The Wiz

I hope you are right and we can take Jocius out of his game. At 6'10 and 260 he is 10th in the A-10 in 2P% shooting 59%. In the last game against St. J ( a defense similar to ours) he scored 15 pts and 6 rebs in 22 min. If we can stop Jocius, maybe then we can concentrate on closing the TO spread and outperforming LaS all the way across the slash line as we are the better shooting team.

Injury update 2/4.... Meadows ...Back...Questionable

General Outlook....Post season A-10.....NCAA...Day 4th seed....NIT chances...Rich ...82%....VCU...50%...Meanwhile back at the PIG pen....it will be the battle of the bottom feeders......This could be a preview of the first game of the A-10 tourney next month. If PIGs fly high, we can leave the sty. Let's take a look at the game Game Preview....Well the good news is their has been nice improvement on the report card ( Off and Def...although their is still lots of room for improvement )....the bad news is that it was canceled out by TOs. Going forward if we can bring the TOs under control we can start winning games again. Many of you may be tired of me talking about TOs the last couple of months but that is the elephant in the room. Again, when we lose the TO battle we lose the game 83% of the time. Part of the problem on the TO spread is opponent TOs ...we are not generating enough to cancel out our TOs. Opp TOs= F- 19th worst ITN. Finally when we win the TO spread our chances to win become 50-50...so we still have to play basketball after the TOs improve. LaS (C- ) is not as good as Fham. Meanwhile, The Bills have fallen to D+ .....The Explorer Off is slightly better than Fham ...but their shooting is still below The Bills...we need to sweep them on the slash....also the LaS defense is worse than Fham....but about the same as ours. We definitely have a chance to beat them IF we control TOs. They do have some players that can shoot the three...Brickus and sub Morrero. When left open they are A shooters...when guarded they are D shooters. Their inside guy is Jocius...So here is the LaS play...Brickus gets the ball and shoots a 3 ...if he doesn't have an open shot he passes to Jocius who will shoot inside...if he doesn't have a shot he will pass it back to Brickus....wash, rinse , repeat. Let's look at the card.... Report Card.... The card is positive.....6 up ( 2 Off & 4 Def) and none down .................SLU............LaS................SLU.....................LaS ...........................OFF..........................................DEF.......... PPG..........D+..................C....................D-......................D+ FG%..........D+..................D-...................D.......................D+ 3P%...........B+...................C.....................D+...................D FT%..........B-...................C................................................. Reb...........D.....................D+..................D+......................F+ OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....FG%...3P%....Def...PPG...FG%...3P%...Reb Down.........Off....none....FT%......Def...none Top 100 In The Nation SLU Min /gm...Jimerson ...58th...dn LaS MPG...Brickus...9th.....Brantley... 41st Asst...Brickus...49th Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills....None LaS....None Keys to the Game.......Don't let Brickus get open 3s....Break up the Brickus to Jocius combo....keep the good shooting going but this time make some FTs....Did I mention TOs? WWN2D2W...Target slash-- beat them in all 3 categories of the slash....Hold LaS to 71 pts....Match them in TOs and Rebs....Hold their top 2 scores to 25pts Bottom line....Explore new territory...Land of the Win...It is located on the other side of Lake Turnover.

Magic 8 Ball says...Chances are good. Let's throw out a few numbers...18 12 83 18...The number of Bills TOs....this number was way too high 12...The spread in TOs ...double digit TO spreads are almost always a loss.. the key here is not just the horrible 18 number from above but that we could only force a very poor 6 TOs from Fham.....the computer says if the Bills hit 53% from the arc in any game with a TO deficit they can can still win the game....interestingly, had Parker made the final 3 at the buzzer for the win...we would have shot 53% from the arc.... 83...The percentage of games The Bills lose when they lose the TO battle. Of course there were many factors to talk about in addition to the TOs...a simple one would be FTs...Had the Bills made their normal FT % they would have had 3 more pts. I could go on....but I will leave you with my bottom line from the original post of this thread.... "Fham can't beat us...We either win the game or we give them the game.".....I would say that is one of my most accurate predictions.

So in order to answer this, the computer had to go back to its original algorithm from the Magic 8 Ball ...I asked it 4 times...here were the answers. 1. Replay hazy, try again. 2. Cannot predict now. 3. Ask again later. 4. The Bills are behind the 8 ball.

