The Wiz

What a great game and a big win...This was an A team with one of the top defenses in the country. The next spread thread should be an interesting one. Let's take a look at what happened...Bolded statements are from above... The team that controls the game, wins the game. The unstoppable force (Bills offense) vs the immovable object (Bonnie defense)...The unstoppable force knocks over the immovable object. The Bonnies gave up an extra 12 pts. Play fast and aggressive from the opening buzzer all game... which we did..this was especially true when Thames was in there. Target slash 49 / 36 / 73...Yes, yes and yes...actual slash...49/39/77...always important to make shots and we did... Hold them to less than 70pts...68 is great...This was huge since Council , Brown and Moore had a good night we still held their team back enough to beat them. TOs even...we lost this one by 1 ..TOs will be critical...We have a respectable 11.8 TO rate (C+)...St. B has a good rate of 10.7 (B+)...We did what we were supposed to do. win Rebs by 2...This was a miss...mostly it was the Anya who was missing, playing only11 min because of foul trouble...with only 2 rebs that cost us 8-9 rebs. Fortunately Thames was able to fill the gap when Anya was out. Once Thames (cramping) and Anya were out some where near the end St. B dominated the boards and the lead started to evaporate. Had Thames or Anya been able to finish the game we would made the rebs by 2 and probably won the game by 16. Bottom line.... If we can make them play our game and we make some shots ...we win. We did , we did and we did There was a lot to like in this game . Was it perfect? No, but that just means we have more upside to go.

You almost pulled it off...The Bills winning AND SBU covering. The Bonnies had the ball for the final shot and then fumbled it away. Had they made it , you would have had a double win.

This is a big difference...How about if The Bills win and St. B covers ...then you can be happy twice.

I spoke to my friend at the Vegas sports book and asked him what's up. He said their original model (before betting) showed SLU winning by 4.5. When betting opened up the line moved down to 2.5 and now has moved back to 3.5 He said their model is sensitive to trending. He thinks that SLU had been hurt (pardon the pun) by injuries and that now things are more normal it is showing a more realistic trend...ie this is the real SLU.... So I tried my trend model which shows the last 10 games only... giving more weight to recent games and less as you go back in time...and it still shows SB winning by 2. I notice KenPom also has SB by 1. I will leave you with a quote my Vegas friend always uses when we differ..."We know things you don't."

I ran the numbers again this morning ...no change but in honor of @Old guy today's spread is showing St. B by 4.0287( the computer likes 4 decimal places). The computer's concern is similar to yours especially on offensive rebs. Their big guy Brown (6'11" center) plants himself under the basket and looks for 2 ft putbacks or kicks it out for another 20 sec. You will note in the report card in the original post above that Brown is 43rd ITN in FG%(putbacks). The computer thinks if we can hold him to 8 pts we can win. Btw , he is a good FT shooter, so fouling him won't help either. TOs are always a concern, but the computer is not as worried there. We have shown we can protect the ball...they lead us by about 1 TO/ gm...If we don't play carelessly we should be able to match them on TOs. Player to watch ...Council...17th ITN in steals(2.5/gm) ...who ever he is guarding will have to play heads up ball. St. B is not an offensive team thus the reason for their slow down. If we have a good shooting night(49/36/73) we have a good chance to win. Go Bills

I rest my case.

Or you could use a QCD to reduce your RMD which might be more valuable than a deduction.

I quoted you because your post was about being real. It might be fun to speculate whether we will go 18-0 just like it is fun to speculate on winning the mega jackpot lottery but in the interest of realism the strategy for The Bills is to finish in the top 4 this year and every year. The reality is in most years the A10 will receive only 1 bid. Again it is fun to talk about Cinderella teams or a 16th seed pulling off an upset or that the NCAA "owes" Schertz a bid but in the end the NCAA will do whatever is best for the NCAA. When faced with the choice of a mid level SEC team with many quad 1 games and a 2nd bid for the A10 there is no choice for the NCAA but to go with the Power conference knowing there will be plenty of other Cinderella teams with auto bids from other conferences. There is a chance for a 2nd A10 bid, but it is less than 50% and will always be that way until things change (ie expanding the tourney). That less than 50% chance for a 2nd bid has been and will continue to decline as the Power conferences get bigger and stronger. Unless change happens , the strategy is to be a top 4 A10 team and win 3 games in the tourney. As they say at the crap table, you can wish for the 12 to come up but you are better off betting on the 7.

