), the Billikens should be in this one to the final buzzer.

[Billsrmajic]

Saint Louis also knocks down 36.9 percent of its 3-pointers and holds teams to a 28.6 offensive rebounding rate, meaning there's a great showdown looming, because Michigan State excels in both areas (opponents shoot just 29.7 percent from downtown and Sparty grabs offensive boards 37.2 percent of the time). Those factors will likely determine the outcome of the game. But given Saint Louis' edge in the turnover battle and its overall efficient D (87.9 points per 100 possessions, 10th in the country), the Billikens should be in this one to the final buzzer.

I'd say us winning one our of four or one out of five times is about right. I definitely agree with the above paragraph. We need to hit some 3's and limit offensive rebounds to win.

[brianstl]

I like the term the Magical Majeri.

[jjray]

I like the term the Magical Majeri.

Yeah, very cool with the latin plural form.

[West Pine Jim]

Oh yeah, the Magical Majeri, a name has been coined !