Future of A-10, Big East and St. Louis, Part 2

[WH]

There is always an air of unreality on message boards about the status of existing conferences. Most fans engaged in wishful thinking instead of hard-headed analysis – the result of a fear that “our†team will get left behind in any shakeup.

I’ve lived in Big East territory my whole life and I’ve followed the conference from the very beginning. If there is a story or an article anywhere that sheds light – via named officials or anonymous sources – on what the thinking is in the Big East, I’ve read it. I’ve also had numerous discussions with journalistic friends, athletic types in some of the schools involved and other sources close to the schools in the East. As someone on the outside looking in, I think I've got as good an idea as any about what might happen to the Big East. Here is my extended take on things.

First, the Big East is not guaranteed to break up, as so many assume.

The schools really want to see if it works, from a marketing and financial standpoint. If it does, they could maintain their marriage for a long time despite its unwieldiness. This is the land of supersized fast food orders and gigantic corporations such as Exxon, WalMart and AT&T, after all. Why would the sports landscape be any different?

Indeed, the reaction I’ve seen around the league after the first full year of the 16-team conference is general satisfaction. I’ve never heard so many coaches speak in such glowing terms about how strong the conference was and how tough the league tournament was – some called it the toughest ever.

The biggest complaint concerned the unbalanced sked. Syracuse got Nova and UConn twice and went 0-4. Perhaps the Orangeman would not have been a bubble team before they won the Big East tournament had they played each of those teams only once. I expect changes to the sked very soon, perhaps within months. The Big East will consider a more balanced in-league sked.

Some here seem to think the Big East was disappointed it did not get nine teams in the NCAA tournament. Many officials are, but while some think Cincy should have gotten in, others were surprised that Seton Hall did. Perhaps it all evened out.

In any case, I don’t know why 8 teams invited to the Big Dance would be considered a disappointment. The Big East got HALF of its teams in. Think about it. Only one conference did better, the Big 10. It got bids for 6 of 11 teams. Most years, it’s a great success to get invites for half of your teams. The ACC only got four.

Unless the Big East fails to breach the 8-team mark, this issue won’t become a problem. The selection committee says it judges invidual teams separately, so we’ll see.

What about the teams that don’t get invited to the league tournament or who frequently miss out on NCAA bids? Well, it depends on which teams they are.

Frankly, schools such as Seton Hall would rather be in the Big East struggling for a bid every few years than in a lesser conference where they have a greater opportunity to dance. The same can be said for Rutgers, Providence, South Florida and probably St. John’s, Georgetown and Villanova.

Why? Brand recognition, prestige and money. The Big East moniker gives these schools a great marketing tool. It helps tremendously with recruiting. It raises their prestige or keeps it higher than nearby schools in lesser conferences. And it helps generate more money than otherwise would be the case.

The Big East almost fell apart right before it decided to raid C-USA. What kept schools from taking that step, though, was the fear of a separate future. One of the big difficulties was determining which faction would have the legal right to control the Big East name. The idea of trying to create a new brand from scratch – I dare anyone here to come up with a good name – scared everyone involved.

Certainly a former member of the CUSA can sympathize with the difficulty in creating a powerful national brand.

To be sure, a 16-team Big East is likely to create longer term winners and losers. Some teams will almost always be good. Others will be perennial cellar dwellers. This is true of every major conference, however. Yet teams like Northwestern, Clemson and Vanderbilt stay right where they are.

Of course, every school wants to be a powerhouse, but at a minimum, all these celler dwellers really want is the ability to crack into the top half of the league on an occasional basis (probably because they have a veteran team.). If they can become more than that, great.

For that reason, I don’t see why Providence or Seton Hall or Rutgers would want to leave the Big East.

What about the football schools? I can’t remember the exact current revenue-sharing scheme in the Big East, but the AD of Rutgers says the nonfootball schools do not get ANY of the football-related revenue or profits. As such, this is not really an issue. Basketball money is shared by the basketball schools.