I agree. Interestingly, in the last 2 games, we have shot a respectable 71.4%(10-14 in both games) vs 64.4%. Not a big difference but the difference between an F and a C and maybe a game changer in a close game.

Again , I will play along. So we win all 18 games in conference. Hard to say what the NET would be but some seem to think around 40...but let's juice that up a bit to give us a little margin to say ...28. You said in your earlier post 7 or 8 losses might do the trick too...Let's not take any chances ...let's go with the 7 losses...We have 6 losses now and the 7th loss can be in the A10 tourney to continue the model that was setup in this thread. Of course , if we lose in the tourney somebody else gets the auto bid but that shouldn't be a problem either. So where are we? We go 18-0 in the conference season and lose 1 in the tourney...we finish the season 28-6 ...we have a NET rank of 28 ...we are in....No we are not in ...we go to the NIT. The previous paragraph is not fictional nor is it about the Billikens. And the bolded statement is not me talking. That is what happened to Ind St last year when they went 28-6 ...and had a NET 28...the bolded statement was made by Coach Schertz after receiving the snub from the Committee. Btw...If you check my numbers in the above scenario if we go 18-0 plus 1 loss in the A10 tourney , we finished at 27-7...not as good as the 28-6 that ISU posted. If you don't believe me ...believe Coach Schertz ...he speaks from experience. I stand by my original post above.

OK ...I'll play along... So we go 18-0 and then go to the A-10 tourney and lose the first game...No Dance....You say , that can't happen so we win the 1st game and then lose the 2nd...again no tourney... you say we won't lose the 2nd one. OK, we win the 3rd for sure...That gives us the A10 tourney and we Dance.

I liked him when he was here. I thought he always looked good in practice.

I agree with you ...TOs will be critical...We have a respectable 11.8 TO rate (C+)...St. B has a good rate of 10.7 (B+) ..That is why in the WWN2D2W section in the original post , I wanted us to be even on TOs. Their goal is to slow play us and keep it close until the final 5 min and then put on a burst and try to take the game from us. If we play like we did the last 2 games...fast , up tempo and aggressive (without making mistakes-TOs), their strategy won't work. Instead they will tire in the final minutes and we can open it up and take the game. The team that controls the game, wins the game. The unstoppable force (Bills offense) vs the immovable object (Bonnie defense).

Fixed it ...Thanks

Great win against St. J. To see how we did it check out the post game analysis under the SJ spread thread. We are still at B- ...We are on our way to B...A win over St. B will get us there. I have mentioned a number of times that B is the magic grade level. We have been gelling the last 2 weeks. When we get to B that will be the signal that we have arrived. At that point we will be in a position to compete for a top 4 spot in the A10. This game could put us over the top. Game preview... This won't be easy...St. B comes in with a lot of momentum as they come off whupping Fordham for their 8th straight win. They come in at an A level and a great Chance to Dance in March. So how does it look? Well the good news is we also have momentum with 2 decisive wins in the last 2 games. In addition we are gelling at the right time. When looking at the stats, we clearly have the better offense. The problem is not only do they have a better defense but one of the best defenses in the country. The good news is that while the computer has St. B favored, it thinks we can beat them if we play our game. That means we play an up tempo , fast and aggressive game. St. B will try to play a slow, sluggish game. They will want this game to be a defensive struggle. If we play our game...we win...if we play their game we lose. There is one other item we need to discuss before we look at the report card. Everyone know this team, as most past Schertz teams, are all about shooting...especially 3 pt shooting...with a smattering of up close 2s. I have heard it said... as our 3 P shooting goes, so goes the game. This isn't quite true. The last game was a below average 3P game yet we won handily. We don't talk much about 2s but in the report card below you will note our FG% has gone up and has been on the rise over the last couple of weeks. The FG% which is composed of 2s and 3s did not go up because we did great from the arc. It went up because we hit 2s. Here is the hidden stat no one talks about because it is missing from the slash line. WE ARE 7th ITN IN 2P%. We are shooting about 60% from close in. To beat that at the arc, we would have to shoot 40% or better ....which we do sometimes but overall average about 36%. Fit this factoid under the category of "why we win". Now let's look at the Card and see what's up.... Report Card.... Report Card change....5 up...0 dn...4 unchanged = +5....for the 2nd game in a row ...no down categories...keep it going UP.....OFF....FG%.....Reb...DEF....FG%...PPG...3P% Dn....OFF...none....DEF...none ................SLU..................St.B.....................SLU......................St. B ...........................OFF...................................................DEF.......... PPG...........B-..................D+.........................C+......................A+..11th ITN FG%..........A-..................B..........................B-........................A- 3P%...........B...................D+........................C.........................B- FT%..........F.....................B-.............................................................. Reb............C+...................C-.......................D..........................B+ OFF Rebs = total Bills rebs...DEF Rebs = opp total reb Top 100 In The Nation SLU... PPG...Jimerson ....65th...dn ..........Swope.........57th....up ..........Avila............67th...up 3PM......Jimerson...25th...up ..............Swope........51st...dn Reb....Anya...........16th...up FG%...Anya.....96th...dn St. B FG%...Brown...43rd Stls...Council...17th Injuries Player Status/Updated Notes AJ Casey F Ques Fri - Undisclosed - 1/4/25 Casey is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will dress against St Bonaventure on Wednesday. Josiah Dotzler G out of season - Knee - 11/26/24 Dotzler has been sidelined with a knee injury, and he is likely to miss the remainder of the season. Player Status/Updated Notes Dasonte Bowen G Ques Wed - Foot - 1/4/25 Bowen sat out the previous four games due to a foot injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Saint Louis on Wednesday. Jaxon Edwards G Out indefinitely - Undisclosed - 12/31/24 Edwards will miss an extended period due to a groin injury, and it is unknown how long he will be debilitated. Keys to the game....Play fast and aggressive from the opening buzzer all game. They will try to let the 30 sec clock run down. Keep TOs down ...no unforced errors...Make pts not TOs. WWN2D2W.....Target slash 49 / 36 / 73....win Rebs by 2... TOs even...Hold them to less than 70pts...Hold Moore, Council and Brown to a combined total of 34 pts. Bottom line.. Play like you are going to win...If we can make them play our game and we make some shots ...we win. My Bonnie lies over the ocean My Bonnie would like to see A Billiken win at the Chaifetz Please bring home a winner for me. Go Bills

