kwyjibo Posted January 29, 2004 Share Posted January 29, 2004 Here are my updated RPI projections for SLU. The best use of this is to see what the Billikens need to do to get "on the board". From there on their "profile" (below) plays a big role. All the end of the year matters still would apply (upset wins of conference tourneys, SLU's own conference tourney run, etc.) However, this is fairly accurate at this point. I will probably add specific conference tournament based final RPI's as well (that is more difficult to project but you can get somewhat accurate by mid-February). If you think SLU can go 10-6 in conference and get any consideration at all you are mathematically/historically wrong. Using mathematical/historical factors would also mean that 11-5 would get us on the board like last year. BUT without a run to the conference tourney final and few "outsiders" winning their tourneys, 11-5 would most likely mean SLU will go to the NIT. Sorry, SLU definitely would need some quality road wins in their profile beyond Dayton for 11-5 to fly. They still have ample opportunity to do this luckily. As difficult as it may be to achieve, even 12-4 does not get us a comfortable place to sit on selection Sunday (but this would mean we got a few top 50 wins so SLU would have a pretty good profile) but a lot of factors outside SLU's control would then come into play. [Table Border =9][tr][td align=center]Conf Record[/td] [td]Remaining Games[/td] [td]Final RPI Rank[/td] [/tr][tr][td]10-6 [/td] [td](6-4)[/td] [td]72[/td] [/tr][tr][td]11-5 [/td] [td](7-3)[/td] [td]62[/td] [/tr][tr][td]12-4 [/td] [td](8-2)[/td] [td]50[/td] [/tr][tr][td]13-3 [/td] [td](9-1)[/td] [td]39[/td] [/tr][/table] I have done this for several years and most years I am criticized for being hopelessly naive and optimistic about SLU chances (many years SLU would have a much better chance because SOS). I find it a bit funny that now that SOS has changed I am somehow way too conservative. I am only trying to project as accurately and realistically as possible. This is a direct result of feeling cheated in the late 80's thinking SLU deserved a few at large bids. My method is actually a bit more optimistic than what I did last year (there is a problem in the projected final RPI rankings in that there are no upsets--so there is a greater RPI spread than what will really happen and I try to account for this this year by including a factor about the usual distribution of the RPI. For the math/stats geeks out there the distribution of RPI numbers are remarkably similar year to year. In fact teams need to get to .580 RPI rather than ranking of 40 or less but the ranking is easier to think about. Here are the OFFICIAL criteria for the teams NCAA selection profile. If you are going to talk about SLU's chances please talk about real criteria (how these criteria are weighted amongst themselves are more tricky and what bracketology is all about). Generally, we should not care what your favorite TV pundit suffering from innumeracy thinks (and no matter how many times you or Dickie V. says it there is no such thing as Santa Claus or "slots per conference") : Division I record; Overall RPI; Non-conference record; Non-conference RPI; Conference record; Conference RPI; Road record; Record in last 10 games; Record against teams ranked 1-50 by RPI; Record against teams ranked 51-100 by RPI; Record against teams ranked 101-200 by RPI; Record against teams ranked below 200 by RPI; Record against other teams that are under consideration (i.e., "board teams"). http://www.ncaasports.com/basketball/mens/story/6985142 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted January 29, 2004 Share Posted January 29, 2004 it is pretty close to what i was thinking. no arguments from me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3star_recruit Posted January 29, 2004 Share Posted January 29, 2004 I'm enjoying the season regardless of whether we make the NCAAs this year or not. It's only a matter of time. The reason we've been in a holding pattern the last four of years is we haven't had any true D-1 depth beyond our starting five. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bauman Posted January 29, 2004 Share Posted January 29, 2004 I can't agree with you more-I have had enough of 30 post threads about are we going to the Dance. Let's just enjoy as good year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwyjibo Posted January 30, 2004 Author Share Posted January 30, 2004 I am enjoying the wins and feeling the losses too. Last night I listened on the radio and felt horrible. I have enjoyed the season generally. I am pumped up even if I post "objective" information about the RPI. I really had a great time watching the Arizona game and will be hosting a small get together for the Marquette TV game. I will be going out to a bar for a few games as well (last night I even braved the pre-game Celtic fans/drunks near the Fleet Center to see if a few of the bigger sports bars down there had old-school satellite to