The Wiz

Yes ...that was Majerus like...He used to say he would take a player sight unseen that could shoot 180+....And that if he had a team made up of 180s he couldn't lose. Tonight was 196.

Before I get to your question, let me say that the computer is showing that VCU has a 68% chance to get a Dance bid...that includes auto or at large....I would also say that most of the 68% comes from the auto bid.. Finally, VCU is the only team in the A10 that has a chance for an at large bid. As far as the NET 29 finish without an auto bid the only way that happens is if VCU goes 4-1...they finish with a 28-6 record and a good chance for an at large bid. The reason they have to go 4-1 to get a 29 NET is that as soon as they have a loss their NET will drop . By winning the next 4 games they can drop their NET lower so that if they lose the final game their NET would drop back to around 29. So what are their chances in this scenario? The answer is it depends...there never are simple answers. (says the NCAA Selection Committee). The simple answer based on the probabilities and a rational Committee would be 78%. This assumes that VCU loses to a Top 4 team in the final game . Suppose though, they lose to Fordham on the last game....they would be 28-6 with a 56% Chance to Dance. Of course your NET would also probably drop below 29 too. In the end, an at large bid would depend on what other teams do. How many conference winning teams lose their tourney and auto bids. If every conference winner wins their tourney, the chance for an at large bid for the A10 increases. Also remember, the Committee says..."once the selection process starts, we throw out the NET and look at "other factors". " There is a 5th dimension beyond that which is known to man...You're traveling through another dimension, a dimension not only of sight and sound but of mind. You have entered the NCAA Selection Committee Zone.

As Yogi Berra once said...It is Deja Vu all over again. We continue to move sideways at grade B. Yet, we are now at the highest point of the season... once again. We were here , before after the win over UMass. We were on the ledge then and fell off. This is a second chance to make B+. If you go back to the preseason outlook for this season or any earlier season , you will read about B+...It is the Holy Grail to make the post season. It is the minimum grade to guarantee a top 4 finish and to do well in the A10 tourney. If you win the tourney, you get the auto bid and usually wind up with a minimum of A-. A- means you not only get a bid but you belong there...you are good enough to compete. So what does all this mean?...It means that The Bills will have to win out....i.e. 6 in a row. The Loy game is the key...will we break through toward a B+ and a top 4 finish or will we fall back...We have a second chance ...make it count. Top 4... It is a 4 team race for 2 spots. As mentioned above if we win the next 3 games , we should be in the Top 4 (we have the tie breakers too). The computer is showing we will be favored in 2 games ...this one and Duq. While Day will be favored when we play them the numbers are closing. If we can beat Loy , we will have a decent chance to win even if Day is favored as their trend line has been weakening. Take it 1 game at a time...we beat Loy and eliminate them....Beat Day and eliminate them ...and beat Duq and become a Top 4. Game preview.... We should have won the last game but for a number of reasons we didn't. Let's start with Dawson and Edwards....Last time we played Loy they shot 67% from the arc(10-15)...those are staggering numbers....almost double what they normal do. Let's say they have a good night and shoot 40%...that is 4 less 3s (12pts)...we win the game. (we lost by 9). Those 2 guys scored a combined 43pts ...a normal night is 25...18 pts extra pts meant it could have been a 9 pt Bills win. The good news is they probably won't shoot 67% again BUT we have to make sure they don't do it again. We also have to take care of their big guy...Rubin. He was a pass / fail last time. He is shooting 68.8% (6th ITN) ...last time we held him to 44%..a passing grade ...but we gave up 4 blks to him ...he usually gets 2...fail. On rebs, Rubin usually get 5 ... against us 11. He plants himself under the basket for put backs, rebs and blocked shots. Don't shoot into the tree. Let's look at another area...steals and blocks...We usually have about the same number of steals as Loy and Loy usually has 1 or 2 blks more than us. In our last game with them ...we had 3 & 3 they had 8 &8...unacceptable...We need to protect the ball better and take smarter shots...We had an extra 5 TOs which lead to an extra 8 pts for the Ramblers... add in the lost opportunity shots and you have 14pts ...another game changer.... Offense wise, we are pretty much even with them and we have a slight edge on defense...If we are on our game , we should beat them. Let's look at the Card... Report Card.... Report Card change....1 up...2 dn...6 unchanged = -1 UP.....OFF....none....DEF....PPG Dn....OFF....PPG....FT%....DEF........None ................SLU................Loy.....................SLU.........................Loy .......................OFF...............................................DEF.......... PPG...........C-..................C.........................B............................B+ FG%..........B+.................B.........................A-............................B 3P%..........C....................B.........................B............................B- FT%..........F+.................F........................................................ Reb............C+................C........................D...............................B+ OFF Rebs = total Bills rebs...DEF Rebs = opp total reb Top 100 In The Nation SLU... 2P%....Team.........4th.......unch PPG.....Avila.........100th....up Asst....Swope........82nd.....dn 3PM......Jimerson...41st...dn ..............Swope.......34th...up Reb....Anya............44th...dn Loy.... FG%....Rubin....6th 2P%.....Rubin...18th Blks....Rubin.....16th Injuries SLU... Casey & Dotzler...OFTS Thames...Ques....2/26/25...undisclosed Loy... Moore....OFTS...leg 12/17 24 Keys to the game....No open 3P shots for Edwards and Dawson....Don't let Rubin plant himself under the basket. Protect the ball....play like you did against RI...energized for 40 min. WWN2D2W.....48/ 36 / 73...Hold Edwards and Dawson to 25 Pts....Keep Rubin under 50 FG%...2 blks and 5 rebs. Match them on team rebs ...beat them on the POTs. Bottom line... If we can play better than the last time....Loy will be Ramblin out of town with a loss.