Even though he only made 1 shot in the St. J game he still moved up 3 places. 63 Jimmy Baron 361 2006 2009 Rhode Island Gibson Jimerson 361 2020 2025 Saint Louis Wesley Person 361 2015 2018 Troy Parker Smith 361 2009 2013 North Florida

This next game against St. B is a big one . I hope we have a good crowd. A close game is forecast with a slight edge to St. B. Of course, we have our new secret weapon when the opponent is shooting FTs...The Air Dance Wacky Waving Inflatable Tube Man from the mattress store parking lot who hovers over the top of the backboard when the opposing team is at the charity stripe. St. J is a good shooting FT team (B+) and their numbers were down for the game...83% when down at the other end of the court and 67% when facing Tube guy. Could be just a coincidence but.... I can smell the gell...

I don't usually do updates once conference starts but this seemed like a good time to do one for a few reasons... 1. I am snowed in....2. There have been a few upsets (I use the word upset lightly in this case) 3. I have some interesting Vegas news. First the big news yesterday was the whupping of Day by GW. This actually was an upset (beating a team 2 letter grades ahead of you) and doing it convincingly. There were some prognosticators who thought Dayton might go undefeated in A10 play. And while many still think Day is the class of the conference, the word is they can be beaten on any given day. As for the Bills we had a great win over St. J. I currently have us at B-. Since the start of the season, I have talked about the concept of gelling....where a team comes together and plays like one fully functioning unit both on offense and defense. In the beginning , I said we look like we have potential but we need to gel. And then as the season progressed we seemed to drift. It was after the GC game that the computer started to flash a slow green. A signal that the team was starting to gel. The signal got stronger after the win over St. J , a good A10 team. So we have had 2 convincing wins ...have we gelled? The computer says not yet but we are close. The computer has set the "gel target" at grade B. When we reach that level, we will not only have gelled but we will then be in a position to compete for a top 4 spot in the A10. It won't be a smooth road. I haven't started the St. B game yet but the computer has already told me that it is picking St. B in a close game AND that if we play like we did against St. J we can beat St. B. When I say "like we played against St. J", I am not talking about just stats and slash lines but style of play...a fast, up tempo, aggressive style of play. It was this kind of play that threw St. J off their game. When they pressed us ...it slowed things down and allowed St. J to close the gap. We will talk more about this in the spread thread later on. For those that are wondering what B- coverts to in a ranking system...the answer is 118. The point of the grading system is to get away from the micro of ranking teams and convert it into a system where like teams are grouped together...in my system there is virtually no difference between teams with the same grade. Which brings me to the next point. I have a friend who works at a major sports book in Vegas. He told me about the Vegas "base" book. This is their program which picks the teams they think will win. Not the one the public sees, but what the actual outcome should be BEFORE the betting begins. Once the betting starts, it is the law of supply and demand which pushes the spread up and down. In addition they rank teams and conferences too.. before betting. They currently have the A10 ranked as 8th. He sent me a copy of the A10 rankings by team. I commented how the teams are really bunched together and that it looks like we are moving toward parity. in addition, once the teams are closer together in rankings you can move up and down quicker in those rankings from game to game. He said I was spot on and that it wasn't just the A10 but all conferences are seeing that parity. Each conference is forming their own similar bubble from the Southwestern conference to the SEC where there is much less difference between number 1 team in the conference and the bottom feeder.. With that in mind, I took the data