Old guy
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Posts posted by Old guy
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51 minutes ago, WVBilliken said:
It makes perfect sense to me that a deal may be in place, but will not be announced until Schertz's current team completes its season. For Schertz or any dignified coach, that is the right thing to do IMO.
WVBilliken there is a vast difference between the two of us. You believe that May announcement will confirm that Shertz will, I on the other hand do not believe him. I prefer to see what happens and if May is correct, good for May he managed to do something correctly. If he is not correct May confirms my belief that he is not capable of handling this hiring.
I think that if Schertz wins the NIT with his ISU team he may well try go elsewhere. Of course, we will find out what happens when it happens. And by the way, as long as they have a viable second choice candidate ready to come in, I will have no problems if Schertz decides to go elsewhere.
David King likes this -
Yes they can, but had they won this game, and they were very close before the overtime, they would have been the 3rd time in history (or so they said during the game) that a 14th seed had gone to sweet sixteen level. By the way the president of Oakland was present at the game with his wife, and a crystal slipper. He was ready to play the Cinderella role, with everything including the silver slipper.
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Let me get this straight, it may appear that Schertz may be looking for better placement than SLU? In other words he is holding us to see if he can get a better opportunity elsewhere? Of course, the thought will never occur to May that he may be playing us for a better deal. If he continues delaying, just screw him and go for someone else.
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Sorry to see Oakland eliminated.
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19 minutes ago, Cowboy II said:
-OG using sarcasm, to almost quote Molly Hatchet things I thought I'd never see
Yes, that is something I rarely do. I hope you are referring to the blue font post about our AD.
The long post about investment in answer to Willie is totally serious and not intended as sarcasm.
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7 hours ago, willie said:
Whether catastrophe is in the future is not my point. You said the direction of the market is uncertain. It’s always uncertain but currently the momentum is up and has been for the last year. As the great Marty Zweig said don’t fight the tapes
I assume you did not look closely at the US Debt. org site I referred you to. Too bad it is a very good reference to have at hand.
I do not fight the tapes, but I also do not buy when the market is at an all time high. My idea is that to buy low and sell high you have to buy when the market is low not when it is at an all time high. Surely you can use momentum to make money in an up market, but you have to be ready to exit at a very short notice because momentum securities tend to fall as fast as they go up and you can get trapped trying to sell to a market with no buyers.
Is fixed income secure nowadays? I doubt it. The big buyers have lost money because the price of their US bonds decreased as their yield increased. At any rate the demand for long term US bonds coming from big buyers has gone down. The Fed is not buying new long term US bonds and other securities as the ones in their balance sheet mature. Large holders of US bonds are selling large amounts of US bonds and not replacing them. Therefore the only way to sell new issues of US long term bonds is to increase their yield and lower their prices until they find buyers. This is done by the market.
Benjamin Graham, Marty Zweig and Peter Lynch, were great investors that lived and worked in a different market than the one we have now. I have books written by all 3 of them.
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1 hour ago, willie said:
How can you say the market can’t make up its mind. It’s trading at an all time high. Can it change its mind tomorrow. Of course but the trend is and has been higher.
Just for the heck of it Willie, check this out.
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1 hour ago, billiken_roy said:
story i got is ford agreed to annual pmts. i.e. slu doesnt have to come up with all the money at once. and who knows the deal might also be if he is rehired somewhere he has to give credit to slu for the new salary. this above is all rumors and speculation. i have no idea what is fact.
Ford is better off with annual payments. Right now the market cannot make its mind as to where it is headed. Better to have a guaranteed income for some years than get a lump sum, pay an enormous amount of taxes, and invest it in something that goes down.
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2 hours ago, TheA_Bomb said:
Ha OG laying the smack down on May. Love it.
I'm in town OG let's go tear up the East Side is Pop's Annex still a thing? Sauget we're on the way
Sorry ABomb, I was hospitalized in November and I am still recovering. Some other time, perhaps we can go and have dinner before a game.
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35 minutes ago, cheeseman said:
If Rule 2 comes into to play then I fear we will fighting over the scraps.
Why would you think that way? Remember we have a decorated AD that will handle all issues effectively to get the best coach for SLU.