With the recent revival of Villanova and Georgetown, moreover, and the success of Marquette, it’s hard to argue that the nonfootball Catholic schools aren’t contributing to the success of basketball. They are. So long as that’s the case, this won’t be an issue, either.

At this point, it’s hard to find a good reason why the Big East will break up. All the schools, even the less succesful ones, make more money and have greater prestige and visibility in the Big East than would otherwise be the case. That’s why Rick Pitino deperately wanted Louisville to join.

Having said all this, let’s assume for a moment that the Big East does break up in a few years. What next?

I’ve long argued that the idea of a Catholic league – in a nation that still possesses elements of anti-Catholic thinking – is a dead end from a marketing standpoint. Our culture has become quite secularized and intense identification to religion often invites a backlash.

Furthermore, many Catholic schools have lost much of their own tradition over time. Like any other college or university, Catholic schools have put their focus squarely on the top and bottom lines when it comes to athletics.

Notre Dame is the standard bearer in this way of thinking, though Boston College (in the ACC no less!) is a close second. If a bunch of Catholic schools eventually do reunite to form a league, their religious affiliation won’t become a marketing or recruiting focal point.

The first big unknown is what a Big East split would like like. Would the league get rid of four nonfootball schools and keep four others? Possible, but I suspect that 7 of the 8 nonfootball schools would stick together as a block for bargaining power. We are all in, or we are all out, in other words.

As always, the pivotal school is ND. I could easily see the Irish sticking with the 8 football schools, with loose affilation in football (some more scheduling with BE teams, but little or no revenue sharing). A 9-team league provides for easy home and away scheduling in hoops and other sports.

If the other seven nonfootball schools split off – Villanova, Georgetown, St. John’s, Providence, Seton Hall, Marquette, Depaul and Notre Dame – I expect they would ty to stick together for leverage.

The A-10, however, probably would try to do the same, or at least the top A-10 schools would. How the A-10 reacts would depend in large part on who controls the Big East brand – the football schools or the nonfootball ones.

If the nonfootball schools retain the Big East brand, it would look mighty attractive to the 2-5 A-10 teams that they try to attract to form a new league.

If those schools don’t have the Big East moniker, the A-10 might have an advantage. The best A-10 teams could band together to try to form a new league with some of the Big East castoffs, while getting rid of less desired programs.

Yet even that scenario raises the question of who would control the A-10 brand. I'll leave that question alone for now.

Assuming the nonfootball teams in the Big East retain the brand, they could add two teams to form a 9-member league or 5 teams to make a 12-team conference. I don’t think there is any clarity on which way they would go. My suspicion is 12 would be the optimal target.

In terms of current resources, location, fanbase and facilities, the most attractive A-10 candidates would be Charlotte, Dayton, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Richmond, St. Louis, Temple and Xavier.

However, I could see Villanova trying to block Temple and Providence trying to block Rhode Island.

Depaul and Marquette would probably like to have Xavier, St. Louis, Dayton and probably Charlotte included.

The final team would come from either UMass or Richmond. I suspect the Big East schools would want the Minutemen as a traveling partner.

This conference would be broken up into two divisions. The East might consist of PC, UMass, Seton Hall, Villanova, St.John’s, Georgetown.

The West might consist of Depaul, Marquette, St.Louis, Xavier, Dayton and Charlotte.

Alternatively, if the top A-10 teams control the shape of a future conference, I expect a 12-team league would also be created.

Such a league might include Dayton, Charlotte, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, St. Joe’s, Temple and Xavier, adding St. John’s, Georgetown, Depau, Marquette and possibly Villanova.

Yet the politics of the Philly teams could make things interesting. Do Nova, St. Joe’s and Temple all get in? Do Joe’s and Temple block Nova. Does Temple join the MAC for all sports? Does St. Joe’s get shut out because of its size and poor facilities?

And if one of these three Philly teams gets left out, who gets the next invite? Seton Hall? St.Louis, Richmond? The Big East remnants might favor Seton Hall. Or Dayton, Xavier, Depaul and Marquette might lobby for a travel partner in St. Louis. Richmond might have the fewest allies of all those candidates.

