The Wiz's Preseason Billiken Review for 24-25

[The Wiz]

As you will note from the above title , I have changed from Preseason Forecast to Preseason review. For those that have followed me over the years, you know that a key game for me is the 8th Div 1 game of the season. It is after that game that I not only  have enough information to make game forecasts but season forecasts. This year and going forward , I will make my A10 forecast as well as Bills season forecasts after the 8th Div 1 game (Chi St Dec 8th). In the meantime, I will continue to show spreads using Bayesian  models transitioning into real data for the 1st 8 D1 games....e.g. ..after 2 games 25% real data mixed with the Bayesian model....after 6 games 75% real data mixed with the Bayesian forecast.

Again , this is how I have it done it informally over the years but I would still put out a Preseason A10 forecast along with hypothetical Bills data before the season.  But as we all know , things have changed.   There was more movement of players and personnel in this last off season , than any other time in CB history. Trying to forecast an outcome in this environment without real data is folly. But there will always be those who will forecast in great detail without real data.  Even the NCAA waits now till the end of Dec before they start National rankings.

 This will be one of the most interesting seasons in Bills basketball history. I think a good comparison would be the start of the Majerus reign.  A winning coach comes in and turns the Bills around. Of course , both Majerus and Schertz (at ISU... had rocky first seasons....RM...Sit 1 and Schertz starting from scratch at ISU). The difference for Schertz at SLU this year is... The Bills have one of the most experienced teams in the country. And with the AD , donors and the fans all in the same corner  these factors should bode well for the team this year. Winning coaches gonna win.

This isn't to say there won't be some bumps along the way. This team like all teams will have to gel. It will take time.  Even the 3 players returning are like new players coming in as this is a whole new system.

 The success of this team will be based on how quickly this team will gel.  While exhibition games aren't very predictive, I was encouraged to see us go from 16 TOs in the 1st exhibition game to just 9.  Sixteen means you are doing something wrong....9 means you are doing something right. This team will live or die by its 3 pt shooting. It needs to be a little better...about 3/8...37.5%.   We are a little below that now but about right for this time of year as the shooting will improve.  

One concern I have is the schedule.  Not the same concern every one else has (weak OOC overall) but about the structure and timing of games.  If you lop off the top part of the schedule and start it on Nov 25 with Qpac and then put the top part at the end of the OOC schedule we would have a nicely balanced schedule that would proceed in an orderly  way. But instead of dipping our toe into the shallow end of the pool, we are diving into the deep end.  Those first 3 D1 games are games you would normally play in Dec.  This could go 3 ways.  We could 1.. have some unpleasant bumps or 2.. we could gel quicker and do well or  3..both could happen. I am sure Coach is hoping for #2 as we all are.

Finally, I want to deal with some things that the computer doesn't know how to deal with because it really doesn't understand...which is why it is called artificial intelligence.  First there is the gel... if that doesn't confuse the computer ...it certainly does when I make it a verb...gelling. It thinks I am talking about a chilled see through dessert. The other item is chemistry. It wants to know what a science course has to do with basketball. Now that the machine is turned off , we can talk amongst ourselves.  Chemistry has everything to do with gelling. The good news is that in the early going it looks like the team has good chemistry. A tip o' the cap to Coach for melding those players quickly. The gelling is starting to happen.

Bottom line...If we gel quickly and can stay healthy good things can happen... watch this space after Dec 8th.

We win because we play together as a team.....John Havlicek