The Wiz

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=cbssports%20basketball%20transfers&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&ved=0CEMQqQIwAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cbssports.com%2Fcollegebasketball%2Fblog%2Feye-on-college-basketball%2F21494783%2Fwhywhen-a-new-transfer-rule-could-have-big-effects-on-college-hoops&ei=rEvoUPm1I468qQHu1oCgAQ&usg=AFQjCNF1nTR6NNsTiaCcppEOmlGUGgRQaA The ability to transfer with no waiting period will have a major impact on college programs including SLU. It essentially opens up free agency. This will be an interesting and important development to follow.

I think the lack of def focus/intensity is a combination of playing a lesser team after beating a ranked team....exactly what happened to New Mex. The difference was we held it together and won. That is why this was a good win.

This is what a D+ team looks like when it plays at its best. The great D was no surprise but they shot way over their head...49% vs a normal 38%. Of course, the stat I like to look at is opponent 3pt shooting % ....only 20%... low even for them ...ave 25%. You could argue they only shot 5 times...even better...good 3 pt D keeps you from even taking the shot. Random thoughts... We seem to play to the level of our competition. Contrary to what many think this was a good win...When the other team is hot and you are not having your best game, you have to find a way to win. We did and that makes it a good win...not a pretty win...but a good win. The 8 point win while short of the spread won't hurt our numbers . After you pass 12 points it is marginal help. A 1 or 2 point win would have done some damage. It was disturbing to hear Crews say we weren't prepared for the defenses they threw at us. Said he hadn't schooled the team on them and it was his fault. Nice that he manned up and took responsibility but still disturbing we weren't ready. Better be ready next time as UMass will come at us the same way. Overall, this was what it was supposed to be ...a tune up game...turns out it was a tough one but some good may come of it if we come out ready against a defensive UMass team.

The issue in beating them by more than 18 will be the pace of the game. They are one of the slowest teams in the country. Beating them by 18 would be like beating a normal team by 25-30. +1

So MB, where is that Vegas line that that you say I am always copying...Oops no Vegas line. And now you know one of the reasons I have this system. Vegas doesn't have a line on many of our games. You must have been pretty desperate to use a system for comparison that has Kansas as the best team in the country. Hmmm....Kansas over Duke?????....You must be a closet Jayhawk fan. I think I will keep my system.

Savannah St is one of the best teams in the MEAC. Unfortunately, the MEAC is one of the worst conferences. As a result, SS is only a D+ team. Therefore, as an A- team we should handle them readily. This will give KM another game to get back into form and should be a nice tune up game for conference play. This should be 8 in a row.

But even Wiz's computer model is probably undervaluing us at the moment. Actually. right now I have the Bills at 41 a good solid A-. Under rated??? I think we are fairly rated at this time. Towards the beginning of the season I had us at about 45-50....some good wins and some painful losses and we have moved up a bit. I see no reason we can not continue to improve. With KM getting back to form and the Bills "learning" Crews good things are on the horizon. After the Savannah game, I will do an A-10 preview. For those wanting a sneak peek, I have the Bills at #2 in the conference (behind VCU) and dancing. I see the key to the season as the 2 game set on Feb19 (VCU here) followed by Feb 22(Butler there). A sweep and you are talking about a high seed.

I checked the numbers again and I would say Cincy is a legit team. I don't agree with the polls often but at 15 they are fairly ranked. It looks to me like Cincy just had an off night.

+1

Very nice win... and a spread of 14 is great. It is the maximum number that gives us the biggest boost. After 14 it is the law of diminishing returns. Interestingly, New Mexico stays at A-.....we are a "good" loss for them. We are 4 points better than the Lobos. The psychological factors that I mentioned in an earlier post (letdown from beating a top 10 team and being reranked, followed by playing an unranked OOC team during a long road trip) were good for an additional 10 points. And while you can't figure it into the calculations (contrary to what some may think) it is not a surprise for us to win big. As I pointed out to the Lobo, they will use this loss as an excuse if they do poorly in their conference (I currently have them 5th) Now another warm up game before conference play and we should be in good shape going into the season. I will do a conference preview after the Savannah game. Go Bills

So You go through your whole rant about what I do and then right before the UNM game after all the lines are out ... you post the Vegas line of Bills by 4. I thought at the time..... you look so silly. I wasn't going to respond to your post because it would make you look even worse. ....and then you continue to repeat yourself with additional drivel. Yes, you win......but only in your own mind. In reality, you lose everytime you post because you just don't get it and it shows.

Hmmm....... Well I have the Lobos rated 46. I kept trying to work the numbers to push you higher but it just wouldn't work..... Every time I tried to push them higher it kept rejecting,,,,It said see S Dak St.. I was very disappointed that you came in at 46. I was hoping for top 20 , It is worth so much more to us when we beat a top team. Much to my relief (and yours) the writers came through with a top 20 ranking. Thank god those writers don't pay attention to numbers much. So it all works out ...you get your good ranking and we get to beat an over ranked team. Of course, I am sure you are convinced I am wrong in that you have this great team ...how could I favor the unranked Bills over the mighty Lobos....Hmmm ... I must be a homer. ....By the way KenPom, Sagarin, and Vegas are in our corner too. I guess we are all out to get you. BTW, I took another look at the numbers and to be frank you have alot more to worry about than the Billikens. I found 4 teams rated ahead of you.....IN YOUR OWN CONFERENCE Wyo, SDSt,UNLV, and Col St. A 5th place finish would not be good for dancing. Of course you could always say that a Billiken loss caused this letdown against your own conference. Look at the bright side of things. I still have you ahead of Air Force. Here is wishing you a great season after tonight's game. Afterall you have to keep your numbers up if our win is going to mean anything.