he sent me and turned it into a report card below. You will note my card and Vegas's card look very different but the parity shines through on both cards ...Vegas even more than mine...Let's take a look... ................................The Wiz.........................................................Vegas 1....St. B......A.....NCAA...85%..NIT... 90%..............................Day....A-....NCAA...72%...90% 2...Day.......B+....NCAA..50%...NIT...90%...............................VCU...B+...NCAA...49%...90% 3...RI..........B+....NIT....82%.....................................................SLU....B................................ 4...VCU......B+....NIT....74%.....................................................St. J....B.............................. 5...GM.......B..............................................................................GM.....B 6...GW.......B...............................................................................Loy....B 7...Dav......B................................................................................Dav...B- 8...SLU.....B-...............................................................................St. B..B- 9..St. J.....B-................................................................................RI......B- 10...Duq...C+...............................................................................GW....B- 11...Loy....C+...............................................................................UMas..B- 12...LaS...C+................................................................................LaS....C+ 13...Fham..C.................................................................................Fham..C+ 14...RIch.....D+...............................................................................Duq...C+ 15...UMass...D................................................................................Rich....C A couple of notes...On the Vegas side, SLU is already a B and competing for a top 4 spot. I asked my Vegas friend about the fact that St. B and RI seemed low ranked at 8/9 and he said all they have to do is move up 1 step from B- to B and they are competing for a top 4 spot. Finally, there is this from Linardi....He has The Bills down as a bid stealer. And the season continues to unfold...

A quick update after last night's win...We went into the game as a B- and came out with a B- but better numbers...Going in as a 129 coming out as a 116 on my system. Right now a move up to around 109 and the computer will give us a B which is where it thinks we belong at this point of the season...B = able to compete for a top 4 spot in the A10...B+ = a chance to compete in post season.

A sweet win...in front of the largest crowd of the season... on national TV...The Bills played their best ball of the year. Let's see what happened...bolded statements from original post. We could take another big step up in the game against St. J...we could and we did. We also have something we haven't had so far this season ...some momentum...we are trending up...yes we are and the trend continues... offense and defense for 40 min...Yes Target slash 49 / 36 / 73..This was the key to the win...actual...49/32/71...we missed the slash by one 3p shot....pretty good. In addition...excellent defense led to a 33/ 15/ 73...the key was their 3 pt shooting was down nearly 60 %...they shot 9% in the 2nd half. Had they had an average game they would have scored an additional five 3s...the difference in the game. In summary...our slash allowed us to win the game, their slash allowed us to blow them out. Rebs even...We beat them by 3...including by 9 on the DRB...excellent. either we hold them to 72 pts or we score a Shack Shake (80pts)...I will take the 72 and another checkmark. Reynolds, Fleming and Brown to 39 pts...They scored 35pt...more good D....Do not give Brown and Reynolds more than 5 FTA...We gave them 4 extra FTA which resulted in 4 extra pts but because we held their best scorers to a 4 pt deficit in the previous statement, it was a wash. And because we neatly matched them in FT shooting , again there was no damage. Bottom line..There will be no flappin...just high 5 slappin....we will receive our fame ...when we win the game...The fame will be the jump in rankings.