Still another possibility is that the A-10 forms a mostly East Coast conference of Charlotte, Georgetown, George Washington, Massachusetts, Providence, Richmond, Rhode Island, Seton Hall, St. Joes, St. John’s, Temple, Villanova.

The result would probably be the creation of another Midwest conference. Depaul, Marquette, Xavier, Dayton and St. Louis would form the nucleus.

New additions could come from the old A-10 (LaSalle or Duquesne if they improve) or or nearby conferences. I suspect Bills fans would have a better idea of who might be included in such a mix.

To sum up again, it’s by no means certain that the Big East breaks up, but if it does, money will naturally drive the creation of new conferences. There are so many variables that so many outcomes are possible. I’ve listed some here, but in the end, none of us really know. So many unexpected changes have occurred in recent years, BC joining the ACC the most unlikely, that a scenario none of us envision could also come to pass.

[Billiken Law]

all of this "the Big East will fall" talk is a pipe dream for those on the outside looking in. The basketball schools have a lot of power in the Big East and IF the conference were to split the basketball schools have already secured the Big East name and the MSG tourney site.

With ND you have 8 schools, add one more and you have the perfect sized conference. Without ND you only need to add 2 and geographically SLU is on an island and is not guaranteed anything.

By the way, ND has repetedly turned down the Big Ten and with Weiss at the helm it looks good that they'll continue to have the leverage to renew that NBC TV deal for big dollars and continue to remain independent in football.

[billiken_roy]

that is pretty good stuff wh. looks at a lot of perspective and asks a lot of good questions. i understand your "brand" reasoning, but finding a conference name is not that big of a deal imo. they pay new york pr guys lots of money to solve stuff like that.

i just cant see how it wont happen eventually. too many diverse programs and priorities to not become an issue at some point.

[billiken_roy]

as long as the other schools allow notre dame to be a part of the football bcs bowls, you are probably right. however, force them to join a football conference and watch life change.

[StLouBlue]

WH, just a couple quick questions on the A10 immediate future?

Now that Chaney has retired, do you think the Temple athletic dept will try to get into one conference? I know that football is in the MAC now, but I guess CUSA could also be a fit. I am just guessing that Chaney had a lot of influence over the whole AD dept and with him now gone could this be on the horizon or am I worried about nothing.

How long will Hobbs be at GW. With a lot of seniors on the roster and not getting a good seed for the 2nd straight year do you see this as the time Hobbs will jump to a BCS conference school?

Do you think the pod scheduling will continue? It would seem to me that going to an East and West division would benefit scheduling and also make the resume look better for NCAA bids. A team can claim a division win instead of a tied for 2nd or 3rd place finish.

Good stuff on the Big East. While I agree the BE may not break up, I also can't imagine the bottom 4 teams being happy about not even making the BE tournament for long if it becomes a habit. One or two of these teams leaving and looking to join up with A10 teams could be how a new league gets formed, but I would guess it would still be around 5 years down the line at the earliest.

[slu72]

You can have all the diversity and different objectives you want, but as long as the money is in the bank that's where they're staying. I didn't know the football money was being withheld from the non fb schools. If that is true, then I don't know why they'd break up. Every big east hoops school is in for a windfall this year. Unless the traditional top programs like UC, Syracuse, UL, UC start to fall from their thrones as hoops kingpins, the Big Easy is staying together. It's the A-10's job to start revving it up and get better so we can compete with them.

[WH]

I am a business journalist during regular hours, which vary, so yeah, I think brand is vital. Whether the brand is a school or a league, casual viewers and TV networks tune in. And that means lots of money.

Brand is not easy to create, either. SBC and Cingualr spent tens of billions of dollars in the past decade to build those brands. Then SBC buys a failing AT&T and changes its name to ... AT&T. Thats the power of brand. Not even all those smarty pants ad guys in NY can create a powerful brand just like that.

I seem to recall that the nonfootball schools had control of the Big East brand when the league considered breaking up two years ago, but I am under the impression that Notre Dame could have swung the issue the way of the football schools IF it chose to join as a football member. I may be wrong.

