Bills By 40

One difference is that every time Rashad shot the ball it was a HIGHLY questionable shot selection, and most never seemed to have a chance of going in. I'd say both of those are untrue of Sincere. I hope he proves me right real soon...like tomorrow soon.

I used https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other but I like KenPom's result better

"Right after" might be misleading, they played one top-100 net ranked team in their next 5 games and it was at home. One of the other four was against a non-D1 team, one against a top-200 net team at home, and another against a top-300 net team at home. Maybe it was the game against us that turned them into the team they became? The two teams certainly played much different schedules after that game.

I don't think it's fair to expect of any these by November. Mid-december, pre-conference play? Sure. Perkins is showing improvement, at least physically, game over game which is all we can ask for - we never expected him to be 100% before what, January? We (and he) have (has) time. We haven't cut down as much as we'd like to on turnovers but it is better. Yuri is averaging about 1 less turnover per game already, despite playing the toughest schedule he's ever seen at SLU. The team itself is down from 12.57 TO/G through 7 games last year to 11.28 TO/G through 7 games...and our schedule is FAR MORE DIFFICULT. How much more difficult? SOS today - 21st. SOS on 11/29/21 - 165. Thinking Parker would be instantly adjusted to the D1 game was unfair, though I admit I might've been guilty myself I think we can agree that was a blue kool-aid side effect. Not to mention we've given him the hardest stretch of schedule he may ever see in his time at SLU. I agree I'd have liked more out of him in our lesser games but again, let's circle back to him in a month. Perkins only averaged 6 points per game through his first 7 and again, he didn't have to do that with the 21st ranked schedule in the nation. The 5 spot has time. It's still not out of the question to see Cisse develop into a 5-6MPG player especially against lesser competition, Okoro isn't the Okoro we know he can be yet, and Forester still has time to acclimate to his new team. Our 5 spot today is still better than it was - at least as good - at this point last year. Defense is better than it was IMO. If for no reason other than what we did with Memphis and at Auburn. Before the game? We should not have expected to beat Auburn. During the first half? We should've expected to hang with Auburn. During the second half? We were hanging with Auburn, good. Late in the second half, yeah, we should've been able to hang on to that lead, but I don't think it's fair to say covering the spread and losing by less than two possessions against a top-13 team on their home court is the failure some are acting it is. I don't think Majerus could've even beaten Maryland that day. Maybe limit them to winning by less than 30, but where Majerus excelled in defense he lacked in offense. We still wouldn't have been more efficient or productive on that side of the court as them. I think Maryland could've beaten anybody in the nation that day. I sound like a broken record, but, let's circle back in a month or so. It's too early to be thinking we've hit or missed expectations, especially with the schedule we've played. Not fair. Rashad already had three years of proven success at the D1 level. Give Sincere time.

Favored means statistically likely. It is not statistically likely that we do win all 17, just that one by one we have better odds than the opponent. And yes that Dayton game is the first where we're the underdog, but that could very well change by the time we get there. 1) Correct. I appreciate this take. 2) I have the same issue with my buddies, most of whom I've been close to since 2016 - and the majority aren't even Mizzou fans. They all kind of want to be SLU fans, come to games with me, etc, but you're right it's hard to fully reel them in until we reach the next level. "Reaching the next level" is more of an optics thing, I truly think we're there - or at least banging our head on the glass ceiling. My rebuttal is that I've told them every year how much better we'll be than the year before - which is true. Every year since Ford came to SLU we've been better than the year before, especially from year 1 to year 2 and year 2 to year 3. Year 4 was poised to be the best yet before, ya know, Covid. Year 5 reassured that year 4 was going to be great before, ya know, Covid, until what happened? Covid screwed us even harder. Year 6 was a major setback in terms of roster, and then we doubled down on that setback when we lost JP. We all know whether we'll admit it or not that we majorly outperformed the readjusted expectations set when we lost JP so I still consider that a major success. This year looked like - and still does - it could be the best year of Ford's tenure, both on paper and in reality. 3) I've heard it too, plenty have. They fall higher in some rankings because of their meaningless record and inflated offensive numbers. If we played nobody but the Evansville's and Paul Quinn's of the world we'd have an undefeated record and multiple 100 point games too. The moral of the story is they're only 5 spots ahead of us in KenPom despite being 7-0, but looking deeper they haven't defeated a single team in the top-150, only won by two possessions versus the best two teams they have played (156th and 192nd, both at home), and have a strength of schedule of 297 !!! That's embarrassing. They have their first real test tonight @ 85th ranked Wichita State and I hope every one of us MBM's is tuned in and rooting for their failure. I fully believe they'll have 4 losses, at least 1-2 more than us, by the turn of the calendar year. 4) We've established ourselves as a nationally relevant mid-major program and have been in the tournament or at least in the conversation each of the last four years. Had Covid not happened, objectively and unbiasedly speaking, we would have had at least 1 more and likely 2 more tournament appearances. Because we can't technically credit Ford for tournament appearances in those two years, the least we can do is not fault him for the lack thereof, and in that scope we are left with what? 1 tournament appearance in 4 years, two of which were major rebuilding years with significant improvement in both, and the third of which we were a bubble team. The glass ceiling is growing tired of us banging our heads on it...patience. I'm with you, it's tough, but look at the trending direction. Future is very bright. 5) You shouldn't tamper expectations, I know I'm not and I hope nobody's asking you to. I still expect us to be a tournament team and I still expect us to be much better in 3-5 years than we were 3-5 years ago. That's all we can ask for. Rant over

Perspective courtesy of a bored MBM stuck in the office:

I predict he breaks that record at home vs. La Salle on 01/21.