This game was the definition of an even game...a game that can go either way and decided on the final shot. It wasn't pretty but I will take it. On the surface we missed the slash...42/33/ 40 ...not good BUT still a winning slash. Here is what the raw data looked like...SLU 23-55/ 9-27 / 2-5 ....DAV 22-58/ 8-28/ 4-6 which means the difference in the slash was one 3PM...that one 3PM is the same shot that gave us the extra FGM too....so the difference in the game was that one 3P shot minus the extra 2 FTs Dav made= 1 pt win. Just a few other notes here...bolded statements from original post... Mr. Davidson is Bailey. He is 18th ITN in scoring and leads the team in most other categories...beat him and beat Dav. Yes we did. Hold Bailey to 15 pts...Excellent ...we held him to 14...there is that extra point again. They also have a 3 shooter, Durkin, who we need to keep an eye on. Durkin...limit to two 3PM....Check...he had two 3PM...probably the reason he missed that last 3 was he had read The Wiz's forecast of no more than two 3PM. He found out you can't beat The Wiz. Beat them on Rebs...we did ...38-32...especially on Off rebs...our season grade on Off rebs is F...tonight's 9 rebs were good for a C+ ...those extra rebs led to 1 more basket ...an extra 2 or 3 pts...again a difference maker. Bottom line...The computer says "Show Me" you can win. The Bills are from MO (MOmentum)...keep it going...The Bills did show they can win ...and they did it with MOmemtum. The takeaway here is that this is a game we would have lost in Dec. The energy that powered the RI win was missing in the 1st half of this game. How bad was it ? We were going at our own record...the pace was at the dreaded 20 pt GW game rate..In the 2nd half the RI energy returned and powered us to a win (59/42/ 40). In the final 4 min 56 sec, Dav scored 3 pts to our 15. Did I mention we beat Dav at their place...a place where we had only won 2 of 6 games before tonight. Sweet win ...keep it going.

All these different computers and yet they all come up with around a 2 pt spread. That 's because everyone is using similar data. One difference in my report from the others is me. My computer reads what I write about the data plus what I see in the games...ie things that might not be on a stat sheet...and then calculates the spread. Kind of a "go see the kids play" and tell me what you see. For instance...let's look at McCottry's numbers including the RI game.... Season.....MPG..12.....PPG 3.2....slash 48/38/56.....rpg 2.7...stls/g 1...ast/gm 1 RI game....Min 24......PTs..13.....slash 67/67/100...rebs. 8.....stls 2....asts.....2 A computer would either not isolate this game or just consider it an outlier. This is not an outlier because everything went up dramatically. The other computers figure they will eventually pick it up if it becomes a factor over a series of games. My computer looks at it and thinks... he may be gelling. In any case ...we need to have a good game...ie make some shots and play with the same intensity we did against RI.

