The Wiz

When you lose to good teams by a small margin you don't lose much ground. Our numbers weakened but we are still A rated. As others have pointed out, you want our opponents to win all their other games. I have us similar to North Carolina another team that is A rated with 2 losses (4-2) that will be Dancing. I watched UNC beat Louisville and the Tarheels looked like a final 4 team. Yet before that game they lost to Belmont (B+) and the game after Lville lost to UAB (C+). So yes good teams lose ...and in this case UNC's losses are worse than ours....but they will be there in March barring injury. It's not how you start...but how you finish.

D 2

And even sadder are trolls who are excluded from their own boards and have no where to go but visit opponent boards to ttalk smack. Maybe if you play nice they will let you back in.

I guess we are the Shockers best opponent of the season which is why the trolls continue to hang out here. No one else to talk to moving forward. It is always sad when a fan base doesn't know how to handle winning. To quote Ferris Bueller's final line....... " Are you still here?....It's over ....go home ....go "

You are being kind of hard on the Bills. After the WSU loss, I still have the Bills as an A team. ...A- and above teams are Dancing in March

What is this???.... "Schooled your ass" The tipping point was when we missed a foul shot with 30 seconds left in the game. Hardly a schooling. I thought maybe this was a joke post and then I read this and knew for sure ...."can't wait till we get some real competition in the MVC" ....and who would be this real competition?? ...maybe Creighton...oops they're gone...he must be talking about the replacement ...Chic Loyola....It will be tough for him to talk smack to a D- team. Fans with a D- team don't read or care about their team boards. The worst trolls are the ones who show up after the game ....only if there team wins. The coward troll. My take on today's game..... In my original post, I said we needed to hold WSU to 25% from the 3...They shot 42% (5-12)...knock off 2 shots (3-12...25%) and we win the game. Even with that, if we make that foul shot with 30 seconds left we still have a great chance to win. 2 losses in the first 8 games to A+ teams....and we could have won them both ... much better than a Santa Clara loss © last year...and that season turned out pretty well. I think if we play these 2 teams in Feb we win them both. Much too early too panic or throw the towel in. We are still a good team.

I have an extra ticket for today's game against WSU...no charge...pm me if interested

Bills (A) vs WSU (A+) Our 2nd elite team in less than a week. A win might be enough to get us ranked. It definitely would push us back up to elite. (A+) This is where the Wisc game should help...we have already faced an elite team so this will not be a new experience. Being in familar surroundings will help too. This game will be every bit as difficult as the Wisc. game. WSU is not a particularly good shooting 3pt team. If we take care of business we should be able to hold Wich to 13 shots or less making around 3. (22-25%) The Shockers will try to shock us with a rough and tumble style. Intimidation might be a good word. It would be nice to have some good refs for this game but you have to figure probably not. So it is important for us to stand our ground...be disciplined...without be goaded. I noticed the other night BYU lost their cool against WSU and not only took some stupid fouls but wound up with some technicals. This would not be a good thing for us if it is a close game. Crews seems to be pretty level headed. I trust he will keep the team under control. Finally, I would like to see us shoot at least 75% at the FT line. Could be an important factor in a close game. Of course, we need to shoot above 36% from the field or it won't matter what we do. Hopefully we have a capacity crowd to cheer the Bills to victory.

Ah, nothing like shooting better to cure some ills. The Bills shot much better last night but were still slightly below average....43% FT were off a little too...59% But we still won handily even if we didn't make the spread. This is an important point....when you are good ( A or better) you don't always have to play at your best to win. Sometimes you just need to not play horribly. In the Wisc game if we had shot 36% from the field and 73% from the FT line (our average) we would have won.. Neither of those numbers are remarkable. The 36% I would consider as a sub par game. However it was good enough to win. Good enough to win against an A+ team. In the ODU game, if we had shot the same against them as we did Wisc we would have lost last night. The point is as long as we play good D we can beat anyone even if we play subpar as long as we don't play horribly.(defined as below 36% FG shooting) That's the way it is when you are a good team.

Bills by 6 over Mizzou ( B+ )

Probably a mistake...I have Wisc by 6 over WVU....Like the other night when CBS had UMass over Cinn....they had the wrong UMass.