I have updated the spread...Bills by 2

A big win against Fham. It is a big win because we beat a C+ team at their place by a big amount. Because of parity ( lots of teams bunched together due to similar data) when you beat a similar team you jump up in the ratings. The Bills went up a almost full letter grade by beating Fham. In the old days the only way you could move up a full letter grade in 1 game was to beat an elite team. Because of parity , the season isn't over till it's over. A few weeks ago, I posted in my Beginning of the Season review that our first goal was to get to a grade of B. We are now a B- team. That means we are close to being in a position to compete for the top 4 spots in the A10. If we can get to and stay in the B position, it means that we can compete with anyone in the league. Ideally between now and the end of the season we need to move up 2 more steps to B+ to give ourselves the best chance at the A10 tourney. Look, we are not going to win all the games in conference but neither is anyone else. The fact that we got to this level quickly shows we have the potential to win. We could take another big step up in the game against St. J. Let's see what we are up against... Game preview... St. J is a better team than Fordham...this will be a tougher game. Yet, the computer doesn't just say we could win the game...it says we are the favorite in this game. We also have something we haven't had so far this season ...some momentum...we are trending up. That trend started after the GC loss. While we lost that game in the final second on a freak play at their place, the computer saw that we were good enough to win. GC could be a top 4 team in the A10. St. J is rated about the same as GC in my system. This game will be like a 2nd chance at GC. Let's win it this time. Both offenses come in at C+... our defense has improved but is still lagging at C-. St. J comes in at B- on their defense. But we can make some of that up by pressuring them as they turn the ball over more than we do. We can also make up some ground on the boards....cut down on TOs and 2nd chances... and we can win. We have been playing short handed this season . Well now the Hawks have lost a couple of players and some of their depth. Let's look at the Card and see what's up.... Report Card.... Report Card change....5 up...0 dn...4 unchanged = +5...a refreshing change ...no down categories UP.....OFF....PPG.....FT%...DEF....FG%...PPG...Reb Dn....OFF...none....DEF...none ................SLU..................St.J.....................SLU......................St.J ...........................OFF...................................................DEF.......... PPG...........B-..................C+...........................C..........................B FG%..........B+..................C+..........................C+........................B+ 3P%...........B...................C+...........................D+.........................B FT%..........F.....................B+.................................................................. Reb............C...................C+............................D..........................C+ OFF Rebs = total Bills rebs...DEF Rebs = opp total reb Top 100 In The Nation SLU... PPG...Jimerson ....46th...up ..........Swope.........82nd....dn ..........Avila............76th...up 3PM......Jimerson...26th...up ..............Swope........49th...dn Reb....Anya...........19th...dn Asst...Swope...46th...up FG%...Anya.....91st...up St. J... Rebs...Fleming...34th Blks...Fleming...75th FT%...Brown ...37th ..........Reynolds ...62nd Injuries SLU Player Status/Updated Notes Amari McCottry G Ques Fri - Back - 1/1/25 McCottry is battling a back injury, and it is undetermined if he will suit up against Saint Joseph's Hawks on Friday. AJ Casey F Ques Fri - Undisclosed - 12/31/24 Casey is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will dress against Saint Joseph's Hawks on Friday. Josiah Dotzler G out of season - Knee - 11/26/24 Dotzler has been sidelined with a knee injury, and he is likely to miss the remainder of the season. St. J Player Status/Updated Notes Khaafiq Myers G Ques Fri - Knee - 12/31/24 Khaafiq is nursing with a knee injury, and it is unclear if he will dress against Saint Louis Billikens on Friday. Steven Solano C Out indefinitely - Personal - 12/31/24 Solano will miss an undetermined length of time with a personal matter, and there is no timetable for return. Keys to the game....The Bills need to play like they did against Fham...offense and defense for 40 min...wash, rinse, repeat and win. This game looks like a back and forth close contest all night. If we can shoot 73.3% from the charity stripe that should make up for our FT deficiency. WWN2D2W.....Target slash 49 / 36 / 73....Rebs even... win TOs by 1...either we hold them to 72 pts or we score a Shack Shake (80pts)....Hold Reynolds, Fleming and Brown to 39 pts....Do not give Brown and Reynolds more than 5 FTA. Bottom line..There will be no flappin...just high 5 slappin....we will receive our fame ...when we win the game.

And he only played 3 seasons at Davidson.

GJ climbs another 12 spots. He is still on pace to catch Stephen Curry. 66 Gibson Jimerson 360 2020 2025 Saint Louis Garrison Mathews 360 2016 2019 Lipscomb 68 Taquan Dean 359 2003 2006 Louisville Jaylen Minnett 359 2018 2022 Missouri State 70 Taylor Funk 358 2018 2023 Utah State DJ Horne 358 2020 2024 NC State Quincy Olivari 358 2020 2024 Xavier Donald Sims 358 2008 2011 Appalachian State 74 Antoine Agudio 357 2005 2008 Hofstra Noah Locke 357 2019 2023 Providence 76 Jon Elmore 356 2016 2019 Marshall Baylor Scheierman 356 2020 2024 Creighton

Back injury suffered in practice....He could have played today....benching was Coach's decision.