How good next year?

[AnkielBreakers]

Here is some random food for thought. I pulled these numbers from the last years stats, and I cannot figure out how to post as a table (if anyone knows, post below and I will fix), so people will have to line things up themselves. JB's and KM's are from their last years playing.

Player|| Points (my guess for next year)|| Minutes (my guess for next year)|| Last Years Points Per Minute Average|| Carried (Points per minutes considering minutes listed)

KM|| 15|| 30|| 0.48|| 14.54

MM|| 7|| 20|| 0.35|| 7.10

JJ|| 6|| 18|| 0.31|| 5.60

KC|| 5|| 20|| 0.27|| 5.33

JB|| 8|| 20|| 0.38|| 7.57

DE|| 10|| 27|| 0.36|| 9.85

BC|| 6|| 15|| 0.41|| 6.10

RL|| 8|| 20|| 0.38|| 7.66

CR|| 4|| 15|| 0.24|| 3.63

CE|| 5|| 15|| 0.32|| 4.80

Total|| 74|| 200|| 72.18

Previous Years

2010/11 63 (points for) 62.4 (points against)

2009/10 63.4 (points for)60.2 (points against)

Potential difference (in points for and points against considering that for is 74, and against is 62.4) btw this year and next year: 11 points

Assuming that we win ties, which I am going to do as an optimist, and that Jake Barnett is not a defensive liability (and is relatively as effective on offense as he was at Toledo), then simply comparing this point differential to our schedule from last year, we would have had 27 wins and 4 losses (if we lose ties it is 25 wins and 6 losses). Either way, this could lead to a tournament run, which is better than I previously thought (I thought we would get 23-24 wins).

Some interesting tidbits, KC's numbers per minute are second lowest on the team. He certainly is an important player, just an observation. Also, RL's points per minute are surprisingly high, and he is close to BC on that front.

Thoughts?

[AnkielBreakers]

Let me know if these numbers are right, I threw them together pretty quickly.

[billiken_roy]

Here is some random food for thought. I pulled these numbers from the last years stats, and I cannot figure out how to post as a table (if anyone knows, post below and I will fix), so people will have to line things up themselves. JB's and KM's are from their last years playing.

Player|| Points (my guess for next year)|| Minutes (my guess for next year)|| Last Years Points Per Minute Average|| Carried (Points per minutes considering minutes listed)

KM|| 15|| 30|| 0.48|| 14.54

MM|| 7|| 20|| 0.35|| 7.10

JJ|| 6|| 18|| 0.31|| 5.60

KC|| 5|| 20|| 0.27|| 5.33

JB|| 8|| 20|| 0.38|| 7.57

DE|| 10|| 27|| 0.36|| 9.85

BC|| 6|| 15|| 0.41|| 6.10

RL|| 8|| 20|| 0.38|| 7.66

CR|| 4|| 15|| 0.24|| 3.63

CE|| 5|| 15|| 0.32|| 4.80

Total|| 74|| 200|| 72.18

Previous Years

2010/11 63 (points for) 62.4 (points against)

2009/10 63.4 (points for)60.2 (points against)

Potential difference (in points for and points against considering that for is 74, and against is 62.4) btw this year and next year: 11 points

Assuming that we win ties, which I am going to do as an optimist, and that Jake Barnett is not a defensive liability (and is relatively as effective on offense as he was at Toledo), then simply comparing this point differential to our schedule from last year, we would have had 27 wins and 4 losses (if we lose ties it is 25 wins and 6 losses). Either way, this could lead to a tournament run, which is better than I previously thought (I thought we would get 23-24 wins).

Some interesting tidbits, KC's numbers per minute are second lowest on the team. He certainly is an important player, just an observation. Also, RL's points per minute are surprisingly high, and he is close to BC on that front.

Thoughts?

so just so i understand, you are assuming everyone scores as they did last year, plus you are adding barnett and mitchell's most recent year's ppm in as well? i.e. mitchell and barnett wont take points away from our returning players? i dont think that is how it will work.

[slufan13]

so just so i understand, you are assuming everyone scores as they did last year, plus you are adding barnett and mitchell's most recent year's ppm in as well? i.e. mitchell and barnett wont take points away from our returning players? i dont think that is how it will work.

i agree with what you're saying, but KM will also set up points for others.