TheA_Bomb likes this -
1 hour ago, billikenbill said:
I enjoy your dalliances using AI for these hilarious posts. I’m a little behind on newer technology so how does one go about accessing the AI function? Looks like fun and I hope to try it out.
There was a time when I was heavy into AI use for market trading, 6-8 years, used Ward's Neuroshell Day Pro which is great and offers almost infinite numbers of variations. I quit this in 2014 after the death of my son. I know real AI, ChatGPT is basically a toy not a usable AI, at least in my opinion. I have never used it. Sorry I cannot help you with this.
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28 minutes ago, almaman said:
Wow was it on TV?
Yes it was, my wife is the true basketball and spends a lot of time finding these on TV. We use Spectrum
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1 hour ago, BrettJollyComedyHour said:
It's nuts in this day and age to have a coach for 40+ years.
Maybe yes, maybe no. I have not checked the school, but there are tiny to small colleges that really have extremely low resources for an athletic program. Many of these manage to have them by using multipurpose facilities much like a small high school gyms that can be used as basketball courts, gyms, auditoriums, or theaters. I do not know this for sure but these schools probably pay very low salaries to their coaches, and almost certainly have difficulties to get more money to pay coaches a better salary. Under these conditions it makes sense to maintain a low paid coach for a long time.
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I watched the Kentucky vs Oakland (Michigan) game. I left a lengthy post in the other games thread.
It was an incredible game.
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2 minutes ago, BrettJollyComedyHour said:
It appears he's only 68, is that as ancient as you, OG?
Nope I am a fair amount older. The coach looked ancient.
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I just watched a most incredible game. It was Kentucky U (3rd seed) vs Oakland College (from Michigan 14th seed), they played in Pittsburgh. Oakland beat Kentucky 80 to 76. Oakland has an ancient coach they hired in the 1980s. He was so old that one of his best players when he started coaching there, had a son playing with this team. As the game came close to the end the Oakland coach was sweaty, poppy eyed, and red in the face. I honestly feared he was going to have an MI right there and require resuscitation right there and then. They had a crazy 3 point shooter that had transferred from a D2 school, Goehlke or something like that was his name. Nobody had ever hit more than 8 3 pointers against Kentucky under Calipari and this Goehlke guy did. Oakland had a very low turnover rate 3 or 4 TOs for the whole game, and their FT shooting was not that good, so their scores were mostly field goals. Both teams had very good defense.
Oakland College advances to the second round for the first time ever in the history of the school. I do not know how many times they have gone to the dance, but I am sure this may be their first or second time. The coach was beyond himself when he was interviewed, Goehlke was calm and collected.
I think we may have our Cinderella team for this Dance here if they can keep on playing this way. I hope their coach does not have a cardiac event as they advance in the tournament.
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From my point of view, Pestello was a person that looked for consensus. Yet he managed to maintain SLU in a good financial status by cutting money losing programs. He improved the medical area by making the hospitals part of SSM and managed to maintain the student enrollment level and not lose ground when so many schools have done so. He also maintained the academic standards. All of this is good.
I think it is understandable that he could not give more time to the Athletic Department, he had bigger fish to fry. One thing I wonder about is whether or not we will see the departure of May before he leaves.
SLU_Lax likes this -
The forecast of a win by ISU last night was based upon two teams, intact with their coaches and with the performance history and stats of a full season of play available. It was pretty accurate and rightfully so.
What you are doing for next year can be compared with a maiden horse race in the sense that a maiden horse race has some hard data available, you have valid performance history about the jockeys that are running the horses, you have valid genetic pedigrees for the horses, and you have weather information plus you know the condition of the track (dry, muddy, what have you). You also know whose race horse breeder is entering every horse, know about the breeder's jockeys, the training their horses receive, and their performance under different track conditions. As a matter of fact you have enough solid data to have a rough idea to (again in a rough manner) have an idea of every horse's handicap. People that do this for a living and study the data (racing form ? cannot remember the name). I had a friend during residency that took me to Pimlico and gave me a demonstration of how accurate you can be with this kind of date, then he paid for dinner. By the way after that demonstration, I came to the conclusion that horse racing was not for me.
