The Wiz

A-10............................................MVC Bills........A...................................Wich St..........A- VCU.......A....................................No Iowa.........B LaS........B+...................................Ill St...............B Day........B+...................................Eville..............B- GW........B-....................................Ind St.............B- Rich.......B-....................................Drake.............C+ St. B.......B-....................................Bradley...........C- St. J........B-....................................SIU.................D+ UMass....B-....................................Mo St..............D+ RI............C Duq..........D+ Ford..........D So which report card would you take?

Bills by 9 over Stephen Austin (B rated) Belmont....B+ Davidson...B Drexel........C+ G Mason....C+ C7 GT........A+ Marq.....A Prov......B+ Vill.........B+ St. J.......B Se Hall...B- DeP........C+ +5 Bills........A Creigh.....A But..........B+ Day.........B+ X.............B+

LOL...I will leave that to the gamblers

Looks like we match this week Mr. T. So I will just add some points for some additional perspective. VCU by 7 over But.....Dawgs in the dawghouse X by 4 over UMass....all for one and won for X Temp by 12 over RI.... Owls trying to dance with a weak partner LaS by17 over Duq.....do the dookies even show up? SLU by 6 over GW......11 is heaven Day by 5 over Rich.....Day flies over the web. St. J by 15 over Ford....Hawk flapping finally pays off against bottom feeder St. B by 6 over Char....Bonnies are mean in Olean The big game in the A-10 this week is VCU/But. I mentioned in an earlier thread that a But loss could create a mini collapse for But. A loss on Sat would be 2 in a row and I would probably favor UMass in the next game....a 3rd loss would setup the final game with X and while But would be favored over X....But would be feeling heavy pressure...If But wins 1 of the next 3 they will be fine ...an interesting finish for But. LaS & Temp cling to Big Dance hopes....I think both need to win out and then get to the A-10 championship game. Highly improbable both do that. A long shot either one does that. Who ever draws the A-10 bye will have the advantage....which now favors LaS but I still think reaching the A-10 championship game is crucial for these teams.

C+ just means Penn St is slightly above average...say similar to Charlotte in our league. They are just overwhelmed being in the best conference. They also have a SOS of 5. So the 2 teams that had the upsets have played tough schedules at SOS 4 and 5.

On the Duq game, I had us winning by 9 and we won by 9 and then took off from there.

Actually, the system is fine tuning itself but the Bills have been playing so well that it is having trouble keeping up. Overall, the system works pretty well. In last week's A-10 thread I was 6-0 with 2 games within a 1/2 point and another 3 off. If you can get 1/2 the games close (within 3) and call them correct that is pretty good. The Bills have been an anomaly(in a good way). Every time the Bills widen the spread the system adjusts...not much in any one game but over a 9 game stretch our numbers improved alot. Yet, for the 10th game I was still 7 1/2 too low... a testament to how well the Bills are playing. As long as I keep hitting too low, it is a sign that the Bills will continue to trend up. When I start to get close on the spread it will be a marker that the Bills have reached their potential. Here's is hoping, I am on the low side for another 12 games.

Well, for 1 thing it is not simply divide by 4 to figure out a seed position. What I do is take my rankings and overlay them over the actual seeds issued. After a number of years, there is enough data to try and predict seed positions....operative word is try. In the end their is still a lot of subjectivity involved....the need to put higher seeds closer to home, the need to separate teams that are in the same league, the need to separate teams that have played before, the need to boost bubble teams up plus etc & etc. Boosting bubble teams is taking a bubble team and moving them up because the Committee thinks they are better. For instance, let's say Temple was on the bubble (which they could be) and let's say they are the last team in (which again, they could be) they are not put at 16th seed but instead at maybe 11 or 12. Or let's play the numbers game....BE-8 bids...B10 7 bids....15 bids for just 2 leagues ...all great teams with big followings...the Committee is going to push as many as they can to high seeds ....there are only so many high seeds. So who gets pushed down ...usually mid majors and teams who haven't been there before. You could argue there is a built in bias. Experts refer to the process as underseeding. I personally think if we run the table and win the A-10 tourney we could go as high as a 3 seed. But again my system doesn't allow for the unknown subjectivity factor. I think it is easier to predict the spread of a game than it is seeding factors.