This might work as long as we don't foul Gray...he is their FT shooter.. 79%

General Outlook...."Juan" is taking a siesta. For the 1st time this season the A10 is showing the possibility of having 2 bids...Day ...4th seed in the Dance...Rich ...50% chance to Dance ...St. B...NIT...58%. Meanwhile, back in the pen, we are preparing for another battle of the PIGs. If we want to climb out of the sty we need to win this game. Let's take a look at the game Game Preview.... As you can see by the headline, the computer thinks we can win this game. Why? Hasn't the computer been watching? Yes, that's why it thinks we can win. We are the better team on offense. We are better shooters ...we should sweep the slash line. And while we are terrible on D, they are only a hair better. Rose, Gray and Rivera are their main guys...Rose from the arc and the other 2 on the inside. Tsimbila is a big shot blocker. Don't dribble into him and get swatted away. Finally, Fham is a team that turns the ball over(D- ). Turn them over. Let's take a look at this game's report card.... Report Card.... The card is negative....none up and 4 down(3 Off and 1 Def)...... .................SLU............Fham................SLU...................Fham ...........................OFF..........................................DEF............. PPG..........D+..................C....................F+.........................D+ FG%..........D....................F+...................D-.........................C 3P%...........B...................D.....................D............................D+ FT%..........B-...................F..................................................... Reb...........D.....................B-..................D.............................B- OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....none...FT%....Def....none Down.........Off....FG%...3P%...FT%......Def....3P% Top 100 In The Nation SLU Min /gm...Jimerson ...38th...up Fham Stls...Rose...72nd Blks...Tsimbila...13th Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills....None Fham....None Keys to the Game.......We need to beat them in TOs...and we need to beat them in shooting --in all categories. Their 3P D is not very good ...hopefully, we can hit from the arc. They can't shoot --UNLESS we leave them wide open....this includes points off TOs too. WWN2D2W...Target slash-- beat them in all 3 categories of the slash....Hold Fham to 70 pts....Win the TO battle....Hold their top 3 to under 30 pts...Hold Tsimbila to 1 blk. Bottom line....Fham can't beat us...We either win the game or we give them the game. Let's not be sheepish...let's bring it to them.

I think the computer takes what you say into account. It predicted a 10 pt win for Loy...Loy won by 15. . Once the computer picks a double digit win anything above the forecast is considered a "diminishing return" and not that meaningful. The key point of that TO stat was...in most cases you have to win the TO battle first AND THEN you need to win the game with other stats. Lose that TO battle and it will be very difficult to win the game (as in 54% + from the arc). In the A10 where you have a great deal of parity even a small TO spread can affect the outcome of the game.. The larger TO spreads just turn the games into blowouts.

Another painful loss...The good news is we won the TO spread (by 4). Time to check out what I said in the SLPD thread on TOs When the Bills lose the TO spread...there is an 82% chance of a loss. Conversely, when they win the TO spread they win 50% of the time. This means when you lose the spread it is almost a sure loss ...if you win the spread you have a chance to win. In other words, winning the spread you still have work to do (like making the slash) but it gives you a chance....Losing the TO spread is almost a certain loss regardless of what else you do. So we won the TO battle which gave us a chance to win. And then we shot poorly...really poor...2 of 14 (14%) from the arc....Here is what tonight's graded slash looks like....F-/ F- / F- / C-....Had The Bills just shot their own season average they would have had 4 more 3s...1 more 2 and 1 more FT...Total 15 pts. Again, they didn't need a good shooting game but just an average Bills night to win. This isn't complicated with fancy efficiency stats ....Win the TO battle and then shoot The Bills average to win games.

Maybe that should read Loyrythms

For the Dance...the NCAA Dance committee thinks 15-20% of the time...the computer thinks the rest of the time. Outside of the Dance there is very little thinking...just reacting....kind of like a snail.

MVC Ind St....76% Dance chance ...9th or 10th seed Bradley...74% NIT chance Drake....70% NIT chance. Computer says....NCAA has no special love for MVC (or any other conf that is not P6) The computer has been programmed to think like the NCAA.

Here is what I am showing.....In the Mo Valley The Bills would be 9th out of 11 teams. In the OVC we would be 2nd battling Morehead St for the conf title. As for the A-10...I have Day as a lock(4th seed)....Rich as a lock for the NIT...not yet on the radar for the Dance(still below a 50% chance) and GM with a 58% chance for the NIT.

