The Wiz

A little late for a preseason forecast...so this will be a beginning of the season forecast. I have been busy upgrading my computer program. Using some new and modified algorithms. ....also I have added some additional data sources. I have back tested the system on a number of games from last season. The results seem to be spreads that are a little close to the actual results and better forecasting outcomes. This year with very little data, I have back tested the Bills opening game....If you remember , I had a spread of 18. We won by 12 which isn't bad for a first game. I pointed out in the post game comments that we could have easily hit 18pts and more. So I ran the same data with the new system yesterday and the back test showed a spread of 13. I also ran the FAU/ Loy-C pregame . Vegas had a 5-6 pt spread...FAU won by 13...The new program came up with FAU by 9. In any case the new " Not ready for prime time" program will makes its game spread debut for the Ill St. game sometime in the next 24 hours.... Stay tuned. Before we get started , let me put in a paragraph for the newbies , who don't know what I do... This is the first of 2 forecasts....the preseason and pre conference . This preseason prediction is based on a Bayesian model....the next one on real data. I use a letter grade system which groups similar teams together. As the season starts to unfold, I use the first 8 games to meld the Bayesian model with the real data model. As I gradually integrate the real data with the forecasting tool I eventually drop the Bayesian model (after the SIU-C game on Dec 2). As the season goes on and I have more data , I become more accurate ( at least that is the way it is suppose to work). A couple of notes here...SIU-C was the 8th game last year too, one day later on Dec 3rd. SIU-C is the 8th game because Linmo doesn't figure into the data set. I only do D1 games. Also, @billikenbillI will try not to use the word Bayesian again this year after this post. Let's start with the A-10 forecast...which will include info from the computer upgrade.... 1. VCU................B+ 2. SLU................B 3. Day.................B 4. Ford................B 5. Dav..................B- 6. Duq.................B- 7. Rich................B- 8. GM................C+ 9. St. J...............C+ 10. GW................C 11 St. B..............C 12. UMass..........C 13. Loy_C...........C- 14 LaS...............D+ 15 RI..................D Season record Best Case......25-6 Worst case.....18-13 Most probable....22-9 So what does this mean? Most likely the A10 is a 1 bid league with a 40% chance for a 2nd bid. VCU is in the best spot right now and they only have a fair chance to make it. SLU, Day and For all have a lesser chance . And Dav , Duq and Rich are long shots. In order for the Bills to be on target for a postseason bid they need to move up to B+ by the first of the year. It is possible, as we have a soft schedule with some bumps in the road. If we can navigate those bumps...at least a split...SIU, Drake NC St and maybe Wich St. in the OOC and in conference with Day and VCU we will be in a good position. I spoke with a bookie in Vegas and his take from the Strip on the A10 was that after the Day injury it is a 3 team race...SLU, Day and VCU. The team that is the hungriest will take the prize. I think if we can pick up at least one of the last 2 players pending we have as good a shot as anyone. The computer right now is assuming we don't get anymore players. Bottom line...A lot of doom and gloom coming into this season. But the fact of the matter is that the A10 is weaker this year. Last year there were no Ds or Fs in the league... this year the Ds are back. There are always some A teams in the A10 ....not this year. What there is though is parity...a whole lot of parity. If we can stay relatively healthy and add at least 1 more player and continue to play high energy ball and extend our low TO rate ... We can separate ourselves from the pack. Things could be better than you think. We win because we play together as a team.....John Havlicek

A good show and showing by the Bills.... The good... 4 players in double figures...2 more with 9 10 players scored SVB led the team in rebs with 9 in 21min Thames looks like he could be the next up and coming player...4-5 FG + 3 reb in 14 min and looked good doing it. Jimerson being Jimerson...5-6 from the arc Flashes of brilliance...Curcic 3-5 and an unbelievable behind the back pinpoint pass from near the top of the key to right under the basket ...unfortunately, the shot rolled off the rim....Also Evans IV had a moment in the sun too...2-3 from the field. Sincere was top scorer with 20...9-12FG Meadows joined the fun ...13 pts Hargrove ...only 19 min but put in 9pts and 2 rebs Dalger had the most min...27...12pts...6 rebs Another good night on TOs...Bills 12 vs 20 for Linmo...8 differential is a great number Last but not least a good slash...62/50/ 64 Concerns......,.. Parker was ejected from the game...Could be disciplinary action as in missing the ISU game...SLU will appeal...reported by Rammer...stupid call by ref ...Parker accidentally bumped the Linmo player and the ref hit him with a tech... when he tried to explain it, he hit him with another T and an ejection. Hughes only 7 min ...no points...left injured ...said he was ok after the game...sat out as a precautionary measure... Rebounding...this really isn't a concern...more of a freak stat...The Bills were out rebounded 42-39....Bills didn't have much to reb because of outstanding shooting and Linmo had a ton to reb with a triple F slash....32/32/59....btw nice D for the Bills Bottom line...A good warmup for the season but most important...Free Shake Shake for all attending fans.

