The Wiz

Hmm.....maybe we could also replace the Saintsations with professional dancers and while we are at it replace the team with some NBA players

Local media has no choice...If the national media is talking about us the locals will look silly if they ignore the Bills....not to mention they will lose viewers/readers to the national media if they don't jump on the bandwagon.

VCU ( A ) by 4 over GW ( A- )

I think the essence of most of this discussion is to figure out how high the Bills could climb in the polls. I am going to try something very "iffy"...to project (not compare) my results onto a subjective voting pattern (AP poll) To just project out the next 6-8 games (what most teams have left for the rest of the season) over 25 teams on my own system would be tough but then to try and figure out where the Bills would be by plopping it down on the fickle and sometimes bias voters of the AP seems impossible. But what the heck.......... This assumes the Bills win out...by 10 or more...each of the remaining 7 games...and that the teams in front of us... do what they are supposed to do with a couple of upsets along the way (Duke over Syr would not be an upset). We could move up to 6th. If a team like Ariz or Duke would go into a tailspin we could move higher. The point of this exercise is not to quote me and say... The Wiz thinks we will finish 6th...but to point out ...even using an imperfect and subjective system ...the difficulty of moving up from this point forward. If we could reach 10th and stay there, I would be fine with that...a little extra publicity....ESPN, when they run their bottomline standings, always show the top 10.. Bottomline....we need to win the next game....that should be our mantra for the rest of the season.

KU @WVU....KU wins Tex @ KU......KU wins OK @ KU.......KU wins KU @ OkSt.....even Big 12 tourney...KU wins I don't see 5 losses...even if KU loses a game or 2 ...it would be difficult for SLU to jump them.

I do not use a luck factor. And 1 or 2 pt wins are diminished because...well because they are 1 or 2 pt wins. The only time a 1 or 2 pt win is significant is when it was supposed to be a 14 pt win. Margin of victory is important....maybe even more so with weaker teams because you are supposed to dominate them.

The points in my system are weighted....starting at about 10 they start to fade...by 15 or more there is little effect.If you are favored by 2 and win by 5 ...it is more significant than if you are favored by 8 and win by 11. And it is this law of diminishing returns that kills us when we play cupcakes. If we are favored to win by 15...it is a no win situation ...numbers wise. If we win by 20 or 25 ...it means nothing...if we win by less than 15 we damage our numbers. I hate it when we play cupcakes.

I dealt with this issue on post #46 on the 1st 25 list I put out. In any case, you will have an answer on Wed when Pitt plays Syr. A close game validates my numbers ...an easy Syr win and the AP is on target.

Well if I let my personal feelings in ... I would just make the Bills #1.... But the whole idea is to have an objective system...and using a modeling system is probably the best idea. It is tempting to adjust the system .."to fix it" when it doesn't look right but then you start to build in a bias. Remember, it was this same flawed system in late 2011 moved the Bills to an A team...this following on the heels of an 11-19 season. By Jan 2012....I had us in the teens much to the shock of the board. Many at that time "knew" my system was flawed or that I was drinking the blue kool-aid. I had even used the dreaded E word (elite) when the Bills had not yet received a vote in the AP. The system measures not only what the Bills do, but everyone the Bills have played. So when St. J , a team we crushed, beats an A team like VCU we get a nice boost. Wisc a team that the AP had given up on was still 14 on my list... Good enough to beat MSU. This Badger win will show up in the Bills #'s tomorrow. (btw I had MSU at 7 ...AP at 9--so when I was close to AP it turned into a loss..lol) The model is pretty good at spotting trends, finding up and coming teams, hidden weaknesses,and most of all comparing teams who have not faced one another. Is it perfect, ...no....but it is right many more times than it is wrong. At the beginning of the season, I used it to forecast this year's record In the preseason thread on the board here ...On my post, i just wrote 32-5 though I didn't break it down. The actually breakdown was 28-3 reg season...2-1 A-10 tourney...2-1 NCAA....I think at the begining of the season most would not have had a problem with that forecast....yet at 24th in mid Feb the system looks flawed. Bottomline.....Use it as an alternative tool ( a different point of view) to evaluate the Bills and other teams. One last thing ....parity....In ranking teams , we truly split hairs . There is no difference between team 23 and team 24. There is a difference between the first dozen and the second dozen...how about between 12 & 13 ...again no difference. The downside of ranking is to magnify minute differences and overlook the parity that exists in college basketball especially in the top 50 or so teams. In the end, it takes a computer model to analyze those minute differences to rank teams or produce a spread. Lest we not forget that to be 24th...we are better than 327 other teams.

BE is a tough conf....from top to bottom....St. John's is an A- rated team.

