Jump to content

The Wiz

Billikens.com Donor
  • Posts

    3,390
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    32

Everything posted by The Wiz

  1. To say of what is that it is not, or of what is not that it is, is false, while to say of what is that it is, and of what is not that it is not, is true. – Aristotle
  2. Thatch is under Covid protocol. That means he has either tested positive or has been exposed to someone who has developed Covid. If he doesn't develop symptoms in 5 days , he will be able to play.
  3. Chance to Dance SLU...52%...up Dav...53%...up VCU...50%...dn Day...49%....new No other A-10 teams that are at least 40% SLU and Dav up 1%...both did what they were supposed to do...VCU takes a hit after a pounding by the Bonnies ...down 7%. And Dayton's meaningful win over us pushes them into the picture....4 teams all around 50% ...Which means as of Jan 16 it looks like 2 teams will get in. This brings us to part 1 of a 2 game series with UMass...Thur is a key game, the more difficult of the 2 because we start there. A win at UMass probably means a sweep. But as you can see by the spread, this will by no means be an easy game. The theme for this game will be ....It's all about the 3s. UMass comes in as one of the top shooting teams ITN ...#3. They will be dropping bombs all night...They are 5th ITN in 3PM....45% of all their shots are 3s...they make only slightly more of their 2s than 3s...46%/41%. But there is good news too. UMass will be the worst team we face this year on defense. We will have plenty of open looks ..we just need to make shots ...btw, they don't rebound. Their philosophy will be ...we plan on winning by outscoring you in a high scoring game. Let's get to the report card and see what's happening... ...................SLU.....................Mass..........................SLU.........................Mass .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............A........................B+...........................B-..............................F- 17th WITN FG%...............B.......................C.............................B.................................F- 6th WITN 3Pt%.............A-.......................A+...3rd ITN...........B+..............................F FT%...............A.......................B................................................................. Reb...............A-......................D-..............................A-.............................C OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP....Off...Reb.....Def.....PPG...FG%...3P%...Reb...a clean sweep on D ..all categories up Down....Off...PPG.....Def...none Team FTs... Top 10 Teams ITN FTM/gm....The Bills...3rd...dn FTA/gm....The Bills....9th....dn FTM / 100 possessions...The Bills...4th...dn Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm SLU Assts...Collins... 2nd... unch Stls......Collins....33rd....up...big jump from 66th FT%...Jimerson...71st ...dn...22 place drop for missing only 1 FT...no mercy for FT shooters Blks...Okoro...82nd...dn Mass Assts...Fernandes...28th Injury/ Illness Linssen...Ques for Thur...Ankle and Protocols...1/15/22......If he has no symptoms and his ankle improves he may play...At this time it is undetermined whether he will face UMass Courtney...Out Indefinitely ...Illness...1/15/22...No date for return has been established. Mass CJ Kelly..Ques for Thur...Knee...1/ 15/22...has missed 2 games due to knee swelling...unknown at this time whether he will face us. Santos...Ques for Thur...undisclosed injury...1/15/22...has missed 4 games...undetermined whether he will face us. Walker...Out for season....Leg...1/6/22...Femur injury At this point , now that you have seen the report card , I would like to take a quick time out. The computer has asked me to do a short rant for it. There seems to be a discrepancy between what it is cranking out and what some board members perceive. Some here think we have a horrible team and we have no Chance to Dance..in fact we shouldn't even show up because we are an embarrassment. Meanwhile the computer pours over data and says ...WHAT?...The difference between the board member and the computer is that some board members are looking at only the Bills through a microscope...The computer pours through the data of 358 teams and says... Wow, this is a pretty good team... On offense we are only 1 letter grade away from the honor roll (Straight As)...We need 1 more basket every other game and we reach elite status (top 15% of all teams).... Meanwhile we have reached honorable mention on defense (Straight Bs) which puts us in the top 30% of all teams. In the A-10 , the computer doesn't see anybody that will dominate...our chances to Dance are as good as anybody. This rant doesn't mean there isn't room for improvement...There is ...especially on TOs ...The computer sees this as an area that can derails us...also inconsistency ..the inability to make our numbers all the time because of wild swings in different categories. Finally, the difference between me and the computer is I can take 1 paragraph to rant ...the computer would take 300 pages (all numbers) and if anyone disagreed with it it would crank out another 300. I just punch in Go Bills and it shuts down....Rant over ...we now return to the UMass report.... Keys to the game... The keys is the 3s....We will need to use all of that B+ 3P defense to contain them from the arc....If CJ Kelly (there are 2 Kellys) doesn't play it will be a minus for for Mass as he is one of their gunners. The bad news is even if he doesn't play they have 3 or 4 others that can pop from the arc....3 key players to watch ...Fernandes...leads the team in PPG...Assts...FG%...Stls... Buttrick...Reb and Blks ....R Kelly (no relation)...52% from 3....18th ITN WWN2D2W....Since we don't know if CJ Kelly will play let's do this...hold their top 3 scorers to 33 pts.......48/38/77...we will have some good looks...make the shots.......80 pts...this is doable against a bad D...the closer we get to 80 pts the better our chances will be to win....keep TO to 11...they will not force TOs . Fham was a B+ in forcing TOs ...UMass is a D+ ... if we have a high number of TOs then that is on us. ...Reb ...win the battle by 8+...this is an important stat...the last thing we want to do is give them extra chances. Bottom line...We are the better team ..on offense and defense. A win at Mass is worth 2 as we will be favored by much more than 5 coming back with a victory....Let's make short work of them...It should only take a Minute Man.
  4. First a trivia question....Why would a team that was losing by 16 pts with 36 seconds left in the game intentionally foul? Because they wanted to mess up The Wiz's perfect spread. On a more serious note, I wanted to start off the post game analysis with some excerpts from a thread I created earlier this week....WWN2D2W ...I think they are apropos in light of today's game. What do we need to do to win this season? We need consistency. This Sat we will play Fordham...not the greatest in the conference. We will have a double digit spread in our favor. We can win by doing less because Fordham is less of a team...BUT that doesn't mean we should. We need to make our numbers regardless of the opponent. If we make our numbers we will win 95% of the games.. How do you develop consistency? Focus...play basketball for a full 40 min, leave nothing on the table...Confidence...You can play basketball at a high level all the time...and Teamwork...where the sum of the parts is greater than the whole. And inconsistent we were today. But in the end, while it wasn't pretty, we did make our numbers. And where we missed, we made up for it elsewhere...which is why we made the spread. You may say, we were horrible... but we did what we were supposed to do. We didn't just win but we won by the right margin. Let's see what happened today....bolded statements are from the original post in this thread. Make the slash...48/ 38/ 77...if we do, we will win... Actual 45/50/77... This translates into the following ....we made one extra 3 and missed one extra 2...FTs were right on the money....variance 1 extra pt....So we did what did what we were supposed to do...just not smoothly. Out rebound them by 3... We did and then some...48 to 26...This stat was a game saver...This helped offset the next set of numbers. Win the TO battle by at least 1... This was a disaster. We lost the TO battle 20-10... There is an old adage in baseball ...give up 10 walks and you will lose most games.... 20 TOs is similar to giving up 10 walks ...It is almost a sure loss. ...except we didn't lose this game. Why? Reason 1...Points off of TOs...for Fham...12 pts...for SLU...9 pts...We had 10 extra TOs yet the Rams only scored 3 pts extra pts...This was huge in letting us equalize those extra TOs...Was it poor play by Fham or our excellent defense? We played pretty well on defense...Rams slash...28.6/ 25/50...I will say it was our good D. But neutralizing the extra TOs would have just made it a close game...we won by 18...What else happened?...Reason 2...as mentioned above we had 22 more Rebs than they did...That's a lot of extra rebs... enough to create an extra 18 pts. Hold Quisenberry and Chuba to 25pts...Actual...23Pts...Bingo...we have a winner...There is that good defense. The Rams are now essentially a 2 player team...Quissenberry and Chuba....After that ...all the rest of the players are averaging 2 PPG or less and less than 10 min/gm..... another Bingo...The rest of the players averaged 2.75pts and the bench average play was 7 min. We need to hold them as a team to under 70 pts...given their circumstances it should be closer to 60pts...Defense again....see Rams slash above... we shut them down and held the spread. If we Rubba Chuba out, we can be Ram tough and win....We did Rubba him out...What I didn't mention in the original post was he came into the game shooting 53%...we held him to 31%...Great job. Finally ...Grats to Okoro with another double -double and Jones who missed a d-d by 1 pt...still 10 rebs is amazing. Again, it wasn't pretty , but I will take wins on every game like that... especially by 18 pts.
