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RI over the Bills by 9


The Wiz

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The win over Rich was no small feat. But in the end they are a C- team with a weak defense.  Just the same the Spiders despite their record are not a cream puff team and this was a decent win,  especially given that a lot of factors were working against the Bills.  As I mentioned in the Rich thread wrap up, the emergence of Foreman as a contributor in both productivity and minutes is a significant factor that bodes well for the Bills in the future. Once Goodwin returns their is the possibility our GPA could start to climb.  We currently remain at C.

The competition steps up with the arrival of RI. They bring an A- team to the Fetz...the class of the A-10.  Despite being a heavy favorite (some have suggested the spread should be bigger )  RI is beatable. How can that be?  First let's take a look at the report card....

................SLU..................OFF....................RI.................................................SLU....................DEF.................RI

PPG...........F- .............................................B-..................................................A- ............................................B+

FG%..........F................................................B-...................................................C+............................................D

3P%..........F................................................B- ...................................................D+............................................B+

FT%..........F+..............................................C-.......................................................................................................

Reb...........D+..............................................D......................................................B............................................B-

Top Performers in the nation

Stls........Goodwin............32nd

Blks.........French..............62nd

FG%........Berry...................71st (59.3%)

Asst.........Dowtin................75th 

Stls..........Robinson..............10th.

 

One good trend that is continuing is 3P%...5th consecutive game at 36.4% or higher.....for us to still be at F shows how deeply we were buried. For the last 3 weeks we have been shooting at  a B level....better than RI

Bottom line... This will not be easy but it can be done....44/35/ 71...in the last game I said we needed to make 2 of 3 on the slash...this game we need all three.  RI has very good 3pt defense ...but inside the arc,  not so good....we need to finish ....bunnies and layups....make them.  Important to dominate the boards( +7)  They have a wide body...Berry (he is the 59.3% shooter)...he is a stuffer ...stop him. There 2 best players are Terrell and Matthews....hold them to 13 and 10 pts.  Robinson ( their stealer) is questionable for the game (bad toe) ...game time decision.  If he plays , who ever brings the ball up against him will have to protect it. ...Win the TO battle....We have had a number of games with 1 good half ...to win this game , we need 2 good halves.

This won't be easy...Can we do it ? Yes...Do we need the greatest game ever?...No...We need a good AND consistent game to win.

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On 1/7/2018 at 9:11 PM, wgstl said:

I would do anything to just lose by 9 to Rhode Island

And there you go....What you should have said was....I would do anything if the Bills could beat RI....and they almost pulled it off.

During the pregame tonight as I was visiting with the regulars in our section.... a guy who was seating in front of us was eavesdropping on my conversation and interrupted and said..."no way the Bills lose by 9 ...it will be triple that....I asked him if he wanted to give me 27 pts...no answer. I tried to find him after the game but he had slipped out.

Well let;s see what really happened tonight.  This was the 2nd game in a row I was 2 pts off the spread. I consider being within 3 pts a hit. Even though I am  rounding into shape data wise, I will need 1 more game to add/adjust our "new player" (Foreman) into the stats. Having 1 more makes such a difference in so many ways. And while Foreman didn't start, he still picked up 23 min...13pts...4 reb and a blk.

Let's look at the bottom line from the original post.....

"  Bottom line... This will not be easy but it can be done....44/35/ 71...in the last game I said we needed to make 2 of 3 on the slash...this game we need all three.  RI has very good 3pt defense ...but inside the arc,  not so good....we need to finish ....bunnies and layups....make them.  Important to dominate the boards( +7)  They have a wide body...Berry (he is the 59.3% shooter)...he is a stuffer ...stop him. There 2 best players are Terrell and Matthews....hold them to 13 and 10 pts.  Robinson ( their stealer) is questionable for the game (bad toe) ...game time decision.  If he plays , who ever brings the ball up against him will have to protect it. ...Win the TO battle....We have had a number of games with 1 good half ...to win this game , we need 2 good halves.

This won't be easy...Can we do it ? Yes...Do we need the greatest game ever?...No...We need a good AND consistent game to win.  "

So here it is in a nutshell...the slash I said we needed to do all 3 to win....44 /35 / 71...actual slash  42/ 11 / 80...First amazing FT shooting...2nd RI has great 3 pt D ..If you look at the report card above  you will see RI 3P% at B+...but even so ....you've got to do better than 11....we are coming off a 5 game streak of 36.4 or better.  In order to make the 35% slash figure  we need 3 more made 3s which in turn would have given us more than 44 FG%  ..which would have given us the whole projected slash...which would have given us 9 more points...and finally would have given us the game. We did a pretty good job stopping them from the outside ...not so much from the inside ...so we got that turned backwards...I will give that a wash...another wash was bunnies and layups...better ..but still room for improvement.  I wanted rebounds at +7...we finished at +6...close enough...pass...Terrell and Matthews...Hold them to 13 and 10 pts...yet another  wash as we in fact do hold Matthews to 10 but let Terrell score 20....Robinson the stealer was a pass...as we held him to no steals...good job.  Berry (wide body) stop him....fail.   TOs was the other hole in our game...17 TOs ..way to many (cost us 12 pts & the game) If we had matched their 11...we win.

Overall a lot to like in this game....Remember this is the best team in the A-10 and we battled them even for about 59 min....As I said earlier , I am optimistic now that we have an extra player...it will make a huge difference. We just need to get back to where we were in the last 5 games ...low TOs and at least 36.4 % from the arc.

You gotta love this team's heart.

 

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