The Wiz

Good question...Dayton has an exemption...If they were the play in team ...they would also be the home team. ...

No ...this is considered a neutral game. In order to be considered a home game you have to play in the venue 3 times in a season. An extreme example of this would be if The Bills would play at The Dome at America's Center (the old Rams hangout) or the Enterprise Center (Blues) it would also be considered a neutral court. The "advantage" has to do with different sight lines, a player being "more comfortable" at home , etc. This is not some algorithm the computer invented but is a rule that the NCAA came up with for March Madness in the 1980s. The rule was put into place to prevent a team in the first 2 rounds from gaining home field advantage. Using the hypothetical from above in a real life example...The first 2 rounds of the 2026 NCAA tourney will be held at the Enterprise Center. When The Bills get their Dance ticket with CJS they will be able to play at the Enterprise Center because they will not have played a game there during the season...If they even played 1 game at the EC, the Bills would have to be put in a different venue ...because after they beat UConn in game 1 , the second game against the Illini would be considered game 3 at the EC and therefore not allowed to be played at that venue.

Down to the wire....As the computer predicted before the NIT started...we wouldn't get an answer to our coaching question until the first week in April. This is the Battle for 2 days... it will be over on Tues or next Thur. After over a 2 week wait another couple of days won't matter. Doesn't this seem like it has been 2 months. The computer thinks this game may go into OT....2 A- teams that should have been Dancing will try to move into the Championship game with a victory on Tuesday. The finish line is in sight.

I could have fed individual players in to the computer but instead I fed the whole roster in.... There were 6 players that the computer said could play on a Schertz team...3 sure players and 3 maybe/bench players. Of course the player it liked the best was Parker but reports say he is not coming back. Another player the computer thought would be good was Hargrove...and we know he is not coming back . Finally, there is Jimerson. If Schertz brings 5 players Jimerson and a few other ISU players might get a few min less /gm which isn't necessarily bad. If he brings 4 then Jimerson and the other ISU players could play their usual mins. On the maybe / bench players(getting about the same min they got this year).....Hughes(he would need to improve shooting inside the arc)...Thames (he would need to improve FT shooting)...Curcic (he would need to get a few more rebs) Bottom line...1 player (Jimerson) could make the cut from the entire existing roster....3 could be maybe/bench players...Thames...Hughes...Curcic....the others would not make the cut.

It looks like the next piece of the puzzle is this game. While it would be interesting to see VCU play against ISU as a gauge against A-10 competition, it really isn't necessary. ISU just beat Cinn ...a team that the computer sees as an equal to Dayton...that should tell you all you need to know about ISU players competing in the A10. As I mentioned in the Cincy spread thread, ISU and Cinn (and Dayton) are both A- teams. This should also answer any NCAA questions (although a bit too late) about ISU having too weak of a schedule to be a Dancer. Schertz mentioned before Selection Sunday...if they went Dancing it would prove they belonged...if they were not selected he would use the NIT to prove that the NCAA was wrong. Finally, I am glad ISU won last night. While it seems Lville has moved on ...a loss might have given them a chance to circle back. Adding another week on not only discourages them from pursuing further but it keeps other poachers at bay also. Teams thinking about swooping in on Schertz will now think that if The Ville couldn't sign him, maybe we should look elsewhere as he seems to be taken. Bottom line...As the computer forecasted, there wouldn't be a coaching decision until the first week in April. In any case, we should have a new coach in the next 6-8 days. Tick, tick...tick...the finish line is in sight.

It sounds like Lville is under pressure to hire a coach. Schertz probably told them "nothing happens till ISU loses" because Schertz reads "The Wiz" threads. Lville then sees (they too read The Wiz) that ISU is favored yet again to win tonight. We (Lville ) are not going to wait a week ...we need an answer now....they don't get an answer and decide to move on to Pitino ...a popular name in the Ville. I think at this point it would be better for ISU to win tonight....A loss might reopen the door tonight for a Cards signing. A win not only forces Lville to move on BUT also sends a hands off signal to other teams in the meantime....Other teams ..."wow this Schertz guy didn't sign with U of L we better look else where". Tick...tick...tick

https://www.cardchronicle.com/2024/3/26/24112483/louisville-coaching-search-update