  5. Dav...2nd ITN...41.9% UMass...3rd ITN...40.7% Last 3 games UMass...43.7%.....Dav...39%
  6. Before Daye quit For was a C- team....With his departure this takes them back to D where they have been for quite awhile.
  7. Colon will not only get more minutes but he will probably start and therein lies the problem...In addition to Colon they will start Chuba, Quisenberry, Charlton and Rose. After that ...all the rest of the players are averaging 2 PPG or less and less than 10 min/gm. Strategy...Run on them...mid way through the second half blow it open....Anytime there is a substitution...blow it open...
  8. There is no more scoring margin...it is hidden in the NET Efficiency rating....the largest component of the NET ratings....The 10 pt limit was under the old system... now you can run the score up as much as you want and it helps your overall rating. It is what allowed a team like Colgate to be a Top 10 team last year. The Selection committee prays that these "mistakes" will all get auto bids (which Colgate did) and the Committee won't have to suffer the embarrassment of "fixing" things.
  9. Fordham currently has 3 players averaging 30+ min/gm...1 player with 28...1 with 15min and all the rest with under 10..... No Depth= Trouble
  10. Chance to Dance SLU...51%...dn VCU...57%...unch Dav...50%...dn No other A-10 teams that are at least 40% Well the big news is Fordham loses their top player...Daye. He leaves tonight for personal reasons. A huge blow to For...the equivalent to The Bills losing Perkins except worse because For doesn't really have any depth. This is a shame for the Rams...In the preconference analysis, I mentioned that For was the most improved team in the A-10. Now that is lost and they are back where they have been for years...bottom feeders. Daye got the winning shot on Wed against Duq. To make matters worse they will have no time to make any adjustments as they leave for St. Louis on Fri. The thread title reads 16 pts but it could be a lot more. The Rams are now essentially a 2 player team...Quissenberry and Chuba Ohams...who for the rest of this post will be only known as Chuba. Let's get to the report card and see what's happening... ...................SLU.....................For..........................SLU.........................For .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............A........................C+...........................C..............................C FG%...............B.......................D-............................C+............................C 3Pt%.............A-.......................D-...........................B..............................B FT%...............A.......................B-................................................................. Reb...............B+......................B..............................B+.............................D OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP....Off....3P%...Reb.....Def......none Down....Off...Reb.....Def...FG%...3P% Team FTs... Top 10 Teams ITN FTM/gm....The Bills...2nd...dn FTA/gm....The Bills....6th....dn FTM / 100 possessions...The Bills...3rd...dn FTA / Offensive play...The Bills........9th...dn Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm SLU Assts...Collins... 2nd... unch Stls......Collins....66th....dn FT%...Jimerson...49th ...up Blks...Okoro...68th...up For Reb...Chuba...4th Blks...Chuba...36th Injury/ Illness Linssen...Ques for Sat...Ankle...1/11/22...it is undecided if he will face For Courtney...Ques for Sat...Illness...1/11/22...it is unclear if he will be ready to play against For As you can see the offensive numbers for For were weak to start...now you can just take those grades and drop them down a letter. Defense will stay about the same with fill-ins. Keys to the game We need to get offensive and I don't mean that in a bad way. We need to make shots.... Chuba translates into Rebs and Blks...we need to control him. WWN2D2W.... Make the slash...48/ 38/ 77...if we do, we will win. Out rebound them by 3...Win the TO battle by at least 1...Hold Quisenberry and Chuba to 25pts...We need to hold them as a team to under 70 pts...given their circumstances it should be closer to 60pts. Bottom line... We need to win this game...BIG. No excuses ...just do it....If we Rubba Chuba out, we can be Ram tough and win.
