ACE Posted December 19, 2006 Share Posted December 19, 2006 I just skimeed the RPI and there is some strange stuff. Loyola is ranked around 28, we're in the 40s and Texas A&M is ranked in the 60s?!?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted December 19, 2006 Share Posted December 19, 2006 pacific and houston for example have been a lot less than we expected. a&m probably isnt as schedule conscience being in the big 12. right now we are the third toughest team they have played and we saw how that turned out. they lost the two toughest games they played. when they get into big 12 play and assuming they are as good as most beleive their rpi will zoom. loyola like us knows they have to schedule a little tougher to have a chance at an at large berth. thus they have already played us, ohio state, purdue, wisconsin green bay, san diego, northern iowa and princeton. while some of those arent top 25 power houses, they are all not buy teams either. couple that with winning more than they lose 2-1, they have a very good rpi thus far. they have to as their conference season could have the opposite effect that a&m's does. the horizon is two notches below the a-10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aj_arete Posted December 19, 2006 Share Posted December 19, 2006 Butler will be in the NCAA. Loyola is a possible bubble. Couldn't one make the argument that the Horizon is better than the A-10 and at the minimum, comparable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted December 19, 2006 Share Posted December 19, 2006 aj from strictly a basketball aspect on a given year that might be true. most years butler and loyola arent both at this level and i would say most years there is no way that the horizon would rival the a-10. fyi, as good as loyola and butler are doing right now, the overall rpi ranking of the horizon conference is 14 right now and the a-10 is two positions better at 12. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aj_arete Posted December 19, 2006 Share Posted December 19, 2006 That seems to me that both will be 1-bid conferences if their conference champion wins. Now maybe I misinterpreted you when you said a couple notches below. I interpreted that as meaning the A-10 was on another level. Now if you meant spots, then I understand, but I don't know if that means anything. Both are considered mid-majors this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box and Won Posted December 19, 2006 Share Posted December 19, 2006 The Horizon got two bids back in 03, so let's hope that happens again (if Loyola doesn't win the conference tournament). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted December 19, 2006 Share Posted December 19, 2006 if the billikens can win 2 of the three remaining non-conference games and finish in second place in the a-10 i cant see how they wont still be at a 40 rpi or better. they will be in. xavier is likely in the same boat. they play illinois, kansas state and bucknell. dayton is on the bubble with three quality non conference games as well left to play with miami ohio, pitt and north carolina umass has road games with both louisville and kentucky as well as miami (fl) and yale at home. they likely need to win three of those to stay bubbly. the rest of the conference is screwed and would have to finish first in the conference with a great conf record to have a shot likely of gaining enough rpi juice. the problem is that all four of the above teams cant all finish second and first, thus we will be in for a dogfight after january 1. right now i want to make sure we win 2 of the remaining 3 non conference games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aj_arete Posted December 19, 2006 Share Posted December 19, 2006 Given the state of this conference, our RPI which is decent now will start to plummet. Therefore, I don't see SLU having a RPI in the 40s if they win 2 of their 3 remaining non-conference games. Actually, I think they'll need to beat UNC and finish in the top 2 of the A-10. But if they can't finish 2nd in the A-10, they don't belong in the NCAA. While this is SLU's best team since the Larry Hughes era, I don't think SLU is no more than the the 4th best team in the MVC. They were outplayed most of the night by MO State and only a meltdown allowed SLU to win the game. Having watched MO State in my limited time, this is par for the course. I've seen them melt down last year, too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwyjibo Posted December 19, 2006 Share Posted December 19, 2006 Right now according to RPIforecast we have about a 40% chance of being 40 or under (if you dare to dream big we have a 0.05%- 1 in 2000 -- of getting a top 8 RPI!). Or to put that into more familiar terms a 24-6 reg season puts at around 30, 23-7 puts us around 38 and 22-8 puts us at around 43. This situation has improved from last week as most teams we play won on Saturday (Sunday our past and future opponents took a bit of a dive). I have estimates that include the conference tourney as well but I don't think I will share those for a while (right now I am just crudely projecting a .500 team in the first round and then a .700 team semi final and .800 final so I will work on using actual A-10 records). If people are interested I would be happy to share more forecasts but it is still pretty early. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwyjibo Posted December 19, 2006 Share Posted December 19, 2006 You are pretty mistaken on your RPI analysis and your assessment of the A-10. SLU plays Xavier, Dayton, and Rhode Island twice and St. Bona, Duquesne only once. The point is, while the A-10 is not a great conference, it's bottom really stinks but has 5 post-season type teams. With the schedule SLU plays in conference it is like playing in a better league. Personally, I am pretty worried about the top 5-6 of the A-10 beating each other up and reducing individual profiles. We definitely need SLU (and/or Xavier and/or Dayton) to separate in conference. For the record if I had to choose from finishing 4th in the Valley this year and 2nd in the A-10 I would think the MVC challenge is a hair easier. People really need to stop thinking in average conference ratings when its the distribution/spread that matters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aj_arete Posted December 19, 2006 Share Posted December 19, 2006 because the A-10 is mid-major and the Horizon is low-major... OK... That's debatable, but I'll agree that the middle of the A-10 is superior to the Horizon, so I won't argue too hard on that point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRaginCajun Posted December 19, 2006 Share Posted December 19, 2006 I love these break downs you provide and encourage you do them relatively often. I would like to know where we stand after these two BSC home games we have coming up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwyjibo Posted December 20, 2006 Share Posted December 20, 2006 I'm confused as to why you are bringing up the Horizon with me. Also, I don't think the terms "mid-major" or "low-major" mean anything. If you are insinuating that I am bashing the MVC I am not (competitively it is better than the A-10 this year and last). I was just saying the top of the A-10 is not as bad as all the "A-10 is terrible" comments make it out to be. Also, conferences do not get bids (with a few caveats about unfair limits on unexpectedly good conferences), teams do. You need to understand it is about the distribution of teams in the conference at the end rather than the average RPI of the conference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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