watch the game (they don't). I may even be making a trip to St. Louis or Chicago or Cincy to see a game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted January 30, 2004 Share Posted January 30, 2004 looking at the conferences right now, i think that 9 conferences will get 2 or more bids. (assuming no tourney upsets. haha like that wont happen!) i am guessing: acc 7 sec 7 big least 6 big 12 5 big 10 5 cusa 5 pac 10 3 a-10 3 mountain 2 the rest only deserve one unless a tourney upset of a top 40 team. that of course would take teams away. strangely, the big ten teams except wisconsin, are all probably bubble teams. where this could change is if the sec, acc and big least teams dont get to 500 within their conference. that has always been a seldom picked team is the team that has a good rpi but maybe a game under 500 in conference play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUFAN2000 Posted January 30, 2004 Share Posted January 30, 2004 i agree with you for the most part, but I think that the big 10, big 12, and conference usa are iffy for 5 bids. I don't want to say they won't get 5 bids, but they could all go either way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cujaysfan Posted January 30, 2004 Share Posted January 30, 2004 MVC is looking like a 2 bid league... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted January 30, 2004 Share Posted January 30, 2004 like i said, the big 10's bids past wisconsin are all bubble teams. big 12 only the 5th spot would be a bubble team. 2 of cusa would be bubbles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted January 30, 2004 Share Posted January 30, 2004 carbondale is the only team under 50. i guess someone else wins the conference other than siu it becomes two teams as siu would really have to screw up to not get in now. they are at 30 today. that is the only way i see two teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cujaysfan Posted January 30, 2004 Share Posted January 30, 2004 cu is in top 60 in rpi 59 vs 84 for bills current rpi comparison... salukis are definitely in driver seat...but the race isnt over as jays and SIU still haven't played... however - this has been a two bid league since 1997 and in 98 was a 3 bid league - so history leads me to believe that two will get in... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted January 30, 2004 Share Posted January 30, 2004 i am not counting the billikens in the 5 seeds for conference usa. i say we have little to no chance of getting in unless we win the tourney in cincy. in the past, when the mvc had multiple bids, creighton and siu were both closer or lower to the magical 40 rpi mark. creighton will almost have to run the table at this point to get to that mark. if they do win their remaining games, they would be in anyway by winning the conference tourney. thus their two bids. without that, i dont think creighton can get low enough. maybe kwyjibo can figure it out for you. just because you got the multi bids before doesnt grandfather that many thereafter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cujaysfan Posted January 30, 2004 Share Posted January 30, 2004 i agree the CU rpi is higher than i would like - but with the bracket buster - and CU to get the highest home seed available as that is what espn wants - will help i also realize that while the past doesn't predict the future - it is foolish not to look at history and how it can apply here. the last time the MVC was a one bid conf - the league rpi was ranked about 16th - it is currently in the 9-12th range with very litte seperating those conferences. the mvc will have two teams in again. frankly - all this speculation is mental mastrubation as there is still half of conference play to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted January 30, 2004 Share Posted January 30, 2004 a few of those seasons the mvc got 2 bids or more it was because the deserving low rpi team got beat in the tourney and the committee was forced into giving the extra seeds. also the last couple of seasons, both creighton and siu were under the magical 40 mark, thus they both got in. it really has nothing to do with where the conference is. the conference ranking just gives you an idea overall how strong the teams are top to bottom. the fact the mvc is up to 11 or 12 now only means the bottom teams are finally improving more. unfortunately the top has gotten worse. they only have 3 teams under 100 and wichita is barely under. as to the "still half the season left" point, if the conference had a couple of jaugernaut teams to propel the others rpi upon upsets, you might have a point, but in the mvc's case, in reality all that can really happen to creighton unless they beat siu is to go down mostly in the case of losses to the far weaker rest of the pack. even a win vs siu might not be enough without the other games as well. i say they got to win them all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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