The Wiz

Here are the numbers as I see them on Verge..... 39.1% / 41.4 / 33.3/ 80.9......FG%/ 2P% / 3P% / FT%....F- / F- / C / A+ Even the 3P% is shaky....I had mentioned in an earlier post , in order to be at least a neutral factor on the Bills team, a player would have to shoot at least 34.3% from the arc (C+)...Neutral factor is determined by comparing team 2P% vs player's 3P% shooting. If any Bills player shoots less than 34.3% then the team is better off taking a 2pt shot. A 35.2% player (B ) is a positive addition from the arc for the Bills....ie there is a net gain over shooting 2s. Very nice FT shooter....A great player to have with a 2pt lead with 2 min left in the game. Verdict on Verge...He could be a nice player ...IF... he steps up his game. Shooting numbers coming into this year are weak except for FTs.

I have some concerns about Cook. The 38.4% from his second season was from the old, shorter line. The 35% from last year is not valid due to the small sample size....he only made 14 threes, not enough to assign a grade. In fact of the the 5 seasons , he played only 2 ( the 2nd and 3rd seasons) are considered large enough to make an evaluation. The computer is projecting for the coming season (assuming he makes at least 25 threes) he will shoot between 32.3% and 32.9%....which puts him at D+ . To be a value added player at SLU, a Billiken player needs to shoot at least 34.3% from the arc. ...35.2% or greater would be a big addition. Other concerns across the slash line....2P%....47.6%....B+ (2017-18)....42.9%...F+ (2018-19) ...................................................................FT%....69.6%....C- (2017-18).....65.1%...F (2018-19) Bottom line....Only 2 of 5 seasons generated enough data to make an evaluation of his offensive skills ...2nd year was good... 3rd year was not. Even his 2 years of 3 pt shooting from the shorter line showed a significant drop off from 38.4% (B+ ) (2nd season) to 34.8% (D+ )(3rd season) Given his projected 3pt production for the coming year and a volatile 2P% added to weak FT shooting....The Bills will have to think about this player for awhile before making a decision.

The simple answer is yes. Here is the long answer..... In the chart below, we will look at how 2 and 3Pt shots have been affected by moving the arc back. I particularly want to focus on 3 P shot value. 3P shots are more valuable shots than 2P shots. Exactly 50% more. The questions are... when is it worth taking the 3P shot ....who is taking it ...how has the extra distance affected the 3....and most importantly for this thread, who should we be looking for as a transfer. Let's look at the numbers....These will be team stats from all D1 schools....note that these numbers are pretty close to individual player numbers. First let's look at the elite teams....A+....3 seasons will be shown for all charts....The 2018-2019 season is the last season with the shorter 3P line. A+ teams .................2P%...........3P%......3P value ( 3P% x 1.5).......Difference (3P value-2P%) 2019.........55.7%..........39.1%............58.65............................+2.95% 2020........54.7%...........37.5..............56.25..............................+1.55 2021.........55.2..............37.7...............56.55..............................+1.35% C teams (average) 2019..........50.3.............34.2...............51.30..............................+1.0% 2020..........49.4..............33.3..............49.95...........................+0.55 2021..........49.7................33.5..............50.25...........................+0.55 The Bills 2019............46.6.............30.4................45.6.............................-1.0% 2020............49.7..............34.2................51.3.............................+1.6% 2021............51.3...............34.8................52.2............................+0.9 A few take aways....Again the answer to your question is ...yes , moving back the line did affect shooting. These charts show how much. Overall it cut the value of 3P shots by about half....exactly what the NCAA was trying to do. And the affect was pretty much across the board. You will note that the elite shooters value % were about 3x the values of average shooters...before and after the change. EXCEPT in the bizzarro world of the Billikens....When the NCAA moved the line back our numbers got better. Because our shooting was so bad in 2019 even though the line was closer for 3s, we should have only been shooting 2s because of the negative value. Another strange twist is our 3P% went up this year but our 3P value dropped because of better 2P shooting. That all means that last year it was more valuable to take a 3 than this year despite higher 3P stats this year. Finally, with these numbers in hand ....who should we be looking for in the transfer portal. The easy answer is take a 37.7%+ 3P shooter. The correct answer though would be to take at least a 35.2% guy who has made a minimum 25 shots this past season. That would give us true A+ value based on The Bills numbers. Bottom line.... It is still a good idea to shoot 3s as long as you are not terrible at it. For The Bills, the minimum shooter would have to be 34.3% and ideally at least 35.2%.

