Postcard Posted February 6, 2009 Share Posted February 6, 2009 From his chat today: mike. rhode island: A-10 seems to be getting 2 bids any chance you see Rhode Island sneaking in if they win out and win a game or 2 in the A-14 conference? Joe Lunardi: (3:24 PM ET ) Not gonna' happen, Mike. Rhode Island maybe could have been in the at-large mix had they won last month's game against Xavier. No one other than the two top teams have much of an at-large profile from the A-10. The guy from CBSSPORTSLINE has: ATLANTIC 10 (2) Projected champ: Xavier At-large: Dayton On the fence: Rhode Island, Saint Joseph's, Temple Anyone see the league getting more than two at this point? Rhode Island has about 4 close losses but no real signature wins. I can't see anyone other than X and Dayton going at this point barring a team making a run in the conference tourney. Three would be nice but we'll take two in an off year. MVC is only a one bid league no matter who wins their tourney. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moytoy12 Posted February 6, 2009 Share Posted February 6, 2009 From his chat today: The guy from CBSSPORTSLINE has: Anyone see the league getting more than two at this point? Rhode Island has about 4 close losses but no real signature wins. I can't see anyone other than X and Dayton going at this point barring a team making a run in the conference tourney. Three would be nice but we'll take two in an off year. MVC is only a one bid league no matter who wins their tourney. It doesn't seem likely with the Big East getting so many bids, the usual tourney upsets (maybe that's how the A-10 gets 3?) and the BCS conferences getting unnecessary love. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARbilliken Posted February 6, 2009 Share Posted February 6, 2009 I agree with everyone---with the Big East this year and the usual ACC and all of the others--looks like the A-10 should take their two and deal with it. This of course barring any freak upset in the A-10 tourney, which I do not see at this current time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Postcard Posted February 6, 2009 Author Share Posted February 6, 2009 It doesn't seem likely with the Big East getting so many bids, the usual tourney upsets (maybe that's how the A-10 gets 3?) and the BCS conferences getting unnecessary love. I know what you're saying. For what it's worth, Lunardi said he thought right now the Big East would get 8 and not the record 9 or 10 that people thought they might get. Also, he said that the conference(big east) is slipping right now so who knows, maybe they get less than that. X is a lock. Dayton is building their resume. If they beat X one of their two meetings they'll be tough to keep out. It's possible the league could get three. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted February 6, 2009 Share Posted February 6, 2009 i always think you have to somewhat work backwards to come up with the chances of a conference bubble team. as usual you only have 13 worthy conferences (conferences that have legitimate top 65 teams). and you got 18 conferences that will get spots only because their conference gets an automatic bid for their conference tourney champion (for you mvc fans out there, the mvc this year is one of those right now) and then if you add the other teams in they 13 good conferences (i have long believed the safe spot is about 40 on the rpi. sure there is an occasional missouri state, but 40 is a pretty good dividing line historically) you will find your bubble teams. this year the bcs conferences are really going to hog the spots. ACC will likely get at least 6 spots. big 10 6, big east 8, big 12 6, Pac 10 3 for sure. the sec isnt showing as well right now, but i will bet they end up with more than two they currently have in the top 40. so the only other conferences that i think has a lock as of today on two spots would be the A-10 and the mountain west. right now assuming the following conferences have their premier teams win their tourney, they would only get that spot as well even though their premium team is going regardless at this point: cusa (memphis) horizon (butler) Metro atlantic (sienna) Western Athletic (Utah State) and West Coast (Gonzaga) that only leaves 7 more spots for upsets and bubbles. i am guessing that temple will be close to that line, but one would think there would be at least a few upset tourney winners. so they need to really try to improve their lie. i would bet if it ended today with no conference tourney upsets they would still be out. i.e. A-10 isnt going to get 3 bids unless someone other than dayton or xavier wins the conference tourney. btw, most of the bubble teams right now are BCS as well (8 out of the 12 past the 40 rpi mark). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted February 6, 2009 Share Posted February 6, 2009 I agree with everyone---with the Big East this year and the usual ACC and all of the others--looks like the A-10 should take their two and deal with it. This of course barring any freak upset in the A-10 tourney, which I do not see at this current time. I agree with everyone that says the A-10 will get 2 at-large bids (as long as Dayton's luck in the close games holds out). Where I disagree is the thought it would take a "freak upset" to get a third. Its hard for even teams like Xavier to win 3 in a row on a neutral court, especially when they don't have the same motivation somebody playing for their tourney life has. A look at recent A-10 Tourney history: 2008: X is the only lock. They lose in the first round. 3 get in. 2007: X is the only lock. They lose in the first/second round. GW gets automatic. 2006: GW is the only lock. They lose in the first/second round. X gets automatic. 2005: No locks. Automatic Only. 2004: St. Joes enters tourney undefeated and loses in first round. 4 get in. If there is one thing the A-10 is good at, its making sure the at-large locks don't win the conference tourney. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARbilliken Posted February 6, 2009 Share Posted February 6, 2009 I agree with everyone that says the A-10 will get 2 at-large bids (as long as Dayton's luck in the close games holds out). Where I disagree is the thought it would take a "freak upset" to get a third. Its hard for even teams like Xavier to win 3 in a row on a neutral court, especially when they don't have the same motivation somebody playing for their tourney life has. A look at recent A-10 Tourney history: 2008: X is the only lock. They lose in the first round. 3 get in. 2007: X is the only lock. They lose in the first/second round. GW gets automatic. 2006: GW is the only lock. They lose in the first/second round. X gets automatic. 2005: No locks. Automatic Only. 2004: St. Joes enters tourney undefeated and loses in first round. 4 get in. If there is one thing the A-10 is good at, its making sure the at-large locks don't win the conference tourney. Good point---thanks for the stats...I still predict a win by X or YouDee, but I would be very happy to see a third get in--maybe a rolling billiken squad...I don't think it would happen, but i can wish--think, our last 4 games at least are winnable, and with a young team, that could mean a lot going into a must win tourney. Maybe, just maybe it could happen...But, then again, maybe pigs will fly--- Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CO-billiken Posted February 6, 2009 Share Posted February 6, 2009 We might as well be that freak upset!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted February 6, 2009 Share Posted February 6, 2009 I agree with everyone that says the A-10 will get 2 at-large bids (as long as Dayton's luck in the close games holds out). Where I disagree is the thought it would take a "freak upset" to get a third. Its hard for even teams like Xavier to win 3 in a row on a neutral court, especially when they don't have the same motivation somebody playing for their tourney life has. If there is one thing the A-10 is good at, its making sure the at-large locks don't win the conference tourney. If either Xavier or Dayton wins the conference tournament, the conference is likely to get one at-large bid: the other of the two. Xavier and Dayton will get at-large bids if one of the other 10 teams wins the tournament. Let's get the 618 backcourt rolling to claim the automatic bid for the Billikens. It's their last hurrah; just do it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box and Won Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 right now assuming the following conferences have their premier teams win their tourney, they would only get that spot as well even though their premium team is going regardless at this point: cusa (memphis) horizon (butler) Metro atlantic (sienna) Western Athletic (Utah State) and West Coast (Gonzaga) that only leaves 7 more spots for upsets and bubbles. i am guessing that temple will be close to that line, but one would think there would be at least a few upset tourney winners. so they need to really try to improve their lie. i would bet if it ended today with no conference tourney upsets they would still be out. i.e. A-10 isnt going to get 3 bids unless someone other than dayton or xavier wins the conference tourney. btw, most of the bubble teams right now are BCS as well (8 out of the 12 past the 40 rpi mark). No St. Mary's from the WCC? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 No St. Mary's from the WCC? They are going to have a tough time claiming an at-large with their Aussie going down. Take a look at their schedule and tell me which win will impress the committee. http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_415_Men.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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