The Wiz

+1

Very nice win... and a spread of 14 is great. It is the maximum number that gives us the biggest boost. After 14 it is the law of diminishing returns. Interestingly, New Mexico stays at A-.....we are a "good" loss for them. We are 4 points better than the Lobos. The psychological factors that I mentioned in an earlier post (letdown from beating a top 10 team and being reranked, followed by playing an unranked OOC team during a long road trip) were good for an additional 10 points. And while you can't figure it into the calculations (contrary to what some may think) it is not a surprise for us to win big. As I pointed out to the Lobo, they will use this loss as an excuse if they do poorly in their conference (I currently have them 5th) Now another warm up game before conference play and we should be in good shape going into the season. I will do a conference preview after the Savannah game. Go Bills

So You go through your whole rant about what I do and then right before the UNM game after all the lines are out ... you post the Vegas line of Bills by 4. I thought at the time..... you look so silly. I wasn't going to respond to your post because it would make you look even worse. ....and then you continue to repeat yourself with additional drivel. Yes, you win......but only in your own mind. In reality, you lose everytime you post because you just don't get it and it shows.

Hmmm....... Well I have the Lobos rated 46. I kept trying to work the numbers to push you higher but it just wouldn't work..... Every time I tried to push them higher it kept rejecting,,,,It said see S Dak St.. I was very disappointed that you came in at 46. I was hoping for top 20 , It is worth so much more to us when we beat a top team. Much to my relief (and yours) the writers came through with a top 20 ranking. Thank god those writers don't pay attention to numbers much. So it all works out ...you get your good ranking and we get to beat an over ranked team. Of course, I am sure you are convinced I am wrong in that you have this great team ...how could I favor the unranked Bills over the mighty Lobos....Hmmm ... I must be a homer. ....By the way KenPom, Sagarin, and Vegas are in our corner too. I guess we are all out to get you. BTW, I took another look at the numbers and to be frank you have alot more to worry about than the Billikens. I found 4 teams rated ahead of you.....IN YOUR OWN CONFERENCE Wyo, SDSt,UNLV, and Col St. A 5th place finish would not be good for dancing. Of course you could always say that a Billiken loss caused this letdown against your own conference. Look at the bright side of things. I still have you ahead of Air Force. Here is wishing you a great season after tonight's game. Afterall you have to keep your numbers up if our win is going to mean anything.

Hmm... You know nothing of me...what or how I do things...You say I post before Vegas...Hmm...Maybe they copy me ...maybe I work for the Sports Book.. You know for someone who knows so much , you know very little. I saw the power rankings you follow. They have KU on top ...I can think of a half a dozen other teams I would put number 1. But this isn't about my system vs the one you follow. I post on here for recreational purposes. People can use the info any way they would like or they can ignore it. This info is for the fan ...mainly to evaluate the strength of our opponents. If I didn't do this I would have no idea if N Tex is better than UT-M. or if the UW loss was a bad one that would hurt us down the line....thus the conversion of the numbers to a report card system....It is easy to see a B- is better than a C ,,,But losing to a C is not the end of the world. As a long time season ticket holder, I started to do handicapping while the Bills were still at the Checkerdome. I use to bring my papers to the game (no mobile devices) and fans would gather not only to see what my line on the Bills was but on what conference opponents were doing. There was much less info back then. Now anyone (even you) can go to the computer and look up other peoples stuff. In some ways it is more difficult in that you have to filter out a lot of meaningless info,. But all this stuff I just wrote means nothing to you. You want me to predict Bills by 20 over New Mex and if it happens you will be a believer. I really don't care whether you are a believer. My system doesn't try to pick out events that are 3 standard deviations away ,,,,It is trying to pick out the most likely outcome. An insurance company knows there will be some people who live to 100 but it doesn;t base its model on that ....it bases it on the average life span ...the most likely outcome. You want me to find the guy who will live to 100. Not going to happen. I do appreciate your generosity in trying to protect innocent and naive Bills fans. I don't know what they did before they knew you,... Probably were taken advantage of by cunning X fans. I know none of this will change your mind, Perhaps the spreads and other info is not for you. If it bothers you ....don't read it. Wiz by 73 over MB

+1

Lol...SIU-E by 15 over Grambling

So according to the power ratings you are looking at....if KU plays Duke on a neutral floor KU wins by 3...hmmm I am showing Duke by 3...see if you can fix that.. Oh you can't ...nevermind....just one example of many differences. DaLove is correct ...I use a true point spread...when it differs from Vegas you have a chance to make some money...MB if you are looking for me to pick Grambling as a Final Four team...not going to happen....my system picks the most likely outcomes...sometimes it will match or be close to Vegas... Sometimes not...Many times there is no line such as the Bills vs UT-M Btw..is anyone else having trouble posting...I have had to switch to my phone to post.

Duke wins ...90-77

I had Duke by 20 on this one so SC won't be hurt by the loss and might benefit a little.