Our numbers slipped a little bit (back to A) but not too bad. If we win tonight and Sunday we will be back to A+ (elite) ODU (C- rated) is not a cupcake...just a so so team....This game team should be like the SEMO game. We need to shoot just a little bit better and we will be fine.

Well the good news was we did what we needed to do on 3pt D. I was looking for 15 or less 3pt Att...Wisc had 12....also needed to hold them to 33% or less....Wisc had 33% ...so far so good . The bad news is we had an abysmal night on offense. We normally shoot 47.3% from the field. If we make our average we win by 12. If we have an off night and shoot 37% , we are even. Instead we shoot less than a third (21-65...32.8%) and the game slips away. This happens to the best of teams. In any case this was a good learning experience.,...playing an A+ team and hanging close. This game will pay dividends down the road at tournament time and also as soon as next week when we face another A team in Wich St. If this is our worst loss of the year (6 pts to an A+ team) then we are in good shape. Time to put this aside and focus on ODU. Go Bills

Sorry I am a little late to the party but I was on the road. Well the good news is the Bills have been upgraded to A+.....So it will be the A+ Bills vs the A+ Badgers. This will be like a Sweet Sixteen game. It will be a back and forth affair. Good chance for OT. As I stated in some earlier posts , this will be our toughest opponent of the regular season. That could change if one of the future teams we play gets hot but for now it looks like this will be THE game. It will be a defining game for a few reasons. The obvious is that Wisc is an A+ ranked team ...beating them would put the Bills on the map both with publicity and ranking. It also would be a resume win too....a win that the Selection committee would take note of. Finally, this game (win or lose) will give us ( the fans, the media and the team) a good sense of where we stand. A win will give the team a little extra swagger. Even a close loss will not be too damaging. So how can we win? Let's get to the nitty gritty. As many of you know by now, one of my fav stats is 3pt D. And in this area the Bills have been trending very well. Through the first 5 games our numbers defending the 3 look like this.....starting with SEMO....24%, 21%, 20%, 18%, 12%. Pretty impressive. But here is the problem...Wisc is one of the best shooting 3 pt teams in the country....checking in at a scary 45.7%. So what we have here is ....the unstoppable force (Wisc) against the immovable object (The Bills) In order to win the Bills need to hold the Bsdger 3 pt attempts to 15 (still a lot) or less and keep the made shots to 5. These numbers wouldn't be bad for an average team but for a hot shooting team like Wisc. they will be disruptive enough to give us the win. If we have a great night and hold them to 13% (2 made) we could open up the spread to 9 or 10. If we let them play their game then it will be ....oh well. Also, the disorentation factor ...strange place (playing at the Hard Rock Hotel) plus strange land seem to affect 3 pt teams a little more (not to mention the ice) Bottomline...Will our D win out over their 3.... .....................My guess is yes... .....................and if true.... .................... it'll be a win for SLU

First off , a nice win last night over OR. Our numbers look much better this morning with a win and exceeding the spread over a decent team ( B- ). We are still at A. It is difficult to move up when you get in this rarified air.. Another 4 wins and we will be elite. On to BGSU. This is a C- team Not a cupcake. Think SEMO. A team we can beat handily but if we let up they will be right there with us. I think once we get the lead BGSU will start to press . It should be good practice for the VCU game. I think we will have a lot of free throw chances too...we need to keep making those FT Bottomline ...we make our free throws and handle the press when it pops up and we should be fine.

Yeah but can the NKOTB sing stats?

VCU should have won this game but Fla St is no slouch...A-...a tourney team at this time..I hope no one uses the U word (upset) UMass did what they were supposed to do ...won by 6 ...favored by 8 A nice win by Dayton beating G Tech. by 10...GT favored by 1 playing at home. Even Duq won over Albany by 11 ...Duq favored by 5 So only VCU did not take care of biz...lending to a point I made in another thread that even though they are a very good team that will probably make the tourney it will be difficult for them to sustain a high level of play all season. All in all a good couple of days for the A-10

In the original post in this thread , I mentioned the OR flaw....vulnerability to 3 point D. The words I used above were...."if we bother them from the outside we not only win but beat the spread handily.....If we bother them they will only make two 3 pointers" We bothered them and guess how many 3pt shots they made...2.....18% from the 3 It is always sweet when the game plan works out.. I relish the correct amount of 3's more than getting close on the spread. While some naysayers hand wring over these early games, we are doing just what we need to be doing. I use the spreads and grade points as a way to check our progress. I would say we are right on target for a fine season.