Let's start this thread with an excerpt from the RI post game analysis....Why?...Because it is relevant to the remaining games.... "....Well, this game gave me a chance to say some things I haven't had a chance to say this year...much less say for 1 game. ...For instance...We pounded them on the boards...by 13 (including no offense rebs by RI)...we crushed them on FGA ...by 19....we beat them on TOs by 3...we whipped them on bench pts by 11... and shut them out on 2nd chance pts...12-0....OMG...It was like The Bills were playing The Bills but the roles were reversed. What happened?...8 days of rest and we had 35 min plus 21 pts off the bench. We got off to better starts in both halves and played well in the final 5 min...a rested team plus depth.. 7 players with 11+ min. The extra energy led to more rebs and 2nd chance pts and opponent TOs. The Bills were battling the whole game...something we haven't seen in a while. ".......... The computer thinks we are a better team than Dav and if we play like the above paragraph...we win the game. Well then, why doesn't the computer favor us? Because the computer is from Missouri...it wants The Bills to "Show Me". The Bills haven't put together back to back wins in over a month. I had mentioned in an earlier thread we seem to be 1 player away. We have had a number of potential 1 more player types earlier this season...but most of them have disappeared. In the RI game the computer now sees that 1 more player...McCottry. ...He played 24 min....13pts...67/67/100...8 rebs...2 stls ...2 asst. Not bad. So why won't the machine favor us if that is the missing player? Because it is 1 game...again the computer wants to be shown. And the RI game wasn't an outlier...ie abnormal shooting percentages. The numbers showed that we missed the target slash by three 2s and our average 2 production by four 2s. So on top of a nice win we have more upside. Let's see what we are dealing with here... Game preview.... We remain as a B team... continuing to move sideways although our underlying numbers are starting to improve. The trend line is also starting to point upward ...the early indicator that things are improving. Dav, meanwhile, is a B- team that is difficult to beat at home. Mr. Davidson is Bailey. He is 18th ITN in scoring and leads the team in most other categories...beat him and beat Dav. They also have a 3 shooter, Durkin, who we need to keep an eye on. Offenses are close ...we have the edge on defense. Dav will not turn the ball over like RI so we have to protect the ball so we don't give them the game. Again , if we bring the same energy from last game ...we win. Top 4... Looks like 4 teams ( SLU, Loy, Day, St. J) fighting for 2 spots...With 4 games left we are projecting 2-1-1. (loss to Day). We need to win 3 games to get a top 4 spot so this is a big game especially since this game is showing at even. In case of a tie, we have the tie breakers. Winning this game would be a big step toward a double bye. Report Card.... Report Card change....1 up...1 dn...7 unchanged = even UP.....OFF....PPG....DEF....none Dn....OFF....none...DEF........3P%... ................SLU................Dav.....................SLU.........................Dav .......................OFF.........................................DEF.......... PPG...........C...................C.........................B-...........................B- FG%..........B+.................B-.........................A-............................C- 3P%..........C....................C+.......................B............................D FT%..........D-.................B........................................................ Reb............C+................D+........................D.............................C OFF Rebs = total Bills rebs...DEF Rebs = opp total reb Top 100 In The Nation SLU... 2P%....Team.........4th.......unch PPG.....Jimerson...90th....up Asst....Swope........78th.....dn 3PM......Jimerson...37th...up ..............Swope.......53rd...dn Reb....Anya............40th...dn FG%...Anya..........52nd ...dn 2P%....Anya.........38th....dn Dav... PPG...Bailey....18th Injuries SLU... Casey & Dotzler...OFTS Thames...Ques....2/22/25...undisclosed Dav None to report Keys to the game....Make some more 2s.. we need to finish these shots. Keep Bailey under control....keep TOs down. WWN2D2W.....48/ 36 / 73...Beat them on Rebs and FGAs...keep within 2 on TOs...Hold Bailey to 15 pts...Durkin...limit to two 3PM Bottom line...The computer says "Show Me" you can win. The Bills are from MO (MOmentum)...keep it going.