Not sure how the money will flow...but things will change. Just think back a year or 2 ago and how difficult it was to transfer...In the next few months anybody will be able to transfer at anytime to anywhere.. Pooled money....this too will change

How about this for an idea....Pooled money Give a coach a chunk of money...say $4 million and tell him $1 million is yours...the other cash is for you to spend on NIL...anything left over is yours...IF you make the Big Dance. If you don't, then the money comes back to whoever paid it...boosters, school etc. You can fiddle with the numbers and make them come out however you like but the answer is to let the Coach decide on his salary and how much he pays the players. A couple of losing seasons and it means he made some poor decisions and not just coaching decisions but money management ones and would probably be gone. I think this is where things are headed in the future.

Here is a pod cast that is worth a listen. This guy is the U of L announcer, sports caster for channel 12 in Lville and recruiting analyst. More importantly, he has his finger on the pulse of the AD, boosters and fan base of UL. In this podcast he talks about the 3 candidates under consideration...Schertz, Kelsey and Holloway. He gives a 3rd party view of pro's and con's on each coach. At one point , he says he thinks Schertz would be a good fit for SLU...better than U of L. Also interesting to hear his take on the other 2 coaches. This is a must listen if you are interested in the SLU coach search (and if you're not why would you be on this thread) and you are concerned that UL is about swoop and grab our next coach. Of course, nothing is done until it's done but remember this....nothing happens till ISU loses.....tick...tick...tick https://www.12news.com/video/sports/locked-on/lo-kentucky/louisville-show/could-josh-schertz-pat-kelsey-or-shaheen-holloway-succeed-as-the-next-louisville-basketball-hc/535-60caf5ed-49b6-4881-a8e4-48df4114415e

Since Holloway / Seton Hall seems to be another piece of the puzzle...I have SH over UNLV by 6 . Nothing happens till ISU loses... Tick...tick ...tick

The clock is ticking... We are coming down to the wire ...in more ways than one. I am sure many on this board are not happy with the headline. If you think the Schertz deal is done, you are ok with an ISU win ...if not, you are a Bearcat fan. This is a meeting of 2 A- teams both who were wrongfully shunned by the NCAA and both who were trying to make a point. That point is ...The NCAA should have listened to their own computer.. Btw...as you may know the NCAA turns off its computer on Selection Sunday. But mine keeps going and mine shows that if today were Selection Sunday ISU would have a 57% chance to Dance. Of course that is based on a combo of NET and Selection committee. In order to overcome the humans (assuming you are not P5) you need about 70% to Dance. If you are P5, you are good to go at 50% +. Game Preview...This will be ISU toughest challenge so far in the NIT. If the computer is right, we are looking at Apr 2 or 4 as a decision day which is what the program has been showing from the beginning. As mentioned above these are 2 evenly matched teams at A-... The computer warns there is a flashing red light on Cinn... they are missing 3 players all seriously injured in the last few games ...no questionable...out for season. These players average a combined 70 min /gm. Cincy is hurting both in production and depth. Computer says if ISU can have an average game... it could turn into a blowout. Bottom line....Rule #1...Nothing happens till ISU loses...Rule #2...In case of speculation, always follow Rule #1 Tick...tick...tick

Yes, they looked good against a big physical team.... Some quick important stats...TOs.. Ind St 10... Mn 15 ...And then we look at the next 2 stats FG% and Reb ...ISU won both ...usually indicates a sure win. (80% of the time)... TOs alone were worth 11 pts on a projection Next up Cinn...the toughest NIT opp so far BUT the computer has ISU winning ...stay tuned for tomorrow's numbers. The long and winding road to the new coach continues. Rule #1....Nothing happens till ISU loses Rule #2....When basketball speculating ...always check Rule #1

If you read my earlier spread thread post, I show ISU winning today's game by 6. If they win, they will play Cinn. ISU would be favored in that game too. But the cumulative probability of winning both games is only 42%. So a 58% chance of mid week announcement. No one from the athletic department called me, so here is how it probably went down. Hey, ISU has 2 games this week. What happens if they lose one of those games. We better give the band a couple of days notice to make sure someone shows up. If ISU loses today, let's make it for Tues or Wed. If they lose on Tues or Wed , we can make it on Wed or Thur. What happens if ISU wins both games? Then tell the band we were just kidding ...and to be ready for Wed through Fri of next week ...for sure.