Wisc and VCU are both A+ teams right now....The Bills are an A team. By Dec 2 the Bills have a chance also to be an elite team ( A+) Their mantra needs to be....Just win the next game.

The VCU game away could also turn out to be the most difficult game but it is a long way off (March)...If we were playing VCU away within the next week I might give that game the edge over Wisc on a neutral site. But I think it will be difficult for VCU to stay at that high level especially after we beat them here first in Feb. On a neutral site playing today....Wisc by 1 over VCU

N Dak (D+) = Duq Wisc beats them by 18 ....favored by 21....This turns out the way it is supposed to.... Even though Wich St is ranked higher in the polls than Wisc.....The Badgers will be our toughest game of the season.

I had Dayton and Ga Tech as pretty much similar ( B ). But Tech should have won with home court advantage. A nice win for the Flyers. I have Wich St by 5.....a loss to Tulsa would be a major blow...you might say it would be a "shocker".

We are like the Rodney Dangerfield of CBB....We don't get no respect. I would have titled this thread....treading water. We started the season unranked and in the low 30's. After a 3-0 start our numbers are about the same. We have played a C-, F, & C teams for about a D average at or a little above the spreads. It is tough to move up with those stats. That SIU-E game was a real killer. After we whupped them, our numbers actually weakened because they were so bad. And even though are numbers are holding steady through the first 3 games, a few teams have slipped ahead of us. ...not because they are better but because there schedules are more difficult. The good news is the schedule is improving starting with the next game. Oral is a B- team. A win at or above the spread will start our upward climb. As others have pointed out, we have 2 big games which could move us up real fast.....Wisconsin and Wichita St. Most polls list WSU as a higher ranked team but I think the Badgers are the better team. In addition the fact that we are playing Wisc. away will make it even more difficult. I am expecting Wisc to be favored over the Bills....but it will be a very close and winnable game for SLU. Further good news is there are a lot of teams bunched right in front of us. If we can remain undefeated on Dec 2, we will make great strides in the polls as well as having some impressive wins on the resume. As far as I am concerned the season starts Thur. If the Bills come out fired up like a season opener(and also play some 3pt D) we will not only take the game but build some momentum going into the upcoming big games. I concur with the above posters.....just win the next one.

First of all, it looks like the tweaks I made to the system over the summer are paying off. Having a good Nov which is usually the weakest month for predictions. ...of course Nov isn't over yet. Spreads are working out...for the gamblers it allows them to cover and for the Drew Carey/Price is Right crowd...closest without going over. Nice win over SIU-C. It helped our numbers back to where they were before SIU-E. We suffered a little damage after SIU-E even though we covered the spread because SIU-E was just so weak....but no harm now. On to the next game.... Oral is a B- team. So this is pretty good team. Better than the Salukis.....best so far this year. But this team is very beatable providing we take advantage of their flaw. This is a 3 pt shooting team. They are shooting 37.5%...not bad ...above average. But the numbers don't tell the whole story. In the first 2 games OR shot 2-17 ( 12%). Yesterday, they shot 67% (10-15). What is the flaw?? If you defend the 3 they get rattled...can't take or make the shot. Even if you force them to take a step forward (into a 2pt) that would help. This would have been a game RM would have loved to prepare for. He loved to defend the 3....with this team he would have devised a plan to harass them every way possible from the outside. Bottomline....if we bother them from the outside, we not only win but beat the spread handily. If we leave them alone, we could be in trouble. I think if we can hold them to 8 3pt FGA . .and if we bother them ,... I think they would only make 2 three pointers.. If you start to see alot of 3 point shots (say 8 at halftime) or percentages pushing above 40 on the 3 then we are in for trouble. I fully expect this team to beat the spread because afterall this is an RM team. They know about defending the 3.

Just a point of information.... While DePaul is a cellar dweller in the BE they are not terrible (see SIU-E for terrible). DeP is a C+ team similar to Rh Island and better than Duq and Fordham. They look terrible because everyone else in their league is so much better. In the world outside of the BE they would be an OK team. The good news is that the new BE is weaker than the old BE so DeP doesn't have as far to go to catch up.