Good stuff.... I would make 1 footnote. When looking at individual player stats, sample size is important. You would not want to rate a player who has only taken and made 1 FG , one 3P and 1 FT and comes up with a score of 300.Here is what is generally considered a qualifying sample size in D1. 100 FGM 25 3PM 50 FTM So based on those sample sizes the only player qualifying is Perkins ....well above the 163.5 for an A+. Also, a number of Bills players qualify on individual parts of the slash without qualifying for the whole line. For instance , Jimerson's 39.4% from the arc gives him an A+ .

The 3 Pt foul shot is relatively rare when compared to all foul shots taken. I don't have any data that separates it out. Observationally, 3 P shooters tend to be better foul shooters....since 71.1 is C rated I would say 75% in general would be a good guess.

It was 180....RM use to say he would take a 180 player ....sight unseen. For a comparison ...on my system which rates all D1 players and then grades them on a curve ...an A+ player (D1) during the RM years while at SLU was 162.8. ( 47.6 / 39.1 / 76.1 ) which explains why he would take a player sight unseen. A 180 player would be like a AAA. Again for comparison ....adjusting for the new 3 pt line ...an A+ player in 2021 would be 163.5 ( 47.8 / 37.7 / 78 ). Overall in D1 ... FG% about the same.....3P% down and FT% up since the RM years. Btw...The upcoming season will be the 10th anniversary of RM's best and last full season as SLU's head coach.

https://sports.yahoo.com/sean-miller-firing-college-basketball-losing-ncaa-case-235343119.html

The 20-21 season will go down as one of the strangest in Bills history...and a season of lost opportunity...and that is saying a lot. We started the season off late. This gave us an additional 2 weeks of preseason hype. The great thing was ....we actually lived up to the hype...getting off to a great start with wins over LSU and NCSt and our only loss to Minn in what I consider one of the most difficult venues for an away team. Yes , those preseason forecasts of an A-10 championship and going to the Dance were on track . And then it happened.... 'Twas the night after Christmas And Covid appeared We went into lockdown And the season disappeared. And thus it became a tale of 2 teams....pre covid and post covid. The following report card looks a little different than usual ....The 1st and 3rd columns are the end of the season grades ...the 2nd and 4th columns are Christmas day when we were at our peak. It was around Xmas that I had us ranked at 18th ITN...AP had us at 23rd. While things deteriorated after Covid, not everything fell apart. If you look at the report card closely, you will see the offense fell off, especially the 3P shooting.... we went from one of the top teams ITN to just above average. If you just take the post Covid 3P shooting by itself , we graded out at D. But again , it wasn't all doom and gloom. We improved on defense ...across the board. This is what kept us alive post covid. Let's take a look at the report card. ........End of Season...........Xmas............................End...................................Xmas ..................................OFF............................................................DEF......................... PPG...............B+....................A-...............................A-........................................B+ FG%...............B+....................A................................B..........................................C+ 3Pt%..............B-.....................A+...16th ITN.............C.........................................C- FT%................C-....... .............B................................................................................. Reb.................A-....................C+...............................A+...14h ITN......................A+...9th ITN OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP....Offense.....Reb...............Defense .....PPG....FG%.....3P% Down...Offense......PPG.....FG%...3P%....FT%........Defense......none Top 100 ITN (In The Nation) Assts...Collins...10th ...dn Rebs...Goodwin....17th....dn Stls......Goodwin...29th....up FT%....Perkins...50th......up Double Double....Goodwin...8th ....dn A couple of notes.....Even though it was a down year for Jimerson...he still finished as an A+ player in 3P% (39.4%) and while not a top 100, the A+ is good for the top 5% of qualified shooters......Perkins needed 1 more 3PM and he would have been 95th ITN in PPG and an A+ 3 P shooter....he finishes at 101 and A for the year. ...As for the double double pace, had we played a full season, Goodwin would have lead the nation. The players in front of him all had more games to make their double doubles. Now let's look at the A-10 forecast.... .....................Season end.....preseason (11/24/20)........Difference St. B...............A-....................B..................................+2 SLU................B+....................B+.................................0 Rich................B+....................B+.................................0 VCU................B+....................B-..................................+2 Dav.................B+....................B.....................................+1 Day................B........................B+................................ -1 RI...................B.........................B....................................0 UMass..........B-........................C+..................................+1 Duq...............B-........................B....................................-1 GM................C+........................C+.................................0 St. J................C-.......................C-...................................0 LaS.................C-.........................C-.................................0 GW..................D+.........................C.................................-2 For...................D-.........................D...................................-1 79%......with the exact grade or within 1 step 100% within 2 steps Which is the goal for the preseason forecast...to be within 2 steps of the original forecast. Biggest surprise....St. B and VCU....biggest disappointment....GW And of course, we were right on the cusp of A- at the end of the season...actually almost between A- and B+ the difference between making the tournament or not. I described it in one of the season ending posts before selection Sunday as a coin flip and the Bills landed on the coin's edge...neither heads or tails. So what does this all mean? The biggest question I have heard this season is ....What would have happened if the Covid hadn't hit the Bills? So here is what I did.....I took our Xmas data and projected it to March.....Assume there was no Covid and assume the Bills didn't improve or get worse ....what would have happened? The first thing the computer does is to see who at the end of the season was most like the Xmas Bills......The answer is ...SD St U....What this means is after the season is over, which of the 346 teams would the Bills have been most likely to tie. From there it shows us finishing at 16th ITN....and a 6th round seed in the Dance. Of course, the irony here is the SDSU game was one of our canceled games this year and would have been a quality win. Finally to rub some salt into the wound ....we would have beaten the Aztecs by 4. But the sun will rise again tomorrow and soon I will be working on the 2021-2022 Bills preseason forecast . A forecast that will show the Bills sneaking up on the rest of the A-10 and the college basketball world with a strong season . To quote a famous passage.... "....And I heard him exclaim, as he shouted out clear, BILLIKENS WILL WIN It will be better next year."