  11. What We Need 2 Do 2 Win. For those that follow me, this is a familiar sight. It is at the bottom of every spread thread, I write. It refers to the specifics of that particular game and what we have to do to win it....FG% , Rebs, TOs etc...Make those numbers and we will win 95% of the time.. In fact not only will we win, but we will make the spread. This thread though is not about a specific game. This thread is about the season. What do we need to do to win the season? What will it take to win the conference? What will it take to get a bid? What do we need to reach those goals? We need consistency. We have a team that came within 2 seconds of beating the 4th rated team ITN. That says to me, we are not lacking in anything except consistency. We have had in specific games... over 50 rebs ...less than 10 TOs...last night we shot 56% from the arc....we have shot over 50% FG% a few times...96% FTs (25-26) etc. I could continue to list stats to the bottom of the page as to why we are a good team. Unfortunately. we have also reb under 30 in a game,... TOs of 19.....FG% of under 40% ...3P% in the low 20s. Needless to say , the first set of numbers are all A+....the 2nd set are all F-. That is quite a spread. What is the issue?...consistency. Bill James, the father of Sabremetrics (the mathematical and statistical analysis of sports teams) said that the difference between championship teams and teams that finish out of the money is that the winning teams are 5% better than the losing teams. So does that mean they win 5% more games than the others. No, it means they are 5% better every game and therefore have the possibility of beating every team they play every game. The Bills don't need to play at a superhuman level. They don't need to shoot 56% from the arc every game. They need to shoot Bills numbers ...good numbers that they can do all the time....50/38/ 77. ...Rebs around 40...TOs 11. And they need to do all things all games. This is not a basketball smorgasbord where you can pick and choose. You need to to do all things well(not perfect) all the time...with little variance. This Sat we will play Fordham...not the greatest in the conference. We will have a double digit spread in our favor. We can win by doing less because Fordham is less of a team...BUT that doesn't mean we should. We need to make our numbers regardless of the opponent. If we make our numbers we will win 95% of the games.. We will beat the good teams (good for the selection committee) and run the score up on the bad teams, which for the NET followers, is a good thing for our NET efficiency rating. One last thing...How do you develop consistency? Focus...play basketball for a full 40 min, leave nothing on the table...Confidence...You can play basketball at a high level all the time...and Teamwork...where the sum of the parts is greater than the whole.
  12. A tough loss because this was a winnable game. Let's take a look and see what happened. Bolded phrases are from my original post. Their home field advantage is best in the A-10 with an added 4.72 pts....This wasn't the only reason we lost but it matches up nicely with the even spread and a 5 pt loss. TOs ...We need to make sure they have more TOs than us by forcing them to turn it over....We didn't...lost the TO battle 15-12...We also have to protect the ball...we didn't... the main issue is that we not get careless and give it away...we did...4+ TO diff and we win....instead we had 3 extra TOs and lost...so what does this mean?...we get 10pts on TOs...they get 17 pts on TOs...7pt diff in a 5 pt loss 46/36/77...actual slash 42/ 56/83...this is actual worse than it looks...the actual 2P% shooting was 36%...44.5% or less is F-....we needed 3 more 2PM to get up to F-....6pts in a 5pt loss. They will try to keep the score low...score at least 70....the more we go over 70 the better chance we have to win. ....needed 7 more pts in a 5 pt loss Hold Holmes, Camara and Smith to 24pts. ...we fell a little short here ...they scored 30....6pts extra in a 5pt loss we need to beat them on the boards even if it is just by 1. ...reb was weak...we lost the reb battle 34-28...3 extra Off rebs and 3 extra Def rebs for Day...whether that meant 3 extra chances for them or 3 extra for us ...let's look at 2nd chance pts ...Day 11pts..The Bills...2pts....9 extra pts for Day in a 5 pt loss. And that's why this was a tough loss...not just 1 chance to win but many. But it wasn't all gloom and doom...we saw the return of the 3 pt bomb led by Jimerson (23pts) and Hargrove(14pts) who had a stunning shooting night from the arc combining for 78% (7-9)...Okoro got 8 reb and Yuri got 9 assists....again these were all good things ...we just needed 1 more good thing ....choose from the list above. Dayton did not win this game...we lost it. Can we fix 1 of the above by Feb 5 ( Flyers at the Fetz that day) ? If the answer is yes , then we will win...if we fix more than 1 thing, we can whup them.
