Monday RPI Review

[Bay Area Billiken]

Although we keep hearing that the RPI is only one tool

and really is not all that involved, I still am a

Doubting Thomas on that one. Year in and year out, the RPI seems to be followed closely, with about 3 predictable exceptions per year and no more than 5. The evidence is more than coincidental.

Per a pure following of the RPI, Bradley is the first

team out and in the NIT at 48. However, I think

Bradley has to win the MVC Tournament. Getting to the MVC

Championship Game and losing there might allow Bradley

to steal Missouri State's bid, like last year, but I

doubt it. It looks like the MVC is a 3 team league. I know the NCAA says it does not pick by conference.

SLU at 72 is in the NIT at this point. To make the

NCAA, SLU will probably have to win the A-10

Tournament. A late season run and winning even 2

games in the A-10 Tournament may not be enough for the Big Dance.

The A-10 could be a 1 team league if Xavier (RPI 36) wins

the A-10 Tournament, or it would be a 2 team league if

someone other than Xavier wins the A-10 Tournament, with X

getting an at-large bid.

Even all hallowed Duke ordinarily would be at risk

with that 5-6 ACC record. But this is Duke, and

Duke's RPI is still 17. So barring a complete

collapse down the stretch, the Dukies will be in.

The teams that are currently in the NCAA per the RPI

that might be out are Maryland (RPI 35, 4-6 ACC),

Arkansas (#37 RPI, 4-6 SEC), Michigan State (RPI 42,

4-6 Big 10), and Texas Tech (RPI 45,

4-6 Big XII). Purdue (RPI 40, 5-6 Big Ten) and

Florida State (29 RPI, 5-6 ACC) could also be at risk,

but if the NCAA takes Duke, it probably takes FSU too.

These can be replaced in the NCAA with Vanderbilt (49

RPI, 6-4 SEC), Notre Dame (51 RPI, 6-5 Big East),

Providence perhaps, but unlikely (52 RPI, 5-5 Big East), Texas (54

RPI, 7-3 Big XII), Michigan (59 RPI, 5-5 Big Ten),

Oklahoma (61 RPI, 6-4 Big XII), Syracuse (62 RPI, 6-5

Big East), and Louisville (73 RPI, 7-4 Big East).

Even Washington (74 RPI, 6-7 Pac Ten) is making a

move. And Iowa (RPI 81) is 6-5 in the Big Ten.

Usually an above .500 record in one of the BCS leagues

produces an NCAA bid.

I don't see the NCAA leaving out Big East schools like

Notre Dame, Syracuse, and Louisville if they finish

over .500 in the conference.

The Big Ten is in upheavel with only 3 locks: Ohio

State, Wisconsin, and Indiana. Purdue (RPI 40), Illinois (RPI 41),

Michigan State (RPI 42), Michigan, and Iowa are left to scrap

for perhaps 3 at large bids. It is hard to justify

having a Michigan State ahead of a Michigan, for

example. Call this the Big Ten Exception to the RPI.

Again, an above .500 finish in the Big Ten garners an

NCAA bid, and a .500 finish usually gets one.

On another note, the WCC regular season game of the year is tonight in Spokane: Santa Clara at Gonzaga (minus the suspended Heytvelt) for sole possession of first place. For the first time in

a long time, the Zags are being challenged in the WCC.

With an RPI of 55, the Zags are certainly no lock for

an NCAA bid if they don't win the WCC Tournament in Portland.

[Larry the Legend]

Bay Area,

Nice analysis. I do agree that in the BCS conferences, an above .500 league record will definitely be looked upon favorably come Selection Sunday. I think that once a team makes it to that point in the selection process, the selection committee will then look at the "other" factors which include: record in the last 10 games, away record, and the key wins and key losses. However, RPI in my opinion, is first and foremost when deciding on selecting an at-large team to even consider for a tournament bid. If you have an RPI team of 60 and one with a 40, I think the committee throws away the 60 and then "considers" the 40.

I think there is a lot of uncertaintly still around in most of the conferences as there are still plenty of big games left. Duke plays at Clemson and North Carolina. Those could both be losses and Duke will almost have no way of a .500 league record. But with an RPI so low (most likely under 25), do you leave them out? I wonder if any of your stat magicians know the lowest RPI school to not receive a bid?

[Bay Area Billiken]

Since 2000, the lowest RPI's to get snubbed were:

2006: Missouri State 21

Hofstra 30

2000: the then Southwest Missouri State 34

Thus, Missouri State has been left out in 2 of the 3 lowest RPI cases. What does that say about the NCAA Committee, the MVC, the BCS schools, etc.? Many think that a Sweet 16 team in Bradley walked away with Missouri State's NCAA bid last year when Bradley made but lost the MVC Tournament final.

[Bay Area Billiken]

In looking at last year's RPI, the following RPI's were left out of the NCAA:

21 Missouri State

30 Hofstra

39 Creighton

40 Cincinnati

43 St. Joseph's

47 Michigan

49 Maryland

The Missouri State situation, especially, and even Hofstra really stand out. Keeping out a school with an RPI of 21 was unprecedented.

Couple that with SMS with an RPI of 34 getting snubbed in 2000.

[Pistol]

There's no way MSU deserved to get in the NCAA tournament last year. It may have been unprecedented to leave a 21 RPI team out, but anyone could see that the number was fool's gold. The best non-con teams they played were Arkansas (and lost) and UWM (late in the conference season, and won). The selection committee would have been idiots to take them, and would have told every mid major in the nation that they can get in by not playing any strong teams, doing well in conference, and laying an egg in the conference tourney. The only thing they really did was just not play any teams above 233 in the RPI, and beat all the teams they should beat.

There's certainly no conspiracy. The selection committee just had to figure out how much value it was going to place on the MVC's RPI.

[StLouBlue]

Giving Air Force a bid, told every mid-major what then? Losing to best team on schedule--Washington and only non-conf win to under 100 RPI team was Miami at a neutral site. 5 non-conf wins to teams w/ 290+ RPIs. Only splitting with top 2 conference teams, BYU & San Diego St, losing to both on the road. Also losing in conference tourney first round to Wyoming--170 RPI.

I do think Mo St should have gotten in, especially when you start looking at some of the other at large bids, but that is the nature of the beast.

[Pistol]

I wasn't necessarily thrilled when Air Force got a bid, but they deserved it more than Mo State. Unlike MSU, they actually played a top-level non-conference opponent (Washington) and beat a BCS school in the top 100 (Miami FL). They had 4 conference losses compared to MSU's 6, and also bowed out in the first round, and in a game decided by 2 points. They also didn't lose one home game.

[Larry the Legend]

I think that gradually over time, more non-BCS programs will get a "hard" look come Selection Sunday. However, I find it hard to believe that once it comes down to a Michigan State versus a Creighton, that the committee would take the smaller school. I know we would all like to believe they are unbiased, but the $$$ have to be in the back of everyone's mind when deciding between a big time school and a smaller school that just doesn't have a huge fan base that travels and would spend the dough. Now with that said, I think with some of the success that non-BCS schools are having now, this gap is and should be getting smaller.

[StLouBlue]

I agree MO St didn't take care of business and left it to the committe to decide so tough on them. On your points though, MO St lost in the MVC tourney to a team that did receive an at large bid in UNI, Wyoming was 13-18. Also the MVC plays 18 conf games--MO St going 12-6, while AF played 16 conf games for 12-4. Overall SOS 46 for MO St to 158 for AF and also AF played 2 games against non-div 1, that didn't count against the SOS either.

I think there are/were arguements for both teams, just to me it seems that MO St was the better/more deserved of the 2 teams.