I think overall we would do pretty well....more wins then losses. Now if I get to pick and choose a little rather than do every game...we would do real well....Some on the board have told me they are using my numbers and making some money.

I may have to put a warning label on these forecasts. ..... Beware of side effects.... Probability may cause dizziness, stats may make you feel uncomfortable and numbers may cause nausea. If you are suffering any of these symptoms you need to step away from Billikens.com. If these symptoms return upon future use you must not click on posts that say The Wiz. If symptoms persist please stare at a picture of "Easy Ed" going to the hoop for at least 5 minutes.

Well, yes ...these are the marks of a B+ team. Even with bad numbers the Bills win by 27. The mark of a good team is to beat the bad teams when you have an off night. I think the Bills play to the level of their competition. They will step it up a notch against NM.

This should be a Bills win if we play up to par. New Mex should suffer a psyche letdown coming into the Fetz. A big win for them beating #8 Cinn....they were up for that game after being humilated by SDakSt. ...a chance to regain their swag by beating a ranked team. And they did. A hard fought close game drains you as well as a long road trip (time and distance) Then on Monday they will come to the Fetz right after being put back in the polls.... to play the unranked Bills....a letdown for them. I do not have them as a top 25 team nor did I have them before SDakSt. But it doesn't matter where I have them ranked....the fact is they will be ranked which is a great thing for the Bills. Make no mistake about it UNM is a great team...I currently have them as A-. The Bills are B+ now. A win over the Lobos would move us up to A-. I will be watching the opp 3pt shooting % again as a key factor. With a revved up nice size crowd ...if the Bills bring their A game (or at least their A- game) this should fall into the Bills win column.

Those that take issue are usually those that don't understand numbers, statistics or probability.. The cumulative probability of picking those 6 games correct (just picking the winners ..forget about the spreads) was 64%...very high but far from a sure thing....it was high enough though to predict a 6 game win streak. And yes, I still do work (with numbers) and supplement my income with Vegas.

With the win over Cinn , New Mex moved up to A-

So I guess based on my 3rd paragraph....where I say those who thought these were easy to predict also thought these were not meaningful wins for the Bills. I trust you fall into the camp that thought the last 6 wins were meaningless. Possibly you missed the South Dakota St (D+) win the other night over our next opponent New Mex.(A-) ...just another cupcake for New Mex.

A nice win tonight to complete the set. I liked the opp 3 pt shooting % at 31%...keep it under 35% . The overall defense was excellent. . This set of 6 was unusual for me ...predicting 6 wins in a row at one time. I like to to take the games one at a time but the numbers just came together. At the time we were 3-3 and some felt the season was slipping away.... At 9-3 not so much. We were B+ at the start and we are still B+ now. We weren't terrible before and we aren't elite now. We are just a very good team that can get better from here (maybe reach elite if we can gel) A win over New Mex would probably push us to A-. I haven't crunched the numbers yet for the spread but it looks like the Bills will be favored Monday. Yes, some will argue the set of 6 were cupcakes and not only easy to predict but also not very meaningful for the Bills. I would take issue with that. There were some cupcakes but they weren't all that way . Here is what the past 6 look like now........ Valpo...B N Tex...D+ UT-M....F EIU.......F Loy-M...C- SIU-E....D- Valpo a nice win and Loy not a cupcake. These 6 games were resume and confidence builders ...and remember we did the first 5 without KM ...JJ &MM played some long minutes in those games....nothing to apologize for. Also of interest are some of are other past opponents...SC has moved up to a B+ team...and SIU-C has moved up to a C+ (they were an F when we played them) When are opponents improve it is a positive for the Bills. Unfortunately, UW has slipped to C+. They are the weakest team we have lost to at this time. If C+ is your worst loss that's not too bad as long as you don't keep doing it. It beats losing to SDak St. Also the TAMU win is still a decent win with the Aggies checking in at B-. A win over NM might continue the streak for awhile.

On one hand SIU-E is the best of the OVC teams we face. But on the other hand they are still rated at D-. This will complete the 6 game cupcake run..... a good tuneup game for UNM.

And the December run continues....one more to go which should not be a problem. What a great win today on both ends of the floor...again my fav stat was opp 3 pt %...14%

ISU is a B- team...a great win for them in OT. No shame to Ole Miss who had a chance to win it in the final second. This game would not qualify as an upset. I usually like a 2 letter ratings jump.

A great win for the Bills on both ends of the floor. My fav stat is opp 3 pt %. I like to see below 30%...we held them to 14%...RM would have been proud....nice job Bills

Even though I thought UNM was overated and shouldn't have been ranked they still are a very good team that carries an A- rating. Losing to S Dak St (D+) of the weak Summit league falls into the class of upset. Not to mention the Jack Rabbits beat UNM at the Pit one of the toughest venues. So this should answer the question....are they beatable? Yes they are ...but we will still have to bring our A game. If we play them like we played LMU... we win.