There are many ways to measure FGA frequency. Let's start with a simple one.....FGA...Dav 65 SLU 56 = 9.....TOs... Dav 3 ...SLU..12 = 9.... FGA...UMass 61...SLU...55...= 6....TO UMass 7...SLU 12 = 5....You can see the pattern... TO's= extra opp Poss = extra FGA Of course , I like the TO spread I use because it converts the spread into points and you can really see the affect the TOs have on the game. If you will allow me to plagiarize myself from the post "The Wiz and the P-D" here is what I wrote..."TO spreads affect point spreads. This is different from the stat that is labeled points off TOs whereby you take possession of the ball and you score on a TO. The magic number in a TO spread is 2.25 pts. This calculation takes into account not just points that could be scored on a TO but the lost opportunity from the team that turned it over. The rough breakdown is the the opponent gets 1.25pts for the TO and the team that lost the ball loses an "opportunity point". The numbers are based on the teams shooting percentages and generally vary between 2 and 2.4 pts. But generally it gravitates to around 2.25. " In the Mass game multiplying the 5 TOs by 2.25 = the actual game spread. In the Dav game multiplying the 9 TOs by 2.25 =20.25 pts again very close to the actual game spread of 23 pts. There are other stats that measure efficiency. Effective Possession Ratio (EPR). A team's ability to generate shots for itself....The way this works is Off Rebs get you another possession to shoot. Get more Off Rebs and your EPR goes up....Getting a TO also gets you another possession and causes your EPR to go up. Conversely , low Off rebs and losing TOs push your EPR down. What does this mean for SLU? SLU's EPR grade =D....When we look at opponent EPR...SLU's opponent EPR grade is F....19th worst ITN. Finally, let's look at one last stat related to all of this....Extra Chance Pts . You get a point for every TO forced and every Off reb and lose a point for every TO and Off reb you lose. The SLU ECP grade is another F. One last thought, I am not a big fan of the EPR and ECU. I watch them and find them interesting but sometimes Off Rebs are down because you are just having a great day shooting and your opp can't shoot even when given extra shots. But when you are talking TOs...TO always equals bad. Bottom line...Big negative TO spreads = less possessions = less FGAs = less wins

General Outlook....I am not going to discuss the TO issue ...at least not here. If you want to follow that ...check the thread..."The Wiz and the SLPD" on the board. For this post , I would like to talk about point spreads. Point spreads are most commonly used in the betting world. But in the analytical world, they are used as a measuring device, like a ruler or a tape measure. I am always amused when the spread is off some board members start to complain about the computer being broke or it doesn't know what it's doing. When it draws up the forecasted spread , it is reviewing all the data of all the teams and assessing where The Bills are in the D1 universe. If the spread is off on the downside (we do worse than expected) we under preform and the computer looks for the reason. On the upside, when we overperform(do better than expected) then the computer looks for what went right. Imagine going into a hardware store and buying a 4ft board. When you get home , you measure the board with the tape measure you have had for years and the board is only 3 ft long. Would you blame the tape measure...would you say it was faulty or would you use it as a tool to understand that the store may have under performed and given you a too short board. Currently we have been under performing...which sets up a downward trend. The computer job is to spot those trends and locate where the issues are in the data. It is the job of the coaching staff to try and fix it and make changes... it is the job of the message board to discuss the fixes and changes( in a civil manner). Let's take a look at the game Game Preview....Loy come in as a B team The Bills are on the bottom as a C- team. While the game spread is big this is not a auto win for Loy. Loy has some weaknesses ..if we exploit them we can win. One weakness is they shoot poorly from the FT line...another big weakness is poor 3P defense...That could play into our strength. They are an F team when defending the 3. We are a B+ team from the arc. In our last game it lined up like this ...a B+ team shooting against an F team and we finish with a C+...not the outcome you would hope for. At the FT line, Loy came through with a 60%...unfortunately , we shot a horrible 42%...we need to do better on the slash to win. Finally, the TO spread rears its head one more time. We turned them over 9 times ...not great but better than we have been doing recently. But we had 14 TOs which led to a negative 5 TOs...an 11 pt swing in a 7 pt Loy win. Match them on TOs and we're back in this game. Let's take a look at this game's report card.... Report Card.... The card is positive....2 up and 1 down......The good news is we were up in 2 Off categories...the bad news is we recorded our 1st F on the card....of course the real bad stat continues to be opp TOs...F-...14th W ITN .................SLU............Loy................SLU.........................Loy ...........................OFF..........................................DEF............. PPG..........D+..................C-..................F+...........................B FG%..........D+.................B....................D-............................A 3P%...........B+..................C+................D+...........................F FT%..........B.....................D-..................................................... Reb...........D.....................C+..................D...........................B- OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....3P%...FT%....Def....none Down.........Off....none......Def....PPG Top 100 In The Nation SLU Min /gm...Jimerson ...43rd...dn Loy Ast...Norris...65th FG%...Adelekun...63rd Blks...Rubin...17th Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills....None Loy....None Keys to the Game.......Stop Alston and Watson....Watson is their 3P guy and Alston is their inside guy. We did a good job on Alston the last time we played the Ramblers. Not so much on Watson who scored 24 pts including over 70% from the arc (5-7). The Bills need to make 3s and FTs...Last time we played Loy, we shot a below average 34.6% from the arc and only slightly better from the FT line...42%...Last game we actually had too many TOs...14...that needs to come down. Don't dribble into their shot blocker ...Rubin...17th ITN. WWN2D2W...Target slash...48/40/75....Hold Loy to 70 pts....Match Loy on TOs....Hold Watson to 12 pts....Alston to 10...Beat Loy on 3P% and FT%...Out score them from the arc. Hold Rubin to 1 blk....limit Norris to 2 FTAs Bottom line....If we can match them on TOs and make the slash, we could ramble off with a win.