USC record is a bit misleading. They have a SOS of 4. I have them as a B team...so a game that Az should have won against a pretty good team. ...the margin of victory was damaging too Penn St is a C+ team ...a team Mich should have beaten but didn't. C+ teams are just good enough to pull off upsets at home if the opposing team has an off night. These 2 games point to the "target on your back" theory. When the opposition knows you are ranked , they try harder. For teams that are going nowhere this is their "Big Dance"....similar to the Cubs/Cards series.....when the Cubs play the Cards, it is the World Series for the Cubs.

I agree with kwyjibo that the SC game was not a bad loss. They are currently a B- team with a pretty good chance to finish at B. As for RI (currently C), it was a bad loss for the numbers but a good loss for the team. I would say if it weren't for that loss we wouldn't have been able to win the next 10 games. The team learned a lot from that loss. Sometimes a loss can help you gel as a team.

Great win for the team and the numbers....we move up a notch on my rankings to 19 and also up to 6th seed on the Dance floor. From this point on moving up in ranking and seeds becomes more difficult. This is rarified air. As for this game, GW is not a 3 point team....neither in shots or %. We should be able to hold them to two 3 ponters made.and then concentrate on the interior and we will be fine. I think one of the reasons we have done well during "the streak" has been our ability to wear down the opposition with our depth. I think the game with St.J was a good example of this. ...2 point lead at half...17pt win. And it's not just the depth but the proper use of that depth....moving players in and out at the right time....and for that, a tip of the cap to JC. Going forward, when teams start to wear down we need to put them away. And to continue a theme I started a few posts ago....we will be favored in all the remaining games including the A-10 tourney. Go Bills

if they win out......last 3 games plus A-10 tourney. He said this in an interview tonight at the Fetz as reported by the Rammer.

I would say X and LaS will be equally difficult....LaS the better team and X an away game. The key is there are no more easy games left....the remainder of the season, the A-10 tourney after we draw a bye, and then the Big Dance. It would be great if we could win the next 4 games as that will insure that we go to Selection Sunday with a 9-1 or 10-0 record over the last 10 games...a criteria that the committee uses for seeding ....in our case that would translate to 15-1 or 16-0 which is even more impressive. As I said in an earlier thread , we will be favored in all the remaining games. We will go into those games with a poll ranking target on our back which means we will have to earn every victory. Let's just do it.

+1

The UNM game is a mixed bag. If the Lobos win, it helps our numbers, if they lose we have a chance to move ahead of them in the polls. I have New Mex by 2 over SDSU. However, if anybody can beat them at the Pit from the MWC, it would be SDSU. Should be a great back and forth game.

When I see you discussing Billiken basketball again in a civil manner, we can talk about it.

I don't think you answered the question....Why are you here?

I believe I asked you........Why are you here?

Hmm.... I have a question for spoonie? Why are you here? If the answer is anything other than...... To discuss Billiken basketball.... Then you have come to the wrong place.

Mem.....A........X,,,,.....B St. L.....A.........St. J ...B Let me know if you need any others.

lol....well if you take Char...you not only have to add the Bonnies & GW but St.J , Day, X, & Rich ...all better than Char. 13 A-10 bids.....go Jerry

Some Dance notes.....I notice some forecasters have Temple and LaS both dancing. I would say they both are long shots at this time. For both to make it ...they would both have to win out the reg season and then face each other in the A-10 championship game ....seems unlikely. For either team to make it ...they win out and make it to the A-10 championship game. More likely, but still difficult which is why I put them as long shots. Hardest game left in reg season.... Temp/VCU....should be a good game LaS/Bills....we know who will win this game Here is what I have for this week..... #21 Mem by 2 over X....X gives them a run but falls short Rich by 6 1/2 over GW...GW falls into the web Day by 1 over Char....Day gaining some altitude Bills by 9 1/2 over St. J....The media's new favorite team will not disappoint Temp by 4 over Det.....The Owls wisely dispose of Det.

7?? UMass & Char??...He loses credibility with me

+1 The ESPN Insider post on another thread confirms we will probably be underseeded.

Perhaps, you need to check the A-10 prediction thread this week where I finished 6-0 including 2 games within 1/2 point a third game within 3.