Loy-C vs #10 FAU I think FAU is a bit over rated at 10....but they do make The Wiz Top 25 coming in at #24...so yes they are a very good team ...and the computer does pick FAU to win so no big surprises. BUT the computer is picking FAU to win by 5...with a foot note of a possible upset. Even playing in Chicago, FAU should be able to beat an average (C-) team by more than 5. Loy-C is projecting as a PIG team right now in the A-10. Again it is early in the season and only 1 game played so far...but even a close loss for the Ramblers would be an accomplishment.

No spread on this game. My computer only does D1 games. Missing in Action...usually listed as injury report but I have needed to broaden this category... 11/7....Zhang......Ques...Knee strain...he has had this for awhile...it is uncertain if he will see playing time in this game...there have been reports that this may also be an eligibility issue but the official line is... injury...I go with the injury report as the other players with eligibility issues played in the practice game and Zhang did not. 11/5...Ezewiro and Magassa...out indefinitely...eligibility issues...both awaiting eligibility waivers Van Bussel...while he is good to go...played 3 min last game...he is probably not yet in game shape...coming off a long injury...hopefully he will get some additional minutes tonight.

Just a couple of points here.... My model has nothing to do with betting lines...the computer is trying to pick the winner ...it doesn't adjust for how the betting is going. At the beginning of the season it is using a Bayesian model (predictive) as it accumulates data during the 1st 8 games of the season. Using algorithms, it runs 2000 simulations of each game and then combines them into a single point spread. In my original opening post above, I mentioned the computer thought the SOIN game was going to be a cross between the Ky Wes and Berea games...ie the spread falling between 10 and 38pts (90%). The computer said it saw similarities between Ky Wes and the SOIN team...a bigger less athletic, less skilled team than the Bills....but nonetheless still a SIZE-able challenge. I ran the game again this morning and included last night's data....The result shows the Bills winning by 22 in a second SION game. What does this mean? This means the computer thinks we can do better...that there is more upside to the team...that some of those easy shots will fall. My own take is ...while there was a correlation to the fall off of play and Hargrove leaving the game , I detected a bit of fatigue in the final quarter...play slowed...passes weren't as crisp...not much play making ...defense was less. As the season progresses , I think we will build up our stamina so that we will be able to go hard for 40 min. and that will be a good thing as other teams will fade if we go at them hard. Overall, a good first effort.

A lot to like in this game.... First for the naysayers..."Yeah but you beat SOIN" ....Yes, we were the better team...but we beat a team that had a significant height advantage...Key stat ...we out rebounded them ...pulled down 45...a great number against any team much less a taller team More naysaying..."Yeah but you missed the spread" ... I thought the computer did a good job with the spread...since it had no data to work with and both teams were pretty much made up of new players...With 6:31 left in the game, Hargrove sunk a FT which gave the Bills a 19 pt lead...a few seconds later he was out of the game with an injury....He had carried the team for nearly 3 and a half quarters and then was gone and the Bills faded. I am sure, had he finished the game we have not only scored 6 more pts to make the spread BUT more importantly it would have been Shake Shack Cheeseburgers for everyone. Enough of the naysayers...Let's get to the good stuff SOIN killer...that would be Hargrove ..a BIG double double...27 pts...15 rebs ...TJs 27 pts was the most in an opener since Marquis Perry scored 27 in 2001 against not USI but SIU ...and this is why SOIN is used by the sports books instead of USI.....East Coast bookies prefer SIND...as your grammar teacher would say...Don't SOIN your SIND Decent 3P shooting...42.9% TOs...this has been one of my pet peeves the last couple of seasons...we have done a poor job of protecting the ball...Not tonight ...6......10-11 is good for a grade of A...The Bills far exceeded...Cutting down TOs would go along way toward having a good season. But it was not all rainbows and sunshine...ah...a section for the naysayers...I prefer to call this an area where we will get better as the season progresses Shooting....As mentioned above the 3P shooting was good...but when you look at the slash you will see...36.4/42.9/ 64.3....while the FT and FG% looks weak ...it doesn't tell the whole story...2 more FTs and we are at a C level...the real weakness in this line is 2P shooting....33.3%...short stuff...bunnies and layups...shooting just an average line we would have had 9 more FGs.. throw in 2 more FTs and you have 20 more pts...forget about the 18pt spread...we should have won this game by 32pts...we need to do a better job of finishing around the basket AND we will. This is something new teams do in a first game. We will not be anywhere near 33.3% from 2P land at the end of the season. Bottom line...naysayers stop reading here.....there is hope because there is more potential upside....And if we can add at least 2 more bigs soon....stay tuned

I think the fact that Zhang is listed on the injury report is a sign that he is on the roster. Teams don't list players on the injury report if they are not on the roster.

