The Wiz

You know, we beat X by 11 here in the first game. I thought that was our best game of the season. If we can again have our "best game of the season" we can beat them there. If we just play "average" Bills ball we lose by 11. I will admit, we do seem to have their number.

BTW, nice to see IV making foul shots. It looks like he is putting an arc on the ball again.

According to Sagarin top confs ACC, Pac10, & SEC

No that doesn't take Kevin into account. The theory is that over time injuries, bad calls, etc are figured in and affect both teams and average out. With that said, the Bills are one of the tougher teams to predict whether people are healthy or not. The win over St J was a good one. They need to beat GW to break the 1-4 pattern that was showing up on these tough 5 games. Hopefully the last win will create some momentum.

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I would like to take credit for the "formula" but it isn't mine. A little history. I received the program while taking a class from MIT math wiz Daryl Morey. (former VP of Ops for Bos Celtics and soon to be GM of the Hou Rockets) He took a formula developed by Bill James (baseball stat guru) that predicted the outcome of baseball games and modified it for basketball. It's generally been pretty accurate. It gets better as the season goes on. (more data) One thing I have noticed this year are my spreads have been close to the newspaper's spreads. Don't know if that's a coincidence or the gamblers have morphed their numbers.

I agree that the next 5 games are the season. When I made my preseason picks (16-14) these 5 picks are what put me at the bottom of the list. I show us 1-4. I have us winning the GW game and losing the X game. The good news is the other 3 games are close and therefore we have a good chance to win them if the team that beat Charl shows up.

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4-4

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You are correct. At the beginning of the season from this point on I was showing the Bills @ 6-10 the rest of the way. Revised figures now show the Bills @ 9-7 the rest of the way. Beginning of the season picks --losses only---Xav twice, Temp, Ford, Hou, St J, GW, @RI, UMass, @Day 3 changes @ mid season thereby going from 6-10 the rest of the way to 9-7 are ---Wins @ Ford, GW & @ RI

Make that 9-7 the rest of the way

Cheese-- Sorry, I was out of town for the Bonnies game. It doesn't look like I missed much. I did have SLU winning that one by 9. A bad miss for me. I still can't figure out how we lost to such a bad team. Even if we had a bad night we still should have ground out a win. Unfortunately, I am on target for my yearly prediction. I say unfortunately because I have the Bills @ 16-14 for the year which put me @ or near the bottom of the list for predictions. I have missed 2 games (Mo St & the Bonnies game) but because they have canceled each other out I am at 10-4 which matches the Bills. On a positive note-- reworking the remainder of the games for the rest of the season--the numbers have improved (you would never guess that by this board). I am showing the Bills @ 9-6 which would give them 19 wins. I would take that.

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I am showing MSU by 4 over the Bills

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SLU by 16

I am showing Loyola by 7

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As in 1st round NBA pick. He said it was his dewam to be an NBA player. He wanted to get the feel of things at the NBA tryouts and to get a sense of what he needs to work on for next year. He said if he doesn't make 1st round he is coming back to school. He implied that he didn't plan on being a 1st rounder. No mention of going to Greece if things didn't work out