Under the current NCAA amateurism bylaws, professional athletes remain NCAA eligible so long as they were not paid more than actual and necessary expenses.Dec 3, 2024 As @thetorch pointed out above , this kid is probably getting room and board and maybe some travel expenses...so he would be eligible to play in the NCAA.

A nice game by The Bills....with an unusual occurrence...RI had a slash line of 46 / 46 / 46 / 53....in fact before the Rams made their final 4 Fts they were shooting 40% from the charity stripe. ...with a chance to make it a quad 46...like throwing a 12 with a pair of dice 4 times...but the Rams settled for 3. Well, this game gave me a chance to say some things I haven't had a chance to say this year...much less say for 1 game. ...For instance...We pounded them on the boards...by 13 (including no offense rebs by RI)...we crushed them on FGA ...by 19....we beat them on TOs by 3...we whipped them on bench pts...by 11 and shut them out on 2nd chance pts...12-0....OMG...It was like The Bills were playing The Bills but the roles were reversed. What happened?...8 days of rest and we had 35 min plus 21 pts off the bench. We got off to better starts in both halves and played well in the final 5 min...a rested team plus depth.. 7 players with 11+ min. The extra energy led to more rebs and 2nd chance pts and opponent TOs. The Bills were battling the whole game...something we haven't seen in a while. Let's keep it going.

Win 4 of the next 5 and we can lock down a top 4 position. The computer has us going 3-1-1. The even game is against Dav.

Game preview.... We continue to move sideways....We are still at B as is RI. Overall , the offenses are close to even, our defense is better but they have good 3Pt D. Their star player is Thomas. They have a 3P shooter in Green and they have a big boy in Brown (7ft) who blocks shots and sinks 2 ft bunnies. So not an easy task but if we make some shots and protect the ball we can win this game. Top 4... We are still in this but we have used up our margin of error. Here is the way it shakes out...VCU, GM , Day and SLU with St. J and Loy hanging in the wings. Here is what has to happen for us to secure 4th place.....Go 4-1 (loss to Day). This means we beat Loy when they come here. which will even them up with us....after that we have the tie breakers with Loy and St. J....we finish 11-7 and get the double bye. Winning 4 will not be easy but the computer says it is doable. Our fate is in our hands ...we just need to do it. Report Card.... Report Card change....3 up...1 dn...5 unchanged = +2...this is a promising sign UP.....OFF....3P...FT....DEF....Reb Dn....OFF....none...DEF........3P%...this has slipped a bit in the last couple of weeks but is still good ................SLU................RI.................SLU........................RI ...........................OFF...........................................DEF.......... PPG...........C-..................B.........................B-...........................D+ FG%..........B+.................B.........................A-............................B 3P%..........C....................C+.......................B+...........................A FT%..........D-.................D+........................................................ Reb............C+................B+........................D.............................D OFF Rebs = total Bills rebs...DEF Rebs = opp total reb Top 100 In The Nation SLU... 2P%....Team.........4th.......dn Asst....Swope........50th.....up 3PM......Jimerson...49th...up ..............Swope.......50th...dn Reb....Anya............33rd...dn FG%...Anya..........52nd ...dn 2P%....Anya.........29th....up RI... PPG...Thomas...68th Asst....Thomas....20th Rebs...Fuchs.....82nd FG%...Brown....14th Stls...Thomas....22nd Blks...Brown...42nd Injuries... SLU... Casey & Dotzler...OFTS Thames...Ques....2/15/25...undisclosed RI None to report Keys to the game....Get off to a good start in both halves and play the last 5 min strong....Make some 3s... WWN2D2W..... Target slash 48/36/73......keep them under 70 pts...Beat them with POTs (Points Off Turnovers )....Rebs even...Keep Thomas at 14 pts....Green at one 3PM and Brown at 1 blk and 6pts...Match them in FGAs. Bottom line... Let's not be sheepish about this game ....be aggressive and beat the Rams.

A couple of points of information here .... All the players on this list have 5 or 6 years. No player's final year is before 2022. With that said, it is still an impressive stat.