As for who would control the brand going forward, I think the situation remains complex and ND could hold the key again. Its reluctance to enter the BE football league would appear to give the power to the nonfootball schools over the brand.

Since its beginning, the BE has consisted of a number of disparate schools with different agendas. Nothing has really changed in that regard. Breaking up was considered on several occasions, yet the league has hung tough.

Ultimately, I think money talks. The BE will stick together if it’s a financial success. Even the Catholic schools worship the almighty dollar.

[WH]

Temple has no desire to join the MAC or CUSA in all sports. Basketball is king at Temple and always has been. The school would love for football to take center stage and its fantasy scenario is to improve the football program so the BE will eventually take it back. I’d call that scenario farfetched, to put it lightly.

Philly is an East Coast city, pure and simple. In the early 1990s, Duquesne and LaSalle were in midwestern conferences. The Dukes briefly left the A-10, in fact. It was a huge mistake. Their recruiting and fan bases dropped off. Both programs have spent the last decade trying to recover.

As for Hobbs, he has supposedly promised LSU transfer Regis Koundjia that he would stay till he graduated two years from now. Reportedly that was the condition for his transfer to GW. But who knows? Personally, I am not worried. GW will be good for awhile because of the recruits Hobbs has brought in and the school has pretty good leadership. They’ll find another quality coach.

GW, however, has never been an A-10 flagship. Our success has never depended on them and it cant depend on them now.

I’ve heard several coaches complain publicly about the one-division format, including Phil Martelli and Brian Gregory. They say it will be reviewed this spring. I suspect we might go to divisions as early as next fall, and two years at the latest. The BE is considering the same.

On the Big East, the schools that didn’t go to the tourney were still amply compensated and they knew they had no chance of winning. They’ll be unhappy if the miss the tourney every year, but I don’t think that will happen. They will be good from time to time. As such,

I have a HARD time believing any of those schools would look to join the A-10. The only BE bottom feeder I would be interested in is St John’s.

[billiken_roy]

wh, i too think the one division format is tough. however, when we were in cusa, we had to listen to calipari crying constantly about how unfair it was that he didnt get to play charlotte, louisville, and cincy twice a year and had to play tulane, houston and southern miss twice a year. eventually he got his way. and to be honest, considering the weight of the rpi on teams, who can blame him. that is why any conference that is so large they cant play a complete home and away schedule vs all the teams is crazy imo.

[StLouBlue]

On the BE bottom feeders, I didn't mean join the A10 but rather look to form a new league. If Providence, St Johns and DePaul don't make the BE tourney for 3-4 years and the A10 is still only getting 1-2 bids a year, then I could see where talks might open up. Especially if in this senerio the A10 bottom feeders continue to hold back the league, I could see where some of the top level teams look to break away.

[WH]

I think two divisions can be created without too much trouble. The SEC seems content with its setup. It's all a matter of doing it prudently.

In addition, if we went to a pair of 7-team divisions, we could play every team in our own division twice AND play four teams in the other division once. Those cross-division matchups could be dictated by which teams are expected to be good.

Left up to me, I would create the following two divisions:

East: St. Joe's, Mass, Rhody, Temple, Fordham, Bonaventure, LaSalle

West: Charlotte, St. Louis, Dayton, GW, Richmond, Xavier, Duquesne.

[slu72]

You look at most of the schools in the Big East now and the differences in between them and A-10 schools is hardly noticeable. Granted some have football programs, but none that could be considered powerhouse teams save for WVU and possibly Pitt. CT up until their admission played in the old Yankee conference along with RI. They were small time all the way. The A-10 has to do what they did, get better. Look at the bulk of the schools, especially the non fb ones. They are the same type of schools as SLU, St.Joes, Temple, etc. What's stopping us, or other A-10 schools, from developing good hoops teams? That's what the A-10 needs more than looking for a new league. Now granted most big E schools play in bigger and better arenas, not so for SLU now or in the future, and that is a difference.In fact, I would put St. Joes, SLU, X, Dayton, Charlotte, and Temple on par with Prov, St. John's, SH, Vil, Marq, DePaul, and GU. Which by the way would be a fun conference.