Also , I failed to mention in the original post that Zhang is listed as questionable for tomorrow's game with a knee strain... That report dated Oct 31st said that it was uncertain whether he will play against SOIN. It would be nice if he could get a few minutes under his belt.

I saw SVB play some decent minutes in the practice game. He guarded Eze...a tougher job than he will have tomorrow...I don't think it matters whether he starts or not. He just needs to get some minutes and contribute.

Welcome to another season of Bills BBall. I call this the box of chocolates season. Or to paraphrase Forest Gump....This Bills basketball season is like a box of chocolates ...you never know what you're going to get. We start the season and the roster is not yet set. Hopefully this cloud will lift shortly. In the mean time, the strategy will be to take things 1 game at a time....Which brings us to Southern Ind. Southern Indiana hereafter know as SOIN (SIU is taken...and the gambling services didn't like SIN) is also a mystery team. But as you can see by the forecasted spread this should be a solvable mystery. SOIN returns only 7 players from last year...none starters. Only 1 freshman and no really strong players. Hernandez can shoot from the arc but as long as he is guarded he shouldn't have a big night. Concerns...they do have some big men...C..6'8' and 2 Fwds 6'10". We struggled a bit against Ky Wes because of a height disadvantage. Hopefully, the addition of SVB will help. Bottom line...The computer sees this game as a cross between Ky Wes and Berea...And like fine chocolate....this game should melt into a win for the Bills.

And finally an article from 6 months ago which not only explains how this works but predicted the mess we are in now and why it will be difficult to fix. https://theathletic.com/4450771/2023/04/26/college-basketball-transfers-ncaa-waiver/

Here is an article which shows the "caring and compassion" of the NCAA.... "you can always count on them to do the right thing" The NCAA is under heavy pressure right now...WV governor complaining and Ohio Atty Gen threatening anti trust suit plus many others from many different schools...In the article above it says 2nd transfer waiver changes may come next year....they may cave earlier than that if the legal system puts the squeeze on them. https://www.si.com/college/2023/10/27/jaylon-tysons-texas-tech-case-ncaa-crackdown-on-second-time-transfers

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/ncaa-will-consider-modifications-to-transfer-rules-amid-heavy-criticism-directed-at-waiver-process/

My take on this game....A big difference from last Friday's open practice....notably the subtraction of Eze, SvB and Magassa.... Not just the missing production of the players who didn't play but some production was lost by players who played in the open practice as they were not able to max out without an inside presence. I ran a couple of simulations...not a lot of data at this point but some interesting results...... First...the Bills open practice squad from last Fri beats the Bills team on the floor that played KWU by 9..... Second....The Bills open practice squad from last Fri beats KWU by 16. Again, the major difference...Eze, SvB and Magassa. Also, the returning players...GJ, SP, LH and THJ all had similar games to last Fri. GJ struggling a little from the field but still getting his pts....SP and LH making shots and THJ playing his game with some decent offense and trying as best he could to fight off the big boys in both games. Bottom line... What kind of season will it be? Depends on who shows up once the season starts.

I think it is all of the above.....If he can stay healthy he will get better. Remember those times where got pushed around under the basket...that won't happen if Ezewiro and van Bussel are playing.

Here is the way I saw it... This was not a game simulation ...this was a real game. ...3 refs...score keeping...no stops in play for learning moments. The game was in the Coach RM gym...crowd of about 100 There were 3 periods...each was 12 minutes... Major take away....Extremely intense...more so then some of our past regular games....players diving...players being slammed to the floor...game was called just under 3 min left in the 3rd period due to cramping....intensity plus warm environment= cramping. Remember, each team had 8 players...so while there was only 33 min....each player played a lot. I mentioned to one of the players that I liked the intensity...he said every practice is like that...these are players that are hungry....No matter what happens this year ...it shouldn't be boring. Ball movement was quick...players were quick...no standing around or walking the ball around...137 pts in just 33min....and it was not because there was no defense. Game observations... Got off to a slow start as neither team could hit a bucket but things started to heat up as the game progressed. Hughes was hitting....and Parker started heating after the 1st period. Ezewiro is a force...He reminds me of French only bigger...couple of inches and 20lbs. BUT with 1 big difference...He can hit the long ball. Not freak shots...he can shoot from the outside. I asked him after the game how things are going and he said the NCAA is reviewing his case now and he hopes to have an answer by next week. Keep your fingers crossed ...he is a difference maker. TJ had a fine game...He drew the unlucky card of having to defend Ezewiro early on and did a nice job...no small accomplishment....that bodes well if he will be playing 4/5. A promising player who showed well was Magassa...had good moves to the basket and finished. van Bussel another big boy...when he went up against Ezewiro ...it was clash of the Titans. Meadows, Dalger , and Medley will be players...they looked good with more upside to come as the team starts to meld. Finally Jimerson was Jimerson...not his best shooting night but he got his points with cuts to the basket. Bottom line...The team has a lot of potential....and a lot of skill and athleticism. If they can keep TOs down and make their shots they will compete. Again, this will be a fun team to watch...HUNGRY and INTENSE.