Top 37 and climbing... 37 LaceDarius Dunn 388 2008 2011 Baylor Gibson Jimerson 388 2020 2025 Saint Louis 39 Jordan Howard 386 2015 2018 Central Arkansas 40 Jared Brownridge 385 2014 2017 Santa Clara 41 Carl Pierre 383 2018 2022 Rice In addition to the all time 3PM list , I have added a 2nd category that GJ just entered...all time total points...TOPO...TOtal POints. 235 Gibson Jimerson 2271 2020 2025 Saint Louis 236 Eric Brown 2270 1986 1989 Miami (FL) 237 Juan Dixon 2269 1999 2002 Maryland 238 Bubba Wells 2267 1994 1997 Austin Peay 239 Jerrick Harding 2266 2017 2020 Weber State 240 Steve Smith 2263 1988 1991 Michigan State 241 Trevon Bluiett 2261 2015 2018 Xavier 242 Trayce Jackson-Davis 2258 2020 2023 Indiana 243 Andre Emmett 2256 2001 2004 Texas Tech Mouse McFadden 2256 1986 1989 Cleveland State 245 Malcolm Delaney 2255 2008 2011 Virginia Tech 246 Chris Davis 2254 1999 2003 North Texas 247 Myles Powell 2252 2017 2020 Seton Hall 248 K.J. Williams 2250 2019 2023 Louisiana State 249 Ernie Grunfeld 2249 1974 1977 Tennessee 250 Chris Monroe 2248 2000 2003 George Washington Isaac Spencer 2248 1998 2001 Murray State

Another one we should have won slipped away. The good news was that we out rebounded them.... Came within 1 on FGA So what went wrong ? Shooting ...our shooting and their shooting. 2 Loy players each shot 67% from the arc. Generally, if you shoot above 38% , it is considered an A+....They had together an extra five 3s...15 extra pts....on our side of the ledger, here is our target slash...48/36/73...and here is the actual...42/ 38 / 83. We got 2 of 3 which is great because we have been struggling from the arc and shooting F+ from the FT line. So the problem is with the 1st number...breaking that down further ...we shot 46% from 2... What is especially painfully about that number is we average over 60% a game from 2. We are 2nd in the nation in 2P%...it is what we do best....we are missing four 2s from an average night. We make those 2s and we make not only our 2P average but our target slash too....Missing 8pts. In the last 2 games there have been 3 players who all have shot 67% from 3. And we are not talking about 2of 3 stuff. We are talking about 18-27....done by players who have averaged 32.7% from the arc....kind of like throwing a 12 at a crap table...3 times in a row. Other areas...Our old friend TOs...More specifically, POTs...we lost this battle 15 to 7pts....and many of these TOs were careless.... gave away an extra 8 pts...also we can't over look the blocks... 7 of their 8 blks came from 2 players , the block brothers ...who average 3 /gm combined. Whether you want to figure it on the 8 blocks or the difference in blocks , we gave up 3-5 baskets...6-8pts. I will let you mix and match the above extra pts to figure out the many ways we could have won. Bottom line...We should have won this game. I guess Loyola lived up to their name tonight...LUC...They were certainly LUC-key.

W 1 4 O O 14 Win 1 4 Otis On 14 (Feb)

12 victories should take 4th place. The computer is showing 3-1-2 right now with 2 games as tossups at this point...so 5 more wins are possible.

Strategy for the rest of the season......just win the next game...

He is a Top 40 now... 40 Gibson Jimerson 383 2020 2025 Saint Louis Carl Pierre 383 2018 2022 Rice 42 Bryce Brown 382 2016 2019 Auburn Desmond Cambridge 382 2018 2023 Arizona State