Basketball is completely different from horse racing. It is a team sport, horse racing is a team only in the sense that it includes a horse, a jockey, the track and the breeder. Truly you can successfully call a race if you know the kind of data I described above with enough accuracy to make it possible to bet at the races and come out at the other end with more money than you came in with. Things are much more difficult when two teams with multiple players and multiple coaches pitted against one another. A lot depends not on individual talent and capability but upon how well the team plays together and how well it is lead by the coaches.
I am not saying it is not possible to make educated guesses on the performance of a basketball team for the following season, Transfer players from other colleges have valid stats, and you are capable of developing an idea of the coaches performance and how they lead their team. However, no one can predict anything that changes drastically between seasons. That refers to injuries. You may be aware of injuries that happen during the summer but projections as to how they will affect playing performance during the following season or how well recovered the player will be by the time the season starts. It should be mentioned that there is a psychological dimension to recovery from a major injury. Players may play more cautiously to avoid a repeat injury. Therefore, unless or until you have seen post injury practices or actual games, you cannot determine how the new team (the recovered injured player plus the new players) are going to perform during the season. This is exactly why you need a number of actual games for the Bayesian part of the system to become more accurate and more capable of making good forecasts.
I do realize that people with a large fund of prior experience in forecasting can make approximate predictions as to how specific teams or leagues are going to do for the year. However, prior to the first game of the season, these have to be taken as educated guesses, which may indeed be reasonably accurate. You, the Wiz, are absolutely capable to do this prior to any season, but let's agree that forecasting college basketball games is a hell more accurate at the end of the season when a full season of play data and performance are available.
And I agree with your computer's conclusion that the Bill's luck may change for the better next season.
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7 hours ago, Soderball said:
So the computer is saying Flyers and Rams are in trouble next year? I like the computer.
The computer cannot predict the future, what it can do and actually does is to extrapolate stats from this season into the next season. However, it cannot accounts for factors like injuries, loss of players to the portal, or new players coming into a team from the portal. In other words, it cannot account for changes that have not happened yet but that will have an impact upon next season.
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All the best to Hargrove in his professional career.
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1 hour ago, gobillsgo said:
I know it’s kind of your thing to be Devil’s Advocate on this board, and I respect the willingness to “commit to the bit”, but we obviously don’t want to have to wait until April to name Schertz coach. Maybe you don’t care who our coach is, but potential transfers and recruits do.
Gobillsgo, you have absolutely no choice, and no one else has a choice either. We have to wait until the coach ends leading the ISU team. That means they have to lose a game to some other school. Only then will he come. The Wiz did a rapid check in the NIT contestants and came to the conclusion that Nova could beat ISU. Not so, VCU ended Nova's run tonight. You have no choice but wait.
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Regarding the computer's calculations that Nova might have a good chance to knock ISU out of the tournament, nope, it is not going to happen. VCU knocked Nova out of the tournament tonight, ISU will not do the job.
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Here is a very old piece of wisdom: Trust takes a long time to develop and is destroyed in a second by suspicion. It may take a fair amount of time to get attendance to build up once more, even with a winning coach. This is not a matter of Schertz vs Ahearn, people that used to renew their seats automatically have not renewed for years in some cases and have lost the habit or replaced it with something else. If you wish to blame someone, blame May.
David King likes this -
58 minutes ago, TRN said:
I think they have well over 7 figures, considering the buyout is 7-8 figures. Think more like in the 9-10 figures.
Still, the buyout is no chump change. Hopefully SLU doesn’t get in this situation again.
My error I meant to say 10+ figures (billion +), and if May stays in the error is likely to be made again
TheA_Bomb likes this
Schertz
in Billikens.com Main Board
Posted
Let's think about this in real terms. Schertz is a good coach with a very good team but does not make a lot of money. He likes his team and likes the school and possibly the city as well. Indiana state is trying as hard as it can to keep in, that means more money. As far as I know the team likes him a lot.
He has done very well in the NIT and has won every game he has played. I think it is a real possibility that he wins the NIT. I think he would have come here if he had been beaten by other school already, but that is not the case. He is likely seeing new interest from other schools, so he has options. He is a good coach and a good guy. May, on the other hand is not a very capable person.
I do not trust May, and Schertz may or may not have other options.