Post season rules for SLU followers..... Rule #1....Nothing happens till ISU loses Rule #2....What about alternative plans and speculation...always follow Rule #1

A nice win for ISU. Next up is Minn at 1PM on Sun (ESPN2)...A tad better than SMU but a game ISU should win. The team most likely to win overall is Wake Forest....In fact the computer is showing a matchup with Wake and ISU. But because they are on the other side of the bracket that wouldn't happen till April 4 in the Championship game....not something that most Bills fans want to hear. Well at least the TV coverage will be better so that Bills fans can watch...Bills 2 or Bills too or Bills East or just plain BS ( Bills -Sycamores)

I will have to partially disagree with you on this. Have you ever seen a maiden horse race...10 horses that have never raced before yet there is a favorite and an finishing order for each horse even though there is no public data. Again, there can be surprises but there can be surprises even with data. There are algorithms for everything ....see my preseason forecast when there isn't any real data but the computer uses a Bayesian model to forecast what is going to happen. In the A-10 this year, it was pretty spot on when it said that 9 teams would be bunched together at the top and pretty much had that correct. While 1 game here or there might change the order...at the end of the season their was a huge gap between the haves and the have nots (9th and 10th place in the A-10) . The computer knew that at the 8th game of the season the BIlls were doomed for the season. You could say everybody knew that after a 40 point drubbing by SIU. But the computer made that forecast in early Nov before any games had been played. Even in the game last night with all the uncertainty , the computer had a forecast that said ISU would win by 6-8pts ...I consider a win by ISU by 1-3 over the spread a pretty good forecast. While SMU and ISU have never played , the computer looked at each game that each team had played this season and then connected the data dots of the other 360 teams to the current teams through a series of simulations. There is even a "luck" factor...when things seem "even" a team always seems to win (or lose). The computer thinks that The Bills luck is about to change .

Just a quick review before we get to the main stuff.... TO s were equal at 10...which mean we move on to the next 2 categories...FG%...ISU won that 55% to 48%....and rebs ...36-31 won that too...which gives you an 80% chance to win ..in this case 100%....Interestingly ISU trailed most of the game in score and TOs...but once the TOs turned around the score did too. Some things never change. The important take away in this game was the uncertainty going in....Coach and players in a no man's land...a lot of distracting turmoil,...who will be where next year, .... what about the fans especially since it is a home game...portal questions...As a result there was a great deal of uncertainty...this could easily have been a loss. Add the fact that they were down through the 1st 3 quarters ...this outcome bodes well for the Coach, the players and The Bills. CJS was able to rally the troops...change things up at half time......get the team back on track...speaks volumes about the Coach and the players....a sign of a winning attitude. As far as the computer is concerned, it was looking for ISU to win by 6-8 pts and they pretty much came in on target. It answered the computer's main question...can the team handle the non basketball distractions. The answer was yes and as a result the machine feels more confident about future NIT predictions regarding ISU. While the team could have easily called it a season and moved on to the next phase, they finished the job at hand....again this bodes well for The Bills. While I am anxious for the team to start doing Billiken things, it was fun to watch and see what a team that knows how to win looks like. The computer also thinks there is a good chance we may have to wait till April to get a final answer. Buckle up and enjoy the ride...

Here is an update.... ISU over SMU by 6 A lot has happened in a couple of days....a lot of distractions...not always quantifiable . In addition to the distraction, there is the question if home field will be affected. SMU however is one of the weakest teams in the NIT. In the end, ISU is the better team and should still win this game.

1.86.... Usually 2.6 or higher is great 2 is good The top 5 assist people this year range from about 2.5 to 2.75 Yuri came in at 2.23. This is not one of my favorite stats...You could be a great passer generating lots of assists and you could be bad at holding onto the ball which has nothing to do with passing. Bottom line ...He was doing better all around and had potential to be something in the coming years. He may have left because he feared the new coach would bring in new guards. Again, as I pointed out in an earlier post, it usually makes sense to meet the new guy and see what the situation is before you give up your roster spot and scholarship.