It seems everyone agrees he needs to become more efficient including me. Here is a quote from the Oakland Post last month after a good night ( 5 of 10 from 3 range) against Youngstown St. “My teammates did a fantastic job getting the ball to me when I was holding in my sweet spot,” Williams said. “I decided to return the favor and try to make things happen and try to help us win.” That statement coupled with a 0.9 season asst /gm average indicated he was " the man" whether he was having a good or a bad night. I think with more options at SLU (others who can shoot 3s) his attempts will decrease (he will not have 277 3pt attempts ) and his assists and 3P% will go up( he will take better shots instead of all shots). If that happens, he will be a nice fit.

I agree he does have sweet stroke and ...and yes, Oakland sucked in his 2 yrs there....14-19 (8-10 conf) & 12-18 (10-10). The problem with that theory is that Clev St. was even worse than Oakland....13-21 (5-13) and yet that is where he had his good shooting percentage. ...Note: both teams are Horizon Conf....After his freshman year, he still had his sweet stroke ...but the shot had to travel 1 ft 1 3/4 inches farther. The numbers went down for the majority of players last year....and this year they came back a little.......same thing happened last time they moved the line back. It came back a little every year and then it was fully recovered in about 8-10 years... so the NCAA moved it back again last year. This time as last time some players dropped a little , some dropped a lot. Williams dropped a lot. ...another note ...while still down a lot from his good year , he came back more than the average player in 20-21. As mentioned above the computer is projecting him to continue to improve to 35.1%. If he does that or better , he will be a help to the team. If he continues to progress at the faster pace he did this year....he could show as high as 36.6% and then he would be a big help.