[gister]

Another question. Hasn't the Big East been weakened in the strenght of its football programs? When the BCS contract comes up for renewal, do you have a feeling as to whether the Big East would be dropped from the BCS because of this weakness? I know the head of the Big East is also head of the BCS and that has to carry some weight.

Then, if the Big East would be dropped, how does that affect the makeup of the league, if at all. Since the football schools are the only ones which share the football money, it might not have any impact on the structure of the league, just on the amount of money shared by those schools.

[billiken_roy]

wh, the problem that will come up is the cross division games. who is "expected to be good" is a tough statement to make. slu would have gotten the short end of that thinking this year according to linda bruno's own statements about slu having to earn their way.

that is why a 12 team league made up of 2 divisions of 6 would be better from the standpoint of scheduling as then at least you play everyone each year at least once. however, it could easily drift into a problem again like we had in cusa where coincidentally the power teams all ended up in one division. thereby giving rpi advantages to that division.

[MU88]

WH, you make some interesting points. However, I question some of your assumptions.

First, you suggest the 7 or 8 bball schools would stick together if the football schools wanted to take 3 or 4 with them. I really doubt that. The bball schools know that it survival of the fittest. Georgetown is not going to risk their athletic programs to stay with PU or DePaul. It just won't happen. Schools must act in their own best interest. Based on conversations with people in the MU athletics department, they expect 4 or 5 of the bball schools to be dropped in 2010 and are postioning themselves to be one of the schools that make the cut. If the bball schools already see it coming, a doubt they will form a unified front against the football schools.

Second, even if they decided or were forced to stay together, I doubt the 12 team model would work for the BE bball schools. There is no finacial reason for the 7 or 8 bball schools to go to 12. It is just slicing the pie thinner. Adding SLU or Creighton or any of the other schools mentioned will not increase the pie enough unless those schools become a national power. An elite 8 or final four run by SLU in 2008 would make them attractive. A 7th place finish in the A-10 would not. I would guess 9 or 10 is the number. I would also look at schools that have athletic programs that mesh with the present BE schools. For example, if ND joins, I believe that the bball school conference would need to add a school with a baseball team to be able to sponsor that sport.

To the guy who suggested that the BE will lose their BCS status, that simply won't happen. The BE will probably have 2 preseason top 10 football teams next season. WV will probably be top 5. In addition, they may get another 1 or 2 schools ranked.

[WH]

As you know, MU, this is complicated stuff and there are a lot of moving parts.

I am less certain that the nonfootball schools will try to stick together in the future, but that's exactly what they did two years ago before Marquette and Co. were added.

Ultimately, money talks. So I could see the football schools trying to get rid of a few teams and forming a 12-team league. And I could see some of the nonfootball schools making a decision solely based on their own best interest, and saying to hell with their compatriots.

Who gets left out would be very difficult to determine, however.

I suspect Seton Hall and PC top the list. After that, it's dicier.

The BE football schools would probably want to keep St. John's, Nova and Georgetown because of historical and geographical ties and because of the big markets they represent. Does that mean Depaul and Marquette are jettisoned?

Alternatively, the nonfootball schools could form a 9-team league. It's an ideal size, but the urge to get bigger has dominated college hoops for more than a decade now. With the Big 12, Big 10, SEC and ACC near or at 12 members, I could see a new league forming out of the Big East doing the same.

That would depend a lot on potential TV money, however, and the one thing I have little clue about is what the networks want. Especially ESPN.

[MU88]

Well, two years ago was a different story. With ND, the bball schools held all the cards. If the 5 football schools left, the $70 million in tourney money would have stayed with the hoops schools. Plus, the 6 bball schools could have blocked expansion. In five years, all the schools can walk away with no penalty.