I agree on the LOL....If you can shoot 42.6% you come in at #101 out of 5522 D1 players. More like a million dollars a dozen.

Ah...you have been reading my stuff.... Yes this was the season killer....Regular TOs weren't bad...#170....C ...But it was the opponent TOs that was the crusher...330...F ....It was the TO differential ...the one stat that could trigger a loss. When we lost the TO battle there was about an 80% chance we would lose the game. We did OK protecting the ball but we weren't very good at forcing TOs. It all ties together...we were great at shooting 3s ...but not protecting against them...We protected the ball ok but didn't force TOs enough....Opp rebs not good....It was like we were going through the motions but were a step late. When we didn't have the ball we were not very good. This season would have been very upsetting to Majerus. With an average defense we would have been good.

I certainly don't want to question @Cowboy II 's numbers but I am showing Pomeroy at 329 on 3P% defense. Perhaps his number of 312 was from earlier in the season. But even if the times are in sync data sources can differ...KenPom uses STATS Perform for his database...generally pretty good but their are glitches from time to time... sometimes their are rounding differences... sometimes mistakes. One small mistake not corrected can feed into the data all season. I use Sports Direct as one of my sources( the word source is plural ...that is how you can sometimes spot errors by cross checking)...they have live data...ie the data is updated as soon as a game is completed and they have been pretty accurate over the years. And of course, there is the NCAA which is one of the most widely used sources because...well because they are the NCAA and they say so. Unfortunately, their data base uses 351 teams...there are currently 362 teams. There were 351 teams as recently as 2017-18 and they haven't bothered to update their data program since. And why should they ...things seem to be working well...there haven't been many changes to college basketball since then and if things get askew we can always "fix" things. You gotta love the NCAA...no matter what you say about them at least they are consistent.....in their inconsistency. To get back to the original question which was Bills 3P% defense...I have the Bills finishing their season at #337 ...they had been as low as 351. That was when they recorded an F-. That 337 isn't final but there are no 338+ teams playing now and the Bills 3P%D is not going to get worse. Hopefully, are days of 300+ offense or defense are over .

To your point...Player thinking ...do well and I can go with Coach

I never thought I would be doing spread threads on the NIT particularly if the Bills weren't in it. But in light of the fact that these games do affect the Bills Nation ...here we go. These will not be full analytical threads like the regular Bills threads...just something so you can keep your finger on the pulse (or take your own pulse). Unfortunately, the computer doesn't think this will be over quickly. In a series of simulations, the program showed that ISU will go at least till Mar 26-27 and probably till the first week in April. Not the news most Bills fans want to hear. But that's what happens when you are placed in the wrong tournament...When you wind up in a lower Tourney , chances are you are going to do pretty well. The only early off ramp is a game on Mar 26-27 when they face a tough Cinn team. Cincy is another snubbed team (37 NET...64% C2D). The computer gives that game to ISU because of the home field advantage...but thinks the game will be close. Going forward to Apr 2 ..Nova has a chance to knock off ISU but again a close game with ISU now showing a 1 pt advantage. And then there is the final game...right now the computer gives Wake Forest the championship as it feels that Wake is the best team in the NIT and consequently the most snubbed. In this game, ISU comes in as a B+ team...SMU as a B. Overall ranking for SMU would probably be similar to VCU (another participant ...but only a small chance they would meet). As you can see by the spread, the computer expects that ISU will be able to handle SMU. But this is the NIT and different teams handle this tourney in different ways that will not show up in the data. Some teams will want to prove themselves...show the NCAA that they were misplaced. For other teams, the players are thinking about the NIL, the portal or where or who they will be playing for next season. Word is that the Bills have some sort of deal...but the deal isn't done until it is done AND the longer this drags out the more chance there is that something could go wrong, Bottom line.... The waiting can be painful Sometimes it hurts End the NIT quickly And get onboard with Schertz