Just 1 shot away from a win (and the exact spread). Sometimes you ask yourself ...how could we lose that game? If you are one of those people then check the post game review on the GM spread thread to find out how that happened. The Bills continue to move sideways on their base line as once again we did pretty much what we were supposed to do to the top ranked team. We didn't win but we came within 1 shot of the shot of the 1st place team. As I pointed out in an earlier thread, we peaked after the 1st St. J game and have been moving sideways since. What is also happening is the trend line is also moving sideways now. The good news is that it is still above the base line which means we still have upside/ unrealized potential. If we don't start playing a little better and realize that upside potential it will start to fade and we will remain at this level going forward...ie win one, lose one mode. One of the issues keeping us from realizing that potential is lack of depth. When you have 5 players playing most of the minutes , this leads to fatigue. Not only during the game but during the season as it progresses. That fatigue can lead to missed shots that you normally make...unforced errors/careless passes or TOs ...loss of focus. And finally it can keep you from reaching your potential. The 2 lines are still apart (don't cross the streams) so there is still upside left but we need to start moving up again by exceeding the spreads. Game preview.... We come into this game as a B team...Loy is a B-. The offenses are pretty even but we have the advantage on defense. This should be another close, down to the wire, low scoring, defensive struggle. We need to make shots (target slash) and keep the FGAs close to even (within a few). Rubin (6' 10") is their planter. He plants himself under the basket and sinks bunnies. On the other end, he plants himself and swats away shots. Don't give him free reign at either end. If we do what we are supposed to do (see WWN2D2W), we can win this game. Top 4... VCU, GM, SLU, Day, St. J....as mentioned in the last thread , we are in a 3 team race for 3rd and 4th place. We move on to another crucial game in trying to secure a top 4 spot. Crucial again because Loy is right on our heals. A win would be a blow to their top 4 hopes and put us a step closer to a double bye. Report Card.... Report Card change....2 up...3 dn...4 unchanged = -1 UP.....OFF....Reb....DEF....FG% Dn....OFF....3P%....FT%...DEF........3P% ................SLU................Loy.................SLU........................Loy ...........................OFF...........................................DEF.......... PPG...........C-..................C-.......................B-............................B FG%..........B+.................B.........................A-............................B- 3P%..........C-..................B-.......................A-.............................C+ FT%..........F+.................F+........................................................ Reb............C+................C-........................D-.............................B+ OFF Rebs = total Bills rebs...DEF Rebs = opp total reb Top 100 In The Nation SLU... 2P%....Team.........2nd.....up...tied with 'Bama the # 1 scoring team ITN...we are in good company here Asst....Swope........73rd...dn 3PM......Jimerson...62nd...dn ..............Swope.......42nd...up Reb....Anya............31st...up FG%...Anya..........37th ...up 2P%....Anya.........37th...up Loy... 2P%...Rubin......7th FG%...Rubin...19th Blks...Rubin....18th 3P%...Edwards...75th Injuries... SLU... Casey & Dotzler...OFTS Thames...Ques....2/12/25...undisclosed GM Moore...G...OFTS...12/17 24/... Leg Keys to the game....Even up FGAs...make 3s WWN2D2W..... Target slash 48/36/73......keep them under 70 pts...Beat them with POTs (Points Off Turnovers )....out reb them by 1...Hold Watson, Edwards and Dawson to 30 pts combined...Hold Rubin to 6 pts and 1 blk...Match them in FGAs. Bottom line....Valentines Day......Wouldn't you LOVE to ramble to a win.

Tough loss...so many chances to win. The take away tonight is that if GM is the best team in the A10, there isn't anyone in the conference we cant beat. We went toe to toe with them. The difference between the 2 teams is that Mason played at 100% ....their full potential...we didn't ...we could have played better. There was no more upside with GM...we still had more untapped potential ...and yet we still took them to OT. Before we review the game, let's first look at a GM anomaly. This guy Newton . He turned out to be a real fig. He scores 27 pts. He averages 6.6 pts/gm...more than quadruples his average night. He does this by going 8-12 from the arc... shooting 67%. This is a guy who was shooting 27% in conference play from the arc. A guy who had nine 3PM for all A10 games. You could give this guy a basketball and have him go out on a court by himself and tell him to shoot twelve 3PA and it is unlikely he would make 8. We got figged by a Newton. But even with the anomaly, we could have still won this game...in regulation. Let's look at the stats...Bolded phrases from the original post... So in this game which could turn into a low scoring defensive battle the Pts Off TOs becomes an important stat for us to win. ..We lost this stat...14-8pts...the difference between winning and losing. In actual TOs, it turned out to be GM 5...SLU 14....But it is not just the extra 9 possessions they had but the extra 9 possessions we didn't have. The other stat that will affect the outcome of the game will be the mystery stat...3 pt shooting...will it show up (36%)? If it does it could mean a W...Another statement that turned out to be true. At 31% we were two 3P shots short of 36%...enough for victory. In fact had we made those 2 shots we also would have made the target FG% of 48. Unfortunately Jimerson had an off night shooting 18% ...had he made 2 more 3s, he and the team both would have had 36%. But it certainly wasn't his fault...coming off the ankle injury ...he had little practice and probably wasn't 100%...YET he played all 45 min of the game....the only player on either team to do that. the real secret for the Bills in this game and all the remaining games will be to limit opponent possessions. We may be the better team most of the time but if we keep giving the other team extra shots , we lose. ..We lost the FGA 68-62...better than recent games but in a 2P OT game ...6 is a difference maker. Score 70...Stay within 3 rebs (we actually beat them by 7...we need to do this all the time ...play aggressive)...Hold Haynes and Maddox to 21 pts (they actually scored 24 but that was good when you add in OT)....These statements are why we were able to stay with them all the way through OT. Coach Schertz told the team after the game that 1 of 2 things happens after a game like this one....1) either a team folds up and the season is over or 2) the team learns, grows and toughens up to have a successful season. I am betting on #2