  13. Jimerson is currently 62nd ITN in FT%....He is currently 64th ITN in FTM....and is 5 FTs short in FTA from being in the Top 100 ITN
  14. https://www.rotowire.com/cbasketball/player.php?id=15472
  15. Chance to Dance The Bills...52%...dn VCU..........57%...up Dav...........51%....dn Yes, we slipped back a little on the Dance Chance. Also, we slipped a little on our grade...Back to B+....Why? ...A closer than expected win at home against a B team. A win against Day will fix Dance Chance and our grade. Just the same, it was still a great win against a very tough Iona defense. If you want to know the how and why of that victory there is plenty to read in the post game analysis on the Iona spread thread. Next up Dayton...Day matches our B+... thus the close game. Day, historically, is one of the most difficult venues coming in at #48 ITN in difficulty for visiting teams....Their home field advantage is best in the A-10 with an added 4.72 pts. And yet we are even...says a lot about the Bills. As expected we will have no room for error. I have added an addendum to the report card to clarify what we are up against. ...Opp def rebs and shooting 2P%. These 2 categories that Day excels in are closely tied together. If they make most of their shots then there are less rebs. So we have our work cut out for us. Let's move to the report card. ....................SLU.....................Day..........................SLU.........................Day .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............A........................D+...........................C..............................B+ FG%...............B......................A..............................B-..............................C+ 3Pt%.............B.......................D+.............................B+.............................C FT%...............A......................C-................................................................. Reb...............A-......................C-..............................B+.............................A+ 7th ITN Addendum to the report card.... Day...2P%...A+...13th ITN Day...Opponent Def Reb...A+...6th ITN OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP....Off....FT%...Reb.....Def....FG%...3P% Down....Off...FG%...3P%.....Def...none Team FTs... Top 10 Teams ITN FTM/gm....The Bills...1st...up FTA/gm....The Bills....4th....dn FTM / 100 possessions...The Bills...2nd...unch FTA / Offensive play...The Bills........5th...unch Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm SLU Assts...Collins... 2nd... dn Stls......Collins....46th....dn Dou Dou...Collins...94th ...dn FT%...Jimerson...63rd ...up Blks...Okoro...86th Day FG%,,,Holmes...22nd Stls...Smith.......68th Assts...Smith...72nd Blks...Holmes...31st Injures/Illness Linssen...Ques...Ankle...1/8/21...unknown at this time if he will be ready to play on Tues @ Dayton Courtney...Ques...Illness...1/8/21...unclear at this time if he will be ready to play on Tues @ Day Day...no injuries or illness Welcome to the list... Okoro as he breaks through with blocks and a big jump up for Jimerson on the FT side. Yuri drops back to 2nd in assts but remember that he is 2nd out of all D1 players...not too shabby. As for the report card ...offense slipped a little as was to be expected when facing a great defense. But the improvement on defense is a pleasant surprise that hopefully will continue. Good D can help make up for bad shooting nights. Keys to the Game Smith is their Yuri but to a lesser extent....Assts , stls and scoring.... plus a couple of big guys upfront... 6'10 Holmes and 6'8 Camara...lots of tip ins , dunks and put backs is what helps make them 6th ITN in 2s. The key to this game ...and Dayton's weakness is TOs...they are vulnerable....we need to take advantage of that while protecting the ball. Another key is 3 pt shooting....we have an advantage over them from the arc. If we make some shots...we win WWN2D2W TOs ...We need to make sure they have more TOs than us by forcing them to turn it over. We also have to protect the ball. Smith can take some away but the main issue is that we not get careless and give it away...4+ TO diff and we win. Rebs will be harder to come by in this game...we need to beat them on the boards even if it is just by 1. 46/36/77...make some shots especially 3s. They will try to keep the score low...score at least 70....the more we go over 70 the better chance we have to win. Play D...like we did against Iona. If we do that ...it will also be a winner. Hold Holmes, Camara and Smith to 24pts. Bottom line...If we force some TOs (+4), make some 3s (36%) and grab at least as many boards as they do then we will ground the Flyers.
