The Wiz

If you read my earlier spread thread post, I show ISU winning today's game by 6. If they win, they will play Cinn. ISU would be favored in that game too. But the cumulative probability of winning both games is only 42%. So a 58% chance of mid week announcement. No one from the athletic department called me, so here is how it probably went down. Hey, ISU has 2 games this week. What happens if they lose one of those games. We better give the band a couple of days notice to make sure someone shows up. If ISU loses today, let's make it for Tues or Wed. If they lose on Tues or Wed , we can make it on Wed or Thur. What happens if ISU wins both games? Then tell the band we were just kidding ...and to be ready for Wed through Fri of next week ...for sure.

Post season rules for SLU followers..... Rule #1....Nothing happens till ISU loses Rule #2....What about alternative plans and speculation...always follow Rule #1

A nice win for ISU. Next up is Minn at 1PM on Sun (ESPN2)...A tad better than SMU but a game ISU should win. The team most likely to win overall is Wake Forest....In fact the computer is showing a matchup with Wake and ISU. But because they are on the other side of the bracket that wouldn't happen till April 4 in the Championship game....not something that most Bills fans want to hear. Well at least the TV coverage will be better so that Bills fans can watch...Bills 2 or Bills too or Bills East or just plain BS ( Bills -Sycamores)

I will have to partially disagree with you on this. Have you ever seen a maiden horse race...10 horses that have never raced before yet there is a favorite and an finishing order for each horse even though there is no public data. Again, there can be surprises but there can be surprises even with data. There are algorithms for everything ....see my preseason forecast when there isn't any real data but the computer uses a Bayesian model to forecast what is going to happen. In the A-10 this year, it was pretty spot on when it said that 9 teams would be bunched together at the top and pretty much had that correct. While 1 game here or there might change the order...at the end of the season their was a huge gap between the haves and the have nots (9th and 10th place in the A-10) . The computer knew that at the 8th game of the season the BIlls were doomed for the season. You could say everybody knew that after a 40 point drubbing by SIU. But the computer made that forecast in early Nov before any games had been played. Even in the game last night with all the uncertainty , the computer had a forecast that said ISU would win by 6-8pts ...I consider a win by ISU by 1-3 over the spread a pretty good forecast. While SMU and ISU have never played , the computer looked at each game that each team had played this season and then connected the data dots of the other 360 teams to the current teams through a series of simulations. There is even a "luck" factor...when things seem "even" a team always seems to win (or lose). The computer thinks that The Bills luck is about to change .

Just a quick review before we get to the main stuff.... TO s were equal at 10...which mean we move on to the next 2 categories...FG%...ISU won that 55% to 48%....and rebs ...36-31 won that too...which gives you an 80% chance to win ..in this case 100%....Interestingly ISU trailed most of the game in score and TOs...but once the TOs turned around the score did too. Some things never change. The important take away in this game was the uncertainty going in....Coach and players in a no man's land...a lot of distracting turmoil,...who will be where next year, .... what about the fans especially since it is a home game...portal questions...As a result there was a great deal of uncertainty...this could easily have been a loss. Add the fact that they were down through the 1st 3 quarters ...this outcome bodes well for the Coach, the players and The Bills. CJS was able to rally the troops...change things up at half time......get the team back on track...speaks volumes about the Coach and the players....a sign of a winning attitude. As far as the computer is concerned, it was looking for ISU to win by 6-8 pts and they pretty much came in on target. It answered the computer's main question...can the team handle the non basketball distractions. The answer was yes and as a result the machine feels more confident about future NIT predictions regarding ISU. While the team could have easily called it a season and moved on to the next phase, they finished the job at hand....again this bodes well for The Bills. While I am anxious for the team to start doing Billiken things, it was fun to watch and see what a team that knows how to win looks like. The computer also thinks there is a good chance we may have to wait till April to get a final answer. Buckle up and enjoy the ride...

Here is an update.... ISU over SMU by 6 A lot has happened in a couple of days....a lot of distractions...not always quantifiable . In addition to the distraction, there is the question if home field will be affected. SMU however is one of the weakest teams in the NIT. In the end, ISU is the better team and should still win this game.

1.86.... Usually 2.6 or higher is great 2 is good The top 5 assist people this year range from about 2.5 to 2.75 Yuri came in at 2.23. This is not one of my favorite stats...You could be a great passer generating lots of assists and you could be bad at holding onto the ball which has nothing to do with passing. Bottom line ...He was doing better all around and had potential to be something in the coming years. He may have left because he feared the new coach would bring in new guards. Again, as I pointed out in an earlier post, it usually makes sense to meet the new guy and see what the situation is before you give up your roster spot and scholarship.

