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The Bills over UMass by 8


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As Yogi used to say....It is Deja Vu all over again....Welcome to UMass ...Part 2....If you need the full UMass analysis , I refer you to last Saturday's spread thread... ...The Bills over UMass by 12.... Not much has changed since then...The Bills haven't played since that game and UMass has beaten up on a weaker , worn out opponent.  In the  Wiz's Friday Forecast thread, I mentioned we would be playing UMass on Fri and here we are.

First , lets review some Dance bid percentages.....

We go into this game with a 45% chance to get a bid.....

If we win, we go up to 59%....if we lose ....35% 

As for the game itself , we come in overall at A- ...trending at B+....Our win against UMass only slightly improved our numbers.  You don't get many points for beating a weaker team at home.  UMass comes into this game overall at B- ....trending at B.   UMass has a slight advantage in having an easy warmup game, while we haven't played since Mon . 

Our advantage is , depth.   Even with the  UMass blowout game it was mostly the starters who played....15 out 0f 100 pts came from the bench . In a tight game , it will be pretty much 5 players.   UMass starters played enough minutes yesterday , to feel it  today especially in the 2nd half.

No injuries for either team....Strickland out on Covid protocol.

WWN2D2W....Again, if you want to see this paragraph in full, see the last Sat spread thread. For this game...UMass will jump on us at the opening bell ...come at us hard....we need to try and hold off any surge ....play our game... try to neutralize the surge...protect the ball ..avoid early errors......And then somewhere in the first 5 to 10 min start to grind them down. Of course , we need to shoot well too.

Bottom line.... We are the better team with the better depth....If we play our game and avoid errors...forced and unforced...we win...Let's do it....again.

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Thanks Wiz. Very appreciative of the work you put into this. Is the 4 points the neutral court factor or did the margin of victory yesterday for UMass give them a bump? Or both? Just curious. UMass has such a limited body of work I assume their numbers are more volatile. 

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47 minutes ago, shempie said:

Thanks Wiz. Very appreciative of the work you put into this. Is the 4 points the neutral court factor or did the margin of victory yesterday for UMass give them a bump? Or both? Just curious. UMass has such a limited body of work I assume their numbers are more volatile. 

If you look at the Wiz's Friday Forecast,  in that post , I said we were going to face UMass and it would be about 9 pts.  So the  fact that the new spread is only 8 means that UMass picked up a point in 1 game which is a lot considering they were playing a weaker team....they got a little more credit for the win because they beat St. J on neutral ground. The other 3 points are because we are on neutral ground.....and yes they do have a limited body of work,  so it does make things more volatile.  Also, the fact they have limited depth also leads to more volatility....a player having a good or bad day can push the numbers up and down more quickly.  In this game , it is most important to control Mitchell...keep him to 15 pts or less.   Whenever there are any substitutions , we need to ramp up scoring.

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1 minute ago, someoneelse said:

Referring to yourself in the third person, I love it.  Very Constanza!!

LOL....Wasn't that Jimmy in Seinfeld who spoke in 3rd person?

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Since most of the forecasted stats are on last Saturday's UMass spread thread ..you can check them out  and you will see they compare favorable to the outcome.

For this game I thought we would try something different....Compare the actual results of the 2 games...The Bills play the same team in 2 important games back to back in 4 days.

The 1st stat that jumps out is FG shooting by the Bills in both games...1st game 50%  ..2nd game 49.2% but even more amazing  is the actual shot totals.............1st game 30-60...2nd game...30-61 almost identical....3P was close especially on att  6-10  vs 4-11.......Rebs for UMass in the 2 games 23 & 22...Bills Blks 3  and 3....UMass had 11 more FTM.....we had 10 more FTM...2nd chance pts in the 2 games  11 vs 11 for the Bills

Here were the difference makers...TOs 13 which matched our last game of 13 BUT on Mon  UMass had 17 TOs  and on Sat they had only 8 ...a difference of 9  (1st game 10 steals for us and only 3 the 2nd game)...this could have been a killer but instead only narrowed the margin....what saved us was an outstanding game on the boards...We had a big edge in the first game...36-23 but a whopping 45-22 in the 2nd game.

 We are the better team with the better depth....If we play our game .....we win...Let's do it....again. ........We were and we did

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