Here is my take on Williams.... First, let's look at some numbers.... 2021....these are all per gm...13.6pts....0.9 assts....0.8stls....1.5 TOs...1.5 reb Now let's look at some slashes....numbers and grades Remember the important numbers are the 3s as over 3/4 of his shots are 3s 2021.....34.5/33.9/78.7....F-/ C+ / A....28 gm...28min/gm 2020...34.3/ 32.3/ 85.5...F- /C- / A+...15 gm...38 min/gm 2019...40.5 / 40.8 / 76.7....F- / A / B+...31 gm...23 min/gm Now let's look at the 4 most significant games of 2021 for Oakland and Williams part in them... Mich 25th AP poll (at the time)....20/13/100....2-10/ 1-8 / 4-4....24 min...9 pts Purdue...1 min...no stats OK St...46/ 50 /40....10-22/ 10-20 / 2-5....37 min...32pts Mich St 4th AP poll...43/47/ 80....12-28/8-17/ 4-5....36 min....36 pts So what does all this mean? If you take away the OK St game and Mich St. games his 2 best games his 3P% drops to 31.7 or C+ to D. Which means for 26 games he was a below average shooter taking a lot of shots. If we look at the 3 yearly slash lines you see a dramatic drop off in 3P% after his freshman year. Why would that be? I think it is because the 3pt line was pushed back between his freshman and soph years. A lot of players saw there % drop...some have recovered... some have not. If we leave the 2 good games in ... his stats improve from C- to C+ ...Soph to Jr year...If I plug in a forecast for the coming year...it shows he improves to 35.1%...but that is a far cry from 40 % plus and it is an IF he improves...As I said above, some players can't make the extra distance adjustment. It is promising, he has had some games in the 40 and 50 percents. If he can develop a consistent shot this year, he could be a major contributor. Will he do it? That's why we play the games.

Wasn't me ...this is the first time I have been on a game thread...any game thread. The only reason, I looked now was because I was wondering why anyone would put up a 4 month old game thread.

I have Zags over UCLA by 11 Bay over Hou by 2

He finished 10th ITN in 3P%....His 3PM were around double the 9 players ahead of him....77% of his shots are 3s. If you are looking for a 3pt guy ....Here he is.

101 year old Sister Jean's pregame prayer before the Loyola / Illini game....Lifted right off The Wiz's computer model. “As we play the Fighting Illini, we ask for special help to overcome this team and get a great win,” Sister Jean said to her team before the game. “We hope to score early and make our opponents nervous. We have a great opportunity to convert rebounds as this team makes about 50% of layups and 30% of its 3 points. Our defense can take care of that…” I told her to mention turnovers but she was in a hurry to get to her seat.

The return of rust. After a 2 week layoff ...we played like it. But it wasn't just us...St. B also went cold in the 1st half in their loss. Had VCU played their game, they too would have been cold. Hmm.... what happened here. I believe the shortening of the season plus a 2 week layoff caused the coldness. Teams go cold after 2 weeks or more of layoffs We saw that in our 4 week layoff and you can see it repeated over and over through out Div 1. I place this blame directly on the A-10...by changing the schedule...shortening the season and moving the A-10 tourney up... they set up the A-10 to fail. Rant over ...let's see what happened in the game.... Bold print from original post in this thread.... makes some shots...48/36/72 ...This was pretty much the ball game. For the game we shot ...42/27/73...But look at the 1st half ...35/22/67...had we just shot anywhere close we would have made one more 3 and three more 2s....which would have taken us up to....48/33/67...or 9 more points...which would have made the final score ...Bills by 3. stop their 3 main guys and we win....Molinar, Stewart and Smith...hold them to 35pts. ...47pts...fail they can't shoot FTs...only Molinar and Stewart can shoot from the charity stripe ....This turned out to be true...as they both shot 88%...rest of the team shot 57%...The problem here is Molinar and Stewart took 78% of all the FT shots. Reb will be tough ...we need to be better than them even if only by 1 board ...Another miss as they out rebound us 35-32 We need to win the TO battle by 3 or 4 ...We had 4 less TOs...This kept us in the game. no more than 2 blocks for Ado ....No blks for Ado...This was a help too. Bottom line ....If you can't shoot...you can't win...We played good enough to win in the 2nd half ....not just on shooting numbers but we outscored them 42-41...Unfortunately, it takes 2 halves to win. After the Final 4 (Apr 6th), I will do a final report card and review on The Bills and the A-10.

On my model ....both Drake and the Bills were even and should have both been in. But on the Selection Committee bubble model, I will use their phraseology.....We pick the most "deserving" teams. I will leave it to you to decipher what that means.