You're right about this one. There's a middle ground, a sweet spot, and sometimes that's hard to find. Especially if shots just aren't falling.

And on today's episode of "Old Guy making an @$$ of himself"

I'm not going to be upset either way. Short-term advantages tip my allegiances in Murray's favor but long-term I think UMass is the play.

Not sure which way you're taking this but I'd think you mean cheer for Murray? We beat Murray in the OOC so their performance improves that win on the resume, but if UMass beats Murray it's an OOC win for them which improves their resume and in turn strengthens the conference and our matchup against them. -- that matchup against UMass is on the road, where if they climb to 135 in NET it will be a Q2 win and not a Q3. The Murray game at home has much less of a chance of being a Q2 win because they'd have to climb all the way to top 75 in NET to break out of Q3 territory. --- in summary I'm cheering for UMass.

I also have a natural knee hyperextension, maybe you and I aren't so different after all old man.

You are correct @3star_recruit. There's no doubt in my mind that this year's team is better than any of H's, but also that last year's team was lesser than probably both of H's teams and especially than his '94-'95 team. @billiken_royI get the confusion but here to clarify, see above.

I'm leaning that way because it'll mean more in the long run. On one hand UMass got the big Colorado win out of the tournament, but on the other Murray doesn't have as many chances at getting good wins. I'm looking at this strictly as "Which team's win would be more beneficial to SLU?" and I can't confidently answer that. Maybe someone smarter than me can?

Exactly. "B-b-b-b-b-but, he's otherwise a nice guy! I swear!" I don't care if he's Mother Theresa, libel isn't cool.

Side note - I can't decide who I'm rooting for more this afternoon, Murray or UMASS.

That's what we're doing.

That Murray State win is starting to mean a lot more now.

LOL fair, I concede that one - my bad. But the only thing that changes in this argument are the advanced metrics that favor 3t shooting. One could argue that Yuri getting the free throw line more often - aka drawing fouls on opponents - is valuable like H's 3PT shooting, maybe even more valuable as it can take players out of the game. Let's look at what's left: Yuri with an ~equivalent~ PPG, Yuri with a BETTER overall FG% (even including H's major advantage in 3Pt shooting), Yuri with a huge advantage in passing (despite H being surrounded by better players to pass to), Yuri with a major lead in rebounding (despite H being at least 3" taller than Yuri), and Yuri having much better individual performances. Here, I highlighted all of the facts for you. There was just that one miscalculation, I'll own that one.

If I weren't already making the 3 hour flight to Cancun I'd probably be there. Go Bills, huck the Foosiers

L O L

And for good measure @brianstl here I attached two screenshots of me using the calculator and entering those official statistics to come to the true shooting percentages that I’m quoting. First is H and second is Yuri.

How did you come to those conclusions on true shooting percentage? I used a reputable true shooting % calculator, drew the exact statistics from SLU and ESPN record books, and posted all of the above with sources in my post. The assist to turnover ratio could be compared to usage rate if that is documented back to '94-'95. Didn't say steals were the only way we judge defense because it isn't, but what other objective quantifiable way is there to do so? (*That I have time to do at work*) SOS is irrelevant to this conversation because 1) there's no denying that H's teams were far better than Yuri's last year and 2) there's a direct correlation between a player's ability to perform against stronger competition and the support he has from the team around him. If you disagree with this then there's no sense in debating with you. More importantly, using https://www.breakthroughbasketball.com/stats/efg_calc.html, I found much different results for your effective field goal % calculations. It tells me that in '94-'95 H's eFG% was 53.16% and Yuri's last year was 46.51%. This metric places a major emphasis on 3PT shooting but I would've never argued with you if the argument was H was a better 3PT shooter. The reason True Shooting Percentage was invented is because eFG% completely disregards FT shooting and places a huge emphasis on 3's, not the most accurate measurement of a player. I ask that you read this article highlighting the differences between the two: https://squared2020.com/2017/10/10/relationship-between-ts-and-efg/. I went and chose a different true shooting % calculator to recheck my numbers and came out with the exact same results - H in '94-'95 with a true shooting % of 39.2% and Yuri in '21-'22 with a true shooting % of 46.7%. I used the attached stat sheet from the official SLU website under the Year-By-Year Statistics page and the ESPN website for Yuri's - two indisputable sources. Other than lying how are you so sure I'm wrong?

I thought "Hell I don't know much about H, let's fact check this. Maybe he's right." You aren't. H Waldman '94-'95: 11.3PPG .449/.427/.788 4.8APG 2.4RPG 2.4SPG Yuri Collins '21-'22: 11.1PPG .450/.362/.815 7.9APG 4.1RPG 1.9SPG Let's have more fun with that, and compare season highs: H - 22 points, 10 assists, 5 rebounds Yuri - 35 points, 19 assists (and had 10 or more 8 times), 12 rebounds (and had 5 or more 15 times) Not only did Yuri have a nearly identical scoring average (1 fewer point per 5 games played), he did it with 3.1 more assists per game, 1.7 more rebounds per game, only .5 fewer steals per game, and a true shooting percentage of 46.73% to H's 39.19% - and you can fact check that with this website (If you care to do the work, the values are as follows: H - 338 points, 396 FGA, 80 FTA ; Yuri - 379 points, 358 FGA, 108 FTA). AND, I compared H's senior season to Yuri's junior season. He was a full year more developed and matured, (arguably) stacking the odds in his favor. Strength of schedule is more difficult to find historical data for but based on how wrong all of your other claims are we can guess that might be too. Sources: https://saintlouisu_ftp.sidearmsports.com/custompages/MBB/stats/199495Stats.pdf (H's stats) https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/stats/_/id/4432957/yuri-collins (Yuri's stats)