The Nova game was one of the most impressive wins by any team this season.....A 28 pt blowout of an A+ team at Nova's place. While it certainly helped them, they are a good team besides that win dominating many good teams recently with a 14-1 run. The Big East is no slouch of a league and they are eating them up. Bottom line.... they are for real and have earned their A+. In addition they have the #1 player in the country plus they are the #1 shooting 3 pt team in the nation. I would love to see the Bills play them. What a game that would be.

They are fading ...they just won't go quietly....their last 5 losses have not been easy ones...... @KU ( A+ ).....lost by 2 Beat WVU ( A- ) by 6 @OK ( A ) ....lost by 12 Bay ( A- ).....lost by 6 Ia St ( A+ )...lost by 1 Triple OT @TTU ( B+ )....lost by 4 That is quite a mouthful. They had a great start ...blowout against Mem and a big win over Tex...and their numbers have carried them....The recent half dozen games have weaken them but OK St is still playing tough....I think their season will be decided this week....Tex and OK....if they go 2-0, they are back ....0-2 and their season is over

I gave UCLA a couple of points for the Tyus Edney win......

Through Sat Feb 8........ The Bills numbers were hurt slightly by the close win over LaS....But helped by the win by St. J....so overall a slight improvement. ...............The Wiz.............................AP poll Ariz............1.......................................2 Iowa...........2.......................................17 Duke..........3.......................................11 Kan............4........................................8 Lville..........5........................................14 Nova..........6.........................................6 Mich St.......7.........................................9 Creigh.........8.........................................12 Ohio St........9.........................................27 Fla...............10........................................3 Mich.............11.......................................11 Iowa St..........12......................................16 Ok St..............13......................................19 Wisc................14......................................26 Ky....................15.....................................18 Va....................16.....................................20 Syr...................17......................................1 Pitt....................18......................................25 UCLA................19.....................................ORV Wich St..............20....................................4 SDSU................21......................................5 Gonz..................22.....................................23 UConn...............23......................................22 THE BILLS........24......................................13 Ore.....................25......................................NR Other A-10 teams VCU 30 UMass 38 GW 42 And of course , a win over VCU next week ( a blow out) would kick us up nicely.

Well for starters, they have 20 wins...including some quality ones. Two that really helped them, were Stanford (A ) and Clemson,( A ) both blowouts. Anytime you blowout an A team that is going to help your numbers a lot. Our blowouts agaist Richmond, Dayton and St. J helped our numbers and those 3 teams were B+ teams. Pitt's 4 losses all were to ranked teams ...3 of them close. As a side note, I currently have moved Pitt down to 18. So is Pitt rated too high (or maybe too low)? You will have the answer this Wed. as Pitt plays Syr...a team I have at 17. ....#17 vs #18...I have Pitt by 2 1/2 over Syr.....Now if you believe the AP poll it is #1 Syr vs #25 Pitt....should be an easy win for Syr according to AP. Bottom line......If Pitt wins or comes within 5 of Syr then my numbers are validated.....If Syr wins easily then the AP is on target....we will see in a few days.

I don't want to beat a dead horse (or make pigs fly) but I do want to point out the difference between myself and MB. Post 28 in this thread is a good example. In that post slufanskip asks me why Tex is not in my poll . In post 30 I explain why they are missing. I can do this because it is my system....I input the data...I know what makes it tick. I doubt MB can tell you exactly why Tex (or SLU) is missing from his list because it is not his....he has copied it from a "credible (but unknown) source". He says in his post "he was surprised Duke was ranked so high on his list" I am never surprised because I am doing it....I know how it flows,,,,,which is why I was able to tell skip that if Tex won the next 2 games they would make it to the top 25. Unfortunately for Tex, the weakness in their numbers reared its head tonight and kept them down. Bottom line.... being the chef and preparing the meals is not the same as being a customer and eating the meals. I am the chef who prepares the meals...MB is the one who consumes them (or should I say regurgitates them ) without any understanding of the process. btw....I noticed he had the Bills as 10pt favorites vs my 5 1/2. He should have stopped at the Super Bowl.

I will take the win.....remember this was supposed to be a fairly close game (close game=5 or less points) Let's see how we did..... predicted..................................actual 3pt made...4 or less....................2..................check 3pt att...13 or less.......................8..................check 3pt %.....23.................................25................check not only because it was close but shots and att were so low Duren held to 14pts....................14.................check Duren and Mills held to 30% from 3.................They shot 50% (1-2) and 100% (1-1) but the totals were so low ,,check Bills shoot 44...............................47%................check Bills 14 or less TO.......................10...................check Jett 10 or more points...................25..................check So overall we did pretty much what we were supposed to do. Our 3 pt shooting was horrible...We shot 15.4% the lowest of the year.....even if we make 1 more three (still a bad 23%) we make the spread. On a positive note we shot another amazing FT game . This is the 3rd in a row...giving us an average of about 89% over the last 3 games.....making us one of the top shooting FT teams in the nation for the last 3 games...Who knew? And don't think they didn't make a difference in this game and the GM game. We are now tied for the longest winning streak in Bills history (over 2 seasons)...Let's break the record against VCU

Texas is an A rated team that I currently have at 31. They definitely have some quality wins, But they have been hurt by a couple of close wins . Their close wins are worse than ours. Teams like S Ala and TCU are much worse than A-10 bottom feeders With that said, there is not a whole lot of difference between Tex and the Bills....in fact there is a lot of bunching between 23 and 39, As you get into the top 25 it is difficult to move up (or stay put) If you have a close game against a so-so team there are at least a few teams right behind you out of a dozen waiting to take your spot with their good game. If Tex wins their next 2 they will make it into my top 25 list.