Hmm... You know nothing of me...what or how I do things...You say I post before Vegas...Hmm...Maybe they copy me ...maybe I work for the Sports Book.. You know for someone who knows so much , you know very little. I saw the power rankings you follow. They have KU on top ...I can think of a half a dozen other teams I would put number 1. But this isn't about my system vs the one you follow. I post on here for recreational purposes. People can use the info any way they would like or they can ignore it. This info is for the fan ...mainly to evaluate the strength of our opponents. If I didn't do this I would have no idea if N Tex is better than UT-M. or if the UW loss was a bad one that would hurt us down the line....thus the conversion of the numbers to a report card system....It is easy to see a B- is better than a C ,,,But losing to a C is not the end of the world. As a long time season ticket holder, I started to do handicapping while the Bills were still at the Checkerdome. I use to bring my papers to the game (no mobile devices) and fans would gather not only to see what my line on the Bills was but on what conference opponents were doing. There was much less info back then. Now anyone (even you) can go to the computer and look up other peoples stuff. In some ways it is more difficult in that you have to filter out a lot of meaningless info,. But all this stuff I just wrote means nothing to you. You want me to predict Bills by 20 over New Mex and if it happens you will be a believer. I really don't care whether you are a believer. My system doesn't try to pick out events that are 3 standard deviations away ,,,,It is trying to pick out the most likely outcome. An insurance company knows there will be some people who live to 100 but it doesn;t base its model on that ....it bases it on the average life span ...the most likely outcome. You want me to find the guy who will live to 100. Not going to happen. I do appreciate your generosity in trying to protect innocent and naive Bills fans. I don't know what they did before they knew you,... Probably were taken advantage of by cunning X fans. I know none of this will change your mind, Perhaps the spreads and other info is not for you. If it bothers you ....don't read it. Wiz by 73 over MB

+1

Lol...SIU-E by 15 over Grambling

So according to the power ratings you are looking at....if KU plays Duke on a neutral floor KU wins by 3...hmmm I am showing Duke by 3...see if you can fix that.. Oh you can't ...nevermind....just one example of many differences. DaLove is correct ...I use a true point spread...when it differs from Vegas you have a chance to make some money...MB if you are looking for me to pick Grambling as a Final Four team...not going to happen....my system picks the most likely outcomes...sometimes it will match or be close to Vegas... Sometimes not...Many times there is no line such as the Bills vs UT-M Btw..is anyone else having trouble posting...I have had to switch to my phone to post.

Duke wins ...90-77

I had Duke by 20 on this one so SC won't be hurt by the loss and might benefit a little.

I think overall we would do pretty well....more wins then losses. Now if I get to pick and choose a little rather than do every game...we would do real well....Some on the board have told me they are using my numbers and making some money.

I may have to put a warning label on these forecasts. ..... Beware of side effects.... Probability may cause dizziness, stats may make you feel uncomfortable and numbers may cause nausea. If you are suffering any of these symptoms you need to step away from Billikens.com. If these symptoms return upon future use you must not click on posts that say The Wiz. If symptoms persist please stare at a picture of "Easy Ed" going to the hoop for at least 5 minutes.

Well, yes ...these are the marks of a B+ team. Even with bad numbers the Bills win by 27. The mark of a good team is to beat the bad teams when you have an off night. I think the Bills play to the level of their competition. They will step it up a notch against NM.

This should be a Bills win if we play up to par. New Mex should suffer a psyche letdown coming into the Fetz. A big win for them beating #8 Cinn....they were up for that game after being humilated by SDakSt. ...a chance to regain their swag by beating a ranked team. And they did. A hard fought close game drains you as well as a long road trip (time and distance) Then on Monday they will come to the Fetz right after being put back in the polls.... to play the unranked Bills....a letdown for them. I do not have them as a top 25 team nor did I have them before SDakSt. But it doesn't matter where I have them ranked....the fact is they will be ranked which is a great thing for the Bills. Make no mistake about it UNM is a great team...I currently have them as A-. The Bills are B+ now. A win over the Lobos would move us up to A-. I will be watching the opp 3pt shooting % again as a key factor. With a revved up nice size crowd ...if the Bills bring their A game (or at least their A- game) this should fall into the Bills win column.

Those that take issue are usually those that don't understand numbers, statistics or probability.. The cumulative probability of picking those 6 games correct (just picking the winners ..forget about the spreads) was 64%...very high but far from a sure thing....it was high enough though to predict a 6 game win streak. And yes, I still do work (with numbers) and supplement my income with Vegas.