  16. A couple of points here. There are some diversions that the NCAA is using...Look over here ...not there. Nah, the NCAA would never do that. Take for instance , we have done away with scoring margin....What does that mean? Doesn't that mean that scoring margin doesn't matter anymore. You would think so . But instead they have buried it in the Net Efficiency ...the most important factor in the formula. Want to increase your Net Eff...the easiest way is to run up the score. Well nobody is for running up the score. So why don't we hide it under that rock labeled Net Efficiency and tell everyone we have done away with scoring margins. Well then how about that part about all games being equal. Well that sounds pretty good compared to that old stuff where you weight the last 10 games heavier. Well, yes the NET does weight every game equal until it doesn't. After the the NET spits out the final ranking...the Committee takes that ranking and starts to work their magic on the final 15-30 teams that are under review. One of the factors the Committee looks at when it trying get things right (fix things---yes fix has a double meaning here) is the final 10 games of the season....how is the team finishing...are they limping to the finish line or are they sprinting...The Committee likes sprinters. The NET's primary purpose is to seed the teams that have been selected to Dance. If it can contribute in some small way to the selection process than that is a bonus. Bottom line....The teams that understand what is going on work the NET to their advantage.
  17. I agree it was a very good win....Iona is not the best team we will play this year ...not even in the top few teams....BUT they are the best defensive team we will face this year. As good as they are on D, they played over their heads according to the numbers. Imagine a great defensive team that has a great night (well above average). That's what you saw last night. They just kept coming at us and we didn't fold. And that 's what made it a great win.
  18. The adjusted net efficiency(offensive efficiency-defensive efficiency= Net efficiency) is the most heavily weighted part of the of the NET formula, so running up the score can have a significant effect on NET rankings. This why you see strange stuff on the NET tracker. For instance, last year Colgate was a top 10 NET team....Give me a break. But Colgate usually plays a weak OOC schedule running up the scores . Then they play in the weak Patriot league again running up the scores. Playing weak teams doesn't help much but running up the score makes up for it. Our win over Iona by 1 was a wash ....a win by 7 would have helped a little...a win by 20 would have been a big help. You may not like it but that is the way the Net works. The Mid Majors have an advantage in the OOC as they are able to run up scores on weak opponents or beat or come close on good opponents. Once the season starts the advantage shifts to the P5. Where good teams are only playing good teams....6-8 bids in a conference. Meanwhile mid majors can't make up ground because they are generally playing weaker teams. Their leagues will just get the 1 bid. Some of the higher mid majors may get an extra 1 or 2 bids to fill out the Dance card. If you ask the Committee, they say the NET is only a part of the process. They take the AQ first. Then take the Top 25 that didn't AQ. Then they look at the NET for the final openings....And then they start a mysterious process where they "fix" the "mistakes" of the NET. After the deliberation, they select the final few teams ...which may or may not fit into the NET in the right places. BTW...I do have the Net Efficiency formula if anyone is interested. In reality, it is something only a computer would be interested in.
  19. Coming into this year Okoro had almost a 2 yr layoff. I agree with you he has had steady improvement. Every good player has a breakthrough game....A game where they arrive... Last night was Okoro's. In the next game analysis write up (Dayton), you will see him listed in the Top 100 ITN in Blks (86th). What you won't see is that he is on the edge in 2 other categories...Rebs (needs 0.4 rpg more)...and FG% (less than 3% away). He has exceeded all his stats in his last season at Ore (29 games) even though he has only played a half season at SLU (14games) Breakthrough game...where a player is never the same after that game...Okoro will never be the same going forward...in a good way. As I said in the post game analysis above, we are growing and maturing as a team...and that bodes well for the future.
