kwyjibo Posted March 5, 2007 Share Posted March 5, 2007 I used Bill James' log 5 method (http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/playoff2002.htm) to calculate the chance each team has to win the A-10 tournament. For the yardstick to compare the teams I used Pomeroy's Relative Efficiency measure and simple win percentage. For the record there are other ways to evaluate the relative strengths between teams and they would give different results. I used the two measures I used for mathematical reasons (the log5 method needs a scale between 0 and 1 that many other indexes do not use). I did not use RPI because it really is not a measure designed to compare two teams (unlike nearly all "power indexes" and ranking systems). http://www.nodimension.com/A10log5AC07.jpg I played around with this some more and modified Pomeroy's efficiency measure and got the Bills up to a 4% chance. I think 25-1 odds sounds about right ("objectively"). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimbofive Posted March 5, 2007 Share Posted March 5, 2007 "So, you're saying... there's a chance." -Lloyd Christmas Here's to asking the B-ball gods for a little schoolboy love, if you get the reference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box and Won Posted March 5, 2007 Share Posted March 5, 2007 Atlantic City: Where the beer flows like wine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milwaukee Billiken Posted March 5, 2007 Share Posted March 5, 2007 And the beautiful women instinctively flock like the salmon of Capistrano. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimbofive Posted March 5, 2007 Share Posted March 5, 2007 Hey, those people want a ride to the A-10 tourney... PICK 'EM UP!!! Jamall: Where'd you guys get the new recruits??? Brad: Oh, I sold a few things, a few baseball cards, some Greek guy... (cough) JJ. Jamall: JJ!?!? Brad, JJ didn't even have a head!!! Brad: Jamall, I took CARE of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box and Won Posted March 5, 2007 Share Posted March 5, 2007 Pretty JJ...Pretty JJ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLUDrew Posted March 5, 2007 Share Posted March 5, 2007 Our power forwards' heads are falling off!!! I couldn't resist Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimbofive Posted March 6, 2007 Share Posted March 6, 2007 This whole thing has me losing my $h!t at work. Just thinking about JJ walking around campus with his head duct-taped on, looking like one of those African women with all the gold rings around their necks... wahahahaha Sorry for hijacking your post, kwyjibo, that was some very astute, albeit disheartening, analysis... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bonwich Posted March 6, 2007 Share Posted March 6, 2007 I don't suppose there's any way our stats geek could retrospectively plot odds using the same technique for the Miracle in Memphis? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box and Won Posted March 6, 2007 Share Posted March 6, 2007 I wonder how he'd factor in the Kenyon Martin injury. Maybe we could have someone go Nancy Kerrigan on Lasme if we make it past the first round. What's Jeff Gilooly up to these days? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimbofive Posted March 6, 2007 Share Posted March 6, 2007 According to God's notebook, Wikipedia, his name is now Jeff Stone, and he is in car sales. I figured he was a lunchlady at Riker's but i guess he only got 2 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwyjibo Posted March 6, 2007 Author Share Posted March 6, 2007 I could do it formally but it would be pretty close to this year (50-1 using the numbers). What people forget was SLU was a very good team that year (our RPI ended up 33rd after we won the title but it was low 50's going in). SLU had just slumped at the end and so people on this board were really down going in. SLU played in the best division in all of college basketball (C-USA American). Cincy was a great team so that would bring down the odds but we still had 10-20% chance against them. We were actually favored (slightly) in two games and DePaul did not need to win the final to get a bid so that was a pretty 50/50 game. 55% x 15% x 55% x 45% is roughly a 2% chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milwaukee Billiken Posted March 6, 2007 Share Posted March 6, 2007 Great statistical analysis and post. Thanks kwyjibo! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwyjibo Posted March 7, 2007 Author Share Posted March 7, 2007 Ken Pomeroy has "log5" analysis of most of the conference tournaments up and includes a slightly updated version for the A-10. I sent him mine but I sent him the version that did not include the finals (do the formulas for the final round was a lot of work and now it appears I have lost that version). http://kenpom.com/blog/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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