I agree on the LOL....If you can shoot 42.6% you come in at #101 out of 5522 D1 players. More like a million dollars a dozen.

Ah...you have been reading my stuff.... Yes this was the season killer....Regular TOs weren't bad...#170....C ...But it was the opponent TOs that was the crusher...330...F ....It was the TO differential ...the one stat that could trigger a loss. When we lost the TO battle there was about an 80% chance we would lose the game. We did OK protecting the ball but we weren't very good at forcing TOs. It all ties together...we were great at shooting 3s ...but not protecting against them...We protected the ball ok but didn't force TOs enough....Opp rebs not good....It was like we were going through the motions but were a step late. When we didn't have the ball we were not very good. This season would have been very upsetting to Majerus. With an average defense we would have been good.

I certainly don't want to question @Cowboy II 's numbers but I am showing Pomeroy at 329 on 3P% defense. Perhaps his number of 312 was from earlier in the season. But even if the times are in sync data sources can differ...KenPom uses STATS Perform for his database...generally pretty good but their are glitches from time to time... sometimes their are rounding differences... sometimes mistakes. One small mistake not corrected can feed into the data all season. I use Sports Direct as one of my sources( the word source is plural ...that is how you can sometimes spot errors by cross checking)...they have live data...ie the data is updated as soon as a game is completed and they have been pretty accurate over the years. And of course, there is the NCAA which is one of the most widely used sources because...well because they are the NCAA and they say so. Unfortunately, their data base uses 351 teams...there are currently 362 teams. There were 351 teams as recently as 2017-18 and they haven't bothered to update their data program since. And why should they ...things seem to be working well...there haven't been many changes to college basketball since then and if things get askew we can always "fix" things. You gotta love the NCAA...no matter what you say about them at least they are consistent.....in their inconsistency. To get back to the original question which was Bills 3P% defense...I have the Bills finishing their season at #337 ...they had been as low as 351. That was when they recorded an F-. That 337 isn't final but there are no 338+ teams playing now and the Bills 3P%D is not going to get worse. Hopefully, are days of 300+ offense or defense are over .

To your point...Player thinking ...do well and I can go with Coach

I never thought I would be doing spread threads on the NIT particularly if the Bills weren't in it. But in light of the fact that these games do affect the Bills Nation ...here we go. These will not be full analytical threads like the regular Bills threads...just something so you can keep your finger on the pulse (or take your own pulse). Unfortunately, the computer doesn't think this will be over quickly. In a series of simulations, the program showed that ISU will go at least till Mar 26-27 and probably till the first week in April. Not the news most Bills fans want to hear. But that's what happens when you are placed in the wrong tournament...When you wind up in a lower Tourney , chances are you are going to do pretty well. The only early off ramp is a game on Mar 26-27 when they face a tough Cinn team. Cincy is another snubbed team (37 NET...64% C2D). The computer gives that game to ISU because of the home field advantage...but thinks the game will be close. Going forward to Apr 2 ..Nova has a chance to knock off ISU but again a close game with ISU now showing a 1 pt advantage. And then there is the final game...right now the computer gives Wake Forest the championship as it feels that Wake is the best team in the NIT and consequently the most snubbed. In this game, ISU comes in as a B+ team...SMU as a B. Overall ranking for SMU would probably be similar to VCU (another participant ...but only a small chance they would meet). As you can see by the spread, the computer expects that ISU will be able to handle SMU. But this is the NIT and different teams handle this tourney in different ways that will not show up in the data. Some teams will want to prove themselves...show the NCAA that they were misplaced. For other teams, the players are thinking about the NIL, the portal or where or who they will be playing for next season. Word is that the Bills have some sort of deal...but the deal isn't done until it is done AND the longer this drags out the more chance there is that something could go wrong, Bottom line.... The waiting can be painful Sometimes it hurts End the NIT quickly And get onboard with Schertz

Wait...are you saying he was "in sincere"?

Everything on my side went pretty much as expected...The only mini surprise was not that the Committee picked an extra A-10 team (after all there were 6 extra openings with the shun)...but who they picked ...St. J. The mini snub was UMass. I usually only list the teams that have a good chance of getting in (at least 50%) but with exit of 6 teams there was a need to drop into the 40s. Pre selection I had UMass at 45%...also St. B and St. J at 40%. After the exodus...UMass moved to 50% and St. B and St. J. came in at 46%. Again you could make the argument that UMass finished at 11-7 and that the Bonnies tied St. J at 9-9. Of course, if you have been reading my stuff, you understand at this point it is not about data or numbers ...it is about the Committee....or as the computer would say ...Humans...$%^*)(*&!!!