  20. Tonight the pupil bested the teacher as Ford beat his mentor ...Pitino. The team, though, learned what Ford already knew ...that Pitino was going to throw a suffocating defense on us. You can hear about it but until you actually see it and experience it, you don't realize the full affect. ...think Havoc / VCU / Smart. I think the tidal wave washed over us and knocked us back on our heels the 1st quarter. And then we settled in. And again, for the 2nd time in a row we closed out a tough game. Do you remember before Richmond...the talk was the Bills aren't going anywhere ...they can't close out games. We have shown we can close out games. Or before this game...Ford is not an in game Coach...Can't adjust...Will get out strategized by Pitino. Well tonight in a seesaw battle down the stretch, he beat the Master. Let's see what happened. Bolded statements are from my original post. 47/37/75...obviously didn't happen because of the great Iona D...looks like a fail on the surface but as it turned out it didn't matter because The Bills stepped up and had great D too. . Let's look at the slashes ....Iona.....35.5%/ 18.2 / 73.1 ......................................................................................................The Bills..34.5%/ 21.4 /96.2....The difference in the game was FT shooting....25/26 and 10 straight down the stretch. For those with short memories ...we led the league in the last few years as the worst FT shooting team in D1. For more info ...check the FT table in the original post of this thread. What a difference a year makes. If they are able to shut us down from the arc, this will be a very close game....Yes and yes hold Joseph to 7 or less rebounds (which also means no double double)... Yes and Yes...6 rebs and no DD...this was important. only 1 blk for him(Joseph)...He had 4... at first glance , this looks like a fail, too. But again, it didn't matter as Okoro stepped up and had a great effort of 4 blks cancelling out Joseph's play. Iona 2+ TOs more than The Bills... And yet this too looks like a fail...we had 19 TOs (too many) to Iona's 9....while 19 is a bad number number most of those happened in the 1st quarter... we settled down in the 2nd qtr and coming down the stretch neck and neck with Iona....no TOs in the final 4min 48s and only 1 in the final 6 m 48 s. And that is the secret to closing out a game. Don't turn the ball over. The 3 blown games were all the result of us giving the opponent the ball. If we keep the TOs down in the beginning of the game, we will have many more wins. They have a number of people who can score...hold their top 3 to 29 pts. ....Again not looking good on the surface... top 3 scored 41 but yet again it didn't matter as our top 3 scored 41pts. We have a number of people who can score too. We need to out rebound the Gaels...I am hoping we have corrected the Reb problem from last game......And did we ever....48-34...This kept us in the game. Outstanding effort. Bottom line...We won this game on FTs , Rebs and steady play down the stretch (no TOs). In areas where we came up short, we matched them....That's what good teams do. We are growing and maturing as a team. This bodes well for the future.
  21. I agree...or feed the ball to a driving to the basket Jimerson. The one thing I didn't discuss in the opening post of this thread is something that Master coaches do as part of their game plan. ...Disruption... Something different that allows lesser teams to win or stay in the game. . . A baseball analogy is having 2 right fielders when Matt Carpenter is batting and because he can't adjust he drops from a 300 hitter to below 200 . It is something that Majerus did and Pitino does. It is why Alabama (10th ranked at the time) lost to Iona....They couldn't adjust and lost. As I mentioned above Iona is a B team just like Boise , Belmont and UAB were. But there is a difference between Iona and those other B teams....Iona has C team talent and plays at a B level. Part of their success is to max out team talent by doing something different. It is not just that Iona starts 3 guards They will play 3 guards the whole game trying to wear teams down. Jolly will play most of of the game with the other 4 guards in a round robin. In our case, they will try to double team Yuri the whole game.... Disruption...The one thing the computer or any other handicapper can't do is measure how a team deals with it and adjusts to it. Belmont dealt with it and won ....Alabama didn't and lost. I didn't mention Kansas (Iona's other loss) because they have so much talent that Iona couldn't disrupt them. Maybe we will get hot from 3 ...DJ comes in to help from 3 and starts hitting a few....but if we get shut down from the arc , we need to find other ways to score....Adjust and win...It is what good coaches do when disrupted.
