Are we really better this year?

[philliken]

This is why SLU IS a better team in my opinion. If you would have told me pre-season that we would be 9-3 with the three losses coming to UNC, Texas A&M, and SIU (Not happy about that loss but regardless); we all would have been happy with that start. The recent SLU teams would be 6-6 or somewhere in that vicinity. The games we were supposed to win (and even 1 we weren't), we took care of business. No losses to BAD teams. At the end of the year, 3 bad losses wipe out 3 good wins. Avoid the bad losses like we have, win the games we're supposed to, and we will have 20 or 22 wins. And again, pre-season we ALL would have taken a 22 win season like the one we CAN have this year.

[philliken]

After studying Ole Miss; I see a beatable team....not a guaranteed win, but a game we SHOULD win. So if we do, we end the non-conference schedule at 10-3! That leaves 17 conference games. 10-7 = 20 wins, with NO chance of a bid. What is the magic number? We might have to win AT LEAST 23, going 13-4 in A10 play.

So, say we do. We are 13-4 with losses (hopefully only) to Umass, Dayton, GW, and Xavier (no REAL bad losses), that should do it. Agree?...Disagree? Call me nuts. Just getting feedback. But 20 wins will DO NOTHING.

[slufanskip]

16 conference games ... 2 more non conf. Houston and Miss.

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[RUBillsFan]

Sorry to nit-pick, but you have to remember that our game at Houston is also a non-conference game. So there are 16 conference games and 1 nonconference after Ole Miss. I think basically no matter what the Bills can only lose 4 more games this year and still hope to possibly make it to the NCAA tourny with an at large bid.

[philliken]

Thank you for the correction. You are right, there was an oversight with the Houston game. My point regardless stands the same. We still need to win 23ish...so 12-4 or 13-3 in conference. That is a LOFTY goal...but that's what makes sports so entertaining. Read my tagline from Rudy.

[Quality Is Job 1]

It will be a home game for the Bills; they pushed the Colonials to the brink in their place last year.

I believe the Bills should be able to go 13-3 in A-10 play, with the only losses coming at UMass, Dayton, and Xavier. If they want to be a Tournament team, anything less is unacceptable. Then, who expected the Bills to sweep Xavier or get swept by Dayton last year? If this team learns to play a complete game -- especially on the defensive side of the ball, they could do even better. 16-0 in the A-10 and two wins in the conference tournament could get the Bills a #4 seed or better, but that's a best-case scenario, and they've yet to play a best-case-scenario game.

The Bills have tended to wear down against good teams, and they will continue to do so until Coach Soderberg increases his rotation a little to get the key players the needed breaks earlier in the games. And the fatigue factor will increase as the season goes on. Erwin Claggett did little in his NCAA Tournament games his senior year because he'd been worn out. Only Scott Highmark's stepping up enabled the Bills to reach the '95 second round. Larry Hughes looked like a shell of himself against Kentucky in '98, and it wasn't like he dominated in the win of UMass. The same thing might play out with Tommie Liddell this year if Coach Soderberg doesn't find a way to get him a little more rest throughout the season.