Jimerson is playing

Just an add on to your post. Mason's SOS is a B- as is VCU. The Bills are showing the 2nd toughest schedule so far with a B. St. J and Rich also have Bs. Highest SOS goes to Day with a B+. The rest of the A10 comes in at B- with the exception of GW which is lagging at C-.

We start with a tale of 2 Joeys. We began the season with promise but needed to come together as a team. After some ups and downs in the OOC schedule we seemed to gel at the first St. J game. With the win over St. J, we were a B team poised to take the next step to B+. Since then we have moved sideways. We are caught between 2 Joeys...game 1 Joey and game 2 Joey. Our record after Joey 1 is 5-4...the last 6 games (including the 2nd Joey) we have been in an alternating pattern of win /loss ...3-3...W L W L W L. If the pattern holds ...next up should be a win. But it's not just the pattern, it's the data too which shows we could be ripe for a win. The computer didn't punish us because of the bigger than expected spread against SJ. It saw that with less than 5 min to go in the game we were within the spread ( 4pts ) and we had done so while Jimerson was missing. So it figured we did what we were supposed to do and again moved us sideways in our ranking. Let's take a look at the upcoming GM game. Game preview.... First , let's deal with the elephant in the room..... GM defense. We are not just talking about the best defense in the A10 but one of the best defenses in the nation (see Report Card below). The counter is we have a better offense. If it shows up and makes some shots we have a chance to win....a 50.75%. This was a strange data set....the computer has us winning by 1 but qualified it and said we either will win in a close one or get bombed (lose by 10+)...The computer chose that we win a close one. It liked that we beat St. J in TOs..a stat we have been having a problem with recently. But it isn't just the quantity of TOs but the quality of TOs....There are good TOs and bad TOs. A good TO is you give the ball up and there is no score on it ...a bad TO is you give it up and the opp scores. In the St. J game we won the TO battle BUT lost the Pts off TOs. So in this game which could turn into a low scoring defensive battle the Pts Off TOs becomes an important stat for us to win. The other stat that will affect the out come of the game will be the mystery stat...3 pt shooting...will it show up (36%)? If it does it could mean a W. As I mentioned in the GDT (most recent St. J game...post game analysis), the real secret for the Bills in this game and all the remaining games will be to limit opponent possessions. When the possessions are close, we usually win the game. We are not talking about a few extra possessions..... in the losses we have had , the other team has had 50-100% more FGAs.... Unacceptable.... For all the talk about TOs and Rebs...FGAs are the real issue. We may be the better team most of the time but if we keep giving the other team extra shots , we lose. Can we win? ...yes if we don't give them extra shots...this concept is especially important when you are playing one of the top defensive teams ITN. Top 4... This week's race is projecting VCU, GM, SLU and Day as the top 4.... with St. J in the wings if someone falters. While this has been predicted for a few threads the difference is Day has faltered a bit and St. J is tied for 4th. It is a 3 team race for 3rd and 4th in the A10. While this is an important game from a stand point of staying in the top 4 , this game takes on additional significance as a tie breaker for the 4th spot in the A-10. Not only if we would tie with Mason but also if we tie with anyone else for 4th, this likely would be the game used to determine who finishes 4th. The good news is we are in 3rd and will stay there if we win. We are still a B team. The computer still thinks we need to get to B+ to stay in the top 4 and have a chance to win the A10 tourney. The computer also thinks that 12-6 will take the 4th spot. A team might be able to slip in with an 11-7 but 12 wins is more of a sure thing. Let's take a look at the Report Card and see what's happening. Report Card.... Report Card change....0 up...2 dn...7 unchanged = -2...overall we are still moving sideways but the numbers are starting to erode a bit. UP.....OFF....none....DEF....none Dn....OFF....FG%...DEF........PPG ................SLU................GM.................SLU........................GM ...........................OFF...........................................DEF.......... PPG...........C-..................D+.......................B-............................A+...9th ITN FG%..........B+.................B.........................B+...........................A+...3rd ITN 3P%..........C...................C..........................A..............................A+...12th ITN FT%..........D-.................D+........................................................ Reb............C..................A-........................D-..............................A- OFF Rebs = total Bills rebs...DEF Rebs = opp total reb Top 100 In The Nation SLU... 2P%....Team.........4th.....dn Asst....Swope........69th...up 3PM......Jimerson...52nd...dn ..............Swope.......49th...dn Reb....Anya............36th...dn FG%...Anya..........54th ...up 2P%....Anya.........39th...up 3P%...Jimerson...100th...unch GM... FG%...Hayes ...74th Injuries... SLU... Casey & Dotzler...OFTS Thames...Ques....2/4...undisclosed Jimerson is listed unofficially as day to day GM None Keys to the game...Make some 3s and keep the FGA close...keep TOs down WWN2D2W..... Target slash 48/36/73......score 70 pts...Beat them with POTs (preferably long handled ones...Points Off Turnovers )...Stay within 3 rebs...Hold Haynes and Maddox to 21 pts Bottom line...Let's jar Mason with a victory.