  22. They play 3 guards at once... in a 5 guard rotation....6'4...6'4...6'3... 6'2...6'0...Jolly is their main guy plus 2 others ....all 5 get heavy minutes.....3 of the 5 guards are transfer ins. Point of information...Iona has only played 1 game in the last 18 days... 4 games in 5 weeks. And with short notice and being away, they should not be on the top of their game.
  23. Chance to Dance The Bills....57%...up Dav............54%...up VCU...........45%...unch Well, I didn't want to jinx us, so I waited till the Iona plane took off. This is a good replacement game... Iona is led by HOF coach Rick Pitino. They have a well balanced scoring attack. In addition they feature their big guy Joseph...6'9" 240..Rebs and blks. I have seen some on the board talking about how we will be out coached. Even if that is true , there will be some offsetting factors. 1...Short preparation time...Pitino teams are very well coached and prepared. In this case, there was no time to prepare for us. That evens things out a bit. 2...Better team...The Bills (A- ) are better than Iona (B )...a decided advantage 3...Home team ...Bills are ready and rested and waiting. 4...Travel...A difficult trip...Bad weather in NY plus Covid protocols and a rushed trip. They have 2 losses...Kan and Belmont....They seemed to be over matched against Belmont. Nobody would say we were over matched by Bel. Good losses for them....Their signature win...15th rated Alabama....Bama is a good team but not as good as Auburn. So few people are familiar with Iona.. So I asked the computer what team in the A-10 was most similar to Iona competitively. ( Not style of play) The answer came back RI. Need more info....Let's take a look at the report card.... ....................SLU....................Iona..........................SLU.........................Iona .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............A.........................B..............................C..............................D+ FG%...............B+......................C..............................C..............................C 3Pt%.............B+.......................C-.............................B-.............................A+ 17th ITN FT%...............B+......................C+................................................................. Reb...............B+.......................B-..............................B+.............................C OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP....Off....none.....Def....FG% Down....Off...PPG...3P%.....Def...Reb Team FTs... Top 10 Teams ITN FTM/gm....The Bills...2nd...unch FTA/gm....The Bills....3rd....unch FTM / 100 possessions...The Bills...2nd...unch FTA / Offensive play...The Bills........5th...unch Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm SLU Assts...Collins...1st...unch...you can't do better than best Stls......Collins....23rd....dn Dou Dou...Collins...87th FT%...Jimerson...83rd Iona Reb....Joseph...46th Blks....Joseph....41st Dou Dou...Joseph...17th Injury....Linssen...Ques/Prob...Ankle...Game time decision Keys to the Game... We have the better team...both on offense and defense...with 1 big exception...3P defense...Iona has one of the better 3P defenses ITN. This means we won't get many good looks. If they are able to shut us down from the arc, this will be a very close game. If though, we can make some 3s, then the problem becomes Iona's and it could be a double digit win for The Bills. Another issue is Joesph...we need to control him on the boards and also not let him swat away shots. WWN2D2W We need to shoot well this game. ...This won't be easy with their good 3D and shot blocking...We need good shot selection....47/37/75...They turn the ball over about the same as we do BUT we are better at forcing TOs...Iona 2+ TOs more than The Bills.... We need to out rebound the Gaels...how do we do that? ...hold Joseph to 7 or less rebounds (which also means no double double).... only 1 blk for him. They have a number of people who can score...hold their top 3 to 29 pts. Bottom line We need to make shots . No rushed off balanced 3s and no shooting over the big guy. I am hoping we have corrected the Reb problem from last game. If we play like we did against Rich with some better rebounding, we will win....Let's nail the Gael.
×
×
  • Create New...