Or maybe Zhang is only 6'10"

In addition to the above, he has been trending up in shooting ...FG%, 2P%, 3P%....only his FT shooting was down a little last year and even then he missed being an A+ by only 1 shot. Two years ago Meadows was 16th ITN in FT% with a 91%. An elite FT shooter is definitely a difference maker in a close game with time running out. All signs point to him being a player.

Just catching up for the summer. Not much has happened since I last checked in. However, Meadows was an interesting pickup. Here is my take.... His most recent season..... 45.7 /35.9 / 77.8 B+ / B+ / A Not bad...I see him as a difference maker... BUT ...the computer differs with me a bit....the computer sees Meadows as a potential difference maker. The computer's reasoning is... it isn't a full sample size. Here is the sample size percentage...80/ 92 / 98...where 100% = a full sample size. So being the human here, I have the right to tweak the numbers...If Meadows makes 1 more FT out of 63 and 2 more 3s out of 64....the sample size changes to 82/100/100 pretty close to full and definitely meaningful sample.....the slash line grade changes to A / A+ / A+...add in a respectable 2-1 Ast/TO ratio and a few rebounds and he is a difference maker. So who is correct?.. the computer or The Wiz....Well since the computer is artificial intelligence (emphasis on artificial) and will never "see the kids play" I will go with myself. Will Meadows be a difference maker?...Check back on Xmas eve and if he is listed as a reindeer (top 6 in mpg) on the the Xmas poem... then he will be a difference maker.

https://www.on3.com/college/west-virginia-mountaineers/news/west-virginia-players-allowed-extra-time-to-enter-transfer-portal-due-to-bob-huggins-resignation/ An update on the WV situation

Here is some additional information from the NCAA on the topic.... https://www.si.com/college/2023/06/14/ncaa-president-nil-collective-tax-deductible-donations-irs-ruling

The point of the post is ...these are the types of players that SLU should be looking at. In the case of Dandridge , he was rated 3rd best of the remaining PF. He was slightly downgraded due to injury plagued season otherwise he would be #1 on the remaining PFs list. This shows that SLU is looking in the right places.

I guess the key word in my post was "serious" situations. The fight during the game that Pruitt was involved in led to a 1 game suspension. While certainly not something which should be condoned, it didn't rise to the level of some players I didn't put on the list (for rape , robbery and burglary) Btw, Pruitt's 21 points and 9 rebs was one of the reasons the Bills lost by 2 to SIU-e.

You are correct ...I didn't update the database....with that in mind , here is the updated list of top 2 players by position as of today. Top 2 players at each position still available in the portal...To get on my list you need to have good scouting reports, be able to shoot well, be truly available (some that are available are not taking any new suitors at this point) and finally not coming off any serious "situations". Center Jordan Brown.....6'11....Louisiana Alexis Yetna.......6'8......Seton Hall PG Ronald Politte...6'2......Geo Mason Jalen Carey......6'3.......RI SG Kruz Perrott-Hunt...6-3...S. Dak Anthony Roy.....6-5.....N Mex St CG A J Plitzuwelt....6-2......S Dak Billy Smith.........6-7......Mia-OH PF Deejuan Pruitt...6-8....SIU-e Carlos Curry......6-11...Ga Southern SF Sincere Malone.....6-8...EIU Myron Gardner.....6-6....Ark-LR

Top 2 players at each position still available in the portal...To get on my list you need to have good scouting reports, be able to shoot well, be truly available (some that are available are not taking any new suitors at this point) and finally not coming off any serious "situations". Center Jordan Brown.....6'11....Louisiana Alexis Yetna.......6'8......Seton Hall PG CJ Fulton..........6'2.......Lafayette Ronald Politte...6'2......Geo Mason SG Kruz Perrott-Hunt...6-3...S. Dak Anthony Roy.....6-5.....N Mex St CG A J Plitzuwelt....6-2......S Dak Kinyon Hodges...6-2...EIU PF Jay Pal...............6-9...Campbell Alimamy Koroma...6-8....Cal Poly SF Nigel Burris...........6-6....Idaho Sincere Malone.....6-8...EIU