RPI Update

[kshoe]

I'm sure most people that follow this board are familiar with this site but RPI forecast is one of the better places to look at the current RPIs and far more importantly, projected RPIs under various final records.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/index2.html

A few things of note:

1) The A-10 has creeped ahead of the SEC for projected year-end conference RPI and is now 7th.

2) The regular season record SLU could have and still have an RPI of 40 or better has decreased to 21-9. A few weeks ago it was 23-7 and before last weekend it was 22-8.

Both of these details are undoubtedly due to the success the A-10 teams have had over the past few weeks in non-con play, highlighted by Butler's win over Indiana. That one is particularly nice from SLU's perspective because we play them twice.

Lastly, this site lists the probability of SLU having a record of 21-9 or better as about 24%. I'm virtually certain those probabilities don't factor in Kwamain's return so in reality it's much higher than that. Food for thought for those that believe this season is already over or that we'll have to win the A-10 tourney to make the dance.

[billiken_roy]

i agree the conference appears to be strong enough that we will have the opportunity to make our way to an ncaa invite with at least a top four finish in the A-10. maybe even 5th. adding butler and vcu will be great for the conference this season.

[kwyjibo]

I'm sure most people that follow this board are familiar with this site but RPI forecast is one of the better places to look at the current RPIs and far more importantly, projected RPIs under various final records.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/index2.html

A few things of note:

1) The A-10 has creeped ahead of the SEC for projected year-end conference RPI and is now 7th.

2) The regular season record SLU could have and still have an RPI of 40 or better has decreased to 21-9. A few weeks ago it was 23-7 and before last weekend it was 22-8.

Both of these details are undoubtedly due to the success the A-10 teams have had over the past few weeks in non-con play, highlighted by Butler's win over Indiana. That one is particularly nice from SLU's perspective because we play them twice.

Lastly, this site lists the probability of SLU having a record of 21-9 or better as about 24%. I'm virtually certain those probabilities don't factor in Kwamain's return so in reality it's much higher than that. Food for thought for those that believe this season is already over or that we'll have to win the A-10 tourney to make the dance.

I had not noticed that the 21-9 Billikens are forecast at 37th in RPI. That is good news as the A-10 season is going to be brutal. That makes the chances pretty good. In January, I may start a summary of the percent chances of tournament at-large and/or seed.

The boost came in part from some of our conference mates winning like the big Butler win (and non-conference foes as well) but the most dramatic change came in the rejiggering of Sagarin's predictor and removal of last year's info/seed (VCU got a huge boost; Dayton, Charlotte, etc. got better projected records) I believe. I checked the RPIforecast site after the Saturday's games were added and 21-9 was still near 50th in RPI rating. I think Sagarin removed the seed sometime early this week.