A-10 vs. MVC -- Just one of those years

[kshoe]

Yesterday was a perfect example of how EVERYTHING is going right for the MVC while nothing can go right for the A-10.

Going into yesterday, the MVC had two teams sitting on the proverbial bubble with SIU and MSU both sitting around 40 on the RPI (SIU in particular would be lower than that when you factor in the D2 loss) and three teams as pretty much locks to get in. Both SIU and MSU win on the road at the teams that are locks to get in. That works out PERFECTLY for the valley as they now could expect 5 in the dance.

In the A-10 many teams have had the opportunity to make into into the top 40 but bad luck (and bad play) just keeps killing us. Temple and St. joes are both in the 50s but instead of Temple winning at Charlotte or LaSalle earlier in the week, they lose both. St. joes blows a big halftime lead vs. Villanova and can't pull off the win vs. GW. A team like Xavier has fallen apart, partly because of us, but suffers a crippling loss yesterday. Even a team like Charlotte that could put together a nice run fails to pull out a big game at Wake Forest yesterday. Even losses like ours yesterday kill the chances for a second at large team from the A-10.

The way this season is going I fully expect one of the bottom 5 MVC teams to win the tourney (thus getting them 6 bids) and for GW to win our tourney thus ensuring Juan Bid shows up for the 2nd straight year.

The good news is the A-10 will lead the world in NIT teams.

[Bay Area Billiken]

There is an obvious flaw in the RPI system when an SIU loss to a Division 2 team does not count.

I saw Wichita State struggle mightily to beat a sub-.500 USF team out here. USF was winning for much of that game and easily could have won it. There was not a lot of significant difference between those two teams. WSU was better, but not by a lot.

I don't think there is much real difference between the MVC and A-10 either, except the A-10 is brought down by St. Bonaventure and Duquesne. SLU's own RPI is likely to take another hit this week just by playing Duquesne. SLU really needs to win that one.

An MVC friend of mine noted that the Valley has benefited from Quin Snyder's apparent blind eye to in-state Missouri talent. There are Missouri bred players all around starring in the MVC.

[BeeLine]

The only problem I see is that's what a lot of SLU backers said last year, when the MVC was clearly superior to the A-10. I think both leagues are "trending"; the Valley up and the A-10 down. The Valley's top teams are all very young and for the most part return alot of their stars and best players. UNI will have the most significant losses, and WSU loses Miller, their post player; but SIU returns intact, Creighton returns almost intact with Funk coming back from a injury redshirt, WSU has everyone but Miller back, Missouri State loses two srs who were part of a 9 man rotation, but returns everyone else and has Spencer Laurie as a redshirt, frosh Kyle Kirk and Ryan Jehle among others to replace the two departures.

I think the future for SLU looks bright in the A-10 with their young talent, but I think the league as a whole will continue to be a couple notches below the Valley in the next few years.The bottom of both leagues are rather weak, but the A-10 has a few more of "those teams". The A-10 can schedule a few more "Name Teams", but the Valley is doing a great job of avoiding most schedule killers among their top teams and have been unafraid to go on the road against BCS teams such as WSU playing Illinois and Mich State this year, Missouri State going to Oklahoma last year, Arkansas this, and rumored to be going to Louisville to play Kentucky next year.

If things hold down the stretch, the Valley will deserve 5 bids this year, may not get them, but if they don't it will probably mean the selection committee caved in and rewarded BCS TEAMS WITH 40 + RPI'S ahead of teams with better measureables.

[Bay Area Billiken]

Per Ken Pomeroy's RPI calculation before Sunday's games, the MVC would easily get 5 teams into the NCAA:

#19 Northern Iowa;

#22 Wichita State;

#23 SIU (that SLU beat by 14 points, and that lost to a D-2 team);

#24 Missouri State;

#29 Creighton.

Will SIU's loss to a D-2 even be considered by the NCAA Committee? It does not factor into the RPI of SIU or its opponents.

Unfortunately, the A-10 could well be a 1 bid league: #36 George Washington, if GW wins the A-10 Tournament. If GW does not win the conference tournament, then I would think the A-10 would get 2 teams. Right now the NCAA would cut off at #50 St. Joseph's, but we know St. Joe's (10-11) is not going to the NCAA unless it wins the A-10 Tournament.

The MVC would have 1 NIT team: #64 Bradley. The A-10 would be loaded with NIT teams: #58 Temple, #73 Xavier (that SLU has beaten twice), #93 St. Louis U., and #97 LaSalle. If St. Joe's finishes at least .500, it could take LaSalle's NIT bid. Charlotte (#104) would be out per a pure following of the RPI, but Charlotte could get in the NIT. It would seem that a hot run by Temple could get the second A-10 NCAA bid. But we SLU supporters need our Billikens to beat Temple next weekend. And, of course, SLU needs to beat Duquesne first this week in a game that will likely cause SLU to take a big RPI hit just by playing the game.

[billiken_roy]

the reason d-2 losses dont count is because wins dont count either. a few years ago, the ncaa wanted the teams to quit playing all the exhibition games vs those thrown together all star alumni teams. they asked the schools to instead play the d-2 and d-3 teams as exhibitions. and those games wouldnt count in their records.