I did say that defending the 3 was one of our strong points. Coming into the St. J game we had an A in 3P defense....24th in the nation....better than 340 other D1 teams. There was a problem with 3s but it wasn't 3P defense. It was that we shot only 20% from the arc AND we gave them too many chances. ...ie twice as many shots...31 to our 15. ..caused by too many TOs and rebounds....but not caused by poor 3 defense. If you cut the St. J 3P stats in half but use the same shooting %...5.5/15.5=35.5% plus add 2.5 more 3PM made to bring The Bills up to a normal shooting night on 3s...5.5/ 15= 36.7%. ..(note these numbers are similar to the numbers I use in the target slash) you have a swing of 8 three pt shots or a difference of 24 pts ...ie we win the game easy. To use a baseball analogy...If you are batting 200 (20%) as a team you aren't going to win many games. Likewise, if you are going to give the other team 6 strikes on every at bat ( twice as many chances) you again will not have many wins. If you are batting (shooting) poorly or you are giving the other team twice as many chances (strikes or 3PA) it doesn't matter what kind of defense you are playing...it is too much to overcome. Shoot better from the arc + cut down on the other teams possessions (reduce TOs and opp rebs)= more wins

There are many paths to the same destination. As you stated , having more rebounds would would have closed the FGA gap. As would having less TOs. When the Bills are favored to win all they need to do is play their game...do what they should be able to do and they will win. If the other team is favored they need to do what they do plus another variable a little better....a better variable they can do but don't always do. In this case with St. J favored...we needed to do what we always do plus something else a little better. Instead , 3P shooting was weak . So even though TOs were fixed in this game the weak 3P shooting still allowed St. J be favored. Throw in a gap in the rebounding and you have a double digit loss. The bucket will hold water if you fix the leak unless other leaks develop....the summation of The Bills season so far.

Tough loss... This game was over with about 5 min left in the half...The FIRST HALF. We had a 10 pt lead at that time but from then on...we just faded away. The story of this game was 3 pt shooting...SJ 36%...SLU 20%...Just like you can't win with 20 TOs, you can't win with 20% 3P shooting. They had an extra eight 3PM....24 pts more...BALL GAME. We had only one 3PM in the final 25 min of the game. The sad thing is , after struggling for a few games with TOs, we had a good night protecting the ball (11). We actually beat St. J in the TO battle (12). Like in most sports , you have to do more than 1 thing right at a time to win. ...Low TOs and shoot 3s. We can do both ...now we just have to do them together.