The Wiz Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 I debated whether to even start this thread. After finishing the OOC schedule, the A-10 has usually reached 2 important milestone.....#1....8 games....which means all teams have played enough games to create a valid sample size...and give a more meaningful prediction.....#2...12 games....Enough data at this point to start to narrow down the ranges from 2 steps to 1 step...for example, if a team has a B+ after 8 games, their range going forward would be B- to A. After 12 games ...if their the grade was still B+ ...the range will have narrowed to B to A-. Also after the 12 games, you would have less bunching. Teams haven't played enough to separate. In the A-10, after the OOC, only 5 of the 14 have reached the 8 game level...none the 12 game limit. Welcome to 2020...where nothing quite works out right. With that said, I have decided to proceed with the forecast because it does still provide some valuable info. The Bills are one of the few teams with 8 games which means our A grade is "real". In addition ...we are the best team in the league. At this point, the best any other team can do is "equal" us. And finally, we are on track To Dance. The next step is for us to hold onto our grade of A for 4 more games (assuming no change to the schedule...that would be after the St, J game on Jan 9)... An A at that point would mean our downside would be around A- and give us a high probability to make The Madness. Here is what the A-10 looks like at this point... The Bills........A........... Dav................B+........ Day................B+......S3 RI....................B+..........................B Rich...............B+ St. B...............B+......VS3 VCU................B+...........................A- Duq.................B-.......VS3 UMass............B-........VS3 St. J................C..........S3...............C- GM..................C-.........S3 LaS..................C-.........S3 GW....................D+.......S3..............D- Ford,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,D.........P Key........ S3= small sample size VS3= very small sample size P = predictive model ...no games played yet. 1st grade = Overall score...2nd grade = trending score ...if there is no 2nd grade then that means trending score is the same as overall score A- and above means you are on track to the Dance....B+ means you have a 1/3 chance to make it....not quite true in this case because 2 of the 6 haven't played 8 games yet....but for this example let's assume 6 B+ teams ...2 have the chance of making it ...2nd team most likely is VCU because of the trending and RI likely not . That leaves Dav, Day , Rich and St. B...of these 4... one more has a chance to Dance. Also of those last few teams remaining...2 would be on track for NIT Again, things will be more predictable after game 12 ....Jan 9 for the Bills..who knows for the rest of the league. That's all I got at this point with limited data. BuiltFordBills, Zink, CBFan and 1 other like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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