@Jimbo....ORV= others receiving votes @kwyjibo and Zink....+1....thanks for saving me some writing though I don't think you got through....a point of information...in addition to using my regular models, I also use a Bayesian LRMC (Logistic Regression Markov Chain ) which was developed at Georgia Tech for the purpose of ranking NCAA basketball teams. @MB....-1....I moved Duke to number 2 so I could be your friend.....there is just no pleasing you. As a result of this, I am going to have to revoke your Billiken parking pass.

I don't think they are under rated...They are an A rated team (29th) about the same as VCU

Well thanks to a great game last night plus some extra time I had at 30000 feet, I now have the first official Top 25 list. I did a faux list a few weeks ago (25+1) but this is the real deal. The last few years, I have been out leading the pack in terms of ranking the Bills. I was off to a good start this year until Jan....then I started to lag (and still do)....But at least we are on the list now. If you are unhappy about the lag...blame RI, Duq and GM. These teams wrecked our numbers. We have got to dominate weaker teams (beat them by at least the spread) But there has been a weird quirk.....Every time we have played a bottom feeder, it was followed by a B+ team that we beat down, This would pretty much fix the damaged numbers, So for the last month we have been treading water. Hopefully that will end on Sat with a whuppin of LaS. In any case, here are my rankings................ ..........................................................The Wiz.......................................AP Poll Ariz....................................................1...............................................2 Duke...................................................2.............................................11 Iowa...................................................3...............................................17 Louisville............................................4................................................14 Kan.....................................................5................................................8 Creighton.............................................6..............................................12 Mich St................................................7................................................9 Nova...................................................8.................................................6 Fla......................................................9..................................................3 Mich...................................................10...........................................;....10 Iowa St................................................11...............................................16 OK St..................................................12..............................................19 Ohio St..................................................13...............................................27 Ky..........................................................14...............................................18 Pitt..........................................................15...............................................25 Wisc.......................................................16................................................26 Syr..........................................................17...............................................1 UCLA......................................................18...............................................ORV Va...........................................................19................................................20 Wich St...................................................20................................................4 SDSU.....................................................21..................................................5 Gonz.......................................................22..................................................23 Cinn........................................................23...................................................7 Ariz St.....................................................24...................................................NR THE BILLS.............................................25...................................................13 Others VCU.........................................................28 UMass......................................................34 GW...........................................................44 Mizz...........................................................49 Illini............................................................63 I will continue to update the list after every game unless we fall off.

First a leftover stat....Bills set a new Fetz FT record of 92% during the GM game eclipsing the 09 St. J game of 86% Now onto last night...Welcome to the longest single season winning streak (15 ) in Bills history..... a win over LaS will tie our longest winning streak ever.....1947-48 into 1948-49. The Bills ( A ) continue a strange pattern of struggling with bottom feeders and then crushing a good team. After barely winning against cellar dwellers (RI, Duq & GM) the next game we played, the teams were all ranked at B+ (Day, Rich & St. J)....and we whupped em. We now face LaS ( B ). This will be their World Series. Here is what we need to do to win.... LaS is slightly below average in 3's....we need to hold them to 23%....no more than 4 made ...limit to 13 att Stop Duren....Hold him to less than 14pts....Mills is their othe 3pt shooter....hold them both to under 30% from the arc We always win when we........ shoot 44%...............11-0 get 6 or more 3pt....11-0 have 14 or less TO...7-0 hold opp to 49 or less....5-0 hold opp to 31.9% FG or less ...5-0 Loe makes 3 threesor more.......5-0 when Jett scores 10pts or more...16-1....(Yes it is better than our game winning %...ask Backhand for the math A chance to make history again ...let's go for 16.

Yes.....Wisc by 2 over WSU....Badgers shock em

Yeah,.. but can this guy do a spread or is he only a Jam guy....I prefer strawberry over grape

SDSU.............A Kan................A+ Creighton.......A+ Marq...............B+ Boise...............A- And since this is a thread about Wichita....the only other team that has an outside chance to beat them is N. Iowa on Sat. N.Iowa=Ind St...so you could see the same type of game as tonight.....close and then WSU pulling it out at the end.