Oh Bills, I don't think we are in Chaifetz anymore.

I feel like I am too busy to be The Wiz.

That would be a Commodore 64...with a souped up 8 bits

Perhaps The Wiz is with Dorothy.....Follow the yellow brick road.

SLU's defensive woes compounded by inability to force turnovers Stu Durando Jan 26, 2024 On Jan 26 at 851AM I put up the UMass spread thread on this board. My lead topic as always was "General Outlook" where I discuss things going on with the Bills team that need extra emphasis. In that post , I explained the problem of TO spreads particularly are inability to force opponent TOs. Later in that same day the above headline appeared in the St L Post Dispatch. Either great minds think a like or it was just a coincidence. In any case, Stu brings this up to Ford ...and Ford agrees that this is part of the defensive problem that needs to be fixed. This is good because in order to fix a problem you first have to acknowledge it. Of course those who are regular readers of my posts know that I have been harping on this stat for weeks. TOs are always in my forecast because they are an important stat. But I only harp on a stat when it consistently affects our ability to win over time. And this stat does that this year. After the UMass game, we are now 14th worst ITN for the season and 4th WITN in the last 3 games in opponent TOs. This issue is about TO spreads...the difference between your TOs and the opposing team's TOs. Usually, the problem is a team is not protecting the ball or being careless with passes and their own TO count is high. But in this case, the issue is we don't force TOs which is creating a negative spread. The problem came to the forefront against La Tech when you had a black swan event(a black swan event is a term used in statistics meaning an extremely rare event or anomaly) . In that game Tech had NO TOs ...something that might happen once in a decade or so. From there on we have just continued to trend down. How does this affect the game? TO spreads affect point spreads. This is different from the stat that is labeled points off TOs whereby you take possession of the ball and you score on a TO. The magic number in a TO spread is 2.25 pts. This calculation takes into account not just points that could be scored on a TO but the lost opportunity from the team that turned it over. The rough breakdown is the the opponent gets 1.25pts for the TO and the team that lost the ball loses an "opportunity point". The numbers are based on the teams shooting percentages and generally vary between 2 and 2.4 pts. But generally it gravitates to around 2.25. So how does this work? Let's look at the UMass game. In that game, we had 12 TOs and UM had 7....TO spread= 5....TO spread factor...2.25.... 5x 2.25pts =11pts....the exact difference in the game. Coincidentally, UMass points off TOs was 11pts...that number doesn't take into account points Bills scored off of TOs or lost opportunities on the 12 Bills TOs. So the TO spread is a better indicator of game outcome. How does this affect games... When the Bills lose the TO spread...there is an 82% chance of a loss. Conversely, when they win the TO spread they win 55% of the time. This means when you lose the spread it is almost a sure loss ...if you win the spread you have a chance to win. In other words, winning the spread you still have work to do (like making the slash) but it gives you a chance....Losing the TO spread is almost a certain loss regardless of what else you do. At this point I pushed the computer and asked ...what would it take to win the game in a losing spread? The answer for the Bills would be to shoot 54%+ from the 3P line....Not likely very often. Bottom line....Close the TO spread...win games.