First let me dispel a misnomer. You can't become a great team by playing all cupcakes. If you play all F teams you will lose your A rating. In my model , I always put a warning at the beginning of the year that the model is using predictive data rather than real data. By the time we get to the 8th game, it is all real data. By the 12th game there is enough data to remove a lot of the volatility. This year we started at B+ with a range of B- to A.... The 12th game this year was the KC game finishing out the OOC schedule...also unusual due to the late season start. After the KC game we were an A team with a range of A- to A+. An A - meant that we were almost assured of a Dance bid (90% chance...we drew the 10% Covid card) ...An A+ finish would have meant a good chance to be a sweet 16 team. The point is we were a good team...that got Covid and it affected our play. Studies have shown that up to 25% of college athletes can have long term symptoms (right now that is at least 2 months ) Another 25% can have lingering affects. That means we could have had 3-6 players who were affected....You have good days and bad days...it comes and goes....one thing that is not good with this syndrome is back to back games...think St. B. Not trying to make excuses ...just trying to provide some context. Bottom line...We were and still are a good team.....A- to A+. I am hoping if we can make a run through the NIT we can back to the A level and maybe even reach our potential A+ level. While we won't reach the 30 game mark this year a few more wins will build a nice base for a good start for next year and better media coverage too. We were not picked for the Dance....we need to show everyone that they made a mistake and that we are deserving....deserving not through some Selection Committee hocus pocus but deserving through winning.

I guess 50-50 meant 50% for a Dance bid and 50% for an NIT bid. It was looking like we were in on Fri night but the 2 bid stealers on Sat flipped the coin to the NIT. The last week was truly bubble hell. As I pointed out earlier, once we lost that game to St. B we were at 50-50 and at the mercy of the Committee. The Committee is about 85% metrics and 15% subjective. What that means is, about 10 teams every year fall into bubble hell ...68 x15%= 10 teams. And the metrics stop for those 10 teams. It has always been that way .... the cloud drops down for a week while The Committee decides "who is most deserving". Anyway, we have some more basketball to play. We come into this game as an A- team trending at B+....MsSt shows up with an overall grade of B+ trending at B (15-14...8-10). Two good defenses, close to equal...we are the better team on offense. This will be a low scoring game...70pts should win the game. A concern I have is that by the time we take the floor it will be nearly 2 weeks....We may have to shake off some rust. Let's see what we are dealing with .... ..........................SLU.............................MsSt.............................SLU...................................MsSt ..........................................OFF..........................................................................DEF............... PPG......................B+...............................D+................................A-........................................B+ FG%......................B+...............................B-................................B+........................................A 3Pt%.....................B-................................C-................................C+.......................................B FT%......................C-....... ........................F................................................................................. Reb.......................A-.................................A.................................A+...12th ITN........................B+ OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP....Offense...None..............Defense .......3P% Down...Offense....FG%...3P%...Reb.........Defense......none Top 100 ITN (In The Nation) Assts...Collins...9th ...up Rebs...Goodwin....13th....dn Stls......Goodwin...62nd....up FT%....Perkins...52nd......unch Double Double....Goodwin...7th ....dn Double Double %....Goodwin....2nd MsSt Reb....T Smith....56th FG%....T Smith...81st Blks...Ado...28th Injuries ....Strickland...3/6/21...Covid protocols A report card note...I have added a new category ...Double Double %...This stat doesn't appear anywhere...I decided this would show the true position of Goodwin. The NCAA uses just the raw numbers...ie total double doubles...Goodwin will always be at a disadvantage because he has played the fewest games. Doing it this way makes for a better comparison.....number of double double games divided by total games = 14 /20=70% which is a very high %.... good for 2nd place in Div 1. This game presents some unusual challenges ...They have 2 big men T Smith (6'11") their reb guy and Ado (6'10") their blocker and other reb guy. ...and yes they are both in at the same time. Needless to say they are a good rebounding team. On the plus side (for us) they can't shoot FTs...only Molinar and Stewart can shoot from the charity stripe. More good news ....this team is TO prone, we have got to bother them...if we do they will give us the ball. WWN2D2W.....MsSt is a 3 man team ...stop their 3 main guys and we win....Molinar, Stewart and Smith...hold them to 35pts. Don't let them jump out to an early big lead...control the game ...pressure them. We need to win the TO battle by 3 or 4 . Reb will be tough ...we need to be better than them even if only by 1 board....Don't let Ado turn into a fly swatter...that strategy didn't work well against St. B..... no more than 2 blocks for Ado. And finally, makes some shots...48/36/72 Bottom line...we are the better team especially on offense. We have to make them play our game...........If we do...it'll be round 2.

