Old guy

Glad your predictions turn so well, but I hope we do better this year than that. I could see a loss to GW, amd maybe a loss to VCU but no more. I am going for 27-4 by the end of the regular play. Will be delighted if we manage to win another game and end 28-3 in the regular season.

Nice win, we now have 13 wins in a row, going for 14 Saturday.

Back from the game, nice win, very happy to have watched the wonderful first half. I did expect better from Richmond, but they just did not have it tonight.

All of those who are wringing their hands and worrying about the game tonight, obviously you are convinced (as I am) that SLU will win.

Currently BetOnLine and Bookmaker have SLU as favored to win by -9.0. Pinnacle has us favored to win at -8.5. Slowly moving up in the price spreads.

I would add GW to the list of games to be concerned about.

The first point spread for this game published in team rankings (from BetOnLine) is -8.0 favoring SLU, confidence level 4 stars out of 5 for a SLU win.

Thank you AlumniFan, I do not see the fat tails happening but we will see.

Fat tails?

Not if we hit 75% with the same number of goal attempts.

We are not Villanova and Richmond is not Creighton. That said, we seem to go through a period of loss of confidence and hand wringing prior to just about every game. This nervousness was justified before our game with Dayton (Dayton has been doing terrible in conference play, but they did beat Gonzaga, and Baylor in the preseason), and I think this may be justified before we go against VCU. However I am not nervous against Richmond, I think we will win.

Wrong alumni fan, all indications including the betting site projections point to a SLU win. We should win this one.

Stonewall, not meaning to say that Vegas is always right but if you check team rankings projections for this game SLU is heavily favored.

A poll is a poll, it seeks opinion from coaches or writers or whatever. The difference of a single ranking in such ranking system is not very significant. I think there is significance in being included in the top 25 rank by a number of polls all of which use slightly different polling systems. We should be happy we are in the top 25. Now exactly where we are in comparison with other programs is something that none of these polls can determine very well. Yes, there is a large difference between to top five ranked programs and the bottom 5 programs (of the 25), but there is not much difference between 19 and 20 or 14 and 15. Being 19 in one poll and 20 in another does not mean a whole lot of difference. As far as SLU goes, we are safely within the top 25 and we should win the next four games (Richmond, George Mason, St. Joseph and LaSalle), however this does not mean we will win, only that we should. I do not think we are going to reach a serious opponent until we play VCU.

Neither does the AP poll but everyone seems to think it is the real measure of rank.

We are # 21 in the Coaches Poll

I agree with you Wiz. What I like the most about your technique is the classification process of the teams into A+, A, A-. etc... Since the classification changes constantly according to the most recent play results you have created a dynamic system capable to detect and express changes between teams in a comparable way. It really does not mean that an A+ team will necessarily win over a C ranked team but the exceptions to the rule will not be significant. These things have to be looked upon in a dynamic, constantly changing manner. What is right today may not be right tomorrow, etc... The chances for SLU to win the next 4 games may be "X" today, but they certainly will not be the same after another round of games has been played, and so on and so forth. It is extraordinarily difficult to predict results far in advance in situations such as these. The best I can do is to come with an approximation that is satisfactory and follow it. The closer we get to the termination of the 4 game series the more I will be reassured of the accuracy or inaccuracy of my approximation. In other words, yes it is correct that these approximations will not come true all the time. And so what? I know that from the word go and I am willing to live with the negative results because I believe I will be correct in a majority of the games played. if I was a betting man I would be making money on this (offset of course by the times I blow it). You (plural) plainly cannot be correct 100% of the time, but you can be correct a majority of the time. I regress to the quote from Descartes 1637

Kshoe, I agree some of the games we won with a bit of luck. But I want to point out that a really good team manages to get the work done and win consistently. It does not have to be pretty, it may be done by the skin of your teeth, but it is done. Teams that do pull that kind of wins "by the skin of their teeth" in a consistent manner, like SLU has been doing, ARE REALLY GOOD, not only lucky. I happen to think we are really good and we are going places this year. We will see, I certainly have no way of predicting the future with complete certainly, but I think things have been falling into place and we are poised and pointed in the right direction. Time alone will tell.

Then do not use the math, just enjoy the games.

Good post Brianstl, very good. The problem with statistics is that they do not provide a dynamic determination or reality. Rolling the dice is just an approximation, and a distant one at that, to real life. What we need to do is to give all of this "dead" material (largely statistic numbers), some dynamically changing dimension that brings them closer to reality. I mentioned momentum, that is something we can look at and use. Sports are very complex with many factors involved, however (as long as we accept a certain amount of intrinsic error incorporated into the analysis) we can simplify the stats. The Wiz does it with his classification of teams as A+, A, A-, etc... There are many ways to look at the sports puzzle that will provide a better and more dynamic (more reality like) picture than just rolling the dice.

That is something that may make it better for us, but they have not played enough after this player's injury to show how much of an impact the injury may have on their team play.

The team that worries me the most is GW.

No way we have been winning too much, I would say we have just had the correct number of wins... and more to come our way.

A lot lower than they were last Tuesday. Look at it this way, there is something to be said about momentum. A team that wins consistently tends to continue doing so barring injury or significant changes in its composition (like we will have when the current 5 seniors depart at the end of this year).

Wiz I see where you are coming from and both agree and disagree with you. Take the three games as a unit, the probability NOW of winning all 3 of them is small. However every time you win one game the probability of winning the remaining number in the series increases. So, beating St J makes the cumulative probability of winning all three games better, and winning LaS makes the probability of winning the VCU game even better. Actually before we get to VCU I believe we may quite likely win the prior 4 games (including Richmond and GM). I think winning VCU will be more difficult than the others. And yes, we have to take care of the games one at a time.