[Henry]

so just so i understand, you are assuming everyone scores as they did last year, plus you are adding barnett and mitchell's most recent year's ppm in as well? i.e. mitchell and barnett wont take points away from our returning players? i dont think that is how it will work.

Roy-

Lets refrain from being too harsh on Ankielbreaker's attempt to statistically prove we will be better next year. I thought it was a fantastic attempt but the assumptions made probably aren't all correct and therefore the hypothesis may be flawed.

But I like the thinking! Well Done.

Patrick

[jbizzle09]

Here is some random food for thought. I pulled these numbers from the last years stats, and I cannot figure out how to post as a table (if anyone knows, post below and I will fix), so people will have to line things up themselves. JB's and KM's are from their last years playing.

Player|| Points (my guess for next year)|| Minutes (my guess for next year)|| Last Years Points Per Minute Average|| Carried (Points per minutes considering minutes listed)

KM|| 15|| 30|| 0.48|| 14.54

MM|| 7|| 20|| 0.35|| 7.10

JJ|| 6|| 18|| 0.31|| 5.60

KC|| 5|| 20|| 0.27|| 5.33

JB|| 8|| 20|| 0.38|| 7.57

DE|| 10|| 27|| 0.36|| 9.85

BC|| 6|| 15|| 0.41|| 6.10

RL|| 8|| 20|| 0.38|| 7.66

CR|| 4|| 15|| 0.24|| 3.63

CE|| 5|| 15|| 0.32|| 4.80

Total|| 74|| 200|| 72.18

Previous Years

2010/11 63 (points for) 62.4 (points against)

2009/10 63.4 (points for)60.2 (points against)

Potential difference (in points for and points against considering that for is 74, and against is 62.4) btw this year and next year: 11 points

Assuming that we win ties, which I am going to do as an optimist, and that Jake Barnett is not a defensive liability (and is relatively as effective on offense as he was at Toledo), then simply comparing this point differential to our schedule from last year, we would have had 27 wins and 4 losses (if we lose ties it is 25 wins and 6 losses). Either way, this could lead to a tournament run, which is better than I previously thought (I thought we would get 23-24 wins).

Some interesting tidbits, KC's numbers per minute are second lowest on the team. He certainly is an important player, just an observation. Also, RL's points per minute are surprisingly high, and he is close to BC on that front.

Thoughts?

I think there are too many factors that you are not looking at. It would be nice if it were just this simple, but it just isn't. We cannot assume that the scoring rates will remain the same. Also, I just don't think the minutes will be this evenly distributed. I just don't see 10 players averaging at least 15 minutes a game. There will probably be 1-3 players on this list that will average 10 or fewer a game.

Now, I do think that scoring will be higher than the previous season. It just has to be, especially with KM and JB coming in. However, if you score at a higher rate, you will probably allow more points on the defensive end due to the quicker pace of the game. Thus, we can't make the assumption that the points allowed on the defensive end will stay the same. I would love to say that we will go 27-4 next season based on your analysis, but it just isn't that simple.

[AnkielBreakers]

so just so i understand, you are assuming everyone scores as they did last year, plus you are adding barnett and mitchell's most recent year's ppm in as well? i.e. mitchell and barnett wont take points away from our returning players? i dont think that is how it will work.

Well, oh course it will not be exactly the same. The numbers are definitely worth looking at though. What you can glean from this is that our offensive point totals are going to increase more than anyone really thinks. It is easy to sit back and say that MM and JJ are roughly equivalent to KM, but until you note how much more efficient he was at scoring, you can't appreciate how much he can change our games. What I will do if I get time, is add in the amount of shots take by each player, then normalize them, and add in the players shooting percentage. This should give a more accurate view of what to expect next year.

[jbizzle09]

Well, oh course it will not be exactly the same. The numbers are definitely worth looking at though. What you can glean from this is that our offensive point totals are going to increase more than anyone really thinks. It is easy to sit back and say that MM and JJ are roughly equivalent to KM, but until you note how much more efficient he was at scoring, you can't appreciate how much he can change our games. What I will do if I get time, is add in the amount of shots take by each player, then normalize them, and add in the players shooting percentage. This should give a more accurate view of what to expect next year.

Is there anyone on this board who thinks this? Personally, I think both have the potential to maybe be on KM's level, but in no way am I going to sit back and say that I think either are equivalent at this stage.