So here we are...Sunday...A lot has happened in a week but not much has changed....still 50-50 The model is showing 4 teams left...WSU, UtSt, Drake and the Bills....the last 4 ...2 will make it ...2 will not... Narrowing it down ......final 2...Drake and the Bills....50-50.

For the bubble watchers..... Wich over Cinn by 3 Hou over Mem by 7 SDSU over Ut St by 2 Cre over GT by 8 Colo over Ore St by 9 I think the team closest to us on the bubble is Ut St.

And more importantly ....who keeps the coin.

In a way, the Committee will skip those first 2 losses after Covid. While they do look at the "whole body of work" they put extra emphasis on the final 10 games...Starting with the St. B game in Feb that we won and leaving off the first 2 post Covid games ...Day & LaS. Had we played an "extra game" at the end, it would have removed the St. B win from our final 10 games category

I was going to write a wrap up to this thread I started a week ago but I have nothing new to add. I wrote this after the St. B game (which seems like a year ago)...a lot has happened in a week BUT nothing has changed. We are still 50-50 and it is up to the Selection Committee to determine our fate. The only change has been that the brackotologists have come around to thinking our selection chances are 50-50. You read it here first. So what does bubble hell look like?....#1... the final outcome is out of our control. #2 ...Brackotologists don't know the outcome...Yes they know the Zags are in...but so do you. They have no idea on the 100th round of voting to determine the 68th team what factor will be the decider. Could be something non basketball like...as in who has the largest TV market...or we need to fill a couple of extra spots due to Covid or maybe even simpler ...which team is closest to Indy or we like the color blue....#3.. You find yourself watching basketball games that you would never watch in a million years......Teams that are worse than the Bills AND you are actually rooting for one of them....#4 Time...time moves slower when you are in bubble hell....the week goes by like the final minute of a tied basketball game. Bottom line ...You will have an answer tomorrow. In the meantime , you can reread the original post below ...in slow motion while sipping a warm beer...part of bubble hell. Posted Sunday at 09:20 AM First. some breaking news this morning....3/7/21 ....This is from CBS/NCAAB site Bubble Watch: What Drake Needs To Do In The Atlantic 10 Tournament First rule is double check what you read. As for the Bills chances for a bid ...we have entered the NCAA Twilight Zone. which is a scary place with uncertain outcomes and somewhere you don't want to be. Our chances this morning are 50-50....Yesterday , I mentioned that a loss would drop us to 52%. The fact that we lost by 10+ pts dropped us to 50%. We are now the last 4 ...not the last 4 in or the last 4 out ...but 1 of the last 4...somewhere between the last 2 in and the last 2 out...Big Dance Twilight Zone. Our fate now is entirely out of our hands. While there still could be some movement, depending on if remaining teams we have played win or lose, the overall model show not much movement for us in the coming days. This puts us in the dreaded NCAA Selection committee cloud...that final 10% that is outside the NET model or any other metrics. Where the Selection committee goes into deep thought and comes up with "deserving " teams. So now we come to a quantum physics type problem.....To go back to the coin toss (50-50) analogy...We flipped the coin and it landed on neither heads nor tails...it landed on its edge....and will stay on its edge till next Sunday when the Selection Committee, tips the coin and judges who is worthy. So do we have a chance?....Stranger things have happened....think back to last Monday when 17 pt favorite Richmond lost at home to St. Joe to give us a double bye. You may have to get out your rabbit's foot and rub the Billiken's belly with it this week.

Yes by 1pt...but I would have played that game at any location because even though the numbers are skewed, they are a legitimate team and a win in a game like this would be good enough for a definite bid.