I mentioned in the opening post in this thread that we aren't bad in TOs (C+)...but we are horrific (F- 16th worst ITN) in opponent TOs. It is the extremely low total (again 16th worst ITN) that is causing the TO spreads / differences that are putting us in an impossible situation to win. When we lose the TO spread the computer estimates our only chance to win is to shoot 54%+ from the arc. That won't happen very often.

In the general outlook in my original post in this thread , I went into detail about the importance of matching them in TOs. We didn't and we lost. When we don't match the other team in TOs, we have an 82% chance of losing. The computer thought we would lose the TO battle by 1 or 2 TOs....equivalent to 2-5pts. We actual had 5 extra TOs worth 11 pts, the exact margin of the game. In the upcoming Loyola game spread thread, I will go into greater detail about how the TO spread works but for now the only number you need to remember is 82%....the chance for a loss when we TO over the ball more than the opponent.

That's why we are in the PP.

General Outlook....We are stuck in the PIG pen and trending down. There is still plenty of season left (1/3 of conf play is over) but we need a few wins. We let one slip away with Dav. We have another opportunity with UMass. As you can see by the spread , the computer thinks this will be a close game. Of course, the computer thought the last game would be close. We have a leaking spot in our D and unless it is fixed, it will continue to wreck spreads ...sometimes in a big way such as Dav or SIU. I am talking about opponent TOs which lead to negative TO spreads. Let me show you some stat grades in this upcoming UMass game....TOs...SLU C+...UMass B...so far not too bad...but wait ...there is more ...opponent TOs....UMass ..A-....SLU...F- ..16th worst ITN...If those grades play out on Sat we could lose by 20 pts...if we can match them on TOs the game is a tossup. Point of information...UMass gives up an average of 11.1 TOs /per game and we usually rack up about 11/gm...so this is not pie in the sky stuff...It is doable. Fix this and we will start winning again. Leave it loose and we will continue to trend down. Let's take a look at the game.... Game Preview....We are still clinging to a C-... a loss will knock us down a notch. UMass comes in with a B. They are a better team than Dav BUT they do have some weaknesses. They are not a very good 3P or FT team. We need to take advantage of that. Dav wasn't a great shooting 3 team either missing a number of shots EXCEPT when we left them open. This will be a little bit different look than the average A10 team where you see a 4 guard lineup with a big guy. The Minutemen will use 2 big guys in their lineups. Their main men are Cohen who leads in PPG , FG% and is 2nd in rebs.....and Cross who leads in Rebs and is 2nd in PPG.... Stopping them will also give us a chance to win. I mentioned UMass wasn't very good from the arc ...close in they are an excellent B+...we will have to watch our fouls. Let's take a look at this game's report card.... Report Card.... The card is negative...No up and 2 down......The good news is that the defense did not go down...the bad news it is in bad shape .................SLU............Mass................SLU.........................Mass ...........................OFF..........................................DEF............. PPG..........D+..................A-..................D-...........................C FG%..........D+.................B....................D-............................B 3P%...........B.....................D..................D+...........................C- FT%..........B-....................D..................................................... Reb...........D.....................B+....................D...........................B- OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....none.....Def....none Down.........Off....FG%...3P%......Def...none Top 100 In The Nation SLU Min /gm...Jimerson ...41st...dn Mass Rebs....Cross...73rd Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills....None Mass....None Keys to the Game.......Slow down Cohen and Cross....Make some 3s...Force some TOs...No open shots from the arc...protect the ball, no careless giveaways. WWN2D2W...Target slash...46/37/75....Hold Mass to 72 pts....Come within 1 on TOs and Rebs....Hold Cohen to 13 pts...Beat Mass on 3P% and FT%...Out score them from the arc. Keep their top 3 scorers to 37 pts...hold Cross to 6 rebs. Bottom line....If we can make a few 3s and force a few TOs, we can turn this thing around in a Minute man.

Yes ...In Crews's final season 2015-16...C16. It went from 35 sec to 30 sec.