Possibly...it would have eliminated 1 bid stealer and possibly changed the other NET numbers just enough for ISU to get in.. And now the official NCAA statement as to what happened.... in the previous 3 years there have been 2 bid stealers (0.67/yr) ...this year alone there have been 5 ...NCAA translation...just a freak happening.... Plus ISU played a weak OOC schedule...NCAA translation...not our fault, ISU should have scheduled better. Bottom line ...You have a computer system (NET) that is figuring everything in and comes up with an overall rating for ISU of #29 out of 362 teams....yet somehow a miracle happens and #54 UVA gets in...Question....When you look at NET results which is more important ...SOS or the overall rating which takes in SOS plus all the other data and then compares ISU to UVA plus 360 other teams ...the answer seems clear until the humans arrive then the other factors start to plug in...P5 vs mid major....ACC vs MVC...UVA vs ISU. Hello Mid major...I am from the NCAA and I am here to help you....the computer says run.

Some interesting observations by the computer... It thought that Day would be punished for an early exit in the A-10 tourney...didn't happen...it got the 7th seed like the computer had originally projected...Computer says you can't trust humans. As @HoosierPalmentioned above ISU becomes the highest NET team to not make it. Speaking of ISU a few days ago in the Coach search discussion thread , there was a question about whether an ISU coach would be able to make it in the A10. So I ran some simulations which showed ISU would have finished 2nd this year in the A10.... Now that the bracket info has been fed in , the computer shows that the data reason that ISU didn't make it was there were some unexpected teams that did. The computer speculates that the Duq bid was one of those . Finishing out the simulation from above... had ISU been in the A10 they would have won the tourney( beating Duq by 3) and been the auto bid for the Atlantic 10.....Day and ISU would have both been Dancing....Can we use this info in coach recruiting? That was the data side...the human side shows that ISU was snubbed...or as the NCAA would say ....we are here to correct NET oversights ...we "fix" things and make them right.....the computer response to "fixing" things... *^#(*^%)(@#^^?% !!!!

NIT bid chances 1 team...62-74% 2 teams ..41-49% 3 teams ...30% 0 teams...15%

Depends on who the other 3 teams are....follow the money

The NIT percentages listed above are for each team separately ...the chances of those 4 all getting in are only about 16%.

I think the computer's thinking is that if ISU don't get an at large bid they will be in the first 4 out and get an NIT auto bid.

I am showing ISU at 52% C2D....they are truly at the mercy of the Committee ...this is one where Rod Serling will make the decision....which means the NET will not be the final determining factor.....99% NIT A-10... The Dance Dayton...This is one the Committee would like to punish a little...for leaving the A-10 tourney a bit early...78% chance to make it...8-10th seed Cusp...Duq and VCU...game spread is even...winner Dances....loser see below NIT VCU....74% Rich....66% Loy....62% Duq...50% A quick note ...When looking at the NIT, you have to realize this is a consolation tournament for ALL conferences...The Committee first decides who did we snub for the Dance and puts those in...uses a little NET for the next bunch and then "fixes" things for the final few...the ones that should have been deserving.

To your point...take an 8th place team with a 9-9 record...should a team like that be Dancing?...The answer is yes, if the team is Texas...almost a lock to get in. The argument that the NET and the Committee would make is, it is harder to finish 8th in the B12 than to finish 2nd in the A10. This year it worked out pretty nice for the A-10 but most years not so much....btw any extra mid major bids... the Committee will "fix" using the seeding system. And whether people agree with any of this doesn't matter....that is the way the system(computer and people) is set up.

The math is simple...hire the best coach available. Speaking of math...Ind St Chance 2 Dance today 54%...dn 2% from yesterday Speaking of Ind St...here is their report card...please note they have one of the best offenses if not the best offense ITN. ....................Off...................Def PPG.....A+ 8th ITN.............C FG%.....A+ 3rd ITN.............C+ 3P%......A+ 10th ITN...........B- FT%.......A+ 3rd ITN............ Reb........C+...........................A

The computer is rarely wrong....sometimes real life just has to catch up....or as the computer would say...you are not feeding me enough data.

Here is what I have for post season A-10 play NCAA...Day ...76%....8th or 9th seed One of the following will get the auto bid....VCU....25.6%....Duq...25.3%....St. B...24.9%...St. J...24.6% Of note....the chances of picking all 4 under dogs in yesterday's A10 tourney were about 60-1. Also for those tracking Indiana St...they have a 56% chance to get a Dance bid