From what I understand, ND, VU and GU are the there three privates to beat out. SJU, DePaul, PU and SH are longshots. The decision may come down to MU or a football school for 12. I don't think MU can pass up VU, ND or GU in the pecking order, but they are trying very hard to do it. New facilities, new coaches, etc. This future scenario is what MU is working under. They are trying to get into the top 3 so that they get invited to go with the football schools. There is a reason MU is spending so much cash on athletics. An article in today's Milwuakee paper describes MU's decision to upgrade athletics. It pointed out that Crean made $1.65 million last year and is the highest paid coach in the Big East (although, outside income probably increases some coaches(Calhoun, Pitino, etc) take beyond Crean).

[WH]

As long as ND sticks with the football schools, MU has a reasonable chance.

Still, the distance between MU and all the other schools would have to be a factor.

If St. Johns revives its hoops program, it wont make it any easier for MU.

One question for you, MU. I've been trying to find out the precise details of who would control the Big East brand if there was a split-up. Are you 100% sure that the nonfootball schools would get dibs?

[MU88]

You are right. MU is ND's, shall we say, slave. From what I have been told, ND has been trying to get MU in the BE for years. In fact, MU almost joined the BE with ND, but for St. John's backing out of an agreement.

Who will own the BE name? Typically, I would believe that the name would be the property of the teams that stayed in the conference. If the football schools picked up and left, I would guess the name would stay with the bball schools. Given that I don't think the bball schools would leave, they would keep the name. That said, since all of the BE schools have already excuted a document that defines everyone's rights upon a split, I would guess ownership of the BE name has already been negotiated.

[WH]

It would be interesting if the situation you suggest unfolds. Twelve Big East teams leave to form a new league with the football schools, ND, Nova, Gtown and let’s say MU.

St. John’s, Seton Hall, PC and Depaul are left to form a new Big East. They retain the brand and the right to play in MSG. That gives them the leverage to draw the best teams from the A-10.

The could go the all-parochial route and invite Xavier, Dayton, St. Joe’s, LaSalle and St. Louis. I am skeptical, though. Or they could find do a mix of public and private.

I figure Temple (Philly market), Massachusetts (greater Boston market), Charlotte, Xavier and Dayton could round out a 9-team conference. Or three more could be added among St. Louis, St. Joe’s. Richmond and GW. Lot of possibilities.

That’s why I don’t worry too much about it. You can drive yourself crazy examining all the scenarios.

[huzzah]

In Conf USA here was the problem w/ the football schools vs the bb schools. The bb schools did not share in the football revenue, but they shared in all promotional expenses. Everyone shared promotional expenses, but only football schools shared football revenue. I don't know if the Big East has a similar set up, but usually these conferences follow form.

[davidlee]

MU88 and WH

I want to thank you guys for your discussion of the Big East and A10. You both have brought up many interesting issues, some I had not thought of.

I think we will all be watching how this unfolds in 3-4 years with great interest.

[MU88]

Agreed. I think most MU fans are enjoying being in the BE and not really worried about the future. The BE has helped the school in so many ways, it is difficult to identify them all. I found out last week that the freshman class for the engineering school may be as much as 50% larger than it was just 2 years ago. Applications have gone through the roof since MU joined the BE. The athletic teams are attracting athletes that never would have considered MU a few years ago. MU is going to start a $1 billion capital campaign in the near future to increase their endowment. The stated goal is for MU to become one of the top 3 Catholic universities in the country. Will it happen? I don't know. But the Be has generated that kind of excitement on campus.

That said, I don't know what will happen in three or four years. Maybe the 16 teams will stay together. Worse case, MU joins/forms a new conference. In any event, the athletic departmart will be much stronger than it was and so will the school. Anyone who suggested that joining the BE was a mistake was just wrong.

As far as SLU goes, it needs to make a commitment to upgrading all of its programs. The arena will help. But, it needs to commit to its olympic sports too. Soccer has always been good, but what about baseball and some of the other sports like women's hoops. The school needs to create a buzz on campus. Winning, of course, helps. Personally, I think SLU needs to hire a new coach that can create some excitement in the community. A coach that can get 3000 or more students to show up for every game. I have never been a Soderburg fan. Hopefully, for you guys, he can turn things around.

[billikenmetz]

Nova and Geetown both